On November 2nd, 2010, California voters passed Proposition 20 allowing a commission composed of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 Independents to redraw my state's congressional districts. Previously, the state legislature drew the maps. In the House of Representatives, the representatives represent voters in districts the legislature draws. In recent years though, states such as Washington and California have chosen commissions to draw districts without political influence. In California, the commission traveled around the state to hear public comments from citizens like me and talk to groups such as MALDEF. On June 10th, 2011, the California Redistricting Commission released their first set of maps for California after hearing public comments from meetings such as this one on May 20th that I attended. The guidelines set for the commission were to draw districts that follow the VRA, stick to county boundaries as much as possible and preserve communities of interest. This analysis examines the first 17 congressional districts to examine whether they fit the communities of interest requirements and what happens to the districts' incumbents under the new lines. The commission has dismantled gerrymandered districts such as the 25th which connected Mono County in the High Desert with Santa Clarita in the Los Angeles suburbs. Still, I want to ensure that they have drawn all the districts so the districts respect communities of interest. Here is a link to the new maps of California:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-redistricting-map,0,6145644.htmlstory
The demographics and the voting percentages can be found here: http://redistrictingpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/CRC-First-Draft-Political-Data.pdf
A few notes: I will give district numbers according to the incumbents who live in the districts and/or which incumbent is most likely to run in the district due to factors such as the partisan makeup and familiarity with the constituents.
District 1 Mike Thompson (D) Santa Rosa/Napa/Yuba
Brown 54%, Whitman 38%
Obama 62%, McCain 34%
Demographics: 5% Asian, 29% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
I attended the meeting where the commission heard comments about Santa Rosa. A few meeting attendees said they wanted to combine the Napa area with the Central Valley but no one mentioned combining Santa Rosa with the Central Valley. Santa Rosa is more working class than the surrounding communities but it is not similar to Yuba County. Sonoma County does have agriculture but Santa Rosa is not very agricultural. Yuba County is very agricultural. Anyway, this district may be a "leftovers district" because these areas had no district for them so they were placed in the 1st district. I would suggest that the lst district should have similar lines to its current form. This would unite Yolo, Napa, Mendocino, Lake, Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. Although Yolo and a few of the North Coast Counties may be different, they are more similar than Santa Rosa and Yuba City because Yolo County has Davis with university liberals and Humboldt County has Humboldt State also with university liberals. It also keeps the theme of counties with small cities instead of one city with around 160,000 people (Santa Rosa) with more rural territory with a few small cities. Placing Santa Rosa with Marin County and the rest of Sonoma County keeps the theme of medium sized cities/suburbs with some rural areas mixed into the district. The lines help the Democrats though by placing Yuba County in this district because Yuba County could be used in another district to make it more Republican. Anyway, Santa Rosa and Napa County should keep this district in the Democratic column. Mike Thompson's home of St. Helena is located in this district so he may run here.
District 2 Wally Herger (R) Redding/Susanville/Chico
Brown 39%, Whitman 51%
Obama 44%, McCain 50%
Demographics: 14% Hispanic
Status: Likely Republican
The 2nd district combines the northern section of the current 2nd and 4th districts. It appears to follow communities of interest at first because it combines conservative small cities and towns across Northern California. The district contains both agricultural and mountain communities though with Susanville and Tehama County so the district does not completely follow communities of interest. Still, the communities are similar enough but I would prefer a district that contains the Valley and one that contains the high desert instead of containing both. As for a partisan standpoint, the district appears Republican but due to the inclusion of Nevada and Butte Counties, the Republican margin drops. Herger made a gaffe by calling a self described right wing terrorist a "Great American" so a strong Democrat in a very Democratic year will have a shot.
District 3 Dan Lungren (R) Sacramento suburbs
Brown 49%, Whitman 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Asian, 17% Hispanic
Status: Tossup
This district does follow communities of interest by staying in Sacramento County and representing Sacramento suburbs. I have no quibbles with this district from a COIs point of view. As for its partisan makeup, the district becomes a few points more Democratic with Obama's percentage rising from 49% to 51%. This will help Ami Bera (D) who will challenge Lungren in 2012. Bera is a strong fundraiser and lost by seven points to Lungren in 2010, a very Republican year and Lungren ran in a more Republican district.
District 4 Tom McClintock (R) Placer County/Sierras from Placer to Fresno
Brown 36%, Whitman 57%
Obama 41%, McCain 56%
Demographics: 4% Asian, 11% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican
This district contains Placer County, formerly part of McClintock's 4th district but it now contains counties in the Central Sierra instead of the southern Sierra. If McClintock ran here, he should have no trouble because the district is heavily Republican but there is a slight chance the representative of the 19th district Jeff Denham (R) will run here.
District 5 Doris Matsui (D) Sacramento/Elk Grove
Brown 66%, Whitman 29%
Obama 68%, McCain 30%
Demographics: 13% African American, 20% Asian, 26% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 5th district adds Elk Grove but besides this change, it remains similar to its current form. McClintock lives in this district but it is strongly Democratic so Matsui should have no trouble winning here. McClintock will probably run in the 4th district because it contains most of his current district.
District 6 Lynn Woolsey (D) Marin/North Coast/Del Norte County
Brown 64%, Whitman 30%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 16% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
I live in this district but I am opposed to its lines because I believe that Marin County has more in common with Sonoma County than Del Norte County on the Oregon border. Santa Rosa may be more labor based but it shares transportation corridors with the SMART train and closeness to Marin instead of Del Norte which is a 5 hour drive. The 6th district contains some of Sonoma County fortunately with Petaluma, the coast, Windsor,Healdsburg and Cloverdale. The district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative with Obama winning 71% of the vote under these lines so if Woolsey retires, the battle will be in the primary and three candidates from Marin will likely run. They are Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams (D), progressive activist Norman Solomon (D) and State Assembly member Jared Huffman (D). I attended a peace rally on June 18th in San Rafael actually that featured Norman Solomon, Susan Adams and Lynn Woolsey as speakers. At the rally, Woolsey stated that she wants people to write to the commission to argue for combining Marin and Sonoma in the same district. I hope you will join them.
As for Woolsey's replacement if she retires, Wesley Chesbro (D) a State Assembly member may run from the newly added North Coast. His Assembly district starts in Windsor and extends to Del Norte County on the Oregon border. Although the Marin County/Southern Sonoma and North Coast parts of the district have similar populations numbers, the three Marin candidates may split the Marin vote allowing Chesbro to win by carrying the North Coast. In 2008, a similar scenario appeared likely when the 3rd State Senate district opened and Joe Nation (D) from Marin faced SF candidates Mark Leno (D) and Carole Migden (D). The 3rd State Senate district represented Marin, southern Sonoma County and part of San Francisco. The majority of the district's population lived in San Francisco though. Nation hoped the two SF candidates would split the SF vote. Leno though campaigned hard in Marin, highlighting his liberal positions and lost Marin County by only 7 points, which allowed Leno to win the primary. One of the most important issues for North Coast voters is the environment so a Marin candidate may campaign heavily in the North Coast on the environment. Huffman and Solomon may fight to win the environmental voters while they each try to claim they are more environmentally friendly. This creates an opening for Supervisor Adams though. She can win by running by highlighting her work on three areas: family, health care and women's issues which are important issues for Marin's suburban voters while Huffman, Solomon and Chesbro try to outdo the others on the environment. She has worked on the environment too by helping the Marin County Open Space District and the St. Vincent’s/Silveira land but she should highlight her strong record on families, health care and women's issues while Solomon and Huffman fight for the environmental voters. This strategy could give her the opening she needs to win.
District 7 George Miller (D) Pinole/Solano County/Davis
Brown 60%, Whitman 34%
Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 11% African American, 16% Asian, 25% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 7th district moves northward and now contains all of Solano County as well as Davis in Yolo County. Garamendi may run in this district because it contains part of Sacramento County where Garamendi lives. Miller would probably win here though because the 7th district contains parts of his current district including Pinole, Vallejo and Vacaville.
District 8 Nancy Pelosi (D) San Francisco
Brown 78%, Whitman 17%
Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Demographics: 6% African American, 32% Asian, 15% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
This district grows a bit to eliminate population deviation but remains strongly Democratic.
District 9 Barbara Lee (D) Richmond/Berkeley/Oakland
Brown 85%, Whitman 10%
Obama 88%, McCain 9%
Demographics: 21% African American, 19% Asian, 23% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 9th district remains the most Democratic district in California by gaining part of Richmond. Also, the 9th district becomes more African American making it harder for a non African American candidate to defeat Lee in a primary.
District 10 John Garamendi (D) Walnut Creek/Concord/Inner Contra Costa County
Brown 59%, Whitman 37%
Obama 67%, McCain 31%
Demographics: 6% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 10th district contains communities of interest by representing higher income communities such as Walnut Creek, Lafayette and Danville in Contra Costa County. Although Garamendi does not live in the 10th district, he could run here because it contains most of his old district which represented the Walnut Creek area and Fairfield. Miller lives here but most of his current district is not in the 10th so it is unlikely he will run here.
District 11 Vacant Jerry McNerney (D)? Antioch/Oakley/Lodi/Stockton
Brown 52%, Whitman 42%
Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Demographics: 9% African American, 14% Asian, 37% Hispanic
Status: Likely Democratic
This district represents towns in eastern Contra Costa County including Antioch, Brentwood and Oakley. It also represents San Joaquin County north of Manteca which includes Democratic Stockton and Republican leaning Lodi. I believe these areas are communities of interest because they include medium sized cities near and in the Central part of the Central Valley. McNerney's current district was carved up under the new lines and he currently represents Brentwood and Lodi. The new lines place McNerney in a district with Rep. Pete Stark (D) so if Stark decides not to retire, McNerney may run here. A primary challenge from a Stockton Democrat is likely though. As for a Republican challenge, McNerney won in a 54% Obama district in a very Republican year so he should win in a 57% Obama district in a neutral year.
District 12 Jackie Speier (D) San Francisco/San Mateo/Redwood City
Brown 67%, Whitman 28%
Obama 74%, McCain 23%
Demographics: 30% Asian, 22% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
Besides gaining East Palo Alto and Half Moon Bay, the 12th district maintains similar lines. Speier should have no trouble winning in this solidly Democratic district.
District 13 Pete Stark (D) vs. Jerry McNerney (D) Hayward/San Leandro/Pleasanton
Brown 62%, Whitman 33%
Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Demographics: 8% African American, 27% Asian, 25% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 13th district undergoes some changes as it loses Fremont and gains Dublin, Pleasanton and Livermore over the hills. Although the district remains strongly Democratic, Jerry McNerney's home of Pleasanton is in the new 13th district. Stark represents more of the new 13th district than McNerney does but Stark is 80 years old so this new district may convince him to retire. If Stark retires, McNerney should not lose in the Republican primary but a Hayward or San Leandro Democrat may run in a primary. The Hayward/San Leandro area has a higher population than the Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore area does so McNerney will have to work hard for the Hayward/San Leandro area. As for communities of interest, Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore are separated by hills but they are in Alameda County and connected by Route 580 to the rest of the district.
District 14 Anna Eshoo (D) Palo Alto/Sunnyvale/Scotts Valley
Brown 62%, Whitman 33%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 31% Asian, 17% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 14th district stays mostly similar to its current form. It does become more of a Santa Clara County district as it loses all of Santa Cruz County except for Scotts Valley. It gains Santa Clara city and Cupertino. These areas are communities of interest by being high income communities in the Silicon Valley area. Scotts Valley though is closer to Santa Cruz than the rest of the district but Scotts Valley was most likely added for population deviation.
District 15 Mike Honda (D)? Campbell/San Jose/Gilroy
Brown 57%, Whitman 37%
Obama 66%, McCain 30%
Demographics: 18% Asian, 30% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
Although Honda lives in this district that represents southern Santa Clara County and the Campbell area, he may not choose to run here. The reason is that the nearby 16th district is heavily Asian and Honda may prefer a district with a larger Asian population. Zoe Lofgren (D) lives in the 16th district but Lofgren and Honda can move and switch districts. As for communities of interest, the district combines the most urban parts of San Jose with the more suburban and rural parts of Santa Clara County but due to population deviation, this could not be avoided.
District 16 Zoe Lofgren (D)? Fremont/Milpitas/San Jose
Brown 62%, Whitman 31%
Obama 69%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 44% Asian, 33% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
This district represents communities of interest by representing Fremont, Milpitas, and Alum Rock which have similar demographics of large Asian and Hispanic populations. Although Lofgren lives in the 16th district, she may decide to switch districts with Honda if Honda wants to represent a district with a large Asian population. They may both like the respective districts that contain their residencies so they may not move.
District 17 Sam Farr (D) Santa Cruz/Hollister/King City
Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 5% Asian, 49% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 17th district adds Corralitos and a few rural communities in Santa Cruz County but besides these additions, the 17th district does not change at all. It retains communities of interest by representing the two counties on Monterey Bay: Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties. The 17th also represents San Benito County which has farming communities similar to the farming communities in Monterey’s Salinas Valley. Obama’s 71% of the vote in this district should prevent a Republican candidate from winning but if the district’s Hispanic population continues to grow, Farr may face a serious primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate.
Saturday, June 25, 2011
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Minnesota Redistricting: The Democrats' Proposal
In Minnesota, the Democrats picked up the Governorship in 2010 with Mark Dayton (D) beating Tom Emmer (R). Despite performing well at a statewide level, the Democrats lost both houses of the state legislature. Besides giving Republicans the power to put initiatives before the voters such as marriage equality, the Democrats and Republicans have split control in redistricting. In the past though, the courts have drawn Minnesota's maps when the Democrats and Republicans had split control because the Republicans and Democrats could not agree on a plan. Although a court drawn map appears very likely, the map I drew here is a suggestion for the Democrats' proposal for Minnesota's congressional map. The map's main objectives were to weaken Chip Cravaack's (R) 8th district and weaken Erik Paulsen's (R) 3rd district. There are a few parts of this plan that may appeal to some Republicans though. For example, Michelle Bachmann's (R) 6th district is strengthened by the removal of Democratic leaning St. Cloud. The Republicans will probably not agree to this plan but this is a suggestion for what the Democrats should propose. This map contains 3 Safe Democratic seats, 1 Likely Democratic seat, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 1 Toss Up and 2 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here are the maps:
Minnesota
Minnesota's 1st District Tim Walz (D) Blue
Obama 182,461 51.8%, McCain 161,245 45.8%
Old District's Presidential Election 2008: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 52.1%, Republicans 47.9%
Demographics: 5.0% Hispanic, 89.0% White
Demographics 18+: 3.8% Hispanic, 91.3% White
Status: Lean Democratic
Although Tim Walz (D) won in 2010, a very Republican year in a swing district that voted for both Bush and Obama, I strengthened the 1st district a bit so a very strong Republican challenger in a very Republican year cannot unseat him. I removed five counties in the western part of the district which combined voted 52%-46% for McCain. To compensate for that population loss, I added Democratic leaning Rice County which voted 55%-42% for Obama and Democratic parts of Goodhue County. Although Walz is not completely safe in this district that contains Red Wing, Waseca and Rochester, he is much safer than before.
Twin Cities
Minnesota's 2nd District John Kline (R) Green
Obama 163,538 45.3%, McCain 190,484 52.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 44.6%, Republicans 55.4%
Demographics: 4.0% Hispanic, 87.6% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 90.0% White
Status: Safe Republican
Kline is a popular incumbent who is already safe in his district. He won in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 with 56% and 57% of the vote respectively. Under the new lines, his district becomes more Republican with the removal of Democratic leaning Rice County and Democratic leaning Eagan. The district gains all of heavily Republican McLeod County and Sibley Counties while gaining parts of Republican Meeker and Wright Counties. The addition of the Republican counties and the loss of the Democratic areas help make the 2nd district more Republican.
