Arizona Redistricting 5-4 Republican

Some states such as California have districts that almost never switch parties. In 2006-2010 though, Arizona's House seats kept switching parties with 6 party switches throughout those years. Before 2006, Arizona had a 6-2 Republican map and after the 2008 elections, it was 5-3 Democratic. After 2010 though, the Republican tide hit here and the delegation shifted to 5-3 Republican. Arizona's 7th and 8th Congressional District in 2010 also were close to switching parties although Raul Griljava (D) and Gabrielle Giffords (D) held their respective seats. Why was Arizona filled with competitive districts? They had an independent commission that drew the maps. Although Republicans hold the trifecta by holding the State Legislature and the Governorship, they have no power over redistricting because the commission draws the lines. I drew this map predicting what the commission will draw. Although a few of the districts such as the 5th and the 1st are competitive, I assume that this map will be a 5-4 Republican map. This is fair for Arizona because 5-4 Republican is similar to the partisan makeup of Arizona which leans Republican in most elections. I also strengthened many of the incumbents in this map such as Raul Griljava (D) and Gabrielle Giffords (D). My map has 1 Safe Democratic, 2 Likely Democratic, 1 Lean Democratic, 2 Lean Republican, and 3 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here are the maps:

Here is a link to Arizona's current map: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer-cd.html?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd112_az.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452
Also, click the maps if you want the full image

North Arizona

South Arizona
Arizona's 1st Congressional District Paul Gosar (R) Blue
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 55%
Demographics: 19.2% Native American, 17.1% Hispanic, 59.5% White
Demographics 18+: 16.7% Native American, 14.6% Hispanic, 64.7% White
Old Demographics: 22.4% Native American, 16.4% Hispanic, 58.4% White
Communities: Flagstaff, Prescott, Sierra Vista
Status: Lean Republican

The 1st district does not undergo major changes as it loses Florence and Coolridge in Pinal County. The 1st district picks up all of Cochise County from the 8th district. Cochise County voted 59% for McCain and has large numbers of military members. It also helps make the district more Republican. The 1st district also loses part of Republican Gila County.  Although these changes probably make Gosar's district a point more Republican, he can still face a tough race. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), the former representative of the 1st district may run. She was one of the few Democrats in a district McCain won to vote against both the Stupak Amendment and the Affordable Care Act. She lost by 6 points which is not a nail biter but narrower than expected. A possibility though is that a Native American candidate may challenge her in the primary. Kirkpatrick's relationships with the Native American may be weak because she defeated Native American Mary Titla (D) in the 2008 congressional primary. Also, she previously represented a Native American majority state legislative district although she was white so some Native American leaders may believe it is their turn to have representation in Congress. A possible candidate is openly gay Navajo State Senator Jack Jackson (D) who almost ran for the 1st congressional district in 2006. On the other hand, Kirkpatrick has support with the Navajo Community because she received endorsements in 2010 from many Navajo leaders including Dr. Peterson Zeh, the Navajo Nation President in 2010 and Navajos are the most populous Native American tribe in the 1st congressional district.

Arizona's 2nd Congressional District Trent Franks (R) Green
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 62%
Demographics: 17.6% Hispanic, 72.6% White
Demographics 18+: 14.1% Hispanic, 77.3% White
Old Demographics: 14.2% Hispanic, 78.4% White
Communities: Lake Havasu City, Surprise, Peoria
Status: Safe Republican

The 2nd district undergoes a few changes. It gains conservative La Paz County from the 7th district and keeps the string to the Hopi Reservation intact. The lines there may look convoluted but the Hopi do not want to be represented in the same district as the Navajo so the 2nd district represents them. The 2nd district also retains western Maricopa County which is one of the fastest growing areas in the state. Surprise had 39,000 people in 2000 but has 117,000 today. Most of these newcomers are Republicans and the 2nd becomes more Republican as it loses some Hispanic precincts in Glendale. Franks should have no problems winning reelection in this conservative district.

Phoenix Area

Arizona's 3rd Congressional District Ben Quayle (R) Purple
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 55%
Demographics: 19.2% Hispanic, 70.4% White
Demographics 18+: 15.8% Hispanic, 74.6% White
Old Demographics: 14.1% Hispanic, 78.5% White
Communities: Phoenix, Glendale, Paradise
Status: Lean Republican

The 3rd district becomes a point more Democratic as it loses Republican areas in northern Maricopa County such as Cave Creek and Carefree. The 3rd district gains a few Hispanic precincts in Glendale but retains its center in northern Phoenix. Although Quayle won by 11 points in 2010, it was a Republican year and his district is growing more Democratic. Also, Quayle is very conservative and ran an ad saying "Obama was the worst president ever" so his far right views could hurt him against a moderate Democrat in a Democratic year. Jon Hulburd (D) who challenged Quayle last year could run again in 2012 when Obama will probably contest Arizona.

Arizona's 4th Congressional District Ed Pastor (D) Red
Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 65%
Demographics: 8.1% African American, 59.8% Hispanic, 26.0% White
Demographics 18+: 8.3% African American, 53.2% Hispanic, 32.2% White
Old Demographics: 7.5% African American, 58.0% Hispanic, 29.3% White
Communities: Phoenix
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district's lines stay extremely similar to the current ones but there are a couple of changes. The 4th district picks up a few Hispanic precincts from the 3rd district near the intersection of Northern Ave. and Route 17. The 4th also gives a few heavily Hispanic precincts on the eastern Phoenix border to the 5th district in order to make the 5th district more winnable for a Democrat. Besides these minor changes, the 4th district's lines stay extremely similar to their current form. The district remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

Arizona's 5th Congressional District Dave Schweikert (R) Yellow
Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 52%
Demographics: 5.1% African American, 4.5% Asian, 30.2% Hispanic, 55.2% White
Demographics 18+: 4.9% African American, 4.7% Asian, 25.2% Hispanic, 61.2% White
Old Demographics: 2.7% African American, 3.3% Asian, 13.3% Hispanic, 76.8% White
Communities : Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa
Status: Lean Democratic

This district undergoes major changes and becomes more Democratic as it loses conservative northern Scottsdale. To compensate for losing northern Scottsdale, the 5th district gains Hispanic neighborhoods in Mesa, Chandler and Phoenix. The less Hispanic parts of Mesa and Chandler are in the conservative 6th district. These changes bring the district's Hispanic population up to 29% and the 18+ population to 24%. With the addition of the Hispanic areas, the district becomes more Democratic so Democrats have a stronger shot at winning here. Harry Mitchell (D), the district's representative in 2010 will be 72 at the time of the 2012 election but he may run. If he does not, possible candidates include his son Mark Mitchell (D), the Vice Mayor of Tempe. Arizona Senate Minority Leader Dave Schapira (D) also from Tempe could run here too.

