Analysis of California's Proposed Congressional Maps: Part II

This is the 2nd post out of three posts analyzing California's new congressional redistricting maps.This post covers districts 18-35. The 1st post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/analysis-of-californias-proposed.html

For district maps, click here: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-redistricting-map,0,6145644.htmlstory
For demographics and partisan data, click here: http://redistrictingpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/CRC-First-Draft-Political-Data.pdf


California's 18th District Vacant (Dennis Cardoza (D) ? vs. Jeff Denham (R)?) Tracy/Manteca/Stanislaus County
Brown 44%, Whitman 49%
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Demographics 4% African American, 6% Asian, 40% Hispanic
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

The 18th district used to contain Democratic neighborhoods in Stanislaus County but gains all of Stanislaus County now, including the Republican towns of Oakdale. The 18th district also loses Stockton and all territory south of Stanislaus County. In San Joaquin County, the 18th district represents Democratic leaning Tracy and marginal Manteca. Despite Obama's win, Stanislaus County leans Republican but is trending Democratic due to its growing Hispanic population. The combination of these areas creates a slightly Republican leaning district but Cardoza has a strong shot here because he is a strong incumbent and the district is trending Democratic. If a strong Republican candidate such as Denham runs here though, Cardoza will have a very difficult race. Denham is a very strong candidate who formerly held a State Senate district that voted 59% for Obama before becoming the 19th district's representative.

California's 19th District Dennis Cardoza (D) vs. Jeff Denham (R)? vs. Jim Costa (D)? Merced/Madera/Fresno
Brown 50%, Whitman 42%
Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 58% Hispanic
Status: Likely Democratic

This district does not share much territory with the current 19th district which the commission divided between the new 18th, 21st and 4th districts. Although Denham represented the old 19th district, he lived in Atwater which the old 18th district represented. Due to the 58% Obama number in this district, Denham will probably not run here and run in the 18th instead. Cardoza may run here if Denham runs in the 18th so Cardoza does not face an uphill battle. Cardoza's current district and this one share Merced and Madera Counties. Cardoza may face a primary challenge from Rep. Jim Costa (D) who lives in Fresno and lives in the new 19th district. In 2010, Costa barely won reelection in the 20th district which contained Republican areas such as Kings County. He may want a safer district that does not contain Kings County. To avoid a primary challenge from Cardoza though, Costa may run in the 71% Hispanic 20th district. Although the district represents Hispanic areas, splitting Fresno may not be the best idea for communities of interest. Still, respecting the Voting Rights Act which mandates that districts designed to elect minority candidates should be drawn is more important than respecting communities of interest. Drawing a district containing all of Fresno and its suburbs would most likely not have enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic candidate but this district that contains Merced County and Hispanic parts of Fresno does.

California's 20th District Vacant (Jim Costa (D)?) western Fresno County/Kings County/Bakersfield
Brown 48%, Whitman 44%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Demographics: 5% African American, 4% Asian, 71% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic

The new 20th district loses its population base in Fresno and gains some Hispanic parts of Tulare County as well as more territory in Kern County. Although the district's population is 71% Hispanic, Jerry Brown only won the district by four points. The reason is that the Hispanics in this district tend to have lower turnout rates and vote less Democratic than Hispanics in nearby districts such as the new 19th. As for the 20th district's representative, Costa may run here if he wants to avoid a primary challenge from Cardoza but Costa's close win in 2010 may deter him from running in a district that contains heavily Republican Kings County. If Costa chooses to run in the 19th, possible candidates include former State Senator Dean Florez (D) and State Senator Michael Rubio (D) from Bakersfield. On the Republican side, State Assembly member David Valadao (R) may consider running. He is a strong candidate because he is Hispanic in this heavily Hispanic district and currently represents a heavily Hispanic assembly district.

California's 21st District Devin Nunes (R) Clovis/Visalia
Brown 35%, Whitman 59%
Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 45% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican

The 21st district loses Porterville and its territory in the Sierras but besides these changes, the lines remain similar. Nunes still represents a strongly Republican district combining Republican parts of Fresno and Tulare Counties. This district also represents communities of interest by combining small cities and suburbs such as Clovis that have a mix of Hispanics and conservative white voters.

