How Harry Reid Won

 Yes, I have seen many articles describing how Harry Reid won because his ground game and campaign were superior to Sharron Angle's (R) but I will actually look at the map here and see exactly what demographics carried Reid to victory. First, I will start at the beginning: the economic downturn affected people across the United States and Nevada was no exception. Unemployment here was at 14% so many Nevadans blamed the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid for the high unemployment rate. Reid appeared to be in danger and polls showed him losing to Sue Lowden (R) who was the frontrunner in the Republican primaries. Then after saying people should trade healthcare for chickens, she lost and Sharron Angle (R) won the primary. Immediately, Harry Reid introduced Angle's extreme beliefs to the public such as how she wants Social Security Eliminated, she suggested people should use "2nd Amendment remedies" against the Government while saying rape victims should not be allowed to choose whether to have an abortion. Angle tried to keep herself quiet by staying away from reporters not from Fox News. Angle's campaign had a poor ground game compared to Reid's which was extremely organized. Due to all these factors, Reid beat the Republican wind and won by 41,000 votes. Here is a map of the 2010 election results:

Here is a map of the 2008 election results

Here is a map representing the shift from 2008 to 2010:

light blue is Democratic 0%-5%
light red is Republican 0%-5%
Red is Republican 6%-10%
Dark Red is Republican 11%+

 Nevada is an interesting state in terms of the bases. The Democratic base is Clark County which contains Las Vegas. Clark County usually does not vote overwhelmingly Democratic but since it has so many people, Democrats can win Nevada by winning Clark County with a 10% or higher margin. The Republican base is the cow counties which are the rural counties outside of Clark. These counties generally have small populations but cast large Republican margins to offset Clark County. The big bellwether in Nevada is Washoe County (Reno.) It usually votes with the statewide average and represents the state as a whole. It has an urban area with casinos that leans Democratic and some conservative rural areas. While looking at the 2008 and 2010 map, it appears that Reid performed better than Obama because there is more blue on that map. When looking at the map showing the shifts though, it reveals that Obama performed better because the shifts toward Reid where in counties with smaller populations.

As the map shows, Obama performed much better than Reid but the shift toward Angle was not uniform across the state. The shift toward Angle was most apparent in the Reno area in counties such as Douglas County.  McCain won it 56%-41% but it shifted ten points toward Angle who won it by 59%-34%. The reason for the shift here is that Angle is from the Reno area so her presence here probably gave her a few points. It was not enough to give her Washoe County (Reno) which she lost by 5 points. In Clark County, the shift was -6 for the Democrats, one point below the -7 shift statewide. It is not surprising the Republican shift in Clark County was not as strong as the rest of the state because as many news articles have mentioned, Reid turned out the Democratic base in order to win.

Surprisingly, some of the conservative "Cow Counties" which vote more Republican than the rest of the state shifted toward Reid. An example is Humboldt County on the Oregon border near Elko County. It voted 63%-33% for McCain, giving him a 30 point win. Angle though won it 57%-32% by 25 points, 5 points less than McCain while she overperfomed him by 7 points statewide. Humboldt County does not have a strong Democratic base so that would not explain the shift toward Reid. One possible explanation is that a Harry Reid endorsement by Elko County's main newspaper caused a few voters to shift to Reid and since the newspaper had a strong presence in the area. Although the endorsement probably did not influence many voters, it seemed to influence enough voters to cause Reid to perform better than Obama did. This example suggests that Reid won by not only turning out the base voters but swaying independents as well due to the inroads he made in a few conservative counties.

Overall, the real reason for Reid winning was not that he turned out the base voters but he succeeded in winning over independents too. His campaign was so strong that he even overperformed in areas with conservative leaning independents when one may expect Angle to dominate among those voters due to the independents countrywide swinging to the Republicans. Angle had enough presence in her home area to overperform there but Reid's overperformance in the northern part of the state demonstrates how Reid's support among the large groups in Nevada was so strong that it helped him even there.

Colorado Redistricting

 By winning one race by only 157 votes, Republicans control one house of the Colorado State Legislature so Democrats do not hold the trifecta in Colorado anymore. So instead of a possible Democratic gerrymander where they could retake the 3rd and 4th districts, the Democrats will probably end up with a bipartisan incumbent protection which is more favorable to the Republicans. The new Republicans may feel vulnerable because many of the new ones are in marginal districts they won in a very Republican year so the Democrats might work out a deal at protecting those Republicans in exchange for controlling congressional redistricting. That is not very likely though and I drew this map assuming it is a bipartisan deal. Ed Perlmutter (D) of Colorado's 7th district is strengthened as well as newly elected Scott Tipton (R) of Colorado's 3rd district and Cory Gardner (R) of Colorado's 4th Congressional district. In 2002, Colorado was 5-2 Republican and in 2008, it shifted to 5-2 Democratic. The Republicans have the majority in the delegation now though with 4-3. Although Republicans came back a bit in 2010, I still think Colorado is trending Democratic due to Democrats moving into the Denver area from California. This movement could make districts such as the 6th competitive in the future, but for now, all incumbents will be much safer. Now, here are the maps:

link for current maps: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer.htm?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd110_co.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

Denver area
Colorado's 1st Congressional District: Diana DeGette (D) Blue
Obama won 70% (estimate)
Demographics: 8% African American, 37% Hispanic, 49% White
Old Demographics: 10% African American, 33% Hispanic, 52% White
Major Cities: Denver, Barr Lake
Status: Safe Democratic

DeGette's district actually becomes a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic suburbs around Englewood and replaced them with more moderate suburbs such as Brighton and Barr Lake. DeGette may not like having the new territory (and she even loses some Denver neighborhoods) but since the district is still mostly in Denver, she should have no problems at all facing reelection. Her district is now the only minority majority district in Colorado.