Arizona's 6th Congressional District Jeff Flake (R) Teal
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 64%
Demographics: 14.7% Hispanic, 75.1% White
Demographics 18+: 12.1% Hispanic, 78.8% White
Old Demographics: 17.2% Hispanic, 76.6% White
Communities: Apache Junction, Gilbert, Mesa
Status: Safe Republican

The area around Mesa and Apache Junction is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation so the 6th district had to shed population. It grew more Republican as well because it lost western Chandler and western Mesa, both swing areas with a growing Hispanic population. The 6th district also gained the Gila River Indian Reservation which is Democratic but should not alter the political leanings of the 6th district much. Although this district is too conservative to elect a Democrat, the Republicans could face a bruising primary if Jeff Flake (R) retires to run for Senate. The Republican bench is large here and potential candidates include State Senator Thayer Veschoor (R), State Senator Chuck Grey (R), Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (R) or Superintendent of Public Instruction John Huppenthal (R). If Huppenthal ran, he would probably win the primary due to his power as the former Senate Majority Leader but he may want to remain the Superintendent of Public Instruction. Anyway, unless a powerful candidate such as Huppenthal ran who can clear the field, the 6th district will face a large primary.

Tucson Area

Arizona's 7th Congressional District Raul Griljava (D) Gray
Obama (estimated) 59%
Demographics: 58.0% Hispanic, 4.0% African American, 31.7% White
Demographics 18+: 52.6% Hispanic, 4.0% African American, 37.5% White
Old Demographics: 2.8% African American, 50.6% Hispanic, 38.6% White
Communities: Phoenix, Yuma, Tucson
Status: Likely Democratic

Griljava won by 6 points in a closer than expected race against teabagger Ruth McClung (R) despite his district's high Hispanic population. I made some changes to his district in order to strengthen him. Also, his district's current Hispanic 18+ population is below 50% so making Griljava's district more Hispanic helps boost the Hispanic 18+ population above 50%. It is important to keep the Hispanic 18+ population above 50% because the VRA requires that some districts be not only minority majority but have an 18+ population above 50% too.

Arizona’s 8th Congressional District Gabrielle Giffords (D) slate blue
Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 50%
Demographics: 29.2% Hispanic, 60.8% White
Demographics 18+: 24.7% Hispanic, 65.9% White
Old Demographics: 18.2% Hispanic, 73.9% White
Communities: Tucson, Oro Valley, Catalina
Status: Likely Democratic if Giffords runs, lean Democratic if not

First, I wish Giffords a full recovery from the Tucson shooting last January. If she recovers fully but decides not to return to politics, it is possible her husband Mark Kelly (D), one of the astronauts on the Endeavor will run in her place. Spouses of representatives often replace the representative when the representative is unable to run. Lois Capps (D) in Santa Barbara, Ca replaced Walter Capps (D), Mary Bono (R) replaced Sonny Bono (R) in Riverside County, Ca. Spouses are not always successful though as Stephanie Moore (D) learned when she unsuccessfully ran for her husband's seat in Kansas. Anyway, if Giffords wants to return to politics, she can run for her House seat or Jon Kyls' (R) open U.S Senate seat. Even if she does not run for the 8th district, the Democrat here will have a more favorable district. Giffords won last year by 4,000 votes and I removed all of Cochise County which she lost by 4,000 votes. I also removed all her district's territory in Pinal County which she lost by 1,200 votes. If the election were held under her district's current lines excluding Cochise and Pinal Counties, Giffords would win by 9,200 votes. Her district becomes even safer and more Tucson centered as it gains part of heavily Hispanic South Tucson from the 7th district and loses conservative areas near Picture Rocks. Although this is not a safely Democratic district, Tucson's increased clout here will make it easier for Giffords or her replacement to win.

Arizona's 9th Congressional District Vacant Cyan
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 58%
Demographics: 21.0% Hispanic, 69.1% White
Demographics 18+: 17.9% Hispanic, 72.9% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Communities: Scottsdale, Casa Grande, Marana
Status: Safe Republican

The lines on this map remove Republican areas from the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th district and I combined those areas in the new 9th district. Those areas include northern Scottsdale in Maricopa County, all of Pinal County except for the Gila River reservation and Apache Junction, part of Gila County and Marana in Pima County. This district is too conservative for a Democrat to win but there could be a competitive Republican primary. Possible candidates could be State Senator Steve Smith (R) from Pinal County or State Senator Michelle Reagan (R) from Scottsdale.

Nevada Bipartisan Redistricting

Nevada is gaining a new congressional district and representatives Dean Heller (R) and Shelley Berkley (D) may run for Senate. Therefore, three out of Nevada's four districts will be open seats. The only seat with an incumbent running is the 3rd district with Joe Heck (R) who was elected in 2010 by one point. The power will shift to the Las Vegas area too because 72% of Nevada's population lives in Clark County, up from 68% in 2000. The legislature does not have to consider incumbency while redistricting but the map should have strong Democratic and Republican districts. The reason is that there is split control with Democrats controlling the legislature and Brian Sandoval (R) controlling the Governorship. The new map should be designed for a 2-2 delegation. Republicans may not be inclined to give the Democrats a seat but Heck won by only one point last year so the Republicans should exchange a safe district for Heck with a new Democratic district. Nevada is trending Democratic though so one or both of the 2 Republican districts may flip at the end of the decade but I doubt Sandoval would sign a bill with a 3-1 Democratic delegation. The Democrats may not attempt a 3-1 map either because it may endanger their incumbents. Anyway, here are the maps:

Las Vegas area

Here is a link to maps of Nevada's current congressional districts: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer-cd.html?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd112_nv.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

A few notes: Dave's Redistricting App does not have partisan data so the partisan data for the 1st, 3rd and 4th districts are predicted. The 2nd district has partisan data because I did not split any counties while drawing it and used county by county percentages to calculate the votes there. Also, the demographic figures reflect the results of the 2010 census.


Nevada's 1st Congressional District Shelley Berkeley (D) Blue
President 2008 (predicted): Obama 61%
Demographics: 12.7% Asian, 26.7% Hispanic, 9.1% African American, 47.3% White
Demographics 18+: 13.2% Asian, 23.0% Hispanic, 8.8% African American, 51.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This district contains the western part of the Las Vegas area, picking up Spring Valley, Paradise and Democratic parts of western Las Vegas. This is Shelley Berkeley’s (D) district but if she runs for Senate, there will be a primary battle for the 1^st district. Dina Titus (D) lost the current 3rd district to Joe Heck (R) last year by 1 point despite the final polls showing Heck with high single digit leads. She may run in this district which is too Democratic for a Republican representative. The primary will be the important race here. Titus’s advantages include serving as Nevada's Senate Minority Leader from 1993 to 2009. She also represented the swing 3rd district from 2009 to 2011. Barbara Buckley (D) may run because her Spring Valley base is completely within in the 1st district. She has served in the State Assembly since 1994. She was also the former Speaker of the Assembly but may be too liberal for some voters. She planned to run for Governor in 2010 but Rory Reid (D) ran instead. He may run here too in hopes of a comeback. His advantages include being the former head of the Clark County Commission and being Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D) son.