Minnesota's 3rd District Erik Paulsen (R) DarkMagenta
Obama 217,112 55.4%, McCain 168,438 42.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Average: Democrats 52.7%, Republicans 47.3%
Demographics: 7.9% African American, 6.6% Asian, 5.4% Hispanic, 77.4% White
Demographics 18+: 6.6% African American, 6.2% Asian, 4.2% Hispanic, 81.3% White
Status: Toss Up
Paulsen has won in the 52% Obama district in 2008 and 2010 but with the district now voting 55% for Obama, he may face a tougher race. The 3rd district loses conservative areas near Maple Grove and gains the Democratic leaning towns of St. Louis, Burnsville, Eagan and Cottage Grove. Although Paulsen's district contains most of his old territory, he may not be entrenched yet because he has represented the district for less than four years. The district's shift toward the Democrats could attract a strong candidate who can beat Paulsen. State Senator Ron Latz (DFL) from St. Louis and Ashwin Madia (DFL), Paulsen's 2008 challenger may consider running in this district.
Twin Cities Core
Minnesota's 4th District Betty McCollum (D) Red
Obama 232,896 63.3%, McCain 127,572 34.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 64%, McCain 34%
Average: Democrats 62.3%, Republicans 37.7%
Demographics: 9.2% African American, 9.7% Asian, 7.2% Hispanic, 70.6% White
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 8.0% Asian, 5.7% Hispanic, 76.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic
The 4th district mostly retains its current boundaries and expands to keep the population deviation equal. The 4th district gains Stillwater in Washington County which is Michelle Bachmann's (R) home. Bachmann will not win in a 63% Obama district so she should not challenge McCollum who will continue to have a strong Democratic district.
Minnesota's 5th District Keith Ellison (D) Yellow
Obama 262,448 71.0%, McCain 99,476 26.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 74%, McCain 24%
Average: Democrats 70.4%, Republicans 29.6%
Demographics: 14.7% African American, 5.6% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 66.7% White
Demographics 18+: 12.4% African American, 5.2% Asian, 6.7% Hispanic, 72.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic
The 5th district becomes less Democratic with the loss of the heavily Democratic suburb of St. Louis. To keep equal population deviation with other districts, the 5th gains marginal Coon Rapids. The 5th remains the most Democratic district in Minnesota though by containing of all Minneapolis.
Minnesota's 6th District Michelle Bachmann (R) Teal
Obama 153,831 42.6%, McCain 199,737 55.3%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Average: Democrats 43.6%, Republicans 56.4%
Demographics: 2.5% Asian, 91.4% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Asian, 93.0% White
Status: Safe Republican
Although the Democrats dislike Bachmann, she gains a safe district under this map. Her district gains more Republican areas in order to strengthen Democratic chances in the 3rd and 8th districts. The 6th district loses swing areas including St. Cloud, Coon Rapids and Stillwater (Bachmann's home.) The 6th district also gains Republican Isanti and Chisago Counties from the 8th district and Republican Maple Grove in Hennepin County from the 3rd district. These changes raise the McCain percentage in the 6th district from 53% to 55% and make the district more Republican.
Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson (D) Gray
Obama 162,485 47.5%, McCain 171,203 50.1%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 47%, McCain 50%
Average: Democrats 48.6%, Republicans 51.4%
Demographics: 4.2% Hispanic, 90.2% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 92.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic
The 7th district does not undergo major changes. It retains rural western Minnesota while losing a few Republican counties near the Minneapolis exurbs that have the potential to fill with conservative suburbanites from the Twin Cities area. The 7th district gains a couple of Republican counties from the 8th district in order to strengthen opportunities for Democrats there and the 7th gains a couple of counties on the Iowa border. Although the district voted for McCain, Peterson won in 2010 so if he can win in 2010, he should win in any year. Also, this district is Democratic at a local level so when Peterson retires, a Democratic candidate should have an advantage.
Minnesota's 8th District Chip Cravaack (R) SlateBlue
Obama 198,534 54.5%, McCain 157,205 43.1%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Average: Democrats 57.4%, Republicans 42.6%
Demographics: 2.7% Native American, 91.6% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Native American, 93.2% White
Status: Lean Democratic
Cravaack won the 8th district in an upset by beating James Oberstar (D) in the heavily Republican year of 2010 which hit Minnesota hard. Although Democrats won the Governorship, the margin was closer than expected and the Democrats lost control of the state legislature. Cravaack won in this traditionally Democratic district containing Duluth and the Iron Range by winning large margins in the fast growing Republican leaning counties such as Isanti and Chisago. I removed both of those counties and added Democratic leaning St. Cloud. These changes bring the Obama percentage to almost 55%. If 2012 is even a neutral year, a Democrat should win in this district.
Minnesota's 1st District Tim Walz (D) Blue
Obama 182,461 51.8%, McCain 161,245 45.8%
Old District's Presidential Election 2008: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 52.1%, Republicans 47.9%
Demographics: 5.0% Hispanic, 89.0% White
Demographics 18+: 3.8% Hispanic, 91.3% White
Status: Lean Democratic
Although Tim Walz (D) won in 2010, a very Republican year in a swing district that voted for both Bush and Obama, I strengthened the 1st district a bit so a very strong Republican challenger in a very Republican year cannot unseat him. I removed five counties in the western part of the district which combined voted 52%-46% for McCain. To compensate for that population loss, I added Democratic leaning Rice County which voted 55%-42% for Obama and Democratic parts of Goodhue County. Although Walz is not completely safe in this district that contains Red Wing, Waseca and Rochester, he is much safer than before.
Minnesota's 2nd District John Kline (R) Green
Obama 163,538 45.3%, McCain 190,484 52.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 44.6%, Republicans 55.4%
Demographics: 4.0% Hispanic, 87.6% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 90.0% White
Status: Safe Republican
Kline is a popular incumbent who is already safe in his district. He won in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 with 56% and 57% of the vote respectively. Under the new lines, his district becomes more Republican with the removal of Democratic leaning Rice County and Democratic leaning Eagan. The district gains all of heavily Republican McLeod County and Sibley Counties while gaining parts of Republican Meeker and Wright Counties. The addition of the Republican counties and the loss of the Democratic areas help make the 2nd district more Republican.
Minnesota's 3rd District Erik Paulsen (R) DarkMagenta
Obama 217,112 55.4%, McCain 168,438 42.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Average: Democrats 52.7%, Republicans 47.3%
Demographics: 7.9% African American, 6.6% Asian, 5.4% Hispanic, 77.4% White
Demographics 18+: 6.6% African American, 6.2% Asian, 4.2% Hispanic, 81.3% White
Status: Toss Up
Paulsen has won in the 52% Obama district in 2008 and 2010 but with the district now voting 55% for Obama, he may face a tougher race. The 3rd district loses conservative areas near Maple Grove and gains the Democratic leaning towns of St. Louis, Burnsville, Eagan and Cottage Grove. Although Paulsen's district contains most of his old territory, he may not be entrenched yet because he has represented the district for less than four years. The district's shift toward the Democrats could attract a strong candidate who can beat Paulsen. State Senator Ron Latz (DFL) from St. Louis and Ashwin Madia (DFL), Paulsen's 2008 challenger may consider running in this district.
Minnesota's 4th District Betty McCollum (D) Red
Obama 232,896 63.3%, McCain 127,572 34.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 64%, McCain 34%
Average: Democrats 62.3%, Republicans 37.7%
Demographics: 9.2% African American, 9.7% Asian, 7.2% Hispanic, 70.6% White
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 8.0% Asian, 5.7% Hispanic, 76.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic
The 4th district mostly retains its current boundaries and expands to keep the population deviation equal. The 4th district gains Stillwater in Washington County which is Michelle Bachmann's (R) home. Bachmann will not win in a 63% Obama district so she should not challenge McCollum who will continue to have a strong Democratic district.
Minnesota's 5th District Keith Ellison (D) Yellow
Obama 262,448 71.0%, McCain 99,476 26.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 74%, McCain 24%
Average: Democrats 70.4%, Republicans 29.6%
Demographics: 14.7% African American, 5.6% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 66.7% White
Demographics 18+: 12.4% African American, 5.2% Asian, 6.7% Hispanic, 72.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic
The 5th district becomes less Democratic with the loss of the heavily Democratic suburb of St. Louis. To keep equal population deviation with other districts, the 5th gains marginal Coon Rapids. The 5th remains the most Democratic district in Minnesota though by containing of all Minneapolis.
Minnesota's 6th District Michelle Bachmann (R) Teal
Obama 153,831 42.6%, McCain 199,737 55.3%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Average: Democrats 43.6%, Republicans 56.4%
Demographics: 2.5% Asian, 91.4% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Asian, 93.0% White
Status: Safe Republican
Although the Democrats dislike Bachmann, she gains a safe district under this map. Her district gains more Republican areas in order to strengthen Democratic chances in the 3rd and 8th districts. The 6th district loses swing areas including St. Cloud, Coon Rapids and Stillwater (Bachmann's home.) The 6th district also gains Republican Isanti and Chisago Counties from the 8th district and Republican Maple Grove in Hennepin County from the 3rd district. These changes raise the McCain percentage in the 6th district from 53% to 55% and make the district more Republican.
Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson (D) Gray
Obama 162,485 47.5%, McCain 171,203 50.1%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 47%, McCain 50%
Average: Democrats 48.6%, Republicans 51.4%
Demographics: 4.2% Hispanic, 90.2% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 92.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic
The 7th district does not undergo major changes. It retains rural western Minnesota while losing a few Republican counties near the Minneapolis exurbs that have the potential to fill with conservative suburbanites from the Twin Cities area. The 7th district gains a couple of Republican counties from the 8th district in order to strengthen opportunities for Democrats there and the 7th gains a couple of counties on the Iowa border. Although the district voted for McCain, Peterson won in 2010 so if he can win in 2010, he should win in any year. Also, this district is Democratic at a local level so when Peterson retires, a Democratic candidate should have an advantage.
Minnesota's 8th District Chip Cravaack (R) SlateBlue
Obama 198,534 54.5%, McCain 157,205 43.1%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Average: Democrats 57.4%, Republicans 42.6%
Demographics: 2.7% Native American, 91.6% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Native American, 93.2% White
Status: Lean Democratic
Cravaack won the 8th district in an upset by beating James Oberstar (D) in the heavily Republican year of 2010 which hit Minnesota hard. Although Democrats won the Governorship, the margin was closer than expected and the Democrats lost control of the state legislature. Cravaack won in this traditionally Democratic district containing Duluth and the Iron Range by winning large margins in the fast growing Republican leaning counties such as Isanti and Chisago. I removed both of those counties and added Democratic leaning St. Cloud. These changes bring the Obama percentage to almost 55%. If 2012 is even a neutral year, a Democrat should win in this district.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Thoughts from the California Redistricting Commission Meeting
As you may know, redistricting is one of my biggest passions and California's redistricting situation is no exception. I have written three separate posts revising and editing my proposed California redistricting maps and I have sent my most recent version to the commission. On May 20th, I decided to share my thoughts with them because the commission would be holding a public comment meeting in Santa Rosa. Although California is keeping all 53 of its congressional districts, slow population growth increases the likelihood that the Bay Area will lose a district. Some proposals say that Marin County should be combined with San Francisco and as a Marinite, I like San Francisco but we do not belong in the same district. We belong with Sonoma County instead.
As I drove north to Santa Rosa, I looked at the traffic on the highway. This further highlighted my argument that Marin County and Sonoma County were communities of interest in the way they shared commuting issues. San Francisco did not have these same issues. I was not surprised to hear three people mention the traffic in their public comments about how the similar traffic issues connect Marin County and Sonoma together.
We arrived smoothly and I became speaker #23 by being the 23rd person in line. While waiting on line, I talked to three women. They were all from Napa and one of them wanted to connect Napa and Sonoma together. Another though wanted Napa to be in a more agricultural district with Central Valley counties. She drew a map with Napa, Yolo, Glenn, Colusa and Lake Counties. It was handrawn so I said, "You should try Dave's Redistricting App (DRA). It gives you the correct population numbers and demographics." They said they would check it and I hope they like DRA as much as I do. They later introduced me to a few Republican activists from Napa who were very nice. I did not mention that I am a Democrat. A few minutes later, I told a Mendocino presenter about my recent redistricting plan. I told her about my proposal for the 1st district. She liked that I included Lake County, liked that I added Trinity but I am not too sure if she liked that I added Yolo County. I quickly explained that my 1st district was composed of tourist areas and university areas. Yolo County is a university town with UC Davis while Humboldt County has Humboldt State. Also, the liberals in Yolo County probably agree on more issues with North Coast liberals than conservative rural voters in the Central Valley or more moderate Democrats in Solano County.
When I arrived, there was a small line of people waiting for ticket numbers but as 6:00 drew closer, more people arrived and all the seats were filled by 6:00. At 6:00, the commission member presiding was Vincent P. Barabba, a registered Republican from Capitola. He has connections to Marin County though by serving on the now closed Hamilton Air Force Base.
As the speakers began, I believed there would be similar perspectives on Marin and Sonoma County staying united. The first speakers though were from Mendocino arguing for placing as much of Sonoma County as possible with Mendocino County. The Mendocino County speaker I spoke to advocated for not placing Redding and Mendocino County in the same district. She and one of her friends said that it takes around 3 hours on a day with no traffic to drive to Eureka from Redding. "We have nothing in common with Redding," they said. I agree because the Redding area and the Central Valley have an agriculture based economy while Mendocino/Humboldt Counties are based less around agriculture. Another Mendocino County speaker was a member of the Pomo tribe and wanted all the Pomo Lands in the same district. Not many people consider Native American tribal lands while redistricting in California (they do though in Arizona with the Navajo and the Hopi) so I was really glad the Pomo tribe member shared her concerns.
Also, a presenter stated that she wanted Sonoma and Napa to be combined into the same districts because she wanted the wine country to stay united. The Napa County Board of Supervisors wanted Napa to stay united too. I agree with keeping Napa united but it is possible the commission will place American Canyon in the same district as Vallejo because they are similar communities. Another speaker suggested that Napa should be combined with Central Valley counties such as Glenn and Colusa. The next speaker though advocated for not combining Central Valley counties north of Yolo with Napa County because the agricultural interests are different. Napa grows mostly wine while Colusa and Glenn grow other crops such as almonds.
When my number 23 was called, I felt a bit worried because many of the previous speakers advocated for uniting Sonoma County with Mendocino or Napa Counties. I was worried my comment would go over the two minute limit but I stood and began to read. I talked about how Marin and Sonoma are two counties with mostly upscale suburban communities and San Francisco is an urban area not even connected by land to Marin County. As I stopped, I turned around to see applause. My suggestion that these two "upscale suburban communities" should be combined was even quoted in the paper:
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20110520/ARTICLES/110529908?p=2&tc=pg
As the meeting progressed, more and more Marin speakers appeared, advocating for uniting Marin and Sonoma. I realized that many of the Marinites were stuck in the traffic that I faced while driving to Santa Rosa. A few of them mentioned it in their comments. I heard other great arguments from the speakers for uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. A firefighter discussed how the routes he drove to fight fires showed how Marin and Sonoma were connected. A Marin County resident stated how Marinites care about grass fires, not graffiti and that Marinites care about the Mt. Tamalpais Watershed, not Hetch Hetchy. A speaker from San Anselmo in Marin County who helped repair the damage of a flood that decimated local businesses said, "We would be more forceful if we joined forces with Sonoma County, a similar county." Another speaker asked the commission, "How many redwoods are in San Francisco?" Marin County has a reputation for its redwood forests and hiking trails on Mt. Tamalpais while San Francisco does not have much hiking. A speaker who lived in both Marin and San Francisco made a great argument by saying, "San Francisco has universities and public transportation. When I lived in San Francisco, I saw Marin as "the country." It reminded me of my Grandma's Farm outside of Boston." Also, I was not the only young person at the meeting. An eighth grader from Sonoma said she supported uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. Susan Adams, one of Marin's County Supervisors also gave a strong argument for uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. Judy House, a former city council member of San Anselmo gave a summary of the crowd's feeling by saying, “There is an overriding sense that Marin would like to be with Sonoma."