Colorado 2 Jared Polis (D) Green
Obama won 66% (estimate)
Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 80% White
Old Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 76% White
Major Cities: Boulder, Broomfield, Aspen
Status: Safe Democratic

Polis was already safe but his district becomes a Democratic vote sink to shore up the 3rd district now held by Scott Tipton (R). If Democrats had the trifecta here, they could have unpacked this district to make the 3rd district Democratic enough for John Salazar (D) to retake but as it is, the 2nd will take Democratic areas out of the 3rd. The 2nd loses all of Adams and Larmier Counties. The 2nd is more of a Rocky Mountain district now by picking up Democratic ski resort counties such as Routt (Steamboat Springs,) Pitkin (Aspen,) and Gunnison (Crested Butte.)

North Colorado

South Colorado


Colorado 3 Scott Tipton (R) Purple
McCain won 52% (estimate)
Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 73% White
Old Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 73% White
Major Cities: Pueblo, Grand Junction
Status: Likely Republican

Under a bipartisan plan, Tipton will be strengthened but due to the current demographics, strengthening Tipton is difficult without making convoluted lines or putting the 4th district Republican in jeopardy. I strengthened Tipton by removing Pitkin County (Aspen) as well as some other ski areas that I put in the 2nd. I added conservative Park County and a few conservative rural counties in southeastern Colorado. Obama also over performed the district's usual Democratic percentage here due to high turnout in the ski areas but the district may become competitive again if Hispanics keep trending Democratic. This would be an opening for Salazar who is Hispanic and could do win enough Hispanics to beat Tipton. Salazar has an uphill battle though with the ski areas in the 2nd district though.

Colorado 4 Cory Gardner (R) Red
McCain won 52% (estimate)
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 78% White
Old Demographics: 19% Hispanic, 76% White
Major Cities: Fort Collins, Greeley, Lamar
Status: Lean Republican

Due to population purposes, strengthening this district was difficult but I still made Gardner safer. I removed some Democratic areas in Adams and Boulder Counties. The district needs to shed territory anyway due to population growth but I added Elbert County as well as the conservative rural parts of Adams and Arapahoe Counties. Betsy Markey (D) who held this district from 2008 to 2010 might be able to win in a Democratic year here but the district's changes will make winning harder for her.

Colorado 5 Doug Lamborn (R) Yellow
McCain won 59% (estimate)
Demographics: 5% African American, 13% Hispanic, 76% White
Old Demographics: 5% African, 13% Hispanic, 75% White
Major Cities: Colorado Springs, Castle Rock
Status: Safe Republican

At a first glance, this district appears to undergo major changes but population wise, it does not. It just loses some rural counties to the west to make the 3rd district more Republican while picking up a large portion of Douglas County. Lamborn was already safe with strongly Republican Colorado Springs in his district but he is just as safe now, if not safer.

Colorado 6 Mike Coffman (R) Teal
McCain won 52% (estimate)
Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 82% White
Old Demographics: 8% Hispanic, 84% White
Major Cities: Parker, Centennial
Status: Likely Republican

Coffman's district says pretty similar demographically but his district becomes more difficult to hold. He picks up a large portion of Lakewood which formally was in the Democratic leaning 7th district while losing part of heavily Republican Douglas County. Although Coffman may be safe now, Jefferson and Araphaoe Counties are becoming more Democratic and now that they have more people in the district, Coffman may be in trouble in the end of the decade. That should however give him enough time to become entrenched in his district so he can fend away any challenge. The Republicans probably want Coffman to have more territory but that will be hard because the 3rd and 4th districts need their Republican areas.

Colorado 7 Ed Perlmutter (D) Orange
Obama won 62% (estimate)
Demographics: 7% African American, 27% Hispanic, 60% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 26% Hispanic, 61% White
Major Cities: Aurora, Lakewood, Arvada
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Obama won 59% under the current lines, the district was originally drawn as a swing district so Perlmutter will probably have a safer district on his wish list. This is what the new map does by adding in a few Denver neighborhoods. It also picks up more of Democratic Aurora while losing the less Democratic parts of Lakewood. Perlmutter also gains more of Adams County by picking up more of Westminister although he loses the rural eastern part to the 4th district. Perlmutter should be much safer, although he seemed to be doing fine already.

Maryland Redistricting, 7-1 D

 Like in 2001, Democrats hold the trifecta in Maryland again. This means that not only do they control the Governorship, they also control both houses of the state legislature. In 2001, the congressional delegation was 4-4 but Democrats redrew the maps to make a favorable Democratic map that accomplished its goal of removing 2 of the 4 Republican representatives. After 2002, there were no party changes until 2008 when Frank Kratovli (D) ran in the 1st district which contains conservative Baltimore suburbs and the Eastern Shore. He barely won against an extremist candidate. Unfortunately for the Democrats, he lost in 2010 by 13 points. Therefore, the delegation has returned to its original 6-2 Democrats. Maryland has turned more blue though since 2002 due to more African Americans moving into Prince Georges and Charles Counties. Also, Hispanics, Asians and white liberals are moving into Montgomery County and even Frederick County. The Baltimore suburbs are actually trending Republican but that's a different post for a different day.

Still, with Maryland trending Democratic overall, it is now possible to construct a 7-1 Democratic map. I have even seen some 8-0 Democratic maps but some districts are too shaky and can result in a dummymander when Republicans are able to pick up 1,2 or even 3 of those seats. I chose to draw a 7-1 map because I think it is close to what the state legislature will draw. While drawing the map, I made sure the 4th and 7th districts remained majority African American because of the VRA requiring 2 African American majority districts. While drawing the map, I made sure no district except for the Republican 6th fell below 54% Obama. Also, I made sure 6 of the districts were at least 58% for Obama. This map should protect all the Democratic incumbents, one Republican incumbent and create a new district that leans Democratic. Now here are some helpful links:

Maryland's current map: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer.htm?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd110_md.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

                                     Statewide map of Maryland
Maryland's 1st Congressional District: Andy Harris (R) (blue)
Partisan Data: Obama 137,680 54%, McCain 113,225 44%
Demographics: 23% African American, 5% Hispanic, 68% White
Old District's Partisan Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%
Major Cities: Annapolis, Salisbury
Status: Likely Democratic

 This district makes some major changes when I moved conservative suburbs in Harford and Anne Arundel out into other districts such as the 6th and 7th while adding in Democratic Annapolis and some neighborhoods in heavily Democratic Prince Georges County and places in Anne Arundel County such as Odenton which will become more Democratic due to in migration by African Americans. Harris's base is in conservative Harford County which I removed. Frank Kratovli (D), the representative before 2010 of the 1st now has a great shot at retaking this district because of the new Democratic areas in the district. The district's Democratic lean may be overstated due to high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County but as the areas in Anne Arundel keep getting more Democratic, they should offset any drop in turnout. Also, Kratovli tends to over perform in the Eastern Shore so with big margins in Prince Georges and Anne Arundel Counties, he should win here.

