Hillary has almost no chance of getting the nomination. She is behind in pledged and superdelegates and has no way she can come back. She still will not quit. Most presidential hopefuls in Hillary's posistion would have left the race by now. Hillary is a fighter so she will not quit. Is that the real reason? We will discuss why Hillary is still in the race and why she got to where she is now.
When she first announced that she was running for president, all the polls showed her with a wide lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards. She had more money than any of her opponents and she had much higher name recognition than her opponents. That made her belive that she would be the nominee. She ran a general election strategy by going to the center in issues. She knew Iowa was a weak state for her so she got the primary calender to be front loaded with states. She planned to make up a poor showing in Iowa and sweep Super Tuesday. Then she began to falter, she had the issue of having two different opinions about drivers liscenses for illegal immigrants in New York. Hillary Clinton gave Obama an opening to be the anti war candidate by not regretting that she voted for it. That is why Obama began to strike from nowhere and pulled off a win Iowa. Then Hillary came back and won New Hampshire by playing a woman who was bullied by the men. Next, Bill Clinton attacked Obama which later turned out to be a mistake. Obama crushed Clinton in South Carolina by 28 points. The Clintons should have seen it coming, Obama took 83% of the African American vote in Nevada. The Clintons pulled the race card by trying to diminish Martin Luther King's role in history and comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson. If Hillary played the role of an anti war candidate, she would be the Democrats' nominee. Then Hillary did not sweep Super Tuesday as she hoped. She had not set up organizations in the remaining states because she believed the race would be over by then. She kept losing states but came back on March 4th. Then she lied about what happened when she went to Bosnia which did sway enough voters to give Pennsylvania to Obama. The primaries on May 6th told Hillary she would not be the nominee. The delegates of Michigan and Florida will count with half the vote but that will not be enough. Hillary was trapped by the rules she made. Perhaps if Michigan and Florida did count in the begining, Hillary would be the nominee. She herself gave Obama the nomination inadvertantly. Now the superdelegates must decide after the last primaries.
We have thoroughly discussed why Hillary is in this posistion now. Now here is why we believe she will not exit the race. The shock of not being out on top and believing she was inevitable is keeping Hillary in the race. She might still believe she can get it or maybe she wants to make a deal with Obama. It could be that she will be his VP. If Hillary does not drop out a little while after the last primaries, we were thinking that maybe Obama could offer to nominate her to be a Supreme Court justice if one retires. Then again, after the last primaries, the pressure for Hillary to drop out might be too much to resist.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Sunday, May 25, 2008
A few more VP picks for Obama
Now that the VP search for Obama has gotten underway, we have a few more ideas about who his VP will be. Here are more possible VPs for Barack Obama:
Ed Rendell: He is the governer of Pennsylvania and he is Jewish. Rendell is extremely popular in the Philadelphia area and that would be very helpful to Obama if Rendell were on the ticket. Having Rendell on the ticket would almost guarentee an Obama win in Pennsylvania. Since Rendell is Jewish, he might help Obama in Florida. Obama might not do as well with Jewish voters as recent Democratic nominees but with Rendell on the ticket, that might not happen.
Ted Strickland: He is the governer of Ohio. That is another competitive state Obama must win in the fall. Strickland will be very helpful to Obama in that state. Another thing is that Strickland has the life story of a working class white in Ohio (Strickland's father was a steelworker who did not go to high school.) Strickland will help Obama with working class whites. That is a group Obama needs to do well with if he wants to be president. Strickland has some experience as he has been in the House for six terms before running for governer. Strickland seems to have the right experience but it might not be enough.
Tom Daschle: No one seems to talk about him as a possible VP candidate. He is an Obama supporter and the former majority leader in the Senate. He is experienced and we believe his the possible VP that Obama can trust the most. Daschle probably cannot deliever South Dakota to Obama and it has only 3 electoral votes anyway. Daschle's wife, Linda Daschle is a lobbyist and that might not go well for Obama since he will not take contributions from lobbyists.