Overall, I really enjoyed going to the commission meeting. Although a few people supported combining Sonoma with Mendocino or Napa County, the crowd clearly favored combining Marin and Sonoma Counties. I hope that the commission sees the connections between Marin and Sonoma Counties and decides to draw a district similar to the current 6th district which combines Marin and Sonoma Counties.
As I drove north to Santa Rosa, I looked at the traffic on the highway. This further highlighted my argument that Marin County and Sonoma County were communities of interest in the way they shared commuting issues. San Francisco did not have these same issues. I was not surprised to hear three people mention the traffic in their public comments about how the similar traffic issues connect Marin County and Sonoma together.
We arrived smoothly and I became speaker #23 by being the 23rd person in line. While waiting on line, I talked to three women. They were all from Napa and one of them wanted to connect Napa and Sonoma together. Another though wanted Napa to be in a more agricultural district with Central Valley counties. She drew a map with Napa, Yolo, Glenn, Colusa and Lake Counties. It was handrawn so I said, "You should try Dave's Redistricting App (DRA). It gives you the correct population numbers and demographics." They said they would check it and I hope they like DRA as much as I do. They later introduced me to a few Republican activists from Napa who were very nice. I did not mention that I am a Democrat. A few minutes later, I told a Mendocino presenter about my recent redistricting plan. I told her about my proposal for the 1st district. She liked that I included Lake County, liked that I added Trinity but I am not too sure if she liked that I added Yolo County. I quickly explained that my 1st district was composed of tourist areas and university areas. Yolo County is a university town with UC Davis while Humboldt County has Humboldt State. Also, the liberals in Yolo County probably agree on more issues with North Coast liberals than conservative rural voters in the Central Valley or more moderate Democrats in Solano County.
When I arrived, there was a small line of people waiting for ticket numbers but as 6:00 drew closer, more people arrived and all the seats were filled by 6:00. At 6:00, the commission member presiding was Vincent P. Barabba, a registered Republican from Capitola. He has connections to Marin County though by serving on the now closed Hamilton Air Force Base.
As the speakers began, I believed there would be similar perspectives on Marin and Sonoma County staying united. The first speakers though were from Mendocino arguing for placing as much of Sonoma County as possible with Mendocino County. The Mendocino County speaker I spoke to advocated for not placing Redding and Mendocino County in the same district. She and one of her friends said that it takes around 3 hours on a day with no traffic to drive to Eureka from Redding. "We have nothing in common with Redding," they said. I agree because the Redding area and the Central Valley have an agriculture based economy while Mendocino/Humboldt Counties are based less around agriculture. Another Mendocino County speaker was a member of the Pomo tribe and wanted all the Pomo Lands in the same district. Not many people consider Native American tribal lands while redistricting in California (they do though in Arizona with the Navajo and the Hopi) so I was really glad the Pomo tribe member shared her concerns.
Also, a presenter stated that she wanted Sonoma and Napa to be combined into the same districts because she wanted the wine country to stay united. The Napa County Board of Supervisors wanted Napa to stay united too. I agree with keeping Napa united but it is possible the commission will place American Canyon in the same district as Vallejo because they are similar communities. Another speaker suggested that Napa should be combined with Central Valley counties such as Glenn and Colusa. The next speaker though advocated for not combining Central Valley counties north of Yolo with Napa County because the agricultural interests are different. Napa grows mostly wine while Colusa and Glenn grow other crops such as almonds.
When my number 23 was called, I felt a bit worried because many of the previous speakers advocated for uniting Sonoma County with Mendocino or Napa Counties. I was worried my comment would go over the two minute limit but I stood and began to read. I talked about how Marin and Sonoma are two counties with mostly upscale suburban communities and San Francisco is an urban area not even connected by land to Marin County. As I stopped, I turned around to see applause. My suggestion that these two "upscale suburban communities" should be combined was even quoted in the paper:
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20110520/ARTICLES/110529908?p=2&tc=pg
As the meeting progressed, more and more Marin speakers appeared, advocating for uniting Marin and Sonoma. I realized that many of the Marinites were stuck in the traffic that I faced while driving to Santa Rosa. A few of them mentioned it in their comments. I heard other great arguments from the speakers for uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. A firefighter discussed how the routes he drove to fight fires showed how Marin and Sonoma were connected. A Marin County resident stated how Marinites care about grass fires, not graffiti and that Marinites care about the Mt. Tamalpais Watershed, not Hetch Hetchy. A speaker from San Anselmo in Marin County who helped repair the damage of a flood that decimated local businesses said, "We would be more forceful if we joined forces with Sonoma County, a similar county." Another speaker asked the commission, "How many redwoods are in San Francisco?" Marin County has a reputation for its redwood forests and hiking trails on Mt. Tamalpais while San Francisco does not have much hiking. A speaker who lived in both Marin and San Francisco made a great argument by saying, "San Francisco has universities and public transportation. When I lived in San Francisco, I saw Marin as "the country." It reminded me of my Grandma's Farm outside of Boston." Also, I was not the only young person at the meeting. An eighth grader from Sonoma said she supported uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. Susan Adams, one of Marin's County Supervisors also gave a strong argument for uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. Judy House, a former city council member of San Anselmo gave a summary of the crowd's feeling by saying, “There is an overriding sense that Marin would like to be with Sonoma."
Overall, I really enjoyed going to the commission meeting. Although a few people supported combining Sonoma with Mendocino or Napa County, the crowd clearly favored combining Marin and Sonoma Counties. I hope that the commission sees the connections between Marin and Sonoma Counties and decides to draw a district similar to the current 6th district which combines Marin and Sonoma Counties.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
California Redistricting: The Democrat's Proposal (Updated with Demographics)
Before November 2nd 2010, it appeared that Democrats would control the redistricting process because most polls suggested Jerry Brown (D) would become Governor. Brown did win and the Democrats retained their majorities in the state legislature. They, however, lost control of the redistricting process. The voters passed Proposition 20 which transferred the redistricting power from the state legislature to a 14 member commission compromised of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 independents. The commission must draw districts according to communities of interest which are similar communities based on the residents' ethnicities, location and income. Drawing districts according to the VRA is more important though on the priority list. Also, at least three members of each party must approve the map before it takes effect. Even if Democrats do not control redistricting the way they used to, they will certainly propose some maps to the committee that will protect Democratic incumbents and eliminate a few Republicans who are in gerrymandered districts. Although the Democrats crafted the 2002 map as a bipartisan plan, the lines resemble a Republican gerrymander. For example, San Bernardino and Riverside County both cast narrow majorities for Obama and have about 5 districts between them. A Democrat only holds one of those districts. The Democrat is Joe Baca (D) but his district does not even touch Riverside County. So Riverside County which voted for Obama and has enough people for nearly three districts does not even have a Democratic representative. Also, Orange County voted for McCain by three points and has around 3 million people, enough population for almost five districts. How many Democratic districts cover at least part of Orange County? The answer is only one: the 47th district represented by Loretta Sanchez (D) which covers Santa Ana and Anaheim. Although Democrats worry that the independent commission will carve up districts leaving Democratic incumbents with no familiar territory, Democrats should not be too worried. The commission likely will weaken many Republicans too.
This leads to why I am drawing this map and it is because I am predicting what the Democrats will propose to the commission. Although the commission makes the final decision, both parties will draw up proposals suggesting what the commission should do. For the Democrats, their proposal needs to protect their incumbents, create more opportunities in the Inland Empire and Central Valley while not drawing convoluted lines. Also, my proposal respects the VRA which requires a certain number of minority majority districts in order to ensure minorities are not underrepresented in the House. For example, I made the 15th and 32nd districts with Asian representatives more Asian. I also created three new districts designed to elect Hispanics because California's Hispanic population is growing rapidly and will need representation. Also, California's Hispanic population is 36% and there are only 8 Hispanic representatives in 53 congressional districts. The problem is that Hispanic turnout rates are low so districts with a Hispanic percentage of 51% will not have enough Hispanic voters to elect a Hispanic representative. If the district is Democratic but has Republican white voters though, there can be enough Hispanics in the Democratic primary to elect a Hispanic candidate. Some of my districts have low Hispanic populations but the population numbers are from ten years ago so the Hispanic population should be larger. I also created 29 Safe Democratic seats, three Likely Democratic seats, five lean Democratic seats, three Toss Up seats, one Lean Republican seat, two Likely Republican seats (these could be competitive in a few years if demographic trends continue) and ten Safe Republican seats. I wanted to create more seats for the Democrats but I did not want convoluted lines because the commission will reject those. Anyway, here are some helpful links and the maps:
A side note: this is an updated version of the California map I drew in February. This map includes updated demographic information as well as some different lines. The old version of my map can be found here: http://frogandturtle.blogspot.com/2011/02/california-redistricting.html
Current maps of California's congressional districts: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/congress.html
A few notes: if you want a better picture of the maps, click on them. Old Demographics means the demographics of the old districts. "Change" represents how the partisan makeup of the district is compared to the old lines.
Northern California
California's 1st Congressional District Mike Thompson (D) Blue
Obama 194,639 64%, McCain 99,977 33%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 23.7% Hispanic, 62.9% White
Demographics VAP: 6.4% Asian, 19.8% Hispanic, 67.3% White
Old Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 71% White
Communities of Interest: Eureka, Clear Lake, Napa
Status: Safe Democratic
Mike Thompson's district becomes a few points more Republican with the loss of some Sonoma County towns and the addition of Republican Colusa and Glenn Counties. Those changes are not significant population wise and the Democratic counties of Yolo, Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino and Humboldt keep this district safe for Thompson.
California's 2nd Congressional District Wally Herger (R) Green
Obama 121,124 42%, McCain 161,724 56%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 4.3% Asian, 17.1% Hispanic, 71.9% White
Demographics VAP: 4.1% Asian, 14.1% Hispanic, 75.8% White
Old Demographics: 14% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Redding, Chico, Yuba City
Status: Safe Republican
The district undergoes some geographical changes but the politics and the demographics of the district do not change much. The district loses Trinity, Colusa and Glenn Counties to the 1st but picks up Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties to the east. Those counties make the district a bit more Republican but it was already safe for its representative who called a right wing terrorist a "Great American." It also remains compact.
Sacramento Area
California's 3rd Congressional District Dan Lungren (R) Purple
Obama 144,966 52%, McCain 131,111 47%
Change: Obama +5
Demographics: 7.2% African American, 10.2% Asian, 18.2% Hispanic, 59.5% White
Demographics VAP: 6.9% African American, 10.2% Asian, 15.3% Hispanic, 63.7% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 74% White
Communities of Interest: Citrus Heights, Folsom
Status: Toss Up
In 2008 and 2010, Democrats believed they had the candidate to beat Lungren but he held onto his seat. He won by seven points in 2010 against Ami Bera (D), a strong candidate in a strong Republican year. 2012 should be a neutral year at best for Republicans. Bera announced that he will run for Lungren's seat so Democrats already have a strong candidate. The district is more Democratic now because the district is entirely in Sacramento County. It used to contain some Republican leaning rural counties but by losing those, the district becomes more Democratic.
California's 4th Congressional District Tom McClintock (R) Red
Obama 154,066 45%, McCain 184,422 53%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 13.3% Hispanic, 76.8% White
Old Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 83% White
Demographics VAP: 4.6% Asain, 11.0% Hispanic, 80.1% White
Communities of Interest: Roseville, Auburn, Nevada City
Status: Safe Republican
The district appears to undergo major changes by losing some northern rural counties but it actually keeps most of its residents. It becomes more of a Sacramento suburban district than a northern rural district though. It picks up rural parts of Yuba County and retains suburban Placer and El Dorado Counties while losing heavily Republican counties in northeast California. McClintock had a tough race here in 2008 and although the district becomes two points more Democratic, McClintock should be safe.
California's 5th Congressional District Doris Matsui (D) Yellow
Obama 170,015 67%, McCain 80,493 32%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 12.6% African American, 19.8% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 37.2% White
Demographics VAP: 12.2% African American, 20.1% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 41.9% White
Old Demographics: 14% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Elk Grove
Status: Safe Democratic
Matsui's district remains similar to its current configuration. It retains heavily minority and Democratic parts of Sacramento County. The only significant difference is that I extended her district up to the northern Sacramento County border to pick up some Republican areas to weaken the 3rd. Matsui's district is completely safe for her and she is too popular for a successful primary challenge.
Bay Area
California's 6th Congressional District Lynn Woolsey (D) Teal
Obama 266,842 76%, McCain 79,189 23%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 68.5% White
Old Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Novato, San Rafael, Santa Rosa
Status: Safe Democratic
Besides losing the Mendocino County border and picking up the Sonoma Valley, the 6th district does not change much. It remains very white and heavily Democratic. The commission's new map may look different though regarding the 6th district. There are proposals to eliminate the 6th district by putting Sonoma in the 1st district and Marin County in the 8th district. This violates communities of interest though because Marin County and Sonoma Counties are upscale suburban communities while San Francisco is a dense urban area. Also, the commission must try not to break county lines and in this situation, the 8th district crosses the SF/Marin County line although San Francisco has more than enough people for one district. Also, a district combining Marin and San Francisco relies on water contiguity which many critics view as unfair. Also, putting Santa Rosa in the 1st district violates communities of interest for that district too because Santa Rosa is an urban community which is different from the current 1st district which is filled with small cities and rural areas. One may argue that the Sonoma County district should extend east to make it more urban but population purposes would cause Vallejo to go into the same district as Santa Rosa. Vallejo is a lower income area and has more similar economic interests and connections with the East Bay than Santa Rosa. Therefore, it appears that the only option to satisfy communities of interest is to keep the 6th district as an upscale suburban district, not a district that combines urban and suburban communities that are not even connected by land. Also, it is important to give the 1st district similar lines to the one on my map because it will retain its characteristic of rural areas and small cities.
California's 7th Congressional district George Miller (D) Gray
Obama 205,912 66%, McCain 100,000 32%
Change: McCain +11
Demographics: 5.9% African American, 16.2% Asian, 19.9% Hispanic, 53.7% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% African American, 16.4% Asian, 17.3% Hispanic, 57.4% White
Old Demographics: 17% African American, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Pinole, Martinez, Danville
Status: Safe Democratic
Miller's district becomes less Democratic by losing all of its territory except for Pinole, Concord, Pittsburg and Martinez (his home.) I had to move Richmond out of his district to boost the African American population of the 9th district. I do not know if Miller will like running under these new lines that now include Lafayette, Walnut Creek and Danville. Even though this is the Democrats' proposal, they will have to make the lines compact for the commission to even consider the proposal. Anyway, this district is too Democratic for a Republican to win because Obama won 66% here which is higher than his statewide average of 61%. Also, no other representative lives in this district so Miller should not face a primary challenge.