                                        Baltimore Area

Maryland's 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) (Green)
Partisan Data: Obama 155,376 58%, McCain 107,691 40%
Demographics: 24% African American, 68% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Major Cities: Baltimore, Towson, Dundalk
Status: Safe Democratic

Ruppersberger's district gets less convoluted by losing all of its Anne Arundel County portions and picking up swingy Towson which was originally in the 3rd district. Although the 2nd district retains some Republican suburbs around Edgemere, it still remains Democratic by picking up more Baltimore City neighborhoods. They also help balance out the loss of some heavily Democratic precincts in Randallstown. Ruppersberger should be fine here.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) (Purple)
Partisan Data: Obama 164,297 62%, McCain 96,626 36%
Demographics: 26% African American, 8% Asian, 60% White
Old district's partisan data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Major Cities: Randallstown, Columbia, Catonsville
Status: Safe Democratic

I am aware of the fact John Sarbanes does not live in this district but it still contains Democratic Columbia. The district undergoes some major changes though. It retains parts of Baltimore County but loses nearly all of Baltimore City and all of Anne Arundel County. It even picks up some Republican areas in southern Carroll County. Sarbanes is still safe though because his district picks up some heavily African American areas in west Baltimore County, bringing the African American population in the district from 16% to 26%. I am not sure the state legislature will support this district though because in their mind, it may need more of Sarbanes's old district and they may not want to extend this into Montgomery County. Still, this is a safe district for Sarbanes.

                                        Washington Suburbs
Maryland's 4th Congressional District: Donna Edwards (D) (Red)
Partisan Data: Obama 212,819 88%, McCain 27,795 11%
Demographics: 54% African American, 17% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 21% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 85%, McCain 14%
Major Cities: Fort Washington, Chillum, Silver Spring
Status: Safe Democratic

The district remains VRA protected and gets even more Democratic although Edwards was more than safe here already. The district becomes smaller and loses more moderate areas in northern Montgomery County while picking up part of Wheaton in Montgomery County. I would have extended this district out into more swingy areas in Montgomery County but the 3rd district took them for population reasons. I am not sure if the legislature will send Edwards's district to pick up some Republican areas to help protect other incumbents or make a district similar to mine.

Maryland 5th Congressional District: Steny Hoyer (D) (yellow)
Partisan Data: Obama 176,048 66%, McCain 89,006 33%
Demographics: 36% African American, 5% Hispanic, 53% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 66% McCain 33%
Major Cities: St. Charles, Bowie
Status: Safe Democratic

Hoyer's district remains strongly Democratic although retaining Republican St. Mary's, Calvert and Anne Arundel Counties. The Democratic votes in Charles (which is getting even more Democratic due to migration from Prince Georges County,) and Prince Georges County more than counterbalance the Republican areas. The only changes in this district are the addition of Fairland in Montgomery County which leans Democratic and the switching around of some Prince Georges County precincts. Hoyer should be happy with his new district.

                                         West Maryland
Maryland's 6th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (D) Teal
Partisan Data: Obama 105,718 36%, McCain 183,765 62%
Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 40% McCain 58%
Major Cities: Hagerstown, Bel Air, Cumberland
Status: Safe Republican

This district contains the fast growing red Baltimore suburbs, the D.C suburbs that lean Republican and the older communities in the Appalachian Mountains. At a first glance, it appears that the lines do not change much. Actually, they do change a bit and these changes make the district more Republican by removing most of Frederick which leans Democratic. The district loses a bit of Carroll County to the 3rd district but picks up some conservative Harford County suburbs from the old 1st district. The location affects Bartlett who lives in Frederick (which is mostly in the 8th on this map) but since the new 6th district is so similar to the old one, he will probably run there and win easily (unless Republicans try to teabag him which is possible.)

Maryland's 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Partisan Data: Obama 193,995 70%, McCain 77,987 28%
Demographics: African American 50%, White 43%
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 79% McCain 20%
Major Cities: Baltimore, Glen Burnie, South Gate
Status: Safe Democratic

Although the 7th district still is anchored in Baltimore, it swings off in a different direction now. Instead of heading through west Balitmore County to west Howard County, the 7th district heads south into the conservative Anne Arundel County suburbs. It picks up Republican areas such as Glen Burnie which were formerly in the 1st district when it was very Republican. Although there are some precincts there that voted as high as 70% for McCain, precincts in Baltimore City that voted as high as 99% for Obama make this district heavily Democratic. The 50% African American population is a bit low for a VRA district but it should work because almost all of the Democratic primary voters are Democratic. Also, a 70% Obama district is way too high for any Republican to win, even in a good year.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District: Chris Van Hollen (D) light purple
Partisan Data: Obama 173,125 69%, McCain 74,721 30%
Demographics: 12% African American, 14% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 59% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 74% McCain 25%
Major Cities: Bethesda, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Rockville
Status: Safe Democratic

This district gets a bit more Republican. I removed Wheaton from the district as well as the heavily Democratic small part of Prince Georges County which helped Van Hollen beat Connie Morella (R) in 2002. Also, Van Hollen's district heads out into Republican leaning Frederick County but takes up the parts that lean Democratic such as the City of Frederick. These changes bring down the Obama percentage from 74% to 69%. Van Hollen will probably want a safer district but Montgomery County has grown much more Democratic since the 90's when it elected Morella. Frederick County is getting more Democratic too so Van Hollen should have no problems.