Statewide map
Nevada's 2nd Congressional District Dean Heller (R) Green
President 2008: Obama 143,152 51%, McCain 139,941 49%
Senate 2010: Reid 102,040 47%, Angle 115,518 53%
Demographics: 20.4% Hispanic, 69.3% White
Demographics 18+: 16.5% Hispanic, 73.7% White
Status: Likely Republican

Although Obama won this district, I expect a Republican to win here because the district normally votes Republican. The 2nd district became a couple of points more Democratic by losing the heavily Republican and rural counties in south Nevada. Washoe County which voted for Obama and Reid gained more influence. Washoe County is not a Democrat county though because it votes close to the statewide average for both candidates. As for the district's representative, Dean Heller (R) is running for Senate so he will vacate the district. Obama will increase turnout in 2012 because he will target Nevada. Also, Reno is next to California and in 2008, many Californians raced into Reno to help Obama. I assume the volunteers will race into Reno again in 2012. I still believe that this district is too Republican to elect a Democrat now because of the conservative Cow Counties but if Nevada's Democratic trend continues, Democrats will be competitive later in the decade. As for the 2012 congressional race, State GOP Party Chair Mark Amodei (R) has announced his candidacy. On the Democratic side, State Senator Sheila Leslie (D) from Reno may examine the race. Also, Reno City Council member Jessica Sferraza (D) may consider running. She is young but has served in Reno's city council for ten years. She also has the Reno base and helped revitalize parts of Reno including Wells Ave.

Nevada's 3rd Congressional District OPEN Purple
President 2008 (predicted): Obama 70%
Demographics: 6.3% Asian, 44.7% Hispanic, 14.4% African American, 31.1% White
Demographics 18+: 7.2% Asian, 39.1% Hispanic, 14.4% African American, 36.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

This is the new minority majority district in Nevada. It contains North Las Vegas, Sunrise Manor, eastern Las Vegas and some Democratic parts of Republican leaning Henderson. This district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative but a competitive Democratic primary is possible. John Oceguera (D), the Speaker of the State Assembly may run here because his eastern Las Vegas base is in the 3rd district and he will do well with the district's large Hispanic population in the primary. Oceguera has served since 2000 and his work as Speaker makes him well known with voters in his district and nearby areas. He is a young face too at 43 years old. Oceguera may face competition from Steven Horsford (D) the Nevada Senate Majority Leader. Horsford's Senate district is completely in the new 3rd congressional district and represents part of North Las Vegas. Like Oceguera, Horsford is a young rising star elected in 2004 and Horsford's work as Senate Majority Leader has made voters familiar with him. In a primary, Horsford will probably win the endorsement of the powerful culinary union with 60,000 members because he is the CEO of the Culinary Training Academy and helped construct kitchen training facilities on the Nevada Partners Campus. Horsford is African American and the 3rd district's 14.4% African American population is the largest of Nevada's districts. With Oceguera though, 39% of the voting age population is Hispanic and although Hispanics usually have lower turnout rates than African Americans, the Hispanic population is probably high enough for more Hispanics than African Americans vote in the Democratic primary. Overall, Oceguera has advantages because he served longer than Horsford did, Oceguera is the Speaker of the State Assembly and Oceguera is Hispanic. Horsford's advantages though are that he should gain the culinary union's backing, his Senate district contains more of the 3rd district than Oceguera's and Horsford is the Senate Majority Leader.

Nevada's 4th Congressional District Joe Heck (R) red
President 2008 (predicted): McCain 52%
Demographics: 7.5% Asian, 14.2% Hispanic, 5.6% African American, 68.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.7% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic, 5.5% African American, 71.9% White
Status: Likely Republican

Brian Sandoval (R) will not sign a bill that weakens Joe Heck (R) who barely won against Dina Titus (D) in the current 3rd district so I strengthened Heck. I removed Democratic leaning Spring Valley, East Las Vegas and Democratic leaning parts of Henderson. I added Republican parts of North Las Vegas and some extremely red rural counties such as Lincoln, Nye and White Pine counties. Heck's Clark County base is large enough to avoid a primary challenge from the rural areas though. The district's Republican lean may change as Democrats from Las Vegas move out into the suburbs. In 2012 though, Heck should have no difficulties winning reelection.

Virginia Bipartisan Redistricting

Both parties have a voice in Virginia's redistricting process this year however, so expect either a quick compromise or a long battle that ends in a court drawn map. The Republicans control the Governorship and the State House but the Democrats control the State Senate. The parties may draw a bipartisan where incumbents of both parties are strengthened or have Democrats draw the State Senate, have Republicans draw the state House and have a bipartisan map for the U.S House. This is the system the legislature did in New York in 2002. I hope the map I drew here will be favorable to both parties. The Republicans hold an 8-3 majority of Virginia's House seats, 3 of them were won in 2010. The Republicans will want to protect their freshman Robert Hurt (R) and Scott Rigell (R) who won in swing districts as well as Frank Wolf (R) whose district is trending Democratic. Trying to protect them all will be difficult because the Republicans will not want to create a dummymander and the Democratic State Senate has to agree to their plan. Therefore, I drew a 7-4 Republican map that the Republicans will like because it strengthens their incumbents but the Democrats will like too because it creates a new Democratic district. I also ensured that the 3rd district's African American population exceeded 50%. As for the districts on the map, there are 3 Safe Democratic, 1 Likely Democratic, 1 Lean Republican, 2 Likely Republican and 4 Safe Republican.

Here is a link with a map of Virginia's current congressional districts (after clicking the link, scroll down to the bottom of the page:) http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/congress.html

A few notes: The "Average 2000-2009" refers to the average performance of Democrats and Republicans in that district from 2000 to 2009. Change does not refer to the average performance; change refers to how well Obama performed in the new district compared to the old one. "Old Demographics" refers to the demographics of the old district in 2000.

Virginia's 1st Congressional District Rob Whitman (R) Blue
President 2008: Obama 47%, McCain 53%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 45%, Republicans 55%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 6.1% Hispanic, 19.7% African American, 68.8% White
Old Demographics: 18.4% African American, 74.7% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district becomes more Republican as it loses parts of Newport News and Hampton in the south and losing Democratic Prince William County in the north. To keep population equal with other districts, the 1st district gains Republican leaning rural counties such as New Kent. The 1st district also picks up the Delmarva Peninsula which leans Democratic but the removal of most of Newport News makes this district more Republican.

Hampton Roads

Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Scott Rigell (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Green
President 2008: Obama 49%, McCain 51%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 47%, McCain 53%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 5.0% Asian, 5.9% Hispanic, 21.3% African American, 64.2% White
Old Demographics: 21.4% African American, 67.0% White
Status: Lean Republican

I could not do much to strengthen Rigell because I had to keep the 3rd district majority African American so it could not pick up many precincts that voted for Obama and had a low African American population. Anyway, I strengthened Rigell a bit by removing Hampton and most of Norfolk. I also added Republican parts of Chesapeake where Rep. Randy Forbes (R) of the 4th district lives. If he chooses to run in the 2nd, he will have the seniority advantage but more of Rigell's current district is in the 2nd. Also, Forbes is popular because although Obama won his district, Forbes has won easily in the past few elections.

Virginia's 3rd Congressional District Bobby Scott (D) Dark Magenta
President 2008: Obama 70%, McCain 30%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 66%, McCain 34%
Change: McCain +12
Demographics: 51.3% African American, 39.0% White
Old Demographics: 56.0% African American, 37.7% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Scott's district gets more Republican as it loses all of Richmond and picks up less Democratic precincts from the 1st in Newport News. I kept the district majority African American by picking up African American areas in Suffolk, Petersburg, and Sussex County. Although Scott's district becomes more Republican, it is still extremely safe for him and majority African American. He should have no problems winning reelection.