San Francisco/Oakland
California's 8th Congressional District Nancy Pelosi (D) Slate Blue
Obama 282,175 85%, McCain 42,836 13%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 6.4% African American, 16.3% Hispanic, 30.9% Asian, 42.6% White
Demographics 18+: 6.2% African American, 15.0% Hispanic, 30.8% Asian, 45.0% White
Old Demographics: 9% African American, 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: San Francisco
Status: Safe Democratic
Pelosi's district picks up a few precincts in the eastern Sunset District and her district extends to the 19th Ave's eastern border. Besides this change, her district retains its current form.
California's 9th District Barbara Lee (D) Periwinkle
Obama 281,944 90%, McCain 24,082 8%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 21.8% African American, 17.6% Asian, 25.2% Hispanic, 31.0% White
Demographics 18+: 21.7% African American, 18.8% Asian, 21.6% Hispanic, 34.3% White
Old Demographics: 26% African American, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 35% White
Communities of Interest: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland
Status: Safe Democratic
Lee's district does change a bit as it loses a few Hispanic neighborhoods in South Oakland. Her district's population growth was minimal so it needed to pick up people. It moved north into Contra Costa County to pick up Richmond with a large African American population. Although Lee should be reelected, she will want a high African American population. Her district will get 2 points more African American and it will be even more Democratic.
California's 10th Congressional District John Garamendi (D) Deepink
Obama 163,340 60%, McCain 106,442 39%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 11.2% African American, 11.9% Asian, 26.9% Hispanic, 44.9% White
Demographics 18+: 11.2% African American, 12.6% Asian, 23.0% Hispanic, 49.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 65% White
Communities of Interest: Vallejo, Fairfield, Pittsburg
Status: Safe Democratic
Garamendi's district picks up Vallejo in Solano County. It loses Livermore which voted for Bush in 2004, and the 10th district loses the Walnut Creek area. To compensate for the loss of those areas, the 10th district picks up all of Solano County including heavily Democratic Vallejo. The 10th district also picks up more Central Valley territory because the population growth in the Bay Area is slower than the rest of the state and I needed to push the districts further east to make sure the districts had equal populations. Picking up Lodi to protect McNerney in the 11th district who won by only one point in 2010 does make the 10th district a couple points more Republican. A 60% Obama percentage is high enough to keep Garamendi safe though. Also, Obama did well in the Walnut Creek area formerly in the 10th district but many of the voters there can swing to Republicans. The Democrats in Vallejo which I moved into the 10th district usually stick with the Democratic ticket though.
California's 11th District Jerry McNerney (D) Chartreuse
Obama 117,947 56% McCain 87,870 42%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 7.4% African American, 14.4% Asian, 38.2% Hispanic, 36.0% White
Demographics 18+: 7.3% African American, 14.8% Asian, 33.5% Hispanic, 41.1% White
Old Demographics: 3% African American, 9% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Tracy, Stockton, Modesto
Status: Lean Democratic
At a first glance, it appears that McNerney's district becomes more Republican because it loses all of its territory in Democratic Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties. McNerney's district becomes four points more Democratic though with the addition of Democratic parts of Stockton, the removal of Lodi and the addition of Democratic parts of Modesto. I did not want to county split here but for population purposes, I had to do so. McNerney should still face challenges but if he could survive in a more Republican district in a very Republican year, he should win in this new district. Also, San Joaquin County which makes up a large portion of his district is trending Democratic quickly as Bay Area residents move into the Central Valley.
California's 12th District Jackie Speier (D) Cornflower
Obama 221,611 74%, McCain 71,441 24%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 32.2% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 40.3% White
Demographics 18+: 33.0% Asian, 19.3% Hispanic, 42.7% White
Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: South San Francisco, Redwood City, Half Moon Bay
Status: Safe Democratic
Speier's district shifts a bit south. She loses a few neighborhoods in SF but picks up some Hispanic neighborhoods in Redwood City. She also picks up Half Moon Bay and all of rural San Mateo County. These changes do not significantly alter her Democratic district.
California's 13th District Pete Stark (D) Darksalmon
Obama 192,824 70%, McCain 68,594 28%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 7.8% African American, 25.3% Asian, 25.3% Hispanic, 37.1% White
Demographics 18+: 7.7% African American, 22.4% Hispanic, 25.8% Asian, 40.6% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 28% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 38% White
Communities of Interest: San Leandro, Fremont, Pleasanton
Status: Safe Democratic
Stark's district gets a few points more Republican with the addition of Dublin, Pleasanton and Livermore. I did not want to connect Stark's district with those areas because they are not very similar communities but the 13th district follows Route 580 to connect them. Anyway, the district still stays heavily Democratic and safe for Stark.
San Jose
California's 14th District Anna Eshoo (D) Olive
Obama 218,686 71% McCain 82,344 27%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 23.5% Asian, 18.5% Hispanic, 51.6% White
Demographics 18+: 23.7% Asian, 16.2% Hispanic, 54.7% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 59% White
Communities of Interest: Mountain View, Saratoga, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic
Eshoo's district becomes a few points more Republican by losing northern Santa Cruz County and picking up western San Jose. Yes, I understand that Tom Campbell (R) held a district in the 1990's similar to this one. The 14th district has trended Democratic rapidly though in the last ten years and Obama won 71% of the vote here. Eshoo should have absolutely no worries, even if Campbell decided to run.
California's 15th District Mike Honda (D) Darkorange
Obama 171,018 70% McCain 68,779 28%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 50.5% Asian, 16.6% Hispanic, 26.3% White
Demographics 18+: 50.0% Asian, 14.9% Hispanic, 29.5% White
Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 47% White
Communities of Interest: Fremont, Cupertino, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic
This district becomes more Asian by losing white neighborhoods in San Jose while picking up Asian neighborhoods in Fremont and Sunnyvale. It also picks up a few Asian neighborhoods south of Milpitas. These changes make the district an Asian majority district. The commission has 5 Asians so I expect they will create some districts that will elect Asians such as this one. Honda is Asian but the Asian population in this district increases the chance that his successor will be too. If current population trends continue, his district will have an even larger Asian population as the decade progresses.
California's 16th Congressional District Zoe Lofgren (D) Lime
Obama 164,245 69%, McCain 69,832 29%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 26.1% Asian, 40.9% Hispanic, 27.1% White
Demographics 18+: 27.3% Asian, 36.7% Hispanic, 30.6% White
Old Demographics: 23% Asian, 38% Hispanic, 31% White
Communities of Interest: San Jose, Gilroy, Morgan Hill
Status: Safe Democratic
Lofgren's district does not become less Democratic or Republican but an issue arises. Her district gets a few points more Hispanic and with her district's growing Hispanic population, she may face a primary challenge from a Hispanic. Lofgren should win though because she is familiar with most of the 16th district's voters and the Hispanic population is still not high enough to unseat her. If she retires in a few years, Hispanics will have a big chance to elect a representative here. Anyway, she gets new territory in Hispanic Gilroy and Morgan Hill. Her district keeps communities of interest though by staying within the county boundaries.
Central California
California's 17th District Sam Farr (D) Darkslateblue
Obama 192,791 71%, McCain 71,552 26%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 5.3% Asian, 45.5% Hispanic, 44.3% White
Demographics 18+: 5.9% Asian, 39.5% Hispanic, 49.9% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Cruz, Monterey
Status: Safe Democratic
Farr's district becomes a few points more Republican but remains very safe. It is still a compact district containing all of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties while taking a small slice of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses all of agricultural San Benito County to the agricultural 18th district. The 17th picks up Republican leaning Paso Robles because it is in the Salinas Valley which is a community of interest in Monterey County. This also keeps Paso Robles out of the 23rd district.
California's 18th District Dennis Cardoza (D) Yellow
Obama 104,557 56%, McCain 78,223 42%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 5.4% Asian, 57.3% Hispanic, 32.0% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 51.8% Hispanic, 37.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 42% Hispanic, 39% White
Communities of Interest: Hollister, Modesto, Merced
Status: Lean Democratic
Cardoza's district becomes more Republican because the commission will want it to have compact lines. Thus, it will lose the finger into heavily Democratic Stockton. To compensate for the loss, the 18th district will go over the Diablo Range through Pacheco Pass to pick up San Benito County which is mostly agricultural like the rest of the district and leans Democratic. The 18th district also gains Gilroy which is in Santa Clara County but has an agricultural based economy too. The district splits Madera County with the 19th which breaks county lines but western Madera is very similar to the rest of the district so it is a community of interest. As for Cardoza himself, his district is more Republican because he loses his stronghold of Stockton. The district is growing Democratic though, he won strongly in 2010, a very Republican year and the majority of the voting age population is Hispanic. If current population trends continue, the Hispanic population will continue to grow.
California's 19th District Jeff Denham (R) Yellow Green
Obama 100,331 42%, McCain 136,040 56%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 33.8% Hispanic, 57.8% White
Demographics 18+: 28.2% Hispanic, 63.4% White
Old Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 59% White
Communities of Interest: Turlock, Mammoth Lakes, Barstow
Status: Safe Republican
The Sierras and the Mojave Desert used to be diced up between the Los Angeles centered 25th district and the formerly Central Valley centered 19th district so they were not united in one district. They are now part of the new 19th which is probably the most rural district in California now. The 19th loses all of Fresno and the parts of the Central Valley it has are mostly rural and white. Rural San Bernadino County may be far from the northern part of the district but these areas have similar residents. As for Denham, his district was already safe so he should be fine.
Fresno Area
California's 20th District Jim Costa (D) Pink
Obama 93,033 58%, McCain 63,673 40%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 5.5% African American, 8.5% Asian, 63.5% Hispanic, 20.3% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 8.5% Asian, 58.8% Hispanic, 24.6% White
Old Demographics: 7% African American, 6% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Fresno, Delano
Status: Likely Democratic
Costa faced a tough reelection bid in 2010 and I would have strengthened his position but I wanted a district that the commission would approve due to compactness. His district gets a couple of points more Republican but he loses part of heavily Republican Kings County which has more in common with Tulare County which is partly in the 21st district. In his close 2010 reelection bid, Costa lost Kings County by more than 20 points. Costa gains more of his base in Fresno County which he won overwhemingly. His district has a minority population of 75% 18+. Nevertheless, if Costa can win in 2010, he can win any year.
California's 21st District Devin Nunes (R) Maroon
Obama 91,225 41%, McCain 129,299 58%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 6.8% Asian, 43.3% Hispanic, 43.2% White
Demographics 18+: 6.9% Asian, 38.0% Hispanic, 48.7% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Clovis, Visalia, Hanford
Status: Safe Republican
With the addition of half of Kings County, the 21st district becomes more Republican. While it loses some Republican parts of Tulare County such as Porterville, it also loses some Democratic parts of Fresno County. Although the district looks less compact than its original form, it still contains similar communities.
California's 22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Salmon
Obama 80,970 40%, McCain 120,213 59%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 5.4% African American, 47.2% Hispanic, 40.8% White
Demographics 18+: 5.3% African American, 41.9% Hispanic, 46.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 21% Hispanic, 67% White
Communities of Interest: Shafter, Bakersfield, California City
Status: Safe Republican
The district loses portions of Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo Counties. It is now completely in Kern County and it picks up some Democratic neighborhoods in Bakersfield from the 20th district. The 22nd district also loses Ridgecrest for population purposes. These changes make the 22nd more Democratic but it is still strongly Republican and more compact.
California's 23rd District Lois Capps (D) Aquamarine
Obama 174,392 58%, McCain 122,791 40%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 4.1% Asian, 34.9% Hispanic, 56.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.5% Asian, 29.7% Hispanic, 61.2% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura
Status: Likely Democratic
Santa Barbara, a liberal university town with an economy based largely on tourism is not too similar to northern Santa Barbara County which is conservative and has an economy based on the Vanderburg Air Force Base and agriculture. Northern Santa Barbara County has tried to split from Santa Barbara County for those reasons. The 23rd district will unite them though because compactness is important. The 23rd also picks up all of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses heavily Democratic Oxnard which brings the McCain percentage up to 40%. In the 1990s, the district was competitive with similar lines but this area has trended Democratic since then so I expect Capps will retain her seat.
California's 24th District Elton Gallegly (R) Indigo
Obama 160,848 55%, McCain 124,572 43%
Change: Obama +8
Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 42.4% Hispanic, 46.7% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% Asian, 37.8% Hispanic, 51.3% White
ld Demographics: 4% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 69% White
Communities of Interest: Oxnard, Moorpark, Simi Valley
Status: Tossup
This district loses the conservative parts of Santa Barbara County and picks up heavily Democratic Oxnard instead. This increases the Obama percentage in the district to 55%. Gallegly is an entrenched incumbent but he is not familiar with the voters in Oxnard. Gallegly could win by winning big margins in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. Gallegly keeps hinting he wants to retire so these new lines may convince him to do so. If he leaves, the seats will be hotly contested but I expect the Democrat to win by a few points. A possible candidate is State Senator Fran Pavley (D) who's State Senate district includes Oxnard. If Gallegy retires, State Senator Tony Strickland (R) may run here too.
West LA
California's 25th District Buck McKeon (R) Pale Violet Red
Obama 121,333 49% McCain 121,347 49%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 10.1% African American, 6.5% Asian, 37.6% Hispanic, 42.5% White
Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 7.0% Asian, 33.7% Hispanic, 47.1% White
Old Demographics: 8% African American, 4% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 57% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Victorville
Status: Likely Republican
This district shrinks as it loses rural areas in the desert and eastern Sierras. It still resembles a tossup because Obama barely won it but this district is strongly Republican. Kerry won only 40% here and McKeon is highly popular. When he retires, a strong Democrat against a weak Republican can win here but although this area is trending Democratic, it is still Republican at a local level.
California's 26th District Darrell Issa (R) Gray
Obama 136,674 50%, McCain 131,713 48%
Change: Obama +8 (the old 49th District.)
Demographics: 7.0% Asian, 31.5% Hispanic, 55.4% White
Demographics 18+: 7.4% Asian, 27.1% Hispanic, 60.3% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 4% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 57% White
Communities of Interest: Oceanside, Carlsbad
Status: Lean Republican
Although Issa represents the 49th district currently, this district has most of the old 49th district including his home so I expect him to run here. The district has become more Democratic with the removal of conservative inland areas and the addition of some coastal towns such as Carlsbad which lean Democratic. Even though Obama won this district, Issa should win here because he is popular, has money and still retains most of his old district's territory. If Issa retired, a strong Democrat such as Nick Leibham could make this seat competitive.
LA Area Zoom out
California's 27th District Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D) Springgreen
Obama 179,810 63%, McCain 98,652 35%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 29.9% Hispanic, 51.5% White
Demographics 18+: 11.9% Asian, 26.7% Hispanic, 54.8% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 11% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 44% White
Communities of Interest: Agoura Hills, Chatsworth, Northridge
Status: Safe Democratic
This district changes as it picks up the Agoura Hills and Northridge areas. Although this district is too Democratic for a Republican, there might be a big primary fight here. I am not sure if the Democratic party will like combining the two incumbents but the commission may do it in order to create a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. Hispanic groups have been pushing for years to create one here. This district combines most of the white parts of the San Fernando Valley. Although this district contains more of Sherman's territory, Berman is more entrenched and he has the backing of Waxman. His backing may translate into votes in the parts of Waxman's old district such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas if Waxman campaigns strongly for Berman. Anyway, this will be an interesting race or Sherman may decide not to run here but run in the nearby 24th instead if Gallegly retires.
California's 28th District Vacant Plum
Obama 120,378 72%, McCain 43,871 25%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 8.8% Asian, 66.1% Hispanic, 19.9% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 31% White
Communities of Interest: San Fernando, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic
No matter what the Democrats or Republicans propose, the commission will probably create a strong Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley due to its high Hispanic population and the lack of a Hispanic representative. This district formerly belonged to Howard Berman (D) but he will probably run in the new 30th District or retire. Regardless, a 66% Hispanic population should be enough for a Hispanic to win. A possible candidate would be rising star Alex Padilla (D).