California's 22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Bakersfield/Porterville/Lancaster
Brown 33%, Whitman 58%
Obama 35%, McCain 62%
Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican

The 22nd district undergoes a few changes. It loses all of heavily Republican inland San Luis Obispo County and gains parts of Tulare County such as the Sierras and Porterville. Besides these changes, the 22nd district remains safe for McCarthy and heavily Republican.

California's 23rd District Lois Capps (D) San Luis Obispo County/Santa Barbara County
Brown 47%, Whitman 46%
Obama 57%, McCain 42%
Demographics: 4% Asian, 35% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic

The 23rd district undergoes some major changes as its lines become similar to its lines during the 1990s. The 23rd district loses all of heavily Democratic Oxnard and gains inland San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, both strongly Republican areas. Before the commission changed the lines, the 23rd district protected Capps from Republican challenges by representing a thin line along the coast that contained Democratic areas such as UCSB, CAL Poly and Oxnard. A 10 mile wide strip along the coast was not compact so the new 23rd district combines communities of interest. As for Capps, her district was extremely competitive during the 1990s but the 23rd district is trending Democratic with its universities and growing Hispanic populations. Also, she is more entrenched now but she may face a challenge from former Lieutenant Governor and State Senator from San Luis Obispo County Abel Maldonado (R). Although Obama won solidly here, Brown barely won because the university areas had much lower turnout than they did in 2008. As long as Capps can keep the turnout in the universities high, she should win but if it is low and Maldonado wins big in San Luis Obispo County, Capps will be in trouble.

California's 24th District Vacant (Elton Gallegly (R)?) Oxnard/Thousand Oaks/Malibu
Brown 47%, Whitman 47%
Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Demographics: 6% Asian, 42% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic if Gallegly does not run, Lean Republican if he does

The 24th district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Inland Santa Barbara County and Simi Valley and gains the Democratic areas of Oxnard and Malibu. The old 24th district voted for Obama by a small margin but Gallegly always performed strongly there. His home Simi Valley is now in the 25th district but Gallegly will probably not run there because voters in the other parts of the new 25th district such as Palmdale are unfamiliar to him. In the last few election cycles though, Gallegly hinted he wants to retire. He has not run a tough race in many years and a 57% Obama district will definitely interest a strong Democratic candidate. That percentage may convince him to retire, paving the way for a strong candidate such as State Senator Fran Pavley (D) from Oxnard. If State Senator Tony Strickland (R) who represents Santa Barbara and the more conservative parts of Ventura County runs, this race will be tough. Still, the Obama turnout in 2012 should help Pavley.

California's 25th District Buck McKeon (R) vs. Elton Gallegly (R) Simi Valley/Santa Clarita/Palmdale
Brown 39%, Whitman 53%
Obama 45%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 8% African American, 7% Asian, 35% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican

The 25th district changes as it loses Mono and Inyo Counties while gaining conservative Simi Valley. The 25th retains conservative Santa Clarita and Democratic trending Palmdale. Although parts of the district are trending Democratic, McKeon is an entrenched incumbent and McCain still won here by 6. McKeon should have no problems against Democrats here and should beat Gallegly in a primary.
California's 26th District David Dreier (R) Covina/San Dimas/Baldwin Park
Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Obama 61%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 15% Asian, 63% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

Dreier's home of San Dimas is in the district but due to Obama's 61% performance here and the 63% Hispanic population, Dreier will probably not run in this district. This district is extremely different from Dreier's current district because this district contains the Hispanic areas of El Monte and Covina although retaining the Republican leaning San Dimas and Glendora areas. As for possible candidates for this district, State Senator Ed Hernandez (D) and the State Assembly's Assistant Majority Whip, Roger Hernandez (D) may consider running here.

California's 27th District Brad Sherman (D) vs. Howard Berman (D) Calabasas/West San Fernando Valley/
Brown 57%, Whitman 38%
Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 4% African American, 12% Asian, 27% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 35% for McCain is too low to let a Republican win in the new 27th district so the real contest should be the primary. In 2002, the San Fernando Valley had a large Hispanic population but it was divided between Sherman's and Berman's districts so Sherman and Berman could be reelected. The commission though decided that the San Fernando Valley needed a Hispanic majority district so they placed the whiter parts of the San Fernando Valley into this district. Although the new 27th district contains more of Sherman's district, Berman has more seniority. Berman has stated he expects to run in the district he lives in and he lives in this district. If Sherman does not want to face a primary challenge, it is possible Sherman will run in the nearby Ventura County district containing Oxnard. As for communities of interest, this district follows that criterion by combining mostly upscale parts of the San Fernando Valley area.