Out of these three, we believe Strickland will be the biggest help to Obama. With the other possible VPs, he is right below Webb on the possibility list. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.
Ed Rendell: He is the governer of Pennsylvania and he is Jewish. Rendell is extremely popular in the Philadelphia area and that would be very helpful to Obama if Rendell were on the ticket. Having Rendell on the ticket would almost guarentee an Obama win in Pennsylvania. Since Rendell is Jewish, he might help Obama in Florida. Obama might not do as well with Jewish voters as recent Democratic nominees but with Rendell on the ticket, that might not happen.
Ted Strickland: He is the governer of Ohio. That is another competitive state Obama must win in the fall. Strickland will be very helpful to Obama in that state. Another thing is that Strickland has the life story of a working class white in Ohio (Strickland's father was a steelworker who did not go to high school.) Strickland will help Obama with working class whites. That is a group Obama needs to do well with if he wants to be president. Strickland has some experience as he has been in the House for six terms before running for governer. Strickland seems to have the right experience but it might not be enough.
Tom Daschle: No one seems to talk about him as a possible VP candidate. He is an Obama supporter and the former majority leader in the Senate. He is experienced and we believe his the possible VP that Obama can trust the most. Daschle probably cannot deliever South Dakota to Obama and it has only 3 electoral votes anyway. Daschle's wife, Linda Daschle is a lobbyist and that might not go well for Obama since he will not take contributions from lobbyists.
Out of these three, we believe Strickland will be the biggest help to Obama. With the other possible VPs, he is right below Webb on the possibility list. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.
Will Texas be in Play?
All the focus of competitive states has been on states that were competitive in 2004. Now many pundits are talking about states such as Georgia and Mississippi with large African American populations being competitive. No one has ever mentioned Texas, though. The reason is that Texas's African American population is close to the national average and McCain should do well with Hispanics because moderate stances on immigration. Obama can generate a massive turnout of African Americans but that alone will not be enough to put Texas in play. But we have noticed many other factors that favor Obama.
Obama has an appeal to the highly educated so he will do well in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth mertoplex with rich people along with parts of Houston. The Democrat running against Cornyn for Senate is Rick Noreiga who is Hispanic. He could help Obama by generating a big Hispanic turnout while Obama helped him by bringing out the African Americans. The 2008 election seems to be resembling the statewide elections in 2002 in Texas. That year, Tony Sanchez who was Hispanic ran for governer against Rick Perry. Ron Klink was African American and ran against Cornyn. Sanchez lost by 18 points and Klink lost by 12 points. Hispanic turnout only increased significantly in Laredo where Sanchez came from and African American turnout only increased significantly in Dallas. The two reasons that those two Democrats lost were that they were not running for president and it was not a presidential election year. As it is an election year and Hispanic were about 30% of the Democratic primary voters on March 4th, they will probably turnout in higher numbers. Another thing is that Bush won Texas by 23 points but it would be narrower than that anyway because Bush was from there and would do better in Texas than a general Republican candidate. McCain will not be able to excite the religious conservatives like Bush did. These reasons make Texas be competitive.
A poll done by Rasmussen earlier this month showed McCain ahead of Obama by five points. That seems to be what we believe his lead is. Another poll done by Rasmussen a few weeks ago showed Cornyn with a lead of four points. That race will be close. Although Obama does face an uphill battle in Texas, it is a state where he should spend some time and money.
Please feel free to comment this post.