California's 29th District Adam Schiff (D) Darkseagreen
Obama 183,315 67%, McCain 85,088 31%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 4.6% African American, 15.1% Asian, 27.6% Hispanic, 49.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.7% African American, 15.6% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 52.1% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 24% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 39% White
Communities of Interest: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena
Status: Safe Democratic
The district loses a few majority Asian neighborhoods east of Pasadena and gains a higher white population but despite these changes, the district remains Democratic.
California's 30th District Henry Waxman (D) Lightcoral
Obama 272,769 76%, McCain 80,664 22%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 11.3% Hispanic, 70.6% White
Demographics 18+: 11.3% Asian, 10.6% Hispanic, 71.3% White
Old Demographics: 9% Asian, 8% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Malibu, Beverly Hills, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic
The 30th district loses neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley and towns such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas. The district picks up Tarzana to compensate for the population loss. This helps make the district more Democratic even though this district was safe for Waxman already.
California's 31st District Xavier Beccara (D) Khaki
Obama 120,249 81%, McCain 25,037 17%
Change: Obama +1
Demographics: 5.6% African American, 18.3% Asian, 64.0% Hispanic, 10.5% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 20.9% Asian, 58.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 14% Asian, 70% Hispanic, 10% White
Communities of Interest: Downtown Los Angeles, Clement Junction, Silver Lake
Status: Safe Democratic
Beccara's district becomes more compact as it picks up areas such as Boyle Heights from the 34th District. It loses a few Hispanics but still remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.
Los Angeles Zoom in
California's 32nd District Judy Chu (D) Orangered
Obama 129,104 59% McCain 84,414 38%
Change: McCain +17
Demographics: 38.1% Asian, 39.0% Hispanic, 19.6% White
Demographics 18+: 40.2% Asian, 35.1% Hispanic, 21.7% White
Old Demographics: 18% Asian, 62% Hispanic, 15% White
Communities of Interest: Monterey Park, El Monte, Glendora
Status: Safe Democratic
The commission will probably create a district where an Asian candidate can win in this part of LA County. The district could be extended into Asian neighborhoods in Diamond Bar but I doubt they will do that because it will create convoluted lines if they want to connect Asian areas in Monterey Park and Diamond Bar. The 32nd district loses heavily Hispanic Baldwin Park but picks up Asian areas near Arcadia. Although Asians are not the pluarity in this district, they compose the pluarity of elligble voters so Chu should survive a primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate. Chu's current district is 62% Hispanic and 18% Asian so a strong Hispanic primary challenger would have a strong base. The district becomes more Republican because the new Asian areas such as San Marino and Arcadia are not heavily Democratic. Obama's 21 point win here should be high enough to protect Chu and she should perform higher than Obama among Asians too.
California's 33rd District Karen Bass (D) Royal Blue
Obama 213,299 89% McCain 24,021 10%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 30.5% African American, 7.0% Asian, 44.5% Hispanic, 15.1% White
Demographics 18+: 31.5% African American, 8.1% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 17.4% White
Old Demographics: 30% African American, 12% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 20% White
Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Culver City, Inglewood
Status: Safe Democratic
With the inclusion of Inglewood, this becomes the most Democratic district in California. Also, I had to eliminate one African American district in LA because it will be difficult for all three African Americans to hold their districts as the Hispanic population grows. Bass's district's African American population rises to 31%. While Hispanics are still a plurality here in the 18+ population, Bass should win the primaries because African Americans still have higher turnout here. If current population trends continue with many African Americans moving out to the exurbs, a Hispanic candidate may be competitive at the end of the decade. For 2012 though, Bass should be fine.
California's 34th District Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Limegreen
Obama 134,331 72%, McCain 47,779 26%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 5.2% Asian, 81.8% Hispanic, 10.0% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% Asian, 78.4% Hispanic, 12.1% White
Old Demographics: 6% Asian, 77% Hispanic, 11% White
Communities of Interest: East Los Angeles, Downey, Norwalk
Status: Safe Democratic
Yes, I understand this district may be too narrow and too long so the commission may not think it is compact. A district like this is necessary though because if it were more compact around the East Los Angeles area, the Hispanic population would be considered too high and it would be considered packing under the VRA. Many of the Hispanic areas there are around 90% Hispanic. Other Hispanic majority districts would not have enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic representative if they cannot pick up heavily Hispanic neighborhoods such as East Los Angeles, Pico Rivera and Lynwood. Anyway, Allard's district is still 78% Hispanic even while picking up less Hispanic Whittier and Norwalk which makes the district a few points more Republican but still safe for Allard.
California's 35th District Maxine Waters (D) Darkorchid
Obama 174,015 84%, McCain 29,599 14%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 28.0% African American, 9.5% Asian, 55.2% Hispanic, 5.4% White
Demographics 18+: 29.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 50.8% Hispanic, 6.7% White
Old Demographics: 34% African American, 6% Asian, 47% Hispanic, 10% White
Communities of Interest: Gardena, Compton, Carson
Status: Safe Democratic
The 35th District is now a combination of the current 35th and 37th districts but much of the 37th District is in the new 46th District so Waters has a bit more territory here. Although her district loses her base of Inglewood and picks up Compton and Carson from the 37th District, Waters should win the next few elections. She can face tough elections in the near future though. The Hispanic population here is growing and if Waters' popularity decreases quickly due to her ethics problem, her unpopularity combined with a growing Hispanic population gives a Hispanic candidate an opening.
California's 36th District Vacant Orange
Obama 197,636 61%, McCain 117,566 37%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 17.3% Asian, 27.8% Hispanic, 47.2% White
Demographics 18+: 17.9% Asian, 24.5% Hispanic, 50.9% White
Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Rancho Palos Verdes
Status: Safe Democratic
The district becomes more Republican as it picks up Republican leaning Rancho Palos Verdes. This district had similar territory in the 1990s and was very competitive. The territory has trended Democratic very quickly with Kerry performing better than Gore here while Gore performed better than Kerry statewide. Obama's 61% of the vote is at his statewide average of 61%. The current congresswoman Jane Harman (D) will resign soon. The Democrats though have strong candidates running to including former LA city councilmember Janice Hahn (D) and popular Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D). They should keep this district in the Democratic column.
California's 37th District David Dreier (R) (formerly the 26th District) Dodger Blue
Obama 134,679 56%, McCain 100,675 42%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 5.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 51.7% Hispanic, 29.2% White
Demographics 18+: 6.0% African American, 12.0% Asian, 46.8% Hispanic, 33.2% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 15% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 52% White
Communities of Interest: Covina, Pomona, Chino Hills
Status: Lean Democratic if Dreier runs, Likely Democratic if he does not
The 37th straddles the border between Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. As for the party strength in this district, Obama may have won with 56% of the vote here but if the Republican candidate is extremely popular and can make inroads with Hispanics, he or she could win. David Dreier (R)'s district was eliminated on this map. He could run here because it contains part of his old district with Upland but he is not familiar with the mostly Democratic Covina or Pomona voters so a Democrat could win here with large margins from those two cities. As for Hispanic representation, the district is nearly 50% 18+ Hispanic now. They would not make up the majority of the votes but there may be enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic in the Democratic primary because many of the white voters in this district are Republican.
California's 38th District Grace Napolitano (D) Medium Aquamarine
Obama 144,232 66%, McCain 69,883 32%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 22.4% Asian, 63.8% Hispanic, 10.8% White
Demographics 18+: 24.5% Asian, 59.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White
Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 71% Hispanic, 14% White
Communities of Interest: Pico Rivera, Baldwin Park, Diamond Bar
Status: Safe Democratic
This district becomes more Republican by losing Norwalk and picking up Diamond Bar. Napolitano lives in Norwalk but she should run here since it contains most of her old district. Also, the district loses Hispanics but the 60% Hispanic 18+ population should protect Napolitano.
California's 39th District Linda Sanchez (D) Mocassin
Obama 126,071 72%, McCain 46,502 26%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 7.2% African American, 9.4% Asian, 71.4% Hispanic, 10.5% White
Demographics: 7.5% African American, 10.8% Asian, 67.6% Hispanic, 12.8% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 10% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Park., Lynwood, Lakewood
Status: Safe Democratic
The district becomes more Democratic and Hispanic with the loss of swing areas such as La Mirada and the addition of heavily Hispanic Huntington Park and Bell Gardens. Sanchez should have no problems here.
Orange County
California's 40th District Ed Royce (R) Fireback
Obama 116,698 48%, McCain 122,690 50%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 18.2% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 36.8% White
Demographics 18+: 19.1% Asian, 35.5% Hispanic, 41.2% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 49% White
Communities of Interest: La Mirada, Fullerton, Orange
Status: Likely Republican
Royce's district keeps most of its old territory but expands a bit. It picks up the swing area La Mirada in Los Angeles County as well as Whittier. It loses marginal Los Alamitos. These changes make the district a bit more Democratic. Royce is popular here though so he should win. If Royce retires at the end of the decade though, a Democrat should have a good shot here.
San Bernardino Area
California's 41st District Jerry Lewis (R) Lightsteelblue
Obama 104,162 42%, McCain 138,074 56%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 7.5% African American, 4.4% Asian, 34.1% Hispanic, 50.5% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 4.8% Asian, 29.4% Hispanic, 55.9% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 23% Hispanic, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Banning
Status: Safe Republican
The district grew so it will shed some territory. It lost most of rural San Bernardino County including Needles. It also loses Republican leaning Hemet and San Jacinto. It does pick up Republican neighborhoods in Rancho Cucamonga though. Rancho Cucamonga is not next to the bulk of the district's population which is east of San Bernardino and Riverside. Rancho Cucamonga can be considered a community of interest though because it has similar demographics and voting habits with the rest of the district. Also, connecting Rancho Cucamonga to the rest of the district does not create convoluted lines.
California's 42nd District Gary Miller (R) Lawngreen
Obama 145,652 46%, McCain 167,287 52%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 21.3% Asian, 15.6% Hispanic, 57.7% White
Demographics 18+: 21.8% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 54% White
Communities of Interest: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest
Status: Safe Republican
Gary Miller's home is now in the heavily Hispanic 38th district but I believe he will run here since this district contains much of his old territory. The district is now completely in Orange County and it picks up Democratic leaning Irvine. These changes do not change the political composition of the district much though. Miller should be safe.
California's 43rd District Joe Baca (D) Magenta
Obama 105,761 65%, McCain 54,576 33%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 11.0% African American, 5.3% Asian, 61.2% Hispanic, 20.2% White
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 6.1% Asian, 56.1% Hispanic, 24.5% White
Old Demographics: 12% African American, 3% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 23% White
Communities of Interest: Fontana, Colton, San Bernardino
Status: Safe Democratic
The district becomes more Republican by losing Democratic areas in Ontario and Colton as well as picking up part of Republican leaning Redlands. The adult population of the district is 56% Hispanic and they make up a large portion of the Democratic primary voters so Baca should be safe in this 65% Obama district.
California's 44th District Vacant (R) Medium Violetred
Obama 100,306 61% McCain 59,648 37%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 9.0% African American, 5.6% Asian, 60.1% Hispanic, 22.8% White
Demographics 18+: 9.3% African American, 6.5% Asian, 54.8% Hispanic, 27.3% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Communities of Interest: Ontario, Riverside, Moreno Valley
Status: Likely Democratic
This is the new Hispanic majority district in the Inland Empire which contains Hispanic neighborhoods in Ontario, Colton, Riverside and Moreno Valley. Ken Calvert currently represents the 44th district on the current map and the 44th district is a swing district. I doubt he will run in a district that voted 61% for Obama so any strong Democrat who runs here should win the general election.
California's 45th District Ken Calvert (R) (formerly the 44th) Turquoise
Obama 107,459 51% McCain 101,375 48%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 6.7% African American, 8.0% Asian, 43.6% Hispanic, 38.6% White
Demographics 18+: 6.8% African American, 8.8% Asian, 38.4% Hispanic, 43.6% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Corona, Riverside, San Jacinto
Status: Toss Up
Although this district is numbered the 45th which Mary Bono Mack (R) currently represents, she probably will not run here since this district does not contain most of her current territory. This district at first looks like a Republican lean because Obama overperformed usual Democratic percentages. Democrats have a shot here though because Ken Calvert (R) is a weak incumbent and won in 2008 only because of margins in Orange County. His district loses Orange County while picking up Democratic Perris and marginal San Jacinto. His district is also quickly trending Democratic. Also, Bill Hedrick (D) in 2008 received almost no support from national Democrats but lost by only 2 points against Calvert. If Hedrick runs in a good Democratic year and receives support from national Democrats, he should win.
California's 46th District Dana Rohrabacher (R) Tomato
Obama 155,425 58% McCain 106,910 40%
Change: Obama +20
Demographics: 8.1% African American, 18.3% Asian, 32.7% Hispanic, 37.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 18.9% Asian, 28.2% Hispanic, 42.4% White
Old Demographics: 1% African American, 15% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 62% White
Communities of Interest: Long Beach, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach
Status: Lean Democratic
The district becomes more Democratic with the addition of Democratic areas in Long Beach. The removal of Costa Mesa and most of Huntington Beach helps too. Rohrabacher is popular but even he should not win in a 58% Obama district. Also, the new Democratic voters from Long Beach are not familiar with him so he will not be able to win by taking away Democratic votes. An issue with this district is that western Long Beach may not be considered a community of interest with the rest of the district. It should work because it is in the same city limits as eastern Long Beach which is currently in the 46th District and should be a community of interest with the Orange County part of the district. Also, the addition of most of Long Beach makes the district compact and it formerly had a thin line going to Rancho Palos Verdes.
California's 47th District Loretta Sanchez (D) Thistle
Obama 86,950 59%, McCain 57,839 39%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 1.6% Asian, 65.7% Hispanic, 14.0% White
Demographics 18+: 19.7% Asian, 60.2% Hispanic, 17.3% White
Old Demographics: 14% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 17% White
Communities of Interest: Anaheim, Santa Ana, Garden Grove
Status: Safe Democratic
Sanchez's district does not change much because it is already a Hispanic majority district and it contains similar communities. She picks up more of Garden Grove which may not be the best idea because her 2010 challenger Van Tran (R) is popular there. She should be safe because she won by double digits in 2010, an extremely Republican year and if she were strong then, she is strong now.
California's 48th District John Campbell (R) SandyBrown
Obama 159,835 46%, McCain 179,461 52%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 18.6% Hispanic, 66.5% White
Demographics 18+: 11.2% Asian, 15.9% Hispanic, 69.5% White
Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 68% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach
Status: Safe Republican
Campbell's district loses Irvine and becomes the coastal district. It picks up Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa. Although the district is narrow, it certainly picks up communities of interest by getting all the beach towns. The district becomes more Republican with the loss of Irvine but Campbell was pretty safe anyway. This district may be open to voting for a libertarian Democrat if they view Campbell as one of the big government Republicans but for now, this district remains Republican.