Do you have any ideas for redistrcting Maryland? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

New Mexico Redistricting

 I have not redistricted many states with only a few congressional districts yet but I am now doing New Mexico. This state is gaining no congressional districts and the congressional makeup is 2-1 Democratic which is different from the last census in 2000 when the districts were 2-1 Republican. In 2008, the shift in congressional seats occured when Martin Heinrich (D) picked up the 1st Congressional district centered around Albequerque which always votes about 1-2 points more Democratic than the rest of the state. Also, the Democrats picked up the 2nd Congressional district with Harry Teague (D) which is heavily Hispanic and in the southern part of the state. Republicans gained the 2nd Congressional district but did not erase all of the Democratic gains in New Mexico because the Democrats still have the 1st Congressional district. Unfortunately for the Democrats though, Susana Martinez (R) from Las Cruces in southern New Mexico is now the Governor so Democrats do not hold the trifecta. If Democrats held the trifecta (controlling both houses of the legislature and the Governorship,) they could try to weaken the 2nd district's Republican lean but since the Governor is Republican, the best Democrats can hope for is an incumbent protection plan. Although the lines have stayed pretty firm since the 1970's when New Mexico gained a congressional district, I am shifting it around a bit so the incumbents have safer districts. The 1st and 3rd districts get more Democratic while Steve Pearce (although I dislike him,) gets safer. Now here are the maps:

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NM (current map of New Mexico Congressional districts.)

North New Mexico

South New Mexico

Albequerque area
New Mexico's 1st Congressional District: Martin Heinrich (D) (blue)
Partisan Data: Obama 179,555 61%, McCain 112,968 38%
Demographics: 43% White, 6% Native American, 45% Hispanic
Major Cities: Albequerque
Old district's partisan data: Obama 60%-39%
Status: Likely Democratic

Although Heinrich won in 2010, a Republican wave year, he still needs to be protected because he won by only four points. Therefore, I made his district a bit more Democratic by removing all of heavily Republican Torrance and swingy Valencia County. I added heavily Democratic areas in northern Sandoval County while keeping all of Bernallio County (Albequerque) which leans Democratic in the district. Heinrich's district is only a bit more Democratic but he should be more safe since he loses all the swingy suburban territory.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Pearce (R) (Green)
Partisan Data: Obama 118,398 44%, McCain 146,587 55%
Demographics: 50% White, 43% Hispanic
Major Cities: Roswell, Clovis, Alamogordo
Old district's partisan data: McCain 50%-49%
Status: Safe Republican


As much as I hate Steve Pearce, I definitely see him getting a safer district for incumbent protection. This is the district that I altered the most. I removed the most Democratic parts of heavily Hispanic Dona Ana County and I also removed Democratic counties in the west such as Grant and Cibola. To compensate for the loss of those counties, I added suburban Torrance and Sandoval Counties near Albequerque to help Heinrich. I also added a string of Republican counties in the northeast such as Curry County (Clovis) and Union County which were formerly in the 3rd district. The Hispanic population here also drops too from 49% to 43%. His district keeps "Little Texas," the Republican southeast part of the state with Roswell and Lea County. As much as I want to see Pearce lose, this district keeps him completely safe.

3rd District: Ray Lujan (D) (Purple)
Partisan Data: Obama 173,992 66%, McCain 87,125 33%
Demographics: 33% White, 18% Native American, 47% Hispanic
Major Cities: Las Cruces, Santa Fe, Farmington
Old district's partisan data: Obama 61%-38%
Status: Safe Democratic

Lujan won with 57% in 2010 which is a good margin for an extremely bad election year for the Democrats. Still, I see him being stregthened in a bipartisan plan to protect Pearce. Lujan's district is currently centered in the north containing Santa Fe, Taos, the Democratic counties surrounding them, Republican Farmington and conservative counties on the eastern border. Although heavily Republican Farmington is still in the district, the district becomes more Democratic by losing the Republican counties on the eastern border and gaining a string of Democratic counties in the west all the way down to heavily Hispanic Las Cruces. These changes overall bring Obama's percentage up to 66%.

How Michael Bennett Won in Colorado

 In the 2010 midterm elections, Colorado was one of the main battleground states. Gov. Bill Ritter (D) chose Michael Bennett (D) to fill outgoing Senator Ken Salazar's (D) spot. Immediately, Republicans believed they had a pickup opportunity and polls showed Bennett in a close race. To add to Bennett's worries, he faced a challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) who had the support of the netroots and Bill Clinton. In August, while Democrats across the country were facing poor polling numbers, Bennett was improving his numbers as he won the primary and extremist Ken Buck (R) won the Republican nomination for Senate. Bennett ran ads on social issues, highlighting how Bennett opposes a woman's right to an abortion in almost all cases. Bennett hoped these ads would help him win moderate voters in Denver's suburbs, a crucial swing area. While Democrats lost two U.S House seats and the State House, Bennett won by 16,000 votes. Here is a statewide map of the results of the Senate race:

Here is a map of the 2008 Presidential election results:

Many pundits have defined Colorado as a base state where there are very liberal and conservative voters. Many elections revolve around who can excite their base the most and bring those voters to the polls. The Democratic base is Denver, Boulder and the ski resort counties that run in the Rocky Mountains through the center of the state. A line of unbroken blue from Colorado's southern border to its northern usually indicates a Democratic win because the Democratic candidate was able to bring enough of its base in the ski resorts to the polls and win over Hispanics in the southern counties such as Huefrano and Las Animas. The Republican base is Douglas County, El Paso County (Colorado Springs,) rural ranching counties in the east and mining counties in the west. Colorado is not just liberal and conservative voters though. Counties such as Adams, Jefferson, Araphoe and Larmier are filled with swing voters who lean Democratic on social issues but lean Republican on economic ones.