Obama has an appeal to the highly educated so he will do well in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth mertoplex with rich people along with parts of Houston. The Democrat running against Cornyn for Senate is Rick Noreiga who is Hispanic. He could help Obama by generating a big Hispanic turnout while Obama helped him by bringing out the African Americans. The 2008 election seems to be resembling the statewide elections in 2002 in Texas. That year, Tony Sanchez who was Hispanic ran for governer against Rick Perry. Ron Klink was African American and ran against Cornyn. Sanchez lost by 18 points and Klink lost by 12 points. Hispanic turnout only increased significantly in Laredo where Sanchez came from and African American turnout only increased significantly in Dallas. The two reasons that those two Democrats lost were that they were not running for president and it was not a presidential election year. As it is an election year and Hispanic were about 30% of the Democratic primary voters on March 4th, they will probably turnout in higher numbers. Another thing is that Bush won Texas by 23 points but it would be narrower than that anyway because Bush was from there and would do better in Texas than a general Republican candidate. McCain will not be able to excite the religious conservatives like Bush did. These reasons make Texas be competitive.
A poll done by Rasmussen earlier this month showed McCain ahead of Obama by five points. That seems to be what we believe his lead is. Another poll done by Rasmussen a few weeks ago showed Cornyn with a lead of four points. That race will be close. Although Obama does face an uphill battle in Texas, it is a state where he should spend some time and money.
Please feel free to comment this post.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Obama/Edwards '08?
Is that possible? Although Edwards is not our number one pick for Obama's VP, he is on our list. We always believed that in the end, Edwards would endorse Obama over Clinton. Edwards teamed up with Obama in the debates with Hillary. His style of campaigning was closer to Obama's than Hillary's. But what will an Obama/Edwards ticket bring?
Edwards will help Obama among the working class. That is a group Edwards is popular with and Obama has been struggling to gain. This will be important in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Edwards could help Obama in North Carolina. It is true that Kerry did not do as well with these voters as Gore even with Edwards on the ticket. Also, Bush increased his popular vote margin in North Carolina over his in 2000. Here is why those two things happened, Edwards was not very prominent during the campaign. The focus was not on him. Obama could give Edwards to be more prominent and campaign in heavily working class areas in battleground states. If Edwards does have more prominence, he can make North Carolina become extremely close or even give the state to Obama. North Carolina will probably be close anyway due to the large African American population there which will probably turn out in record numbers for Obama along with the Universities. Obama will try to win South Carolina by creating a heavy turnout of African Americans but definiteky will be helped because Edwards was born there. Edwards's message is that there are two Americas, upper class and lower class and that the government ignores the lower class. It is similar to Obama's message of change and that we are one nation.
Not everything about having Edwards as VP will be positive. Edwards is young and exciting but he does not have much experience in politics. To get the experience factor smaller, Obama would need an experienced VP candidate. Another problem with putting Edwards on the ticket would be that he has already tried for that spot. Some voters may believe that Edwards already had his chance. But it might not be a very big deal because the VP spot is much smaller than the presidential spot. A small issue may be the $400 haircut. Republicans may say someone who pays that much for his hair would not be in touch with the ordinary American. That likely would not outweigh what Edwards has said about the ordinary American. None of this could be a factor because Edwards has said that he would not take the spot. Since this is politics, that may easily change but Republicans may use that against him. Many of these factors may not be a problem because there will probably not be much focus on Edwards if he is VP.
Alltogether, we believe Edwards will have a positive effect on the campaign if he is chosen. Due to the experience issue, we still believe Jim Webb is the best pick for Obama. We will soon post something about a possible VP for Obama we have not mentioned, Ted Strickland, the Governer of Ohio.
Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting.
Edwards will help Obama among the working class. That is a group Edwards is popular with and Obama has been struggling to gain. This will be important in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Edwards could help Obama in North Carolina. It is true that Kerry did not do as well with these voters as Gore even with Edwards on the ticket. Also, Bush increased his popular vote margin in North Carolina over his in 2000. Here is why those two things happened, Edwards was not very prominent during the campaign. The focus was not on him. Obama could give Edwards to be more prominent and campaign in heavily working class areas in battleground states. If Edwards does have more prominence, he can make North Carolina become extremely close or even give the state to Obama. North Carolina will probably be close anyway due to the large African American population there which will probably turn out in record numbers for Obama along with the Universities. Obama will try to win South Carolina by creating a heavy turnout of African Americans but definiteky will be helped because Edwards was born there. Edwards's message is that there are two Americas, upper class and lower class and that the government ignores the lower class. It is similar to Obama's message of change and that we are one nation.