California's 49th District Mary Bono (R) (formerly the 45th District) IndianRed
Obama 112,830 45%, McCain 135,459 54%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 32.0% Hispanic, 54.8% White
Demographics 18+: 6.2% Asian, 27.2% Hispanic, 60.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 38% Hispanic, 50% White
Communities of Interest: Lake Elsinore, Temecula, Palm Springs
Status: Safe Republican
Bono's old district contained Moreno Valley and voted for Obama by 5 points. Her district is now more Republican with the removal of Moreno Valley and heavily Hispanic Coachella. Her district picks up Republican Murrieta and Temecula though. Although Palm Springs leans Democratic, Murrieta and Temecula more than cancel out the Democratic votes there. Democrats probably would like to put Palm Springs in the 45th district so Steve Pougnet (D), the Palm Springs mayor can run for that seat but dividing the Palm Springs corridor between three districts would be violate communities of interest rules. Anyway, Pougnet does not have to live in the 45th district if he decides to run in it. The 45th district is close to Palm Springs so carpetbagging should not be a big issue.
San Diego Area
California's 50th District Brian Bilbray (R) Powder Blue
Obama 203,346 59%, McCain 136,596 39%
Change: Obama +16
Demographics: 18.4% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White
Demographics 18+: 18.5% Asian, 12.4% Hispanic, 62.8% White
Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 66% White
Communities of Interest: Del Mar, San Diego
Status: Lean Democratic
Bilbray has represented San Diego for a number of years and he is used to running in districts that lean Democratic. His old 50th District voted for Obama by a couple of points. He should lose in this district though because he picks up more of San Diego City including some white liberal areas from the 53rd. This increases the Obama percentage to 59% and that should be enough to beat him. This district also fits the guidelines for the commission by remaining compact and taking in similar neighborhoods. It is possible Susan Davis (D) from the 53rd will run here because her district's white population may be too small for her and the 50th district contains part of her old district. She ran against Bilbray in 2000 and it will be an interesting rematch. She should win though.
California's 51st District Bob Filner (D) Saddle Brown
Obama 114,954 59%, McCain 78,621 40%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 67.2% Hispanic, 20.9% White
Demographics 18+: 7.2% Asian, 62.4% Hispanic, 25.0% White
Old Demographics: 9% African American, 12% Asian, 53% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Coachella, El Centro, Chula Vista
Status: Safe Democratic
Bob Filner is a popular representative but the commission will create a Hispanic majority district with parts of San Diego. He has handily beaten back primary challenges from Hispanics though in a 53% Hispanic district. He won with support from African Americans and Asians and he loses many of those voters to the 53rd district and the 51st district's Hispanic population rose to 67% under the new lines. He retains most of his old territory so he may survive. Nonetheless, his district becomes more Hispanic by picking up Coachella and Indio. I have also heard of proposals to connect Imperial County to an eastern San Diego County district. Those areas do not have much in common though but it is necessary to connect them so there is a district designed to elect a Hispanic representative in the San Diego area. The district becomes more Republican too though by losing National City and some Democratic neighborhoods in San Diego but remains safe for any Democrat. Filner may decide to run in the 53rd district which has a larger white population.
California's 52nd District Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) OliveDrub
Obama 126,471 42%, McCain 171,794 57%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 5.5% Asian, 23.5% Hispanic, 63.5% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 20.0% Hispanic, 67.8% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 73% White
Communities of Interest: Poway, San Diego, El Cajon
Status: Safe Republican
The district was already Republican but it becomes even more Republican. It loses most of San Diego City except the northeastern area and picks up Republican leaning Escondido. Hunter should have no problems here.
California's 53rd District Susan Davis (D) Gainsboro
Obama 132,477 69%, McCain 56,420 29%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 10.1% African American, 12.2% Asian, 46.6% Hispanic, 28.0% White
Demographics 18+: 10.1% African American, 13.0% Asian, 41.0% Hispanic, 33.2% White
Old Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 29% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: National City, San Diego
Status: Safe Democratic
Davis's district becomes less white as it loses more northern parts of San Diego and picks up National City. These changes make the district more Democratic but less safe for Davis. She faces the possibility of a primary challenge from a minority candidate. She should survive because many of the voters in the new 53rd are from her old district and whites probably outnumber Hispanics in the Democratic primary. Also, Davis should get support from African Americans and Asians. Filner may give her a primary challenge here though. This may make her decide to run in the 50th district against Bilbray. It would be a rematch of the 2000 race where they challenged each other in a similar district.
Have any suggestions on the map? Do you have any maps you want to share? Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts.
This leads to why I am drawing this map and it is because I am predicting what the Democrats will propose to the commission. Although the commission makes the final decision, both parties will draw up proposals suggesting what the commission should do. For the Democrats, their proposal needs to protect their incumbents, create more opportunities in the Inland Empire and Central Valley while not drawing convoluted lines. Also, my proposal respects the VRA which requires a certain number of minority majority districts in order to ensure minorities are not underrepresented in the House. For example, I made the 15th and 32nd districts with Asian representatives more Asian. I also created three new districts designed to elect Hispanics because California's Hispanic population is growing rapidly and will need representation. Also, California's Hispanic population is 36% and there are only 8 Hispanic representatives in 53 congressional districts. The problem is that Hispanic turnout rates are low so districts with a Hispanic percentage of 51% will not have enough Hispanic voters to elect a Hispanic representative. If the district is Democratic but has Republican white voters though, there can be enough Hispanics in the Democratic primary to elect a Hispanic candidate. Some of my districts have low Hispanic populations but the population numbers are from ten years ago so the Hispanic population should be larger. I also created 29 Safe Democratic seats, three Likely Democratic seats, five lean Democratic seats, three Toss Up seats, one Lean Republican seat, two Likely Republican seats (these could be competitive in a few years if demographic trends continue) and ten Safe Republican seats. I wanted to create more seats for the Democrats but I did not want convoluted lines because the commission will reject those. Anyway, here are some helpful links and the maps:
A side note: this is an updated version of the California map I drew in February. This map includes updated demographic information as well as some different lines. The old version of my map can be found here: http://frogandturtle.blogspot.com/2011/02/california-redistricting.html
Current maps of California's congressional districts: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/congress.html
A few notes: if you want a better picture of the maps, click on them. Old Demographics means the demographics of the old districts. "Change" represents how the partisan makeup of the district is compared to the old lines.
Northern California
California's 1st Congressional District Mike Thompson (D) Blue
Obama 194,639 64%, McCain 99,977 33%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 23.7% Hispanic, 62.9% White
Demographics VAP: 6.4% Asian, 19.8% Hispanic, 67.3% White
Old Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 71% White
Communities of Interest: Eureka, Clear Lake, Napa
Status: Safe Democratic
Mike Thompson's district becomes a few points more Republican with the loss of some Sonoma County towns and the addition of Republican Colusa and Glenn Counties. Those changes are not significant population wise and the Democratic counties of Yolo, Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino and Humboldt keep this district safe for Thompson.
California's 2nd Congressional District Wally Herger (R) Green
Obama 121,124 42%, McCain 161,724 56%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 4.3% Asian, 17.1% Hispanic, 71.9% White
Demographics VAP: 4.1% Asian, 14.1% Hispanic, 75.8% White
Old Demographics: 14% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Redding, Chico, Yuba City
Status: Safe Republican
The district undergoes some geographical changes but the politics and the demographics of the district do not change much. The district loses Trinity, Colusa and Glenn Counties to the 1st but picks up Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties to the east. Those counties make the district a bit more Republican but it was already safe for its representative who called a right wing terrorist a "Great American." It also remains compact.
Sacramento Area
California's 3rd Congressional District Dan Lungren (R) Purple
Obama 144,966 52%, McCain 131,111 47%
Change: Obama +5
Demographics: 7.2% African American, 10.2% Asian, 18.2% Hispanic, 59.5% White
Demographics VAP: 6.9% African American, 10.2% Asian, 15.3% Hispanic, 63.7% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 74% White
Communities of Interest: Citrus Heights, Folsom
Status: Toss Up
In 2008 and 2010, Democrats believed they had the candidate to beat Lungren but he held onto his seat. He won by seven points in 2010 against Ami Bera (D), a strong candidate in a strong Republican year. 2012 should be a neutral year at best for Republicans. Bera announced that he will run for Lungren's seat so Democrats already have a strong candidate. The district is more Democratic now because the district is entirely in Sacramento County. It used to contain some Republican leaning rural counties but by losing those, the district becomes more Democratic.
California's 4th Congressional District Tom McClintock (R) Red
Obama 154,066 45%, McCain 184,422 53%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 13.3% Hispanic, 76.8% White
Old Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 83% White
Demographics VAP: 4.6% Asain, 11.0% Hispanic, 80.1% White
Communities of Interest: Roseville, Auburn, Nevada City
Status: Safe Republican
The district appears to undergo major changes by losing some northern rural counties but it actually keeps most of its residents. It becomes more of a Sacramento suburban district than a northern rural district though. It picks up rural parts of Yuba County and retains suburban Placer and El Dorado Counties while losing heavily Republican counties in northeast California. McClintock had a tough race here in 2008 and although the district becomes two points more Democratic, McClintock should be safe.
California's 5th Congressional District Doris Matsui (D) Yellow
Obama 170,015 67%, McCain 80,493 32%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 12.6% African American, 19.8% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 37.2% White
Demographics VAP: 12.2% African American, 20.1% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 41.9% White
Old Demographics: 14% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Elk Grove
Status: Safe Democratic
Matsui's district remains similar to its current configuration. It retains heavily minority and Democratic parts of Sacramento County. The only significant difference is that I extended her district up to the northern Sacramento County border to pick up some Republican areas to weaken the 3rd. Matsui's district is completely safe for her and she is too popular for a successful primary challenge.
Bay Area
California's 6th Congressional District Lynn Woolsey (D) Teal
Obama 266,842 76%, McCain 79,189 23%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 68.5% White
Old Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Novato, San Rafael, Santa Rosa
Status: Safe Democratic
Besides losing the Mendocino County border and picking up the Sonoma Valley, the 6th district does not change much. It remains very white and heavily Democratic. The commission's new map may look different though regarding the 6th district. There are proposals to eliminate the 6th district by putting Sonoma in the 1st district and Marin County in the 8th district. This violates communities of interest though because Marin County and Sonoma Counties are upscale suburban communities while San Francisco is a dense urban area. Also, the commission must try not to break county lines and in this situation, the 8th district crosses the SF/Marin County line although San Francisco has more than enough people for one district. Also, a district combining Marin and San Francisco relies on water contiguity which many critics view as unfair. Also, putting Santa Rosa in the 1st district violates communities of interest for that district too because Santa Rosa is an urban community which is different from the current 1st district which is filled with small cities and rural areas. One may argue that the Sonoma County district should extend east to make it more urban but population purposes would cause Vallejo to go into the same district as Santa Rosa. Vallejo is a lower income area and has more similar economic interests and connections with the East Bay than Santa Rosa. Therefore, it appears that the only option to satisfy communities of interest is to keep the 6th district as an upscale suburban district, not a district that combines urban and suburban communities that are not even connected by land. Also, it is important to give the 1st district similar lines to the one on my map because it will retain its characteristic of rural areas and small cities.
California's 7th Congressional district George Miller (D) Gray
Obama 205,912 66%, McCain 100,000 32%
Change: McCain +11
Demographics: 5.9% African American, 16.2% Asian, 19.9% Hispanic, 53.7% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% African American, 16.4% Asian, 17.3% Hispanic, 57.4% White
Old Demographics: 17% African American, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Pinole, Martinez, Danville
Status: Safe Democratic
Miller's district becomes less Democratic by losing all of its territory except for Pinole, Concord, Pittsburg and Martinez (his home.) I had to move Richmond out of his district to boost the African American population of the 9th district. I do not know if Miller will like running under these new lines that now include Lafayette, Walnut Creek and Danville. Even though this is the Democrats' proposal, they will have to make the lines compact for the commission to even consider the proposal. Anyway, this district is too Democratic for a Republican to win because Obama won 66% here which is higher than his statewide average of 61%. Also, no other representative lives in this district so Miller should not face a primary challenge.
San Francisco/Oakland
California's 8th Congressional District Nancy Pelosi (D) Slate Blue
Obama 282,175 85%, McCain 42,836 13%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 6.4% African American, 16.3% Hispanic, 30.9% Asian, 42.6% White
Demographics 18+: 6.2% African American, 15.0% Hispanic, 30.8% Asian, 45.0% White
Old Demographics: 9% African American, 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: San Francisco
Status: Safe Democratic
Pelosi's district picks up a few precincts in the eastern Sunset District and her district extends to the 19th Ave's eastern border. Besides this change, her district retains its current form.
California's 9th District Barbara Lee (D) Periwinkle
Obama 281,944 90%, McCain 24,082 8%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 21.8% African American, 17.6% Asian, 25.2% Hispanic, 31.0% White
Demographics 18+: 21.7% African American, 18.8% Asian, 21.6% Hispanic, 34.3% White
Old Demographics: 26% African American, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 35% White
Communities of Interest: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland
Status: Safe Democratic
Lee's district does change a bit as it loses a few Hispanic neighborhoods in South Oakland. Her district's population growth was minimal so it needed to pick up people. It moved north into Contra Costa County to pick up Richmond with a large African American population. Although Lee should be reelected, she will want a high African American population. Her district will get 2 points more African American and it will be even more Democratic.
California's 10th Congressional District John Garamendi (D) Deepink
Obama 163,340 60%, McCain 106,442 39%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 11.2% African American, 11.9% Asian, 26.9% Hispanic, 44.9% White
Demographics 18+: 11.2% African American, 12.6% Asian, 23.0% Hispanic, 49.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 65% White
Communities of Interest: Vallejo, Fairfield, Pittsburg
Status: Safe Democratic
Garamendi's district picks up Vallejo in Solano County. It loses Livermore which voted for Bush in 2004, and the 10th district loses the Walnut Creek area. To compensate for the loss of those areas, the 10th district picks up all of Solano County including heavily Democratic Vallejo. The 10th district also picks up more Central Valley territory because the population growth in the Bay Area is slower than the rest of the state and I needed to push the districts further east to make sure the districts had equal populations. Picking up Lodi to protect McNerney in the 11th district who won by only one point in 2010 does make the 10th district a couple points more Republican. A 60% Obama percentage is high enough to keep Garamendi safe though. Also, Obama did well in the Walnut Creek area formerly in the 10th district but many of the voters there can swing to Republicans. The Democrats in Vallejo which I moved into the 10th district usually stick with the Democratic ticket though.
California's 11th District Jerry McNerney (D) Chartreuse
Obama 117,947 56% McCain 87,870 42%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 7.4% African American, 14.4% Asian, 38.2% Hispanic, 36.0% White
Demographics 18+: 7.3% African American, 14.8% Asian, 33.5% Hispanic, 41.1% White
Old Demographics: 3% African American, 9% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Tracy, Stockton, Modesto
Status: Lean Democratic
At a first glance, it appears that McNerney's district becomes more Republican because it loses all of its territory in Democratic Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties. McNerney's district becomes four points more Democratic though with the addition of Democratic parts of Stockton, the removal of Lodi and the addition of Democratic parts of Modesto. I did not want to county split here but for population purposes, I had to do so. McNerney should still face challenges but if he could survive in a more Republican district in a very Republican year, he should win in this new district. Also, San Joaquin County which makes up a large portion of his district is trending Democratic quickly as Bay Area residents move into the Central Valley.
California's 12th District Jackie Speier (D) Cornflower
Obama 221,611 74%, McCain 71,441 24%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 32.2% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 40.3% White
Demographics 18+: 33.0% Asian, 19.3% Hispanic, 42.7% White
Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: South San Francisco, Redwood City, Half Moon Bay
Status: Safe Democratic
Speier's district shifts a bit south. She loses a few neighborhoods in SF but picks up some Hispanic neighborhoods in Redwood City. She also picks up Half Moon Bay and all of rural San Mateo County. These changes do not significantly alter her Democratic district.