Richmond Area

Virginia's 4th Congressional District Robert Hurt (R) vs. Randy Forbes (R) ? Red
President 2008: Obama 42%, McCain 58%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 41%, Republicans 59%
Change: McCain +17
Demographics: 23.3% African American, 71.1% White
Old Demographics: 33.1% African American, 62.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

Forbes may run here because this district contains some of his current territory in Chesterfield County and some southeastern rural counties. Hurt will run too because his home Chatham is in this district. If Forbes ran, As for Hurt's district, I strengthened it because the Republicans will try to protect him from a tough race. I removed heavily Democratic Charlottesville from Charlottesville while adding parts of the current 4th district such as Republican Amelia County near Richmond. Hurt should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Virginia's 5th Congressional District Vacant Eric Cantor (R) ? Yellow
President 2008: Obama 43%, McCain 57%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 40%, McCain 60%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 10.8% African American, 79.9% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Status: Safe Republican

Cantor's 7th district is now Democratic so I expect him to run here, although his home is in the 7th district. The 5th district contains much of his current territory by including some conservative rural counties near Richmond such as Goochland, Hanover County in the Richmond exurbs, Spotsylvania County in the D.C exurbs and the string of rural counties in Central Virginia in Cantor's current district. The 5th district also picks up some far D.C exurbs though because it represents Winchester and western Loudon County. Cantor used to represent a 53% McCain district that was trending Democratic but his district is now 55% McCain and the rural areas are not trending Democratic. Cantor should be safe here.

Virginia's 6th Congressional District Bob Goodlatte (R) Teal
President 2008: Obama 47%, McCain 53%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 46%, Republicans 54%
Change: Obama + 9
Demographics: 9.1% African American, 82.2% White
Old Demographics: 10.9% African American, 84.8% White
Status: Safe Republican

Goodlatte's district becomes more Democratic as it loses heavily Republican Amherst County and picks up Charlottesville. The Republicans will probably want Charlottesville in Goodlatte's district because it provided Tom Perrellio with his winning margin and more in 2008 and Goodlatte has enough Republicans in his district to offset Democratic votes in Charlottesville. Goodlatte should be safe here.

Virginia's 7th Congressional District Vacant Gray
President 2008: Obama 63%, McCain 37%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 58%, Republicans 42%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 6.7% Hispanic, 34.5% African American, 52.0% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Status: Safe Democratic

Republicans may decide to sacrifice one district in order to protect Robert Hurt and Eric Cantor. The 7th district also helps Scott Rigell (R) in the 2nd district because by losing Richmond, the 3rd district has to pick up African American areas currently in the 2nd district so the 3rd can remain majority African American. Anyway, the 7th district is a combination of the current 3rd, 4th and 7th districts. The 7th contains all of Richmond, all of Henrico County, Chesterfield County's close in suburbs and Hopewell. In the current map, the Richmond area is split between three districts but the Richmond area now has its own district so Richmond area legislators should like this district. Possible candidates for this seat could be State Senator Donald McEachin (D) who represents part of Henrico County or Henry Marsh (D) who represents some heavily African American parts of the district.

Virginia's 8th Congressional District Jim Moran (D) Slate Blue
President 2008: Obama 66%, McCain 34%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 65%, Republicans 35%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 12.5% Asian, 16.5% Hispanic, 9.9% African American, 57.9% White
Old Demographics: 9.5% Asian, 16.4% Hispanic, 13.4% African American, 57.1% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Moran's district does not undergo major changes as Moran retains his base in Arlington and Alexandria. His district becomes a few points more Republican in order to protect Gerry Connelly (D) of the 11th district. Moran loses the close in suburbs near Alexandria such as Fort Washington to the 11th District. To compensate for the loss of the close in suburbs near Alexandria, the 8th district gains Democratic parts of McLean, Oakton, Herndon and Tysons Corner. Although Moran's district is not as Democratic as its current form, Moran should have no problems winning reelection in the general or the primary.

Virginia's 9th Congressional District Morgan Griffith (R) Periwinkle
President 2008: Obama 39%, McCain 61%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 42%, Republicans 58%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 3.7% African American, 92.1% White
Old Demographics: 3.8% African American, 93.3% White
Status: Likely Republican

Griffith's district does not undergo major changes as he loses Alleghany County which usually votes Democratic at a local level. The 9th district had slow population growth so the 9th gained Franklin and Bedford Counties which are both strongly Republican. It is possible Rick Boucher (D) who previously held this district will run again but it will be more difficult for him because of the new Republican counties in the district. Anyway, it was difficult to strength Griffith without creating convoluted lines or making the 6th district Democratic enough for a competitive race.

Virginia's 10th Congressional District Frank Wolf (R) Deep Pink
President 2008: Obama 51%, McCain 49%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 48%, Republicans 52%
Change: McCain +5
Demographics: 17.9% Asian, 11.0% Hispanic, 6.9% African American, 60.7% White
Old Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 7.1% Hispanic, 6.7% African American, 77.2% White
Status: Likely Republican

Northern Virginia is trending Democratic so drawing Wolf a district that will be safe Republican in the long term is impossible but I drew a district that should protect him for the next few years. I removed the western part of the district around Winchester which leans Republican but I also removed the Democratic parts of Herndon, McLean and Manassas. Although the 10th district is growing quickly, it had to gain a few more areas so it gained some moderate areas near Fairfax City and some conservative parts of Prince William County. Wolf is popular so he should hold this seat. If he retires though, this seat could be competitive.

Virginia's 11th Congressional District Gerry Connelly (D) chartreuse
President 2008: Obama 61%, McCain 39%
Average 2000-2009: Democrats 55%, Republicans 45%
Change: Obama +7
Demographics: 10.6% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 17.4% African American, 46.9% White
Old Demographics: 10.9% Asian, 9.1% Hispanic, 10.1% African American, 66.8% White
Status: Likely Democratic

Connelly faced a tough race last year from Keith Fimian (R) in 2010 which is a high water mark for Republicans. If Connelly could survive in 2010, he can survive any year barring a major scandal. Anyway, I strengthened Connelly so he would not have another tough race. I removed the moderate areas near Fairfax City, Fimian's home Oakton, and conservative parts of Prince William County. I added Democratic areas near Alexandria and Democratic Manassas. These changes should protect Connelly.

How Harry Reid Won

 Yes, I have seen many articles describing how Harry Reid won because his ground game and campaign were superior to Sharron Angle's (R) but I will actually look at the map here and see exactly what demographics carried Reid to victory. First, I will start at the beginning: the economic downturn affected people across the United States and Nevada was no exception. Unemployment here was at 14% so many Nevadans blamed the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid for the high unemployment rate. Reid appeared to be in danger and polls showed him losing to Sue Lowden (R) who was the frontrunner in the Republican primaries. Then after saying people should trade healthcare for chickens, she lost and Sharron Angle (R) won the primary. Immediately, Harry Reid introduced Angle's extreme beliefs to the public such as how she wants Social Security Eliminated, she suggested people should use "2nd Amendment remedies" against the Government while saying rape victims should not be allowed to choose whether to have an abortion. Angle tried to keep herself quiet by staying away from reporters not from Fox News. Angle's campaign had a poor ground game compared to Reid's which was extremely organized. Due to all these factors, Reid beat the Republican wind and won by 41,000 votes. Here is a map of the 2010 election results:

Here is a map of the 2008 election results

Here is a map representing the shift from 2008 to 2010:

light blue is Democratic 0%-5%
light red is Republican 0%-5%
Red is Republican 6%-10%
Dark Red is Republican 11%+

 Nevada is an interesting state in terms of the bases. The Democratic base is Clark County which contains Las Vegas. Clark County usually does not vote overwhelmingly Democratic but since it has so many people, Democrats can win Nevada by winning Clark County with a 10% or higher margin. The Republican base is the cow counties which are the rural counties outside of Clark. These counties generally have small populations but cast large Republican margins to offset Clark County. The big bellwether in Nevada is Washoe County (Reno.) It usually votes with the statewide average and represents the state as a whole. It has an urban area with casinos that leans Democratic and some conservative rural areas. While looking at the 2008 and 2010 map, it appears that Reid performed better than Obama because there is more blue on that map. When looking at the map showing the shifts though, it reveals that Obama performed better because the shifts toward Reid where in counties with smaller populations.