Not everything about having Edwards as VP will be positive. Edwards is young and exciting but he does not have much experience in politics. To get the experience factor smaller, Obama would need an experienced VP candidate. Another problem with putting Edwards on the ticket would be that he has already tried for that spot. Some voters may believe that Edwards already had his chance. But it might not be a very big deal because the VP spot is much smaller than the presidential spot. A small issue may be the $400 haircut. Republicans may say someone who pays that much for his hair would not be in touch with the ordinary American. That likely would not outweigh what Edwards has said about the ordinary American. None of this could be a factor because Edwards has said that he would not take the spot. Since this is politics, that may easily change but Republicans may use that against him. Many of these factors may not be a problem because there will probably not be much focus on Edwards if he is VP.
Alltogether, we believe Edwards will have a positive effect on the campaign if he is chosen. Due to the experience issue, we still believe Jim Webb is the best pick for Obama. We will soon post something about a possible VP for Obama we have not mentioned, Ted Strickland, the Governer of Ohio.
Please feel free to share your thoughts by commenting.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Recap of May 6th Primaries
Obama has taken North Carolina by 14 points with 90% of the precints reporting. That number is likely to hold. This took away Hillary's chance for a surprise win and gave Obama a chance to make up his loss in Pennsylvania by delegates and popular vote. Currently, Obama is leading by 212,000 votes. He won due to large margins in the counties containing the big cities and eastern North Carolina. They easily erased Hillary's small lead in western North Carolina.
Indiana is currently too close to call from most networks. Hillary has a 39,000 vote lead with 86% of the precints reporting. This race is closer than we expected. We expected for the race to be called for Hillary much earlier because exit polls showed her with a four point lead. Ohio which had the exit polls showing the same lead before votes came in gave Hillary a ten point win. Obama is running close due to carrying Marion County which contains Indainapolis by 61,000 votes. Since Marion County is about a quarter African American, we expected Obama's margin there to be narrower than his current lead of 34 points. Exit polls show high African American turnout and that is probably what happened in Indianapolis.
We believed that the current percentage margin in Indiana would be reached after Lake County which is in the Chicago media market and has 25% African American population had its votes counted. It will probably be awhile until all the votes are counted there. One reason it is slow is that there was high turnout in Lake County. Although we are currently giving Indiana to Hillary, her winning margin will probably be around 10,000 votes. It could be even narrower and with help from a few more precints in Bloomington and Indainapolis, what happened in Missouri might happen in Indiana.
One thing is certain, Hillary did not receive the win she needed in North Carolina and if she loses Indiana, she will be in big trouble. She cannot make the case Obama cannot win big states (If she calls New Jersey a big state, she must note North Carolina has more people.) The superdelegates will not come flocking to her side and Obama has proved that he can survive a strong attack. That attack was Reverand Wright.
Please feel free to comment on this post.
Indiana is currently too close to call from most networks. Hillary has a 39,000 vote lead with 86% of the precints reporting. This race is closer than we expected. We expected for the race to be called for Hillary much earlier because exit polls showed her with a four point lead. Ohio which had the exit polls showing the same lead before votes came in gave Hillary a ten point win. Obama is running close due to carrying Marion County which contains Indainapolis by 61,000 votes. Since Marion County is about a quarter African American, we expected Obama's margin there to be narrower than his current lead of 34 points. Exit polls show high African American turnout and that is probably what happened in Indianapolis.
We believed that the current percentage margin in Indiana would be reached after Lake County which is in the Chicago media market and has 25% African American population had its votes counted. It will probably be awhile until all the votes are counted there. One reason it is slow is that there was high turnout in Lake County. Although we are currently giving Indiana to Hillary, her winning margin will probably be around 10,000 votes. It could be even narrower and with help from a few more precints in Bloomington and Indainapolis, what happened in Missouri might happen in Indiana.