 What is interesting about the results is that while Obama won by 9 points and Bennett won by only 1, the county map is almost identical except for Chaffee County which Bennett won by less than one point but Obama lost by about the same margin. Why though did Obama do much better than Bennett while winning almost all the same counties? Did Bennett win by turning out Colorado's Democratic base or winning over moderate voters?
 
While the maps look nearly identical, the results tell a different story. Take a look at El Paso County for example, The Republicans' most populous base county and one of the most conservative. Buck won there by 28 points. McCain only won there by 19 points in an election where he had trouble turning out the base. For the Democrats, a base county to examine is ski resort county Gunnison County. In 2008, Obama turned out the Democratic base and won Gunnison County by 28 points. Bennett however won Gunnison County by 15 points. The overall shift from 2008 to 2010 was Democrats -8 points but in Gunnison County, the shift was -13 for Democrats. Did Gunnison have large number of swing voters or an enthusiasm gap? It was certainly an enthusiasm gap because the turnout levels in 2010 in Gunnison County were 46% of 2008's levels.The overall statewide turnout level in 2010 was 70% of 2008. Now we shall examine Jefferson County, a swing county in Denver's suburbs. It is one of the main bellwether counties in the state along with Larmier County. Bennett won there by 2 points while Obama won there by 9, showing a -7 shift for Democrats, below the statewide average. Jefferson is filled with the moderate suburban voters whom Bennett hoped to win.
 
Overall, the county results show that there was indeed an enthusiasm gap with Buck triumphing in heavily Republican areas and Bennett facing low turnout in some Democratic areas. Bennett was able to make up the difference though by relying on persuasion instead of turnout. Buck's teabagger persona excited his base but his extremism on abortion rights and gay issues caused the moderate voters to be averse to his extremism and vote for Bennett. In the Senate races, many of the close races the Republicans lost were races with extremists such as Nevada where Harry Reid (D) beat back a challenge from extremist Sharron Angle (R) who had extreme opinions such as eliminating social security and the Department of Education. Republicans had an opportunity to win more Senate seats but instead of pandering to moderate voters, they pandered to the base too strongly. To win elections, both Republican and Democratic candidates have to find a balance between a base candidate where they scare away moderates or a moderate candidate where they anger the base.

My Last Senate Rankings: Tossups Galore

Pundits always say that when election day is really close, some candidates start pulling away from the opponent. In West Virginia, we are seeing that. Joe Manchin (D) was in a close race with John Raese (R) but Manchin retrieved his lead when Raese made some gaffes such as looking for "hicky" people in an ad and then the controversy of his house in Florida (his wife is not even registered to vote in West Virginia.) Not all tossup races though have an incumbent pulling away in then end. In Pennsylvania, Toomey is leading by about 3 and his seems to have stopped Sestak's surge. Sources on the ground in Philadelphia though tell me that the GOTV operation there is in full swing for Sestak and if a larger than expected turnout occurs in Philadelphia, Sestak will be much closer and maybe win. Races though that have stayed as pure tossups include Illinois, Colorado, Washington and Nevada. In Illinois, Mark Kirk (R) seems to be gaining a few points but the Obama rally may have woken up the base enough to beat him. Colorado has an interesting race where Michael Bennett (D) is winning because he is pushing a woman's right to choose as a big issue and it seems to be working. Ken Buck (R) leads heavily among men while Bennett has a big lead with women. The race that should shock the pundits though is Nevada. All polls show a small Angle lead but what I see is a dead heat. The early voting in Nevada presents good results for the Democrats and people on the ground have mentioned how all the Democrats there are planning to vote.

There is one race though the Republicans must pick up to win the Senate. West Virginia and California both look stronger for the Democrats so if the Republicans want to win, they MUST win Washington State. Patti Murray (D) has put up a strong fight against Dino Rossi (R). Rossi has run statewide twice before and he lost both times. His 2004 run for Governor against Christine Greigoire (D) went into a recount. Washington is a high turnout state and some polls even suggest Republicans have less enthusiasm than Democrats. Also, cell phone only households are common in the heavily Democratic Seattle and many pollsters do not poll cellphone users. In Oregon's Gubernatorial race, it made a difference when John Kitzhaber (D) lead by 8 points with all phone users but 4 points with landlines only. Anyway, these Senate rankings here are my last ones before election day. Races such as California and West Virginia shift more towards the Democrats while Illinois shifts towards the Republicans (but it is still tossup in my book.) The Republicans are looking to pick up 7-9 seats because I do not see Rossi winning. Also, the names in parentheses are the names of the candidate from the incumbent party.  Bolded races mean the race may switch parties. Anyway, here are the rankings:

Safe D (6 seats)

Delaware (Chris Coons) Has O'Donnell ever had a shot here?

Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.

New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.

New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) A few polls showed a tight race in September but not anymore.
Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (1 seat)
Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but Blumenthal is leading in the polls.

Lean D (3 seats)
California (Barbara Boxer) Polls showed a tightening race but Boxer's strong campaigning keeps it Democratic.
Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?
West Virginia (Joe Manchin) After proving how out of touch he is with West Virginia, John Raese (R) is slipping in the polls.

Tossup (3 seats)

Colorado (Michael Bennett) PPP showed Ken Buck (R) up one point, showing how this race is a DEAD HEAT.

Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Polls show Kirk leading by 4 but Chicago has strong GOTV.
Nevada (Harry Reid) Polls show Angle with a small lead here but early voting looks good for Reid.

Lean Republican (5 seats)

Alaska (Joe Miller) The extremist Joe Miller (R) is slipping but write in Lisa Murkwski Murkowski (R) looks like she will win instead.


Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate but the Aqua Buddha ad sent him down.

New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.

Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) Democrats were hoping for a surprise pickup here but polls show Toomey with a 5 point lead. GOTV probably cannot narrow that gap.

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.

Likely Republican (8 seats)

Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas's next Senator.

Florida (Marco Rubio) Saying he will caucus with the Democrats if elected has not saved Charlie Crist (I) against Marco Rubio.
Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but family values are not a big issue this year.
Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama's unpopularity here is bringing her down.

North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.