As the map shows, Obama performed much better than Reid but the shift toward Angle was not uniform across the state. The shift toward Angle was most apparent in the Reno area in counties such as Douglas County.  McCain won it 56%-41% but it shifted ten points toward Angle who won it by 59%-34%. The reason for the shift here is that Angle is from the Reno area so her presence here probably gave her a few points. It was not enough to give her Washoe County (Reno) which she lost by 5 points. In Clark County, the shift was -6 for the Democrats, one point below the -7 shift statewide. It is not surprising the Republican shift in Clark County was not as strong as the rest of the state because as many news articles have mentioned, Reid turned out the Democratic base in order to win.

Surprisingly, some of the conservative "Cow Counties" which vote more Republican than the rest of the state shifted toward Reid. An example is Humboldt County on the Oregon border near Elko County. It voted 63%-33% for McCain, giving him a 30 point win. Angle though won it 57%-32% by 25 points, 5 points less than McCain while she overperfomed him by 7 points statewide. Humboldt County does not have a strong Democratic base so that would not explain the shift toward Reid. One possible explanation is that a Harry Reid endorsement by Elko County's main newspaper caused a few voters to shift to Reid and since the newspaper had a strong presence in the area. Although the endorsement probably did not influence many voters, it seemed to influence enough voters to cause Reid to perform better than Obama did. This example suggests that Reid won by not only turning out the base voters but swaying independents as well due to the inroads he made in a few conservative counties.

Overall, the real reason for Reid winning was not that he turned out the base voters but he succeeded in winning over independents too. His campaign was so strong that he even overperformed in areas with conservative leaning independents when one may expect Angle to dominate among those voters due to the independents countrywide swinging to the Republicans. Angle had enough presence in her home area to overperform there but Reid's overperformance in the northern part of the state demonstrates how Reid's support among the large groups in Nevada was so strong that it helped him even there.

Colorado Redistricting

 By winning one race by only 157 votes, Republicans control one house of the Colorado State Legislature so Democrats do not hold the trifecta in Colorado anymore. So instead of a possible Democratic gerrymander where they could retake the 3rd and 4th districts, the Democrats will probably end up with a bipartisan incumbent protection which is more favorable to the Republicans. The new Republicans may feel vulnerable because many of the new ones are in marginal districts they won in a very Republican year so the Democrats might work out a deal at protecting those Republicans in exchange for controlling congressional redistricting. That is not very likely though and I drew this map assuming it is a bipartisan deal. Ed Perlmutter (D) of Colorado's 7th district is strengthened as well as newly elected Scott Tipton (R) of Colorado's 3rd district and Cory Gardner (R) of Colorado's 4th Congressional district. In 2002, Colorado was 5-2 Republican and in 2008, it shifted to 5-2 Democratic. The Republicans have the majority in the delegation now though with 4-3. Although Republicans came back a bit in 2010, I still think Colorado is trending Democratic due to Democrats moving into the Denver area from California. This movement could make districts such as the 6th competitive in the future, but for now, all incumbents will be much safer. Now, here are the maps:

link for current maps: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer.htm?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd110_co.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

Denver area
Colorado's 1st Congressional District: Diana DeGette (D) Blue
Obama won 70% (estimate)
Demographics: 8% African American, 37% Hispanic, 49% White
Old Demographics: 10% African American, 33% Hispanic, 52% White
Major Cities: Denver, Barr Lake
Status: Safe Democratic

DeGette's district actually becomes a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic suburbs around Englewood and replaced them with more moderate suburbs such as Brighton and Barr Lake. DeGette may not like having the new territory (and she even loses some Denver neighborhoods) but since the district is still mostly in Denver, she should have no problems at all facing reelection. Her district is now the only minority majority district in Colorado.

Colorado 2 Jared Polis (D) Green
Obama won 66% (estimate)
Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 80% White
Old Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 76% White
Major Cities: Boulder, Broomfield, Aspen
Status: Safe Democratic

Polis was already safe but his district becomes a Democratic vote sink to shore up the 3rd district now held by Scott Tipton (R). If Democrats had the trifecta here, they could have unpacked this district to make the 3rd district Democratic enough for John Salazar (D) to retake but as it is, the 2nd will take Democratic areas out of the 3rd. The 2nd loses all of Adams and Larmier Counties. The 2nd is more of a Rocky Mountain district now by picking up Democratic ski resort counties such as Routt (Steamboat Springs,) Pitkin (Aspen,) and Gunnison (Crested Butte.)

North Colorado

South Colorado


Colorado 3 Scott Tipton (R) Purple
McCain won 52% (estimate)
Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 73% White
Old Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 73% White
Major Cities: Pueblo, Grand Junction
Status: Likely Republican

Under a bipartisan plan, Tipton will be strengthened but due to the current demographics, strengthening Tipton is difficult without making convoluted lines or putting the 4th district Republican in jeopardy. I strengthened Tipton by removing Pitkin County (Aspen) as well as some other ski areas that I put in the 2nd. I added conservative Park County and a few conservative rural counties in southeastern Colorado. Obama also over performed the district's usual Democratic percentage here due to high turnout in the ski areas but the district may become competitive again if Hispanics keep trending Democratic. This would be an opening for Salazar who is Hispanic and could do win enough Hispanics to beat Tipton. Salazar has an uphill battle though with the ski areas in the 2nd district though.

Colorado 4 Cory Gardner (R) Red
McCain won 52% (estimate)
Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 78% White
Old Demographics: 19% Hispanic, 76% White
Major Cities: Fort Collins, Greeley, Lamar
Status: Lean Republican

Due to population purposes, strengthening this district was difficult but I still made Gardner safer. I removed some Democratic areas in Adams and Boulder Counties. The district needs to shed territory anyway due to population growth but I added Elbert County as well as the conservative rural parts of Adams and Arapahoe Counties. Betsy Markey (D) who held this district from 2008 to 2010 might be able to win in a Democratic year here but the district's changes will make winning harder for her.

Colorado 5 Doug Lamborn (R) Yellow
McCain won 59% (estimate)
Demographics: 5% African American, 13% Hispanic, 76% White
Old Demographics: 5% African, 13% Hispanic, 75% White
Major Cities: Colorado Springs, Castle Rock
Status: Safe Republican

At a first glance, this district appears to undergo major changes but population wise, it does not. It just loses some rural counties to the west to make the 3rd district more Republican while picking up a large portion of Douglas County. Lamborn was already safe with strongly Republican Colorado Springs in his district but he is just as safe now, if not safer.