California's 13th District Pete Stark (D) Darksalmon
Obama 192,824 70%, McCain 68,594 28%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 7.8% African American, 25.3% Asian, 25.3% Hispanic, 37.1% White
Demographics 18+: 7.7% African American, 22.4% Hispanic, 25.8% Asian, 40.6% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 28% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 38% White
Communities of Interest: San Leandro, Fremont, Pleasanton
Status: Safe Democratic
Stark's district gets a few points more Republican with the addition of Dublin, Pleasanton and Livermore. I did not want to connect Stark's district with those areas because they are not very similar communities but the 13th district follows Route 580 to connect them. Anyway, the district still stays heavily Democratic and safe for Stark.
San Jose
California's 14th District Anna Eshoo (D) Olive
Obama 218,686 71% McCain 82,344 27%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 23.5% Asian, 18.5% Hispanic, 51.6% White
Demographics 18+: 23.7% Asian, 16.2% Hispanic, 54.7% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 59% White
Communities of Interest: Mountain View, Saratoga, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic
Eshoo's district becomes a few points more Republican by losing northern Santa Cruz County and picking up western San Jose. Yes, I understand that Tom Campbell (R) held a district in the 1990's similar to this one. The 14th district has trended Democratic rapidly though in the last ten years and Obama won 71% of the vote here. Eshoo should have absolutely no worries, even if Campbell decided to run.
California's 15th District Mike Honda (D) Darkorange
Obama 171,018 70% McCain 68,779 28%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 50.5% Asian, 16.6% Hispanic, 26.3% White
Demographics 18+: 50.0% Asian, 14.9% Hispanic, 29.5% White
Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 47% White
Communities of Interest: Fremont, Cupertino, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic
This district becomes more Asian by losing white neighborhoods in San Jose while picking up Asian neighborhoods in Fremont and Sunnyvale. It also picks up a few Asian neighborhoods south of Milpitas. These changes make the district an Asian majority district. The commission has 5 Asians so I expect they will create some districts that will elect Asians such as this one. Honda is Asian but the Asian population in this district increases the chance that his successor will be too. If current population trends continue, his district will have an even larger Asian population as the decade progresses.
California's 16th Congressional District Zoe Lofgren (D) Lime
Obama 164,245 69%, McCain 69,832 29%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 26.1% Asian, 40.9% Hispanic, 27.1% White
Demographics 18+: 27.3% Asian, 36.7% Hispanic, 30.6% White
Old Demographics: 23% Asian, 38% Hispanic, 31% White
Communities of Interest: San Jose, Gilroy, Morgan Hill
Status: Safe Democratic
Lofgren's district does not become less Democratic or Republican but an issue arises. Her district gets a few points more Hispanic and with her district's growing Hispanic population, she may face a primary challenge from a Hispanic. Lofgren should win though because she is familiar with most of the 16th district's voters and the Hispanic population is still not high enough to unseat her. If she retires in a few years, Hispanics will have a big chance to elect a representative here. Anyway, she gets new territory in Hispanic Gilroy and Morgan Hill. Her district keeps communities of interest though by staying within the county boundaries.
Central California
California's 17th District Sam Farr (D) Darkslateblue
Obama 192,791 71%, McCain 71,552 26%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 5.3% Asian, 45.5% Hispanic, 44.3% White
Demographics 18+: 5.9% Asian, 39.5% Hispanic, 49.9% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Cruz, Monterey
Status: Safe Democratic
Farr's district becomes a few points more Republican but remains very safe. It is still a compact district containing all of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties while taking a small slice of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses all of agricultural San Benito County to the agricultural 18th district. The 17th picks up Republican leaning Paso Robles because it is in the Salinas Valley which is a community of interest in Monterey County. This also keeps Paso Robles out of the 23rd district.
California's 18th District Dennis Cardoza (D) Yellow
Obama 104,557 56%, McCain 78,223 42%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 5.4% Asian, 57.3% Hispanic, 32.0% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 51.8% Hispanic, 37.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 42% Hispanic, 39% White
Communities of Interest: Hollister, Modesto, Merced
Status: Lean Democratic
Cardoza's district becomes more Republican because the commission will want it to have compact lines. Thus, it will lose the finger into heavily Democratic Stockton. To compensate for the loss, the 18th district will go over the Diablo Range through Pacheco Pass to pick up San Benito County which is mostly agricultural like the rest of the district and leans Democratic. The 18th district also gains Gilroy which is in Santa Clara County but has an agricultural based economy too. The district splits Madera County with the 19th which breaks county lines but western Madera is very similar to the rest of the district so it is a community of interest. As for Cardoza himself, his district is more Republican because he loses his stronghold of Stockton. The district is growing Democratic though, he won strongly in 2010, a very Republican year and the majority of the voting age population is Hispanic. If current population trends continue, the Hispanic population will continue to grow.
California's 19th District Jeff Denham (R) Yellow Green
Obama 100,331 42%, McCain 136,040 56%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 33.8% Hispanic, 57.8% White
Demographics 18+: 28.2% Hispanic, 63.4% White
Old Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 59% White
Communities of Interest: Turlock, Mammoth Lakes, Barstow
Status: Safe Republican
The Sierras and the Mojave Desert used to be diced up between the Los Angeles centered 25th district and the formerly Central Valley centered 19th district so they were not united in one district. They are now part of the new 19th which is probably the most rural district in California now. The 19th loses all of Fresno and the parts of the Central Valley it has are mostly rural and white. Rural San Bernadino County may be far from the northern part of the district but these areas have similar residents. As for Denham, his district was already safe so he should be fine.
California's 20th District Jim Costa (D) Pink
Obama 93,033 58%, McCain 63,673 40%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 5.5% African American, 8.5% Asian, 63.5% Hispanic, 20.3% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 8.5% Asian, 58.8% Hispanic, 24.6% White
Old Demographics: 7% African American, 6% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Fresno, Delano
Status: Likely Democratic
Costa faced a tough reelection bid in 2010 and I would have strengthened his position but I wanted a district that the commission would approve due to compactness. His district gets a couple of points more Republican but he loses part of heavily Republican Kings County which has more in common with Tulare County which is partly in the 21st district. In his close 2010 reelection bid, Costa lost Kings County by more than 20 points. Costa gains more of his base in Fresno County which he won overwhemingly. His district has a minority population of 75% 18+. Nevertheless, if Costa can win in 2010, he can win any year.
California's 21st District Devin Nunes (R) Maroon
Obama 91,225 41%, McCain 129,299 58%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 6.8% Asian, 43.3% Hispanic, 43.2% White
Demographics 18+: 6.9% Asian, 38.0% Hispanic, 48.7% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Clovis, Visalia, Hanford
Status: Safe Republican
With the addition of half of Kings County, the 21st district becomes more Republican. While it loses some Republican parts of Tulare County such as Porterville, it also loses some Democratic parts of Fresno County. Although the district looks less compact than its original form, it still contains similar communities.
California's 22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Salmon
Obama 80,970 40%, McCain 120,213 59%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 5.4% African American, 47.2% Hispanic, 40.8% White
Demographics 18+: 5.3% African American, 41.9% Hispanic, 46.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 21% Hispanic, 67% White
Communities of Interest: Shafter, Bakersfield, California City
Status: Safe Republican
The district loses portions of Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo Counties. It is now completely in Kern County and it picks up some Democratic neighborhoods in Bakersfield from the 20th district. The 22nd district also loses Ridgecrest for population purposes. These changes make the 22nd more Democratic but it is still strongly Republican and more compact.
California's 23rd District Lois Capps (D) Aquamarine
Obama 174,392 58%, McCain 122,791 40%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 4.1% Asian, 34.9% Hispanic, 56.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.5% Asian, 29.7% Hispanic, 61.2% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura
Status: Likely Democratic
Santa Barbara, a liberal university town with an economy based largely on tourism is not too similar to northern Santa Barbara County which is conservative and has an economy based on the Vanderburg Air Force Base and agriculture. Northern Santa Barbara County has tried to split from Santa Barbara County for those reasons. The 23rd district will unite them though because compactness is important. The 23rd also picks up all of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses heavily Democratic Oxnard which brings the McCain percentage up to 40%. In the 1990s, the district was competitive with similar lines but this area has trended Democratic since then so I expect Capps will retain her seat.
California's 24th District Elton Gallegly (R) Indigo
Obama 160,848 55%, McCain 124,572 43%
Change: Obama +8
Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 42.4% Hispanic, 46.7% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% Asian, 37.8% Hispanic, 51.3% White
ld Demographics: 4% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 69% White
Communities of Interest: Oxnard, Moorpark, Simi Valley
Status: Tossup
This district loses the conservative parts of Santa Barbara County and picks up heavily Democratic Oxnard instead. This increases the Obama percentage in the district to 55%. Gallegly is an entrenched incumbent but he is not familiar with the voters in Oxnard. Gallegly could win by winning big margins in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. Gallegly keeps hinting he wants to retire so these new lines may convince him to do so. If he leaves, the seats will be hotly contested but I expect the Democrat to win by a few points. A possible candidate is State Senator Fran Pavley (D) who's State Senate district includes Oxnard. If Gallegy retires, State Senator Tony Strickland (R) may run here too.
West LA
California's 25th District Buck McKeon (R) Pale Violet Red
Obama 121,333 49% McCain 121,347 49%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 10.1% African American, 6.5% Asian, 37.6% Hispanic, 42.5% White
Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 7.0% Asian, 33.7% Hispanic, 47.1% White
Old Demographics: 8% African American, 4% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 57% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Victorville
Status: Likely Republican
This district shrinks as it loses rural areas in the desert and eastern Sierras. It still resembles a tossup because Obama barely won it but this district is strongly Republican. Kerry won only 40% here and McKeon is highly popular. When he retires, a strong Democrat against a weak Republican can win here but although this area is trending Democratic, it is still Republican at a local level.
California's 26th District Darrell Issa (R) Gray
Obama 136,674 50%, McCain 131,713 48%
Change: Obama +8 (the old 49th District.)
Demographics: 7.0% Asian, 31.5% Hispanic, 55.4% White
Demographics 18+: 7.4% Asian, 27.1% Hispanic, 60.3% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 4% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 57% White
Communities of Interest: Oceanside, Carlsbad
Status: Lean Republican
Although Issa represents the 49th district currently, this district has most of the old 49th district including his home so I expect him to run here. The district has become more Democratic with the removal of conservative inland areas and the addition of some coastal towns such as Carlsbad which lean Democratic. Even though Obama won this district, Issa should win here because he is popular, has money and still retains most of his old district's territory. If Issa retired, a strong Democrat such as Nick Leibham could make this seat competitive.
LA Area Zoom out
California's 27th District Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D) Springgreen
Obama 179,810 63%, McCain 98,652 35%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 29.9% Hispanic, 51.5% White
Demographics 18+: 11.9% Asian, 26.7% Hispanic, 54.8% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 11% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 44% White
Communities of Interest: Agoura Hills, Chatsworth, Northridge
Status: Safe Democratic
This district changes as it picks up the Agoura Hills and Northridge areas. Although this district is too Democratic for a Republican, there might be a big primary fight here. I am not sure if the Democratic party will like combining the two incumbents but the commission may do it in order to create a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. Hispanic groups have been pushing for years to create one here. This district combines most of the white parts of the San Fernando Valley. Although this district contains more of Sherman's territory, Berman is more entrenched and he has the backing of Waxman. His backing may translate into votes in the parts of Waxman's old district such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas if Waxman campaigns strongly for Berman. Anyway, this will be an interesting race or Sherman may decide not to run here but run in the nearby 24th instead if Gallegly retires.
California's 28th District Vacant Plum
Obama 120,378 72%, McCain 43,871 25%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 8.8% Asian, 66.1% Hispanic, 19.9% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 31% White
Communities of Interest: San Fernando, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic
No matter what the Democrats or Republicans propose, the commission will probably create a strong Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley due to its high Hispanic population and the lack of a Hispanic representative. This district formerly belonged to Howard Berman (D) but he will probably run in the new 30th District or retire. Regardless, a 66% Hispanic population should be enough for a Hispanic to win. A possible candidate would be rising star Alex Padilla (D).
California's 29th District Adam Schiff (D) Darkseagreen
Obama 183,315 67%, McCain 85,088 31%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 4.6% African American, 15.1% Asian, 27.6% Hispanic, 49.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.7% African American, 15.6% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 52.1% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 24% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 39% White
Communities of Interest: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena
Status: Safe Democratic
The district loses a few majority Asian neighborhoods east of Pasadena and gains a higher white population but despite these changes, the district remains Democratic.
California's 30th District Henry Waxman (D) Lightcoral
Obama 272,769 76%, McCain 80,664 22%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 11.3% Hispanic, 70.6% White
Demographics 18+: 11.3% Asian, 10.6% Hispanic, 71.3% White
Old Demographics: 9% Asian, 8% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Malibu, Beverly Hills, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic
The 30th district loses neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley and towns such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas. The district picks up Tarzana to compensate for the population loss. This helps make the district more Democratic even though this district was safe for Waxman already.
California's 31st District Xavier Beccara (D) Khaki
Obama 120,249 81%, McCain 25,037 17%
Change: Obama +1
Demographics: 5.6% African American, 18.3% Asian, 64.0% Hispanic, 10.5% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 20.9% Asian, 58.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 14% Asian, 70% Hispanic, 10% White
Communities of Interest: Downtown Los Angeles, Clement Junction, Silver Lake
Status: Safe Democratic
Beccara's district becomes more compact as it picks up areas such as Boyle Heights from the 34th District. It loses a few Hispanics but still remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.
Los Angeles Zoom in
California's 32nd District Judy Chu (D) Orangered
Obama 129,104 59% McCain 84,414 38%
Change: McCain +17
Demographics: 38.1% Asian, 39.0% Hispanic, 19.6% White
Demographics 18+: 40.2% Asian, 35.1% Hispanic, 21.7% White
Old Demographics: 18% Asian, 62% Hispanic, 15% White
Communities of Interest: Monterey Park, El Monte, Glendora
Status: Safe Democratic
The commission will probably create a district where an Asian candidate can win in this part of LA County. The district could be extended into Asian neighborhoods in Diamond Bar but I doubt they will do that because it will create convoluted lines if they want to connect Asian areas in Monterey Park and Diamond Bar. The 32nd district loses heavily Hispanic Baldwin Park but picks up Asian areas near Arcadia. Although Asians are not the pluarity in this district, they compose the pluarity of elligble voters so Chu should survive a primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate. Chu's current district is 62% Hispanic and 18% Asian so a strong Hispanic primary challenger would have a strong base. The district becomes more Republican because the new Asian areas such as San Marino and Arcadia are not heavily Democratic. Obama's 21 point win here should be high enough to protect Chu and she should perform higher than Obama among Asians too.
California's 33rd District Karen Bass (D) Royal Blue
Obama 213,299 89% McCain 24,021 10%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 30.5% African American, 7.0% Asian, 44.5% Hispanic, 15.1% White
Demographics 18+: 31.5% African American, 8.1% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 17.4% White
Old Demographics: 30% African American, 12% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 20% White
Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Culver City, Inglewood
Status: Safe Democratic
With the inclusion of Inglewood, this becomes the most Democratic district in California. Also, I had to eliminate one African American district in LA because it will be difficult for all three African Americans to hold their districts as the Hispanic population grows. Bass's district's African American population rises to 31%. While Hispanics are still a plurality here in the 18+ population, Bass should win the primaries because African Americans still have higher turnout here. If current population trends continue with many African Americans moving out to the exurbs, a Hispanic candidate may be competitive at the end of the decade. For 2012 though, Bass should be fine.