One thing is certain, Hillary did not receive the win she needed in North Carolina and if she loses Indiana, she will be in big trouble. She cannot make the case Obama cannot win big states (If she calls New Jersey a big state, she must note North Carolina has more people.) The superdelegates will not come flocking to her side and Obama has proved that he can survive a strong attack. That attack was Reverand Wright.
Please feel free to comment on this post.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
State Rankings for Hillary vs. McCain
These are how the states stand if Hillary somehow mamages to get the nomination. She will be not be competitive in many of the southern states that Obama could bring into play. She will have a better chace in Florida than Obama due to the large elderly population there. Hillary will not be as strong in the West as Obama. There will be less competitive states and we believe that except for a few exceptions such as Arkansas, this election will be alot like the ones in 2000 and 2004. One big problem for Hillary, if she gets the nomination, many African Americans may believe she stole the election from Obama and many might not vote or even go to McCain. The rules of the rankings will be the same with the McCain vs. Obama rankings. Now here are the rankings:
Solid Hillary (143 electoral votes)
California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)
Probably Hillary (29 electoral votes)
Conneticut (7) Delaware (3) Maine (4) New Jersey (15)
Leaning Hillary (34 electoral votes)
Arkansas (6) Michigan (17) Washington (11)
Toss Up (116 electoral votes)
Florida (27) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Wisconsin (10)
Solid Hillary (143 electoral votes)
California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)
Probably Hillary (29 electoral votes)
Conneticut (7) Delaware (3) Maine (4) New Jersey (15)
Leaning Hillary (34 electoral votes)
Arkansas (6) Michigan (17) Washington (11)
Toss Up (116 electoral votes)
Florida (27) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Wisconsin (10)
Leaning McCain (33 electoral votes)
Colorado (9) Missouri (11) Virginia (13)
Probably McCain (5 electoral votes)
West Virginia (5)
Solid McCain (178 electoral votes)
Alabama (9) Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Georgia (15) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kansas (6) Kentucky (8) Lousiana (9) Mississippi (6) Montana (3) Nebraska (5) North Carolina (15) North Dakota (3)Oklahoma (7) South Carolina (8) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (34) Utah (5) Wyoming (3)
Total: Hillary(206) McCain (216)
Even though McCain has a narrower lead against Hillary in the electoral vote count here, he has 178 electoral votes solidly for him. That's 35 more than Hillary's 143 solid votes. This shows that even though at first it appears that Hillary will have an easier time beating McCain the opposite is true.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Who will Win What States?
We are posting this list to show you the place where states stand for the general election. If a state is solid Dem. or Rep., this means that state is not competitive now and probably will not be competitive. If a state is probably Dem. or Rep., this means that state is not competitive currently but the states could become competitive later. If a state is leaning Dem. or Rep., this means that state is competitive but one party has a slight lead. If a state is a toss up, that means that state will be very competitive in the general and each party has a shot at winning that state. Here are the rankings for the states if Obama is running against McCain.
Solid Obama (143 electoral votes)
California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)
Probably Obama (18 electoral votes)
Delaware (3) Maine (4) Washington (11)
Leaning Obama (46 electoral votes)
Conneticut (7) Michigan (17) New Jersey (15) Oregon (7)
Toss up (108 electoral votes)
Colorado (9) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)
Leaning McCain (38 electoral votes)
Florida (27) Missouri (11)
Probably McCain (74 electoral votes)
Alabama (9) Arkansas (6) Georgia (15) Kansas (6) Louisiana (9) Mississippi (6) North Carolina (15) South Carolina (8)
Solid McCain (115 electoral votes)
Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kentucky (8) Montana (3) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (34) Utah (5) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)
Total: Obama (207) McCain (227)
Many of the states that are probably McCain are states you might expect to be solid McCain. We put the southern states that are on there because Obama might be able to turn out a large number of African Americans. For Kansas, the governer might be Obama's VP. If Jim Webb is picked for VP, expect Virginia to move to lean Obama. Please feel free to share your thoughts.