Colorado 6 Mike Coffman (R) Teal
McCain won 52% (estimate)
Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 82% White
Old Demographics: 8% Hispanic, 84% White
Major Cities: Parker, Centennial
Status: Likely Republican

Coffman's district says pretty similar demographically but his district becomes more difficult to hold. He picks up a large portion of Lakewood which formally was in the Democratic leaning 7th district while losing part of heavily Republican Douglas County. Although Coffman may be safe now, Jefferson and Araphaoe Counties are becoming more Democratic and now that they have more people in the district, Coffman may be in trouble in the end of the decade. That should however give him enough time to become entrenched in his district so he can fend away any challenge. The Republicans probably want Coffman to have more territory but that will be hard because the 3rd and 4th districts need their Republican areas.

Colorado 7 Ed Perlmutter (D) Orange
Obama won 62% (estimate)
Demographics: 7% African American, 27% Hispanic, 60% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 26% Hispanic, 61% White
Major Cities: Aurora, Lakewood, Arvada
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Obama won 59% under the current lines, the district was originally drawn as a swing district so Perlmutter will probably have a safer district on his wish list. This is what the new map does by adding in a few Denver neighborhoods. It also picks up more of Democratic Aurora while losing the less Democratic parts of Lakewood. Perlmutter also gains more of Adams County by picking up more of Westminister although he loses the rural eastern part to the 4th district. Perlmutter should be much safer, although he seemed to be doing fine already.

Maryland Redistricting, 7-1 D

 Like in 2001, Democrats hold the trifecta in Maryland again. This means that not only do they control the Governorship, they also control both houses of the state legislature. In 2001, the congressional delegation was 4-4 but Democrats redrew the maps to make a favorable Democratic map that accomplished its goal of removing 2 of the 4 Republican representatives. After 2002, there were no party changes until 2008 when Frank Kratovli (D) ran in the 1st district which contains conservative Baltimore suburbs and the Eastern Shore. He barely won against an extremist candidate. Unfortunately for the Democrats, he lost in 2010 by 13 points. Therefore, the delegation has returned to its original 6-2 Democrats. Maryland has turned more blue though since 2002 due to more African Americans moving into Prince Georges and Charles Counties. Also, Hispanics, Asians and white liberals are moving into Montgomery County and even Frederick County. The Baltimore suburbs are actually trending Republican but that's a different post for a different day.

Still, with Maryland trending Democratic overall, it is now possible to construct a 7-1 Democratic map. I have even seen some 8-0 Democratic maps but some districts are too shaky and can result in a dummymander when Republicans are able to pick up 1,2 or even 3 of those seats. I chose to draw a 7-1 map because I think it is close to what the state legislature will draw. While drawing the map, I made sure the 4th and 7th districts remained majority African American because of the VRA requiring 2 African American majority districts. While drawing the map, I made sure no district except for the Republican 6th fell below 54% Obama. Also, I made sure 6 of the districts were at least 58% for Obama. This map should protect all the Democratic incumbents, one Republican incumbent and create a new district that leans Democratic. Now here are some helpful links:

Maryland's current map: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer.htm?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd110_md.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

                                     Statewide map of Maryland
Maryland's 1st Congressional District: Andy Harris (R) (blue)
Partisan Data: Obama 137,680 54%, McCain 113,225 44%
Demographics: 23% African American, 5% Hispanic, 68% White
Old District's Partisan Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%
Major Cities: Annapolis, Salisbury
Status: Likely Democratic

 This district makes some major changes when I moved conservative suburbs in Harford and Anne Arundel out into other districts such as the 6th and 7th while adding in Democratic Annapolis and some neighborhoods in heavily Democratic Prince Georges County and places in Anne Arundel County such as Odenton which will become more Democratic due to in migration by African Americans. Harris's base is in conservative Harford County which I removed. Frank Kratovli (D), the representative before 2010 of the 1st now has a great shot at retaking this district because of the new Democratic areas in the district. The district's Democratic lean may be overstated due to high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County but as the areas in Anne Arundel keep getting more Democratic, they should offset any drop in turnout. Also, Kratovli tends to over perform in the Eastern Shore so with big margins in Prince Georges and Anne Arundel Counties, he should win here.

                                        Baltimore Area

Maryland's 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) (Green)
Partisan Data: Obama 155,376 58%, McCain 107,691 40%
Demographics: 24% African American, 68% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Major Cities: Baltimore, Towson, Dundalk
Status: Safe Democratic

Ruppersberger's district gets less convoluted by losing all of its Anne Arundel County portions and picking up swingy Towson which was originally in the 3rd district. Although the 2nd district retains some Republican suburbs around Edgemere, it still remains Democratic by picking up more Baltimore City neighborhoods. They also help balance out the loss of some heavily Democratic precincts in Randallstown. Ruppersberger should be fine here.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) (Purple)
Partisan Data: Obama 164,297 62%, McCain 96,626 36%
Demographics: 26% African American, 8% Asian, 60% White
Old district's partisan data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Major Cities: Randallstown, Columbia, Catonsville
Status: Safe Democratic

I am aware of the fact John Sarbanes does not live in this district but it still contains Democratic Columbia. The district undergoes some major changes though. It retains parts of Baltimore County but loses nearly all of Baltimore City and all of Anne Arundel County. It even picks up some Republican areas in southern Carroll County. Sarbanes is still safe though because his district picks up some heavily African American areas in west Baltimore County, bringing the African American population in the district from 16% to 26%. I am not sure the state legislature will support this district though because in their mind, it may need more of Sarbanes's old district and they may not want to extend this into Montgomery County. Still, this is a safe district for Sarbanes.

                                        Washington Suburbs
Maryland's 4th Congressional District: Donna Edwards (D) (Red)
Partisan Data: Obama 212,819 88%, McCain 27,795 11%
Demographics: 54% African American, 17% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 21% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 85%, McCain 14%
Major Cities: Fort Washington, Chillum, Silver Spring
Status: Safe Democratic

The district remains VRA protected and gets even more Democratic although Edwards was more than safe here already. The district becomes smaller and loses more moderate areas in northern Montgomery County while picking up part of Wheaton in Montgomery County. I would have extended this district out into more swingy areas in Montgomery County but the 3rd district took them for population reasons. I am not sure if the legislature will send Edwards's district to pick up some Republican areas to help protect other incumbents or make a district similar to mine.

Maryland 5th Congressional District: Steny Hoyer (D) (yellow)
Partisan Data: Obama 176,048 66%, McCain 89,006 33%
Demographics: 36% African American, 5% Hispanic, 53% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 66% McCain 33%
Major Cities: St. Charles, Bowie
Status: Safe Democratic

Hoyer's district remains strongly Democratic although retaining Republican St. Mary's, Calvert and Anne Arundel Counties. The Democratic votes in Charles (which is getting even more Democratic due to migration from Prince Georges County,) and Prince Georges County more than counterbalance the Republican areas. The only changes in this district are the addition of Fairland in Montgomery County which leans Democratic and the switching around of some Prince Georges County precincts. Hoyer should be happy with his new district.