Ohio (Rob Portman) At least Lee Fisher (D) knew he would not win so he gave $300,000 to Ohio Democrats.

Safe Republican: (8 seats)

Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.

Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.

Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.

Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.

North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.

South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.

South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Feel free to comment.

Races Democrats CAN Feel Optimistic About

 Go to any political website. Look in any politics section of the newspaper. Talk to any political analyst (including this one.) What do they tell you about the upcoming midterm election? They tell you that the Democrats will have a horrible night, they will lose the House, possibly lose 50 seats (that's the median for many projections now,) and almost lose the entire Senate. The Republicans also look to pick up numerous Gubernatorial races. Although I have seen people suggest that 2012 will be a good Democratic year, I am not looking too far ahead right now. Anyway, looking two years ahead in politics is like looking 200 years ahead into the future. Anyway, you probably see my diary title about Democrats having races to feel happy about. For the reasons I just listed about them losing the House and having a slim Senate majority, how can they be happy? Well, this post is about races where the Democrats can feel optimistic because although we ARE losing many seats, we are looking to pick up a few too. The Senate offers no pickup opportunities though except for Kentucky but most polls have shown Rand Paul (R) leading in the high single digits after Jack Conway's (D) ad criticizing Rand Paul's religion backfired. The Democrats are looking to pick up some Governorships and even a few House seats. I will start with the list of Governorships the Democrats have a strong chance at picking up, then I will go to the House seats:

California: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is retiring and former Governor Jerry Brown (D) is leading former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). Brown's campaigning in September and October was extremely skilled, making up for lost ground over the summer. He defeated Whitman in the debates. Then the housekeeper scandal surfaced and many voters viewed Whitman as mean while her strategy was to be friendly. Brown's closing arguments are even stronger, with an ad highlighting Whitman's similarities to Schwarzenegger and another ad saying how even Whitman admits Jerry Brown did well as Governor. A recent PPP poll showed Brown leading by nine points. That sounds right to me.

Connecticut: Jodi Rell (R) was one of the most popular Govenors in the nation but she is retiring. It is a Repulican year but Connecticut is still a Democratic state. Former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy (D) is leading against businessman Tom Foley (R). Malloy won a primary against rich Ned Lamont (D) who challenged Benedict Arnold Joe Lieberman (I) in the primary in 2006 but lost the Senate race to him. Foley is not a bad campaigner but most polls show Malloy with a 5-7 point lead.

Florida: Charlie Crist (I) left the Governorship and ran for Senate. Both races looked competitive at first but Republicans have the lead in the Senate race. They were not able to seal the deal for the Gubernatorial race though. State CFO Alex Sink (D) is locked in a battle with Rick Scott (R) who should be in jail for fraud in his former company's billing practices. Scott is outspending Sink and the Republican year are keeping this race very close but Scott's ethical problems prevent him from gaining a clear lead. Sink is also personally popular and she is popular in the Tallahassee area which has been trending Republican recently. The polling pattern is that the leader changes every week and the leader has a 3 point lead. Scott has a small lead of 2 points now. The question is will he hold the lead or will the Democrats pick up this Governorship?

Hawaii: Linda Lingle (R) proved that Republicans can be elected Governor in Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona (R) needs to prove two Republican Governors can be elected consecutively. Unfortunately for him, the polling suggests that will not happen. Hawaii's 1st District Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) is leading by eight points in most polls. It is a Republican year but Obama is still popular in Hawaii. He recently cut an ad for Abercrombie which seems to be working.

Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) is retiring and may be a Presidential candidate in 2012. I do not expect him to win the nomination but anyway, this post is about the Governor's race. Former Senator and owner of Dayton Stores, Mark Dayton (D) is running for Governor against Tom Emmer (R). The Midwest is looking mostly bad for the Democrats but not in Minnesota. A recent poll showed Dayton leading by ten points. An independent candidate is on the ballot too though and independents can get high shares of the vote in Minnesota (Jesse Ventura (I) was Governor in the late 90's.) The independent may take more votes from Dayton than Emmer but Dayton should still win.

Vermont: Jim Douglas (R) was able to win easily despite Vermont's blue trend but Douglas is now retiring. Democrats should be holding a big lead in this race but instead, it is a close race between State Senator Peter Shumlin (D) and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie (R). Dubie is a moderate and Vermont likes its moderate Republicans AND this is a Republican year. Vermont is still trending blue though and most polls show Shumlin leading by a few points. Therefore, Shumlin should win but it will be close.

Now onto the House:

AZ-03: John Shadegg (R) vacated his seat and now Ben Quayle (R) is running for it against John Hulburd (D). This seat leans Republican but Quayle ran into problems when he called Obama "the worst president in history," and ran an ad where he played with kids that were not his. The race leans toward Quayle at the moment but since he is a flawed candidate, Democrats have a shot here. Having Quayle lose would help make it a good election night for the Democrats.

CA-03: Democrats are not favored to win this race but they have a strong shot at it. Obama barely won this district in 2008 and Dan Lungren (R), the incumbent still won. Conventional wisdom says that any Republican incumbent who survived 2008 can win in 2010. This year, the Democrats have Ami Bera (D) who has consistently out raised Lungren and campaigned extremely hard. Although most polls show Lungren with a small lead, Bera could pull an upset.

DE-AL: Michael Castle (R) vacated his house seat to run for Senate (and he later lost to Christine O'Donnell.) With a popular Republican no longer holding the House seat, Democrats nominated a strong candidate in John Carney (D). All polls show Glen Urquhart (R) behind in low double digits so this will be an easy Democratic pickup.

IL-10: Even Kerry won this suburban district by 6 points so the Democrats keep trying to find someone to win here. It has been almost impossible for them to beat former incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Now that Kirk vacated his seat to run for Senate, Democrats have a great chance at winning. Dan Seals (D) is running against teabagger Bob Dold (R) and we know what suburban voters think of extremist teabaggers. Still, this is a Republican year so the race is close. I expect a Seals win here though.