California's 28th District Vacant San Fernando/East San Fernando Valley
Brown 67%, Whitman 28%
Obama 71%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 4% African American, 8% Asian, 68% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

In 2002, many Hispanic groups were unhappy that the San Fernando Valley did not receive a Hispanic majority, despite the area's large Hispanic population. The commission created this Hispanic majority district though by combining areas near I-5 and I-210. Although this district contains large portions of Berman's current district, he expects to run in the 27th district. A possible candidate for the 28th district includes rising star in the State Senate Alex Padilla (D).

California's 29th District Adam Schiff (D) Burbank/Pasadena/Upland
Brown 55%, Whitman 40%
Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics: 6% African American, 12% Asian, 27% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic if Dreier runs

The 29th district mostly represents communities of interest by combining the similar areas of Burbank, Glendale and Pasadena. It also represents Upland in San Bernardino County which is far from BGP but is a community of interest as an upscale foothill community. Dreier may run here because this district and his current district share many of the foothill towns such as Upland and Claremont. Schiff should win though due to his base in the Democratic Pasadena area.

California's 30th District Henry Waxman (D)
Brown 69%, Whitman 25%
Obama 71%, McCain 28%
Demographics: 4% African American, 18% Asian, 37% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The current 30th represents communities of interest by combining upscale communities in the Westside including Malibu, Santa Monica and Beverly Hills. This district though does not completely combine communities of interest. Although it combines some upscale communities such as Pacific Palisades and Beverly Hills, it combines these areas with more working class neighborhoods near Downtown Los Angeles. The 30th district should represent either upscale areas in West LA or working class neighborhoods near Downtown Los Angeles, not both. The two areas have different concerns, one having a large film industry presence while the other is focused more around labor. As for Waxman, he should no problem winning in this heavily Democratic district and the 37% Hispanic is not high enough for a Hispanic primary challenger.

California's 31st District Xavier Beccara (D) vs. Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Eagle Rock/East Los Angeles/Huntington Park
Brown 76%, Whitman 17%
Obama 78%, McCain 16%
Demographics: 10% Asian, 71% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district combines two VRA Hispanic majority districts so if this map passes, it is likely to receive a lawsuit. The Hispanic population in the Los Angeles area is growing and can definitely support Beccara and Allard's districts. The district does combine communities of interest though by representing the heavily Hispanic areas of Huntington Park, East Los Angeles and Commerce.

California's 32nd district Judy Chu (D) Arcadia/Pasadena/Diamond Bar
Brown 54%, Whitman 41%
Obama 61%, McCain 38%
Demographics: 49% Asian, 29% Hispanic
Status: Likely Democratic

The 32nd district becomes less Hispanic by losing all of East Los Angeles, El Monte and West Covina. The district becomes more Asian by gaining Arcadia, Temple City and San Marino. The district then goes toward the San Bernardino County border to gain heavily Asian cities there including Walnut and Diamond Bar. This district suits its representative, Judy Chu because her current district is heavily Hispanic and a Hispanic candidate could unseat her in the primary. The Hispanic population in this district is 29% though so Chu should have no problems winning the Democratic primary. Asians do not consider themselves one ethnic group but they will probably support another Asian candidate over a Hispanic candidate. Although Chu is safe from a primary challenge, Rep. Gary Miller's (R) home of Diamond Bar was drawn into this district. He will probably not run here because not only does this district lean Democratic; he is unfamiliar to the voters in the western half of the district. As for communities of interest, the district combines heavily Asian suburban areas but the western part is in the San Gabriel Foothills while the eastern part is closer to San Bernardino County.