                                         West Maryland
Maryland's 6th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (D) Teal
Partisan Data: Obama 105,718 36%, McCain 183,765 62%
Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 40% McCain 58%
Major Cities: Hagerstown, Bel Air, Cumberland
Status: Safe Republican

This district contains the fast growing red Baltimore suburbs, the D.C suburbs that lean Republican and the older communities in the Appalachian Mountains. At a first glance, it appears that the lines do not change much. Actually, they do change a bit and these changes make the district more Republican by removing most of Frederick which leans Democratic. The district loses a bit of Carroll County to the 3rd district but picks up some conservative Harford County suburbs from the old 1st district. The location affects Bartlett who lives in Frederick (which is mostly in the 8th on this map) but since the new 6th district is so similar to the old one, he will probably run there and win easily (unless Republicans try to teabag him which is possible.)

Maryland's 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Partisan Data: Obama 193,995 70%, McCain 77,987 28%
Demographics: African American 50%, White 43%
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 79% McCain 20%
Major Cities: Baltimore, Glen Burnie, South Gate
Status: Safe Democratic

Although the 7th district still is anchored in Baltimore, it swings off in a different direction now. Instead of heading through west Balitmore County to west Howard County, the 7th district heads south into the conservative Anne Arundel County suburbs. It picks up Republican areas such as Glen Burnie which were formerly in the 1st district when it was very Republican. Although there are some precincts there that voted as high as 70% for McCain, precincts in Baltimore City that voted as high as 99% for Obama make this district heavily Democratic. The 50% African American population is a bit low for a VRA district but it should work because almost all of the Democratic primary voters are Democratic. Also, a 70% Obama district is way too high for any Republican to win, even in a good year.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District: Chris Van Hollen (D) light purple
Partisan Data: Obama 173,125 69%, McCain 74,721 30%
Demographics: 12% African American, 14% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 59% White
Old District's Partisan Data: Obama 74% McCain 25%
Major Cities: Bethesda, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Rockville
Status: Safe Democratic

This district gets a bit more Republican. I removed Wheaton from the district as well as the heavily Democratic small part of Prince Georges County which helped Van Hollen beat Connie Morella (R) in 2002. Also, Van Hollen's district heads out into Republican leaning Frederick County but takes up the parts that lean Democratic such as the City of Frederick. These changes bring down the Obama percentage from 74% to 69%. Van Hollen will probably want a safer district but Montgomery County has grown much more Democratic since the 90's when it elected Morella. Frederick County is getting more Democratic too so Van Hollen should have no problems.

Do you have any ideas for redistrcting Maryland? Please feel free to share your thoughts.

New Mexico Redistricting

 I have not redistricted many states with only a few congressional districts yet but I am now doing New Mexico. This state is gaining no congressional districts and the congressional makeup is 2-1 Democratic which is different from the last census in 2000 when the districts were 2-1 Republican. In 2008, the shift in congressional seats occured when Martin Heinrich (D) picked up the 1st Congressional district centered around Albequerque which always votes about 1-2 points more Democratic than the rest of the state. Also, the Democrats picked up the 2nd Congressional district with Harry Teague (D) which is heavily Hispanic and in the southern part of the state. Republicans gained the 2nd Congressional district but did not erase all of the Democratic gains in New Mexico because the Democrats still have the 1st Congressional district. Unfortunately for the Democrats though, Susana Martinez (R) from Las Cruces in southern New Mexico is now the Governor so Democrats do not hold the trifecta. If Democrats held the trifecta (controlling both houses of the legislature and the Governorship,) they could try to weaken the 2nd district's Republican lean but since the Governor is Republican, the best Democrats can hope for is an incumbent protection plan. Although the lines have stayed pretty firm since the 1970's when New Mexico gained a congressional district, I am shifting it around a bit so the incumbents have safer districts. The 1st and 3rd districts get more Democratic while Steve Pearce (although I dislike him,) gets safer. Now here are the maps:

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NM (current map of New Mexico Congressional districts.)

North New Mexico

South New Mexico

Albequerque area
New Mexico's 1st Congressional District: Martin Heinrich (D) (blue)
Partisan Data: Obama 179,555 61%, McCain 112,968 38%
Demographics: 43% White, 6% Native American, 45% Hispanic
Major Cities: Albequerque
Old district's partisan data: Obama 60%-39%
Status: Likely Democratic

Although Heinrich won in 2010, a Republican wave year, he still needs to be protected because he won by only four points. Therefore, I made his district a bit more Democratic by removing all of heavily Republican Torrance and swingy Valencia County. I added heavily Democratic areas in northern Sandoval County while keeping all of Bernallio County (Albequerque) which leans Democratic in the district. Heinrich's district is only a bit more Democratic but he should be more safe since he loses all the swingy suburban territory.

New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Pearce (R) (Green)
Partisan Data: Obama 118,398 44%, McCain 146,587 55%
Demographics: 50% White, 43% Hispanic
Major Cities: Roswell, Clovis, Alamogordo
Old district's partisan data: McCain 50%-49%
Status: Safe Republican


As much as I hate Steve Pearce, I definitely see him getting a safer district for incumbent protection. This is the district that I altered the most. I removed the most Democratic parts of heavily Hispanic Dona Ana County and I also removed Democratic counties in the west such as Grant and Cibola. To compensate for the loss of those counties, I added suburban Torrance and Sandoval Counties near Albequerque to help Heinrich. I also added a string of Republican counties in the northeast such as Curry County (Clovis) and Union County which were formerly in the 3rd district. The Hispanic population here also drops too from 49% to 43%. His district keeps "Little Texas," the Republican southeast part of the state with Roswell and Lea County. As much as I want to see Pearce lose, this district keeps him completely safe.

3rd District: Ray Lujan (D) (Purple)
Partisan Data: Obama 173,992 66%, McCain 87,125 33%
Demographics: 33% White, 18% Native American, 47% Hispanic
Major Cities: Las Cruces, Santa Fe, Farmington
Old district's partisan data: Obama 61%-38%
Status: Safe Democratic

Lujan won with 57% in 2010 which is a good margin for an extremely bad election year for the Democrats. Still, I see him being stregthened in a bipartisan plan to protect Pearce. Lujan's district is currently centered in the north containing Santa Fe, Taos, the Democratic counties surrounding them, Republican Farmington and conservative counties on the eastern border. Although heavily Republican Farmington is still in the district, the district becomes more Democratic by losing the Republican counties on the eastern border and gaining a string of Democratic counties in the west all the way down to heavily Hispanic Las Cruces. These changes overall bring Obama's percentage up to 66%.