Solid Obama (143 electoral votes)
California (55) Hawaii (4) Illinois (21) Maryland (10) Massachuttses (12) New York (31) Rhode Island (4) Vermont (3) Washington D.C (3)
Probably Obama (18 electoral votes)
Delaware (3) Maine (4) Washington (11)
Leaning Obama (46 electoral votes)
Conneticut (7) Michigan (17) New Jersey (15) Oregon (7)
Toss up (108 electoral votes)
Colorado (9) Iowa (7) Minniesota (10) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Pennsylvania (21) Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)
Leaning McCain (38 electoral votes)
Florida (27) Missouri (11)
Probably McCain (74 electoral votes)
Alabama (9) Arkansas (6) Georgia (15) Kansas (6) Louisiana (9) Mississippi (6) North Carolina (15) South Carolina (8)
Solid McCain (115 electoral votes)
Alaska (3) Arizona (10) Idaho (4) Indiana (11) Kentucky (8) Montana (3) Nebraska (5) North Dakota (3) Oklahoma (7) South Dakota (3) Tennessee (11) Texas (34) Utah (5) West Virginia (5) Wyoming (3)
Total: Obama (207) McCain (227)
Many of the states that are probably McCain are states you might expect to be solid McCain. We put the southern states that are on there because Obama might be able to turn out a large number of African Americans. For Kansas, the governer might be Obama's VP. If Jim Webb is picked for VP, expect Virginia to move to lean Obama. Please feel free to share your thoughts.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
The Republican's Solid South?
The South used to be heavily Democratic but since the civil rights movement, it has trended Republican. Now most political analysts say the Demcrats cannot win the general without winning the South. That is not true but the Democrats will have a tough time winning without the South. It seems that since 1968, the only Democrats to win states in the South are southern Democrats. They are able to win states in the South by attracting enough whites to their side to make thier large majority among African Americans give them the state. This time, it might be different. Virginia will be probably be a competitive state and Arkansas will if Hillary is on the ballot. Now we will say what might happen if Obama gets the nomination.
Obama will probably try to win the South in a different way. He will try to generate a massive African American turnout. Another big factor here is that many evangelicals do not like McCain. Some of them might be racist so they will not vote for Obama. Many might stay home which means turnout for McCain drops below 2004 turnout for Bush in the South and it rises for Obama in the south above the 2004 turnout for Kerry in the South. We believe that the state in the South, Obama has the strongest chance of winning is Virginia. That state is experiencing a Democratic trend. Democrats hold the governership, one house in the state legislature and one Senate seat. They will likely hold the other one now that Mark Warner is running for it. Northern Viriginia is trending Democratic quickly, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb could not have won without it. Also, Virginia's population is 19% African American. They will probably turn out in large numbers and Northern Virginia will go strongly for Obama. It will be much easier to win Virginia with Jim Webb on the ticket (see VP picks for Barack Obama.)
Virginia is not the only state Obama has a strong chance of winning. Mississippi and South Carolina are states that both have large percentages of African Americans. South Carolina has 29%, Mississippi has 36%. These two states also have large numbers of evangelicals. If many of them do not vote but the African Americans do, Obama could win those two states. Georgia holds the same possibility.
Not only will the massive African American turnout help Obama, it will help Democrats in downballot races. It will help Mary Landrieu, the Democratic Senator from Louisiana. It will help Democrats retain Bud Cramer's open seat in Alabama. It will help in other downballot races as well.
Even if Obama loses New Jersey and a few other states in the Northeast, he might be able to win a few marginal states in the west, Ohio and win with a few victories in the South. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.