California's 33rd District Karen Bass (D) Culver City/Ladera Heights
Brown 77%, Whitman 17%
Obama 81%, McCain 18%
Demographics: 22% African American, 11% Asian, 37% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 33rd district becomes less African American as it gains neighborhoods between Sunset Blvd., Santa Monica and Beverly Hills and loses some neighborhoods just to Beverly Hills's south. These changes reduce the African American population to 22% and increase the Hispanic population to 37%. Hispanic turnout rates are usually low so there should be higher African American turnout in the Democratic primary than Hispanic turnout. Also, Bass is popular with white liberals so she should perform well with white voters in the primary too. As for communities of interest, this district splits the white population in the Westside that should be represented in one district. The 33rd district's new lines should be similar to its current ones instead.

California's 34th District Vacant Pomona/Ontario
Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Demographics: 7% African American, 9% Asian, 57% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic

This new district contains mostly Hispanic areas by combining Pomona and Ontario. The district also contains Rancho Cucamonga which has a smaller Hispanic population but is close to Pomona and Ontario so it can be considered a community of interest. As for the district's next representative, Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) said, "I'm in." She is a Hispanic State Senator representing Pomona and Ontario. Possible Republicans include David Dreier (R) because he formerly represented Rancho Cucamonga. For Dreier to win though, he will have to perform well with Hispanic voters in Pomona and Ontario. This will be difficult though because McLeod should perform well with Hispanic voters and win in Pomona and Ontario because the voters there are familiar with her. Also, this district is trending Democratic as more Hispanics move here so if a Democrat does not win in 2012, a Democrat should win in '14.

California's 35th District Maxine Waters (D) Inglewood/Westmont/Bell Gardens
Brown 84%, Whitman 9%
Obama 88%, McCain 11%
Demographics: 21% African American, 75% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district is too Democratic to elect a Republican but the primaries will be interesting. The 35th district is now 75% Hispanic and the 21% African American population is probably not enough for Waters to win the primary. Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) may run here because her current district becomes less Hispanic and the new 35th district gains some of her current territory by gaining South Gate. The district's large Hispanic population plus a strong challenge from Sanchez should unseat Waters. The 35th combines communities of interest by representing working class areas in and around South Central Los Angeles.

Thoughts on California's Redistricting Commission's Meeting June 27th

I attended the May 19th commission meeting in Santa Rosa, Ca. My analysis of that meeting is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/my-visit-to-california-redistricting.html
In that meeting, most of the attendees were residents from the North Coast, Sonoma County and Marin County. Only one San Francisco resident attended. Most of the commenter’s advocated for not placing Marin in the same district with San Francisco. The commission listened to the commenter’s by not placing San Francisco and Marin in the same district. Instead, the commisssion's initial plan placed Marin and Del Norte Counties in the same district instead. I also attended a rally on June 18th in San Rafael, Ca and Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) said we should write to the commission to declare our opposition to the new lines connecting Del Norte and Marin Counties. I believed that because of the subject's local attention, many people would attend the June 27th meeting to oppose the new lines the commission drew for the congressional district. I arrived early to get a good spot on line. I was speaker #16.

While waiting, I talked to a few people in the lobby. I talked to a couple from Mendocino County who disliked the lines connecting Marin County to their district. Also, I talked with a group that wanted fair representation for Asians under the new lines. They disliked the State Senate lines that combined Daly City and San Francisco because they believed that Daly City would be underrepresented in the new district. I also talked to a member of the American Cancer Society. She was a resident from American Canyon and later, I would learn that she was not the only one.

The first speakers spoke about redistricting in the South Bay. "Put East Palo Alto in the 12th district," one of them said. Another wanted the tri cities of Menlo Park, Palo Alto and East Palo Alto to be in the same district. A few people advocated for uniting Fremont in one congressional district instead of splitting it between two districts. I believe that Fremont should be split the way it is because I want to increase the Asian percentage in the Milpitas area district to increase the likelihood that this district elects an Asian representative once Mike Honda (D) retires. A group who worked with Napa Valley Winegrowers argued that Sonoma, Lake and Napa Counties belonged in the same congressional district. They did not want Marin with Sonoma but as the speakers in the May 19th meeting indicated, Marin residents did not want to be in the same congressional district with San Francisco.