LA-02: Joe Cao (R) won in a 75% Obama district where Obama is still popular against corrupt Bill Jefferson (D) who put illegal contributions in his freezer. Cao is in trouble now though because he is up against Cedric Richmond (D) who has no money in his freezer. Yes, this is a Republican year, yes Cao is moderate but this district is too Democratic to elect a Republican unless the Democrat is as corrupt as Jefferson.

WA-08: Dave Reichert (R) is in a district that leans Democratic. He won in 2006 and 2008 which were strong Democratic years. Therefore, it appeared that this year, he would win because it is a Republican year. Apparently, he believed that so he got caught napping as Suzan DelBane (D) got closer in the polls. Reichert lost the endorsement of some of the area's major newspapers which were crucial to his winning in 2006 and 2008. Reichert is campaigning now but this race is getting closer. It will be a better election night than expected if Democrats can win seats like this one.

Overall, the Democrats will get kicked on November 2nd but they still have pickup opportunities in the Governorships and even seven in the House. It is hard to ignore all the losses the Democrats will face but there will be bright spots!
Feel free to share your thoughts on these races.

The Big Tossups of the Cycle

 The 2010 election season as many pundits know is a year where almost every race is competitive for both Democrats and Republicans. The pundits like to say it is a Republican year with Democrats being the party in trouble? Am I disagreeing with that? No I am not and the Democrats will definitely get a big beating and have a poor chance of holding the House. They will probably hold the Senate but the question is will they lose 6 or 9 seats out of the 10 Republicans must win to control the Senate? Unlike 2000 where the political races came down to Florida and 2004 where they came down to Ohio, this election is more like 2008 where control of the Senate will not come down to one seat. The same is true for the control of the House and the majority of Governorships which Republicans will definitely gain. The object of this post though is to highlight those big tossup races to watch during election night for both the Senate and the Governorships. Although those races are crucial to deciding who controls the Senate, the Republicans will not gain the Senate even if they pick up all the tossups. If they can get races such as Washington and California into the tossup column though, they will have a shot at picking up the Senate though. Anyway, here are those important Senate and Gubernatorial tossups that will keep you up on election night:

Senate Pure Tossups (4 seats)

Colorado: At first, this race appeared to be in Ken Buck's (R) column. Buck is a teabagger who has extreme beliefs such as he is better than any opponent of his who wears high heels and that being gay is a choice. Does he really think people would choose to be gay when people keep denying them rights and bullying them in school? Anyway, Michael Bennett (D), the former Colorado Superintendent of Schools is getting closer in the polls with a Rasmussen poll showing Buck ahead by only 2 points. He is helped by a great ad "extremes" where he talks about Colorado's extreme mountains, extreme rivers and extremists. At the end, he says that some extremes are good but not Ken Buck. Also, the Democratic base in Colorado may be waking up too. Overall, it appears that the combination of the base coming home and moderate voters realizing how extreme Buck is are the factors tilting the race toward Bennett. How far will it tilt though?

Illinois: If any race is within one point or heads for a recount, it will be this one. Unlike Colorado, this race has not experienced a shift toward either party. This race has always been a tossup with two not so popular candidates. Mark Kirk (R) may be moderate AND he may be from the crucial suburban collar counties BUT he lied about his Vietnam war record and yesterday he lied about legislation he passed. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis (D) is running in a heavily Democratic state where Obama is still popular BUT his family's bank is running into problems, making him look poorly. In Illinois, Democrats need to turn out heavily Democratic Cook County with Chicago and some Democratic suburbs. Giannoulis is not inspiring so having Obama come and help him is exactly what he needs. This campaign is very nasty and closepin sellers will become rich when people buy closepins to hold their noses when they vote.

Nevada: This is yet another race full of noseholding. Harry Reid (D) as the Majority leader in the Senate is getting blamed for Nevada's poor economy even though he has passed numerous legislation helping Nevada including a bill that prevented massive teacher layoffs. At first, Reid was in trouble against rich Sue Lowden (R) but after she suggested you should trade healthcare benefits for hens and roosters, she lost the Republican primary. Sharron Angle (R) won the primary and she is equally (or worse) as strange as Lowden. Angle wants to eliminate social security, the right of people to drink liquor (I bet the casino unions and the casinos love her,) and she wants to eliminate the Department of Education. Of course, you may have heard about her recently saying that Hispanics look Asian. Harry Reid is taking advantage of Angle and running ads attacking her whenever he can. Reid is still in a dead heat with Angle even while Nevadans are familiar with her extreme views. Overall, I think Reid pulls it off by 2 points because of Nevada's strong Democratic Get Out The Vote (GOTV) operation and some Hispanics shifting to Reid after Angle's comment and an ad encouraging Hispanics not to vote.

Pennsylvania: If I had published this post on Tuesday, there is no way I would put this race on here. Most polls have showed fake moderate Pat Toomey (R) leading by 7 points...a few weeks ago. Former Admiral Joe Sestak (D) from the pivotal Philadelphia suburbs has been lying low. The polls have been narrowing ever so slowly but a new poll came out yesterday showing Sestak ahead. The poll is from PPP, a firm famous for getting the results of NJ Gov, MA Sen and the Maine anti gay rights initiative right on target (no pun intended, Target is in MN anyway.) Another poll came out today (not an internal for Sestak) from the Morning Call showing Sestak leading by three. This is similar to May when Sestak was trailing Arlen Specter (D) in the primary. Then Sestak came out of nowhere campaigning really hard. He won by eight points while pundits predicted a nailbiter. Sestak seems to be attempting a late surge again by slowly but surely running more ads until it explodes (which should be really soon.) Is Sestak ahead? Maybe he is ahead or maybe he is behind but it is certain this race is becoming closer. If the trend keeps up, more polls will show a close race and everyone else will view it as a Tossup.