Obama will probably try to win the South in a different way. He will try to generate a massive African American turnout. Another big factor here is that many evangelicals do not like McCain. Some of them might be racist so they will not vote for Obama. Many might stay home which means turnout for McCain drops below 2004 turnout for Bush in the South and it rises for Obama in the south above the 2004 turnout for Kerry in the South. We believe that the state in the South, Obama has the strongest chance of winning is Virginia. That state is experiencing a Democratic trend. Democrats hold the governership, one house in the state legislature and one Senate seat. They will likely hold the other one now that Mark Warner is running for it. Northern Viriginia is trending Democratic quickly, Tim Kaine and Jim Webb could not have won without it. Also, Virginia's population is 19% African American. They will probably turn out in large numbers and Northern Virginia will go strongly for Obama. It will be much easier to win Virginia with Jim Webb on the ticket (see VP picks for Barack Obama.)
Virginia is not the only state Obama has a strong chance of winning. Mississippi and South Carolina are states that both have large percentages of African Americans. South Carolina has 29%, Mississippi has 36%. These two states also have large numbers of evangelicals. If many of them do not vote but the African Americans do, Obama could win those two states. Georgia holds the same possibility.
Not only will the massive African American turnout help Obama, it will help Democrats in downballot races. It will help Mary Landrieu, the Democratic Senator from Louisiana. It will help Democrats retain Bud Cramer's open seat in Alabama. It will help in other downballot races as well.
Even if Obama loses New Jersey and a few other states in the Northeast, he might be able to win a few marginal states in the west, Ohio and win with a few victories in the South. If you have any thoughts on this post, feel free to comment it.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
The Last Term for the Senator from the Last Frontier?
Alaska's Senior Senator, Ted Stevens has been a Republican Senator from Alaska since 1968. He has won more than 60% of the vote in every election as a Senator since 1970. In 2002, he won 78% of the vote.
Stevens is now heading into hot water because the Democrats have found a very strong Democrat to challenge Stevens whose name is not Tony Knowles. The popular mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich is now close to Stevens in the polls. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Stevens leading by one point. 47% of the voters in Alaska view Stevens unfavorably, compared to Begich whom only 35% view him unfavorably. Stevens and Begich each have about 80% of their own party supporting them. The key to the closeness of this race is that Begich leads Stevens in independent voters by 23 points. This could be the key for Begich because the Democrats sucess in the 2006 midterms was mostly due to a much larger percentage of moderates voting Democratic than in 2004.
Why exactly, is Stevens in big trouble after blowing away all challengers for his seat in the past and him being in the Senate since 1968? The FBI raided his home due to an ethics charge and found the man in charge of fixng up Steven's home guilty of bribing government officials.
This is why that if Stevens does not run for reelection, they should not be as worried. But the Republicans will need to find a candidate like Sarah Palin, the current Republican governer of Alaska. She was virtually unknown when she ran but won by seven points against Tony Knowles.
If you have any thoughts on this race or our post, please tell us.
Stevens is now heading into hot water because the Democrats have found a very strong Democrat to challenge Stevens whose name is not Tony Knowles. The popular mayor of Anchorage, Mark Begich is now close to Stevens in the polls. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows Stevens leading by one point. 47% of the voters in Alaska view Stevens unfavorably, compared to Begich whom only 35% view him unfavorably. Stevens and Begich each have about 80% of their own party supporting them. The key to the closeness of this race is that Begich leads Stevens in independent voters by 23 points. This could be the key for Begich because the Democrats sucess in the 2006 midterms was mostly due to a much larger percentage of moderates voting Democratic than in 2004.
Why exactly, is Stevens in big trouble after blowing away all challengers for his seat in the past and him being in the Senate since 1968? The FBI raided his home due to an ethics charge and found the man in charge of fixng up Steven's home guilty of bribing government officials.
This is why that if Stevens does not run for reelection, they should not be as worried. But the Republicans will need to find a candidate like Sarah Palin, the current Republican governer of Alaska. She was virtually unknown when she ran but won by seven points against Tony Knowles.
If you have any thoughts on this race or our post, please tell us.
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