Finally, the commission called #16 so I went to the podium to speak. I advocated for keeping Marin and Sonoma Counties in the same congressional district because we are connected by the SMART train, dairy farms and Route 101. We also are filled with transplants from San Francisco. I explained how Mendocino County was mostly rural with an economy based on wineries and tourism and Humboldt County also had a tourism based economy. Other facts I highlighted include that Del Norte County is a six hour drive from Marin and that Santa Rosa had around 160,000 people so it belonged in a district with a more urban environment. Marin and Sonoma combined would create a more urban/suburban environment that would be a community of interest with Santa Rosa. I highlighted how the commission's initial plan placed Santa Rosa is in the same congressional district as Yuba City and some Sierra Foothills and I asked the commission what Santa Rosa had in common with those areas. The only road connecting the Sonoma/Napa area to Yuba City is a curvy road through the mountains. If people want to go to Yuba City from Napa, they would drive on Route 80 to Route 5 and this drive passes through four other congressional districts. I also mentioned that Yuba City has a larger agricultural economy while Santa Rosa has less agriculture.

Here I am presenting:

After I spoke, I heard speakers express concern for creating that congressional district that extends from Sausalito to Crescent City. Residents in Crescent City probably disliked the new lines but would not drive six hours to San Francisco to testify. Scott Weiner, the representative of District 8 in San Francisco, argued that San Francisco should be in an odd State Senate district. If San Francisco is in an even one, San Francisco will have no State Senate representative until 2014. He wanted Diamond Heights and Castro to be in the same district. After Weiner spoke, a man wearing a "Don't Tread on me" jacket came and suggested that the districts should be divided by zip codes. A Redwood City resident later said he did not know who his representative was because his zip code was split. I disagree with the zip code idea because while drawing districts, the commission needs to examine factors such as the Voting Rights Act and zip codes do not always combine minority communities effectively. A speaker from Dana Point in Orange County spoke at the meeting too, advocating for combining Monarch Beach and Dana Point in the same district.

Speaker #28 was the first of many speakers working with the California Conservative Action Group (CCAC). They drew maps for California's districts that they say will address the concerns of California's residents. Chris Bowman and Alan Payton drew the maps. Speaker #31, Jerry Diaz with the CCAC said that the congressional plan would combine Marin and Sonoma Counties while Redwood City and Scotts Valley would be in the same congressional district too. Another CCAC speaker criticized the State Senate map that placed Gilroy and Lompoc in the same district. I hope the commission alters this district by dropping the Santa Barbara County portion containing Lompoc because this district will be contested and northern Santa Barbara County leans Republican. #32, Sue Carol with the CCAC argued that the commission should not create district with the same voters but should combine voters by the same regions. If commissioners combined voters by regions, not only would they violate the Voting Rights Act, they would help the Republicans. The current 18th and 20th congressional districts are represented by Democrats because the districts combine Hispanic urban and farming communities across the Central Valley. Even if they do not live near each other, Hispanic farm workers in Fresno and Kern County have similar concerns involving fair treatment and wages. White voters in Clovis and Hispanic voters in South Fresno will have different concerns. #37 also advocated for a congressional line change that will help the Republicans. #37 said that Antioch should not be in the same congressional district with northern San Joaquin County. San Joaquin County is a swing area (it was one of the few counties Boxer lost and Brown won in 2010,) but Antioch leans Democratic and brings the Obama percentage in that district to 58%. By removing Antioch from the district, the San Joaquin County district would have to add more Republican areas such as Manteca and perhaps some Republican leaning parts of Stanislaus County.

After most of the CCAC group members spoke, we heard from many of the LGBT groups in San Francisco. Usually, groups such as the Log Cabin Republicans and Equality California do not join forces but they did for the commission meeting. Dan Brown, a leader with the Log Cabin Republicans said they want an Assembly District with more same sex couples. I also heard from some residents of the DPL area (Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore) who wanted to be in a congressional district with San Ramon and other communities in the San Ramon Valley. Mark Cameron, a city councilmember from Cotati in Sonoma County disagreed with the congressional lines connecting Cotati with Yuba City and said, "We share a common agricultural history with Petaluma and Sebastapol." #43 drove from Siskiyou County on the Oregon border and invited the commission to Siskiyou County because the commission had not been to the Oregon border area in Northern California. I even saw Brian Leubitz, the founder of Calitics, a prominent blog for California politics. He wanted to keep Marin and Sonoma Counties united and wanted more LGBT representation.