Governor (2 races)

Florida: Although this race has been shifting, most of the time it has been close. State CFO Alex Sink (D) was always a shoo in for the Democratic nomination and I thought she would face Attorney General Bill McCollum (R). Rick Scott (R) leaped into the race though and playing on voter anger, won the Republican primary. Scott has money and is spending it while Sink does not have as much. She has been going negative against him which works until Scott starts spending again. Then he retakes the lead against her. Right now, Scott seems to be retrieving the lead again. He also shows how strong voter anger is right now because he is drawing support even though his company has been accused of fraud, the Government raided it and the company ended up paying 1.7 billion in settlements. Sink is highlighting Scott's past but will it work? Although the race always has about a 3 point lead for either candidate, this race will be very close. No, I am NOT looking at a 36 day hassle over yellow jacket...er butterfly ballots again but I am looking at a 2 point win by either candidate. It all depends on who can win the I-4 corridor with Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach.

Oregon: Democrats have recently been bragging about a pacific firewall which I am worried about now that Patti Murray (D) in Washington State is leading by 3 points and Barbara Boxer (D) in California is leading by only 5. Oregon though has always been a close race. In Oregon, John Kitzhaber (D), the former Governor of Oregon who won with 64% in 1998 wants his old job back. It looked like an easy win until May when polls showed basketball player Chris Dudley (R) (who is famous for breaking the record of missing 13 consecutive free throws) in a tight race. Dudley has raised twice as much money as Kitzhaber and not until Labor Day did Kitzhaber campaign actively. His hard work seems to be paying off though because a few polls have shown Kitzhaber is taking a small lead. Still, Dudley has the money and it is a Republican friendly year. Also, Oregon is the only state that votes entirely by mail and many voters have mailed in their ballots. In the last two weeks though, Kitzhaber has had the wind at his back and Oregon is trending Democratic so Kitzhaber will probably pull it out but barely.

Do you think these races are all tossups? Should I add more races? Who do you think will win these races anway? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

Senate Rankings: Who's Getting the Surge?

 Many pundits recently have been saying that there may be a Democratic surge. In the Gubernatorial races, there definitely is. In Ohio, Ted Strickland (D) was down by 8 points in most polls against John Kaisch (R) but most polls show Strickland down by about 2. In Illinois, Pat Quinn (D) was losing by 10 points to extremist conservative Bill Brady (R) who is anti abortion even in cases of rape. Quinn started airing ads highlighting Brady's extremist views in the Chicago suburbs, an area that shifted toward the Democrats in the 90's due to social issues. Now Quinn is down by only a few points. The shift is happening with seats in the Senate too.

 In New York, Kirstin Gillibrand (D) was appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. Joe DioGuardi (R) with money got the nomination over David Malpass (R). At first, polls showed a close race but Gillibrand now has a clear lead. By, the way, Kara DioGuardi is related to Joe, she is his daughter. In Connecticut, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) was expected to win easily against Linda McMahon (R) from WWE who is very rich. A week ago, polls showed the race tightened up with Blumenthal leading by only 6 points. Then a few new polls came out this week showing Blumenthal with a lead of about 12 points so this race is definitely heading back in his direction. This shift happened because he previously did not campaign strongly but he is now actively campaigning. In Washington, most polls show Patti Murray (D) with a lead over her challenger Dino Rossi (R). In California, the Democratic shift is also apparent. Barbara Boxer (D) is leading in most polls against the fired CEO of HP Carly Fiorina (R). Boxer is leading because she pulled a Karl Rove and used Fiorina's strength as a CEO as her weakness. Overall, most of the races where the Democrats are improving are races where the Democrats started campaigning.

Republicans also have their own surge in some races too. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold (D) was expected to win reelection easily. Then Ron Johnson (R), another rich Republican won the primary and started spending his money. Feingold was never popular with the Democratic base because he often votes against pieces of Democratic legislation that are not liberal enough. In West Virginia, pundits expected Governor Joe Manchin (D) to easily hold the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat. Although Manchin is very popular, John Raese (R) has said that Manchin will be a rubber stamp for Obama and this strategy has caused Raese to obtain a small lead in the polls. Also, some polls are suggesting that Sharron Angle (R) who wants to eliminate social security, the Department of Education and the Department of Energy is surging too. I need to see a few more polls to confirm this though.

Overall, the Democratic surge seems to be in Democratic states while the Republican surge is in Republican and swing states. This suggests that the Democratic base is waking up now and they are entering the likely voter pool. An excited Democratic base will not save every seat of course but it will prevent Republicans from winning in Democratic states where Democrats outnumber Republicans. My current prediction for Senate pickups is a 7-9 seat gain for the Republicans. By the way, bolded races show races that might switch parties. Now off to the rankings:

Safe D (5 seats)

Delaware (Chris Coons) O' Donnell keeps getting crazier and less popular. A poll showed her down by 19 points.


Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.

New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.

Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (2 seats)
Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but Blumenthal is leading in the polls.

New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) I strongly considered putting this seat in Solid D.
Lean D (2 seats)

California (Barbara Boxer) Fiorina is too conservative for California.

Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?

Tossup (4 seats)

Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Can moderate Mark Kirk (R) beat Illinois's Democratic lean?

Nevada (Harry Reid) Wow Nevada, are you really considering electing social security and Department of Education hater Sharron Angle?

Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) I know this race should be Lean R but polls show Sestak is getting closer now that he is running more ads.

West Virginia (Joe Manchin) John Raese (R) is running a strong race against Manchin but Manchin should pull it off if he campaigns hard.


Lean Republican (4 seats)

Colorado (Michael Bennett) Ken Buck (R) may be a big teabagger but he is leading.

Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate against extremist Rand Paul but Kentucky is too conservative.

New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.



Likely Republican (9 seats)

Alaska (Joe Miller) Either Lisa Murkowski (R) will win with her write in or the extremist Miller will prevail.

Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas's next Senator.

Florida (Marco Rubio) With Charlie Crist (I) bleeding support to Meek (D), Rubio takes the lead.

Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but apparently, most Louisiana voters do not really care about family values.

Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama's unpopularity here is bringing her down.

North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.

Ohio (Rob Portman) Lee Fisher (D) needs to go back to campaign school. Enough said.



Safe Republican: (8 seats)

Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.

Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.

Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.

Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.

North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.

South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.

South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.


Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Feel free to comment.