How Michael Bennett Won in Colorado

 In the 2010 midterm elections, Colorado was one of the main battleground states. Gov. Bill Ritter (D) chose Michael Bennett (D) to fill outgoing Senator Ken Salazar's (D) spot. Immediately, Republicans believed they had a pickup opportunity and polls showed Bennett in a close race. To add to Bennett's worries, he faced a challenge from Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) who had the support of the netroots and Bill Clinton. In August, while Democrats across the country were facing poor polling numbers, Bennett was improving his numbers as he won the primary and extremist Ken Buck (R) won the Republican nomination for Senate. Bennett ran ads on social issues, highlighting how Bennett opposes a woman's right to an abortion in almost all cases. Bennett hoped these ads would help him win moderate voters in Denver's suburbs, a crucial swing area. While Democrats lost two U.S House seats and the State House, Bennett won by 16,000 votes. Here is a statewide map of the results of the Senate race:

Here is a map of the 2008 Presidential election results:

Many pundits have defined Colorado as a base state where there are very liberal and conservative voters. Many elections revolve around who can excite their base the most and bring those voters to the polls. The Democratic base is Denver, Boulder and the ski resort counties that run in the Rocky Mountains through the center of the state. A line of unbroken blue from Colorado's southern border to its northern usually indicates a Democratic win because the Democratic candidate was able to bring enough of its base in the ski resorts to the polls and win over Hispanics in the southern counties such as Huefrano and Las Animas. The Republican base is Douglas County, El Paso County (Colorado Springs,) rural ranching counties in the east and mining counties in the west. Colorado is not just liberal and conservative voters though. Counties such as Adams, Jefferson, Araphoe and Larmier are filled with swing voters who lean Democratic on social issues but lean Republican on economic ones.


 What is interesting about the results is that while Obama won by 9 points and Bennett won by only 1, the county map is almost identical except for Chaffee County which Bennett won by less than one point but Obama lost by about the same margin. Why though did Obama do much better than Bennett while winning almost all the same counties? Did Bennett win by turning out Colorado's Democratic base or winning over moderate voters?
 
While the maps look nearly identical, the results tell a different story. Take a look at El Paso County for example, The Republicans' most populous base county and one of the most conservative. Buck won there by 28 points. McCain only won there by 19 points in an election where he had trouble turning out the base. For the Democrats, a base county to examine is ski resort county Gunnison County. In 2008, Obama turned out the Democratic base and won Gunnison County by 28 points. Bennett however won Gunnison County by 15 points. The overall shift from 2008 to 2010 was Democrats -8 points but in Gunnison County, the shift was -13 for Democrats. Did Gunnison have large number of swing voters or an enthusiasm gap? It was certainly an enthusiasm gap because the turnout levels in 2010 in Gunnison County were 46% of 2008's levels.The overall statewide turnout level in 2010 was 70% of 2008. Now we shall examine Jefferson County, a swing county in Denver's suburbs. It is one of the main bellwether counties in the state along with Larmier County. Bennett won there by 2 points while Obama won there by 9, showing a -7 shift for Democrats, below the statewide average. Jefferson is filled with the moderate suburban voters whom Bennett hoped to win.
 
Overall, the county results show that there was indeed an enthusiasm gap with Buck triumphing in heavily Republican areas and Bennett facing low turnout in some Democratic areas. Bennett was able to make up the difference though by relying on persuasion instead of turnout. Buck's teabagger persona excited his base but his extremism on abortion rights and gay issues caused the moderate voters to be averse to his extremism and vote for Bennett. In the Senate races, many of the close races the Republicans lost were races with extremists such as Nevada where Harry Reid (D) beat back a challenge from extremist Sharron Angle (R) who had extreme opinions such as eliminating social security and the Department of Education. Republicans had an opportunity to win more Senate seats but instead of pandering to moderate voters, they pandered to the base too strongly. To win elections, both Republican and Democratic candidates have to find a balance between a base candidate where they scare away moderates or a moderate candidate where they anger the base.

My Last Senate Rankings: Tossups Galore

Pundits always say that when election day is really close, some candidates start pulling away from the opponent. In West Virginia, we are seeing that. Joe Manchin (D) was in a close race with John Raese (R) but Manchin retrieved his lead when Raese made some gaffes such as looking for "hicky" people in an ad and then the controversy of his house in Florida (his wife is not even registered to vote in West Virginia.) Not all tossup races though have an incumbent pulling away in then end. In Pennsylvania, Toomey is leading by about 3 and his seems to have stopped Sestak's surge. Sources on the ground in Philadelphia though tell me that the GOTV operation there is in full swing for Sestak and if a larger than expected turnout occurs in Philadelphia, Sestak will be much closer and maybe win. Races though that have stayed as pure tossups include Illinois, Colorado, Washington and Nevada. In Illinois, Mark Kirk (R) seems to be gaining a few points but the Obama rally may have woken up the base enough to beat him. Colorado has an interesting race where Michael Bennett (D) is winning because he is pushing a woman's right to choose as a big issue and it seems to be working. Ken Buck (R) leads heavily among men while Bennett has a big lead with women. The race that should shock the pundits though is Nevada. All polls show a small Angle lead but what I see is a dead heat. The early voting in Nevada presents good results for the Democrats and people on the ground have mentioned how all the Democrats there are planning to vote.

There is one race though the Republicans must pick up to win the Senate. West Virginia and California both look stronger for the Democrats so if the Republicans want to win, they MUST win Washington State. Patti Murray (D) has put up a strong fight against Dino Rossi (R). Rossi has run statewide twice before and he lost both times. His 2004 run for Governor against Christine Greigoire (D) went into a recount. Washington is a high turnout state and some polls even suggest Republicans have less enthusiasm than Democrats. Also, cell phone only households are common in the heavily Democratic Seattle and many pollsters do not poll cellphone users. In Oregon's Gubernatorial race, it made a difference when John Kitzhaber (D) lead by 8 points with all phone users but 4 points with landlines only. Anyway, these Senate rankings here are my last ones before election day. Races such as California and West Virginia shift more towards the Democrats while Illinois shifts towards the Republicans (but it is still tossup in my book.) The Republicans are looking to pick up 7-9 seats because I do not see Rossi winning. Also, the names in parentheses are the names of the candidate from the incumbent party.  Bolded races mean the race may switch parties. Anyway, here are the rankings:

Safe D (6 seats)

Delaware (Chris Coons) Has O'Donnell ever had a shot here?

Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.

New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.

New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) A few polls showed a tight race in September but not anymore.
Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (1 seat)
Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but Blumenthal is leading in the polls.

Lean D (3 seats)
California (Barbara Boxer) Polls showed a tightening race but Boxer's strong campaigning keeps it Democratic.
Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?
West Virginia (Joe Manchin) After proving how out of touch he is with West Virginia, John Raese (R) is slipping in the polls.

Tossup (3 seats)

Colorado (Michael Bennett) PPP showed Ken Buck (R) up one point, showing how this race is a DEAD HEAT.

Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Polls show Kirk leading by 4 but Chicago has strong GOTV.
Nevada (Harry Reid) Polls show Angle with a small lead here but early voting looks good for Reid.

Lean Republican (5 seats)

Alaska (Joe Miller) The extremist Joe Miller (R) is slipping but write in Lisa Murkwski Murkowski (R) looks like she will win instead.


Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate but the Aqua Buddha ad sent him down.

New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.

Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) Democrats were hoping for a surprise pickup here but polls show Toomey with a 5 point lead. GOTV probably cannot narrow that gap.

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.

Likely Republican (8 seats)

Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas's next Senator.

Florida (Marco Rubio) Saying he will caucus with the Democrats if elected has not saved Charlie Crist (I) against Marco Rubio.
Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but family values are not a big issue this year.
Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama's unpopularity here is bringing her down.

North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.

Ohio (Rob Portman) At least Lee Fisher (D) knew he would not win so he gave $300,000 to Ohio Democrats.

Safe Republican: (8 seats)

Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.

Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.

Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.

Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.

North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.

South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.

South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Feel free to comment.