Speaker #47 was Mark Joseph, an American Canyon council member and one of the many speakers from American Canyon. Although American Canyon's population is 19,000 people, its residents were well represented at the meeting. A bus from American Canyon brought residents to the meeting and the American Canyon residents had food provided for them. Joseph said that Napa needed to be kept whole and that American Canyon is the industrial base of Napa County with wine bottling and warehousing. 20 years ago, the wine industry in northern Napa County disliked American Canyon but the Assemblywoman they shared worked to unite American Canyon and the rest of Napa County. Speaker #48 was the Napa County Supervisor from American Canyon. He said that, “[the commission] has rallied Napa County like no other.” He also mentioned how American Canyon was treated as “North Vallejo,” and American Canyon did not want to be treated that way. Another speaker referred to American Canyon as “a great little city,” and severing American Canyon from Napa would stifle its voice. One of the most convincing speeches though was delivered by Brenda Knight, Speaker #56 and the chair of Napa Valley College. She described American Canyon as “the most diverse city in Napa. We had to fight for our zip code and post office. We are now accepted in Napa. The new districts erase everything we fought for.” After Knight finished her speech, the American Canyon mayor Leon Garcia announced that he had a petition with 1,103 signatures for keeping American Canyon in the same district with all of Napa County. Speaker #59 was Susan Lee with the American Canyon Chamber of Commerce. She said local business owners oppose the new districts. Speaker #65 said, "Keep Napa Napa." After the American Canyon residents had finished their presentations, Commissioner Peter Yao said he hears American Canyon, “loud and clear.”

Overall, I believe American Canyon did a fantastic job organizing their opposition to the new lines. Not only did they bring in many speakers, they brought a diverse array. They had elected officials, education officials, business representatives and residents. They had representatives of almost every aspect of American Canyon. My advice is that if your town/city wants to advocate for a cause, do not bring one part of the town, and bring people who represent all aspects of the town, suggesting unanimous support for a cause. Not only did American Canyon’s presentation teach me about their town and struggle for acceptance, it taught me how to effectively organize a town for a cause such as fair congressional representation.

Other highlights from this meeting include that only a few Marin residents came to protest the new congressional lines connecting them with Del Norte County. In the May 19th meeting in Santa Rosa, Marin residents were motivated to come and advocate for not being combined with San Francisco. In this meeting, only a few Marin residents appeared to advocate for being combined with almost all of Sonoma County. This could mean that Marin residents are happier with the lines extending to Del Norte County. If one Marin and one North Coast politician face each other in a top two primary, the Marin politician would probably win because of the higher population in the congressional district’s southern part. Also, a few Sonoma County residents attended and many of them wanted to combine Sonoma County in a congressional district with Napa and Mendocino Counties due to the presence of winegrowers there. If the commission combines Napa, Sonoma and Lake into the same congressional district, they may combine Marin County with San Francisco. Although I dislike the congressional district that combines Marin and Del Norte Counties, I would prefer this North Coast district to a San Francisco/Marin district.

Analysis of California's Proposed Congressional Redistricting Maps Part I

On November 2nd, 2010, California voters passed Proposition 20 allowing a commission composed of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 Independents to redraw my state's congressional districts. Previously, the state legislature drew the maps. In the House of Representatives, the representatives represent voters in districts the legislature draws. In recent years though, states such as Washington and California have chosen commissions to draw districts without political influence. In California, the commission traveled around the state to hear public comments from citizens like me and talk to groups such as MALDEF. On June 10th, 2011, the California Redistricting Commission released their first set of maps for California after hearing public comments from meetings such as this one on May 20th that I attended. The guidelines set for the commission were to draw districts that follow the VRA, stick to county boundaries as much as possible and preserve communities of interest. This analysis examines the first 17 congressional districts to examine whether they fit the communities of interest requirements and what happens to the districts' incumbents under the new lines. The commission has dismantled gerrymandered districts such as the 25th which connected Mono County in the High Desert with Santa Clarita in the Los Angeles suburbs. Still, I want to ensure that they have drawn all the districts so the districts respect communities of interest. Here is a link to the new maps of California:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-redistricting-map,0,6145644.htmlstory

The demographics and the voting percentages can be found here: http://redistrictingpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/CRC-First-Draft-Political-Data.pdf
A few notes: I will give district numbers according to the incumbents who live in the districts and/or which incumbent is most likely to run in the district due to factors such as the partisan makeup and familiarity with the constituents.