California's 34th District Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Limegreen
Obama 134,331 72%, McCain 47,779 26%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 5.2% Asian, 81.8% Hispanic, 10.0% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% Asian, 78.4% Hispanic, 12.1% White
Old Demographics: 6% Asian, 77% Hispanic, 11% White
Communities of Interest: East Los Angeles, Downey, Norwalk
Status: Safe Democratic
Yes, I understand this district may be too narrow and too long so the commission may not think it is compact. A district like this is necessary though because if it were more compact around the East Los Angeles area, the Hispanic population would be considered too high and it would be considered packing under the VRA. Many of the Hispanic areas there are around 90% Hispanic. Other Hispanic majority districts would not have enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic representative if they cannot pick up heavily Hispanic neighborhoods such as East Los Angeles, Pico Rivera and Lynwood. Anyway, Allard's district is still 78% Hispanic even while picking up less Hispanic Whittier and Norwalk which makes the district a few points more Republican but still safe for Allard.
California's 35th District Maxine Waters (D) Darkorchid
Obama 174,015 84%, McCain 29,599 14%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 28.0% African American, 9.5% Asian, 55.2% Hispanic, 5.4% White
Demographics 18+: 29.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 50.8% Hispanic, 6.7% White
Old Demographics: 34% African American, 6% Asian, 47% Hispanic, 10% White
Communities of Interest: Gardena, Compton, Carson
Status: Safe Democratic
The 35th District is now a combination of the current 35th and 37th districts but much of the 37th District is in the new 46th District so Waters has a bit more territory here. Although her district loses her base of Inglewood and picks up Compton and Carson from the 37th District, Waters should win the next few elections. She can face tough elections in the near future though. The Hispanic population here is growing and if Waters' popularity decreases quickly due to her ethics problem, her unpopularity combined with a growing Hispanic population gives a Hispanic candidate an opening.
California's 36th District Vacant Orange
Obama 197,636 61%, McCain 117,566 37%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 17.3% Asian, 27.8% Hispanic, 47.2% White
Demographics 18+: 17.9% Asian, 24.5% Hispanic, 50.9% White
Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Rancho Palos Verdes
Status: Safe Democratic
The district becomes more Republican as it picks up Republican leaning Rancho Palos Verdes. This district had similar territory in the 1990s and was very competitive. The territory has trended Democratic very quickly with Kerry performing better than Gore here while Gore performed better than Kerry statewide. Obama's 61% of the vote is at his statewide average of 61%. The current congresswoman Jane Harman (D) will resign soon. The Democrats though have strong candidates running to including former LA city councilmember Janice Hahn (D) and popular Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D). They should keep this district in the Democratic column.
California's 37th District David Dreier (R) (formerly the 26th District) Dodger Blue
Obama 134,679 56%, McCain 100,675 42%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 5.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 51.7% Hispanic, 29.2% White
Demographics 18+: 6.0% African American, 12.0% Asian, 46.8% Hispanic, 33.2% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 15% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 52% White
Communities of Interest: Covina, Pomona, Chino Hills
Status: Lean Democratic if Dreier runs, Likely Democratic if he does not
The 37th straddles the border between Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. As for the party strength in this district, Obama may have won with 56% of the vote here but if the Republican candidate is extremely popular and can make inroads with Hispanics, he or she could win. David Dreier (R)'s district was eliminated on this map. He could run here because it contains part of his old district with Upland but he is not familiar with the mostly Democratic Covina or Pomona voters so a Democrat could win here with large margins from those two cities. As for Hispanic representation, the district is nearly 50% 18+ Hispanic now. They would not make up the majority of the votes but there may be enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic in the Democratic primary because many of the white voters in this district are Republican.
California's 38th District Grace Napolitano (D) Medium Aquamarine
Obama 144,232 66%, McCain 69,883 32%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 22.4% Asian, 63.8% Hispanic, 10.8% White
Demographics 18+: 24.5% Asian, 59.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White
Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 71% Hispanic, 14% White
Communities of Interest: Pico Rivera, Baldwin Park, Diamond Bar
Status: Safe Democratic
This district becomes more Republican by losing Norwalk and picking up Diamond Bar. Napolitano lives in Norwalk but she should run here since it contains most of her old district. Also, the district loses Hispanics but the 60% Hispanic 18+ population should protect Napolitano.
California's 39th District Linda Sanchez (D) Mocassin
Obama 126,071 72%, McCain 46,502 26%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 7.2% African American, 9.4% Asian, 71.4% Hispanic, 10.5% White
Demographics: 7.5% African American, 10.8% Asian, 67.6% Hispanic, 12.8% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 10% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Park., Lynwood, Lakewood
Status: Safe Democratic
The district becomes more Democratic and Hispanic with the loss of swing areas such as La Mirada and the addition of heavily Hispanic Huntington Park and Bell Gardens. Sanchez should have no problems here.
California's 40th District Ed Royce (R) Fireback
Obama 116,698 48%, McCain 122,690 50%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 18.2% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 36.8% White
Demographics 18+: 19.1% Asian, 35.5% Hispanic, 41.2% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 49% White
Communities of Interest: La Mirada, Fullerton, Orange
Status: Likely Republican
Royce's district keeps most of its old territory but expands a bit. It picks up the swing area La Mirada in Los Angeles County as well as Whittier. It loses marginal Los Alamitos. These changes make the district a bit more Democratic. Royce is popular here though so he should win. If Royce retires at the end of the decade though, a Democrat should have a good shot here.
San Bernardino Area
California's 41st District Jerry Lewis (R) Lightsteelblue
Obama 104,162 42%, McCain 138,074 56%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 7.5% African American, 4.4% Asian, 34.1% Hispanic, 50.5% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 4.8% Asian, 29.4% Hispanic, 55.9% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 23% Hispanic, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Banning
Status: Safe Republican
The district grew so it will shed some territory. It lost most of rural San Bernardino County including Needles. It also loses Republican leaning Hemet and San Jacinto. It does pick up Republican neighborhoods in Rancho Cucamonga though. Rancho Cucamonga is not next to the bulk of the district's population which is east of San Bernardino and Riverside. Rancho Cucamonga can be considered a community of interest though because it has similar demographics and voting habits with the rest of the district. Also, connecting Rancho Cucamonga to the rest of the district does not create convoluted lines.
Obama 145,652 46%, McCain 167,287 52%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 21.3% Asian, 15.6% Hispanic, 57.7% White
Demographics 18+: 21.8% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 54% White
Communities of Interest: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest
Status: Safe Republican
Gary Miller's home is now in the heavily Hispanic 38th district but I believe he will run here since this district contains much of his old territory. The district is now completely in Orange County and it picks up Democratic leaning Irvine. These changes do not change the political composition of the district much though. Miller should be safe.
California's 43rd District Joe Baca (D) Magenta
Obama 105,761 65%, McCain 54,576 33%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 11.0% African American, 5.3% Asian, 61.2% Hispanic, 20.2% White
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 6.1% Asian, 56.1% Hispanic, 24.5% White
Old Demographics: 12% African American, 3% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 23% White
Communities of Interest: Fontana, Colton, San Bernardino
Status: Safe Democratic
The district becomes more Republican by losing Democratic areas in Ontario and Colton as well as picking up part of Republican leaning Redlands. The adult population of the district is 56% Hispanic and they make up a large portion of the Democratic primary voters so Baca should be safe in this 65% Obama district.
California's 44th District Vacant (R) Medium Violetred
Obama 100,306 61% McCain 59,648 37%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 9.0% African American, 5.6% Asian, 60.1% Hispanic, 22.8% White
Demographics 18+: 9.3% African American, 6.5% Asian, 54.8% Hispanic, 27.3% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Communities of Interest: Ontario, Riverside, Moreno Valley
Status: Likely Democratic
This is the new Hispanic majority district in the Inland Empire which contains Hispanic neighborhoods in Ontario, Colton, Riverside and Moreno Valley. Ken Calvert currently represents the 44th district on the current map and the 44th district is a swing district. I doubt he will run in a district that voted 61% for Obama so any strong Democrat who runs here should win the general election.
California's 45th District Ken Calvert (R) (formerly the 44th) Turquoise
Obama 107,459 51% McCain 101,375 48%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 6.7% African American, 8.0% Asian, 43.6% Hispanic, 38.6% White
Demographics 18+: 6.8% African American, 8.8% Asian, 38.4% Hispanic, 43.6% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Corona, Riverside, San Jacinto
Status: Toss Up
Although this district is numbered the 45th which Mary Bono Mack (R) currently represents, she probably will not run here since this district does not contain most of her current territory. This district at first looks like a Republican lean because Obama overperformed usual Democratic percentages. Democrats have a shot here though because Ken Calvert (R) is a weak incumbent and won in 2008 only because of margins in Orange County. His district loses Orange County while picking up Democratic Perris and marginal San Jacinto. His district is also quickly trending Democratic. Also, Bill Hedrick (D) in 2008 received almost no support from national Democrats but lost by only 2 points against Calvert. If Hedrick runs in a good Democratic year and receives support from national Democrats, he should win.
California's 46th District Dana Rohrabacher (R) Tomato
Obama 155,425 58% McCain 106,910 40%
Change: Obama +20
Demographics: 8.1% African American, 18.3% Asian, 32.7% Hispanic, 37.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 18.9% Asian, 28.2% Hispanic, 42.4% White
Old Demographics: 1% African American, 15% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 62% White
Communities of Interest: Long Beach, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach
Status: Lean Democratic
The district becomes more Democratic with the addition of Democratic areas in Long Beach. The removal of Costa Mesa and most of Huntington Beach helps too. Rohrabacher is popular but even he should not win in a 58% Obama district. Also, the new Democratic voters from Long Beach are not familiar with him so he will not be able to win by taking away Democratic votes. An issue with this district is that western Long Beach may not be considered a community of interest with the rest of the district. It should work because it is in the same city limits as eastern Long Beach which is currently in the 46th District and should be a community of interest with the Orange County part of the district. Also, the addition of most of Long Beach makes the district compact and it formerly had a thin line going to Rancho Palos Verdes.
California's 47th District Loretta Sanchez (D) Thistle
Obama 86,950 59%, McCain 57,839 39%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 1.6% Asian, 65.7% Hispanic, 14.0% White
Demographics 18+: 19.7% Asian, 60.2% Hispanic, 17.3% White
Old Demographics: 14% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 17% White
Communities of Interest: Anaheim, Santa Ana, Garden Grove
Status: Safe Democratic
Sanchez's district does not change much because it is already a Hispanic majority district and it contains similar communities. She picks up more of Garden Grove which may not be the best idea because her 2010 challenger Van Tran (R) is popular there. She should be safe because she won by double digits in 2010, an extremely Republican year and if she were strong then, she is strong now.
California's 48th District John Campbell (R) SandyBrown
Obama 159,835 46%, McCain 179,461 52%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 18.6% Hispanic, 66.5% White
Demographics 18+: 11.2% Asian, 15.9% Hispanic, 69.5% White
Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 68% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach
Status: Safe Republican
Campbell's district loses Irvine and becomes the coastal district. It picks up Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa. Although the district is narrow, it certainly picks up communities of interest by getting all the beach towns. The district becomes more Republican with the loss of Irvine but Campbell was pretty safe anyway. This district may be open to voting for a libertarian Democrat if they view Campbell as one of the big government Republicans but for now, this district remains Republican.
California's 49th District Mary Bono (R) (formerly the 45th District) IndianRed
Obama 112,830 45%, McCain 135,459 54%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 32.0% Hispanic, 54.8% White
Demographics 18+: 6.2% Asian, 27.2% Hispanic, 60.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 38% Hispanic, 50% White
Communities of Interest: Lake Elsinore, Temecula, Palm Springs
Status: Safe Republican
Bono's old district contained Moreno Valley and voted for Obama by 5 points. Her district is now more Republican with the removal of Moreno Valley and heavily Hispanic Coachella. Her district picks up Republican Murrieta and Temecula though. Although Palm Springs leans Democratic, Murrieta and Temecula more than cancel out the Democratic votes there. Democrats probably would like to put Palm Springs in the 45th district so Steve Pougnet (D), the Palm Springs mayor can run for that seat but dividing the Palm Springs corridor between three districts would be violate communities of interest rules. Anyway, Pougnet does not have to live in the 45th district if he decides to run in it. The 45th district is close to Palm Springs so carpetbagging should not be a big issue.
San Diego Area
California's 50th District Brian Bilbray (R) Powder Blue
Obama 203,346 59%, McCain 136,596 39%
Change: Obama +16
Demographics: 18.4% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White
Demographics 18+: 18.5% Asian, 12.4% Hispanic, 62.8% White
Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 66% White
Communities of Interest: Del Mar, San Diego
Status: Lean Democratic
Bilbray has represented San Diego for a number of years and he is used to running in districts that lean Democratic. His old 50th District voted for Obama by a couple of points. He should lose in this district though because he picks up more of San Diego City including some white liberal areas from the 53rd. This increases the Obama percentage to 59% and that should be enough to beat him. This district also fits the guidelines for the commission by remaining compact and taking in similar neighborhoods. It is possible Susan Davis (D) from the 53rd will run here because her district's white population may be too small for her and the 50th district contains part of her old district. She ran against Bilbray in 2000 and it will be an interesting rematch. She should win though.
California's 51st District Bob Filner (D) Saddle Brown
Obama 114,954 59%, McCain 78,621 40%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 67.2% Hispanic, 20.9% White
Demographics 18+: 7.2% Asian, 62.4% Hispanic, 25.0% White
Old Demographics: 9% African American, 12% Asian, 53% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Coachella, El Centro, Chula Vista
Status: Safe Democratic
Bob Filner is a popular representative but the commission will create a Hispanic majority district with parts of San Diego. He has handily beaten back primary challenges from Hispanics though in a 53% Hispanic district. He won with support from African Americans and Asians and he loses many of those voters to the 53rd district and the 51st district's Hispanic population rose to 67% under the new lines. He retains most of his old territory so he may survive. Nonetheless, his district becomes more Hispanic by picking up Coachella and Indio. I have also heard of proposals to connect Imperial County to an eastern San Diego County district. Those areas do not have much in common though but it is necessary to connect them so there is a district designed to elect a Hispanic representative in the San Diego area. The district becomes more Republican too though by losing National City and some Democratic neighborhoods in San Diego but remains safe for any Democrat. Filner may decide to run in the 53rd district which has a larger white population.
California's 52nd District Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) OliveDrub
Obama 126,471 42%, McCain 171,794 57%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 5.5% Asian, 23.5% Hispanic, 63.5% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 20.0% Hispanic, 67.8% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 73% White
Communities of Interest: Poway, San Diego, El Cajon
Status: Safe Republican
The district was already Republican but it becomes even more Republican. It loses most of San Diego City except the northeastern area and picks up Republican leaning Escondido. Hunter should have no problems here.
California's 53rd District Susan Davis (D) Gainsboro
Obama 132,477 69%, McCain 56,420 29%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 10.1% African American, 12.2% Asian, 46.6% Hispanic, 28.0% White
Demographics 18+: 10.1% African American, 13.0% Asian, 41.0% Hispanic, 33.2% White
Old Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 29% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: National City, San Diego
Status: Safe Democratic
Davis's district becomes less white as it loses more northern parts of San Diego and picks up National City. These changes make the district more Democratic but less safe for Davis. She faces the possibility of a primary challenge from a minority candidate. She should survive because many of the voters in the new 53rd are from her old district and whites probably outnumber Hispanics in the Democratic primary. Also, Davis should get support from African Americans and Asians. Filner may give her a primary challenge here though. This may make her decide to run in the 50th district against Bilbray. It would be a rematch of the 2000 race where they challenged each other in a similar district.
Have any suggestions on the map? Do you have any maps you want to share? Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts.
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