District 1 Mike Thompson (D) Santa Rosa/Napa/Yuba
Brown 54%, Whitman 38%
Obama 62%, McCain 34%
Demographics: 5% Asian, 29% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

I attended the meeting where the commission heard comments about Santa Rosa. A few meeting attendees said they wanted to combine the Napa area with the Central Valley but no one mentioned combining Santa Rosa with the Central Valley. Santa Rosa is more working class than the surrounding communities but it is not similar to Yuba County. Sonoma County does have agriculture but Santa Rosa is not very agricultural. Yuba County is very agricultural.  Anyway, this district may be a "leftovers district" because these areas had no district for them so they were placed in the 1st district. I would suggest that the lst district should have similar lines to its current form. This would unite Yolo, Napa, Mendocino, Lake, Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. Although Yolo and a few of the North Coast Counties may be different, they are more similar than Santa Rosa and Yuba City because Yolo County has Davis with university liberals and Humboldt County has Humboldt State also with university liberals. It also keeps the theme of counties with small cities instead of one city with around 160,000 people (Santa Rosa) with more rural territory with a few small cities.  Placing Santa Rosa with Marin County and the rest of Sonoma County keeps the theme of medium sized cities/suburbs with some rural areas mixed into the district. The lines help the Democrats though by placing Yuba County in this district because Yuba County could be used in another district to make it more Republican. Anyway, Santa Rosa and Napa County should keep this district in the Democratic column. Mike Thompson's home of St. Helena is located in this district so he may run here.

District 2 Wally Herger (R) Redding/Susanville/Chico
Brown 39%, Whitman 51%
Obama 44%, McCain 50%
Demographics: 14% Hispanic
Status: Likely Republican

The 2nd district combines the northern section of the current 2nd and 4th districts. It appears to follow communities of interest at first because it combines conservative small cities and towns across Northern California. The district contains both agricultural and mountain communities though with Susanville and Tehama County so the district does not completely follow communities of interest. Still, the communities are similar enough but I would prefer a district that contains the Valley and one that contains the high desert instead of containing both. As for a partisan standpoint, the district appears Republican but due to the inclusion of Nevada and Butte Counties, the Republican margin drops. Herger made a gaffe by calling a self described right wing terrorist a "Great American" so a strong Democrat in a very Democratic year will have a shot.

District 3 Dan Lungren (R) Sacramento suburbs
Brown 49%, Whitman 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Asian, 17% Hispanic
Status: Tossup

This district does follow communities of interest by staying in Sacramento County and representing Sacramento suburbs. I have no quibbles with this district from a COIs point of view. As for its partisan makeup, the district becomes a few points more Democratic with Obama's percentage rising from 49% to 51%. This will help Ami Bera (D) who will challenge Lungren in 2012. Bera is a strong fundraiser and lost by seven points to Lungren in 2010, a very Republican year and Lungren ran in a more Republican district.

District 4 Tom McClintock (R) Placer County/Sierras from Placer to Fresno
Brown 36%, Whitman 57%
Obama 41%, McCain 56%
Demographics: 4% Asian, 11% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican
This district contains Placer County, formerly part of McClintock's 4th district but it now contains counties in the Central Sierra instead of the southern Sierra. If McClintock ran here, he should have no trouble because the district is heavily Republican but there is a slight chance the representative of the 19th district Jeff Denham (R) will run here.

District 5 Doris Matsui (D) Sacramento/Elk Grove
Brown 66%, Whitman 29%
Obama 68%, McCain 30%
Demographics: 13% African American, 20% Asian, 26% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district adds Elk Grove but besides this change, it remains similar to its current form. McClintock lives in this district but it is strongly Democratic so Matsui should have no trouble winning here. McClintock will probably run in the 4th district because it contains most of his current district.

District 6 Lynn Woolsey (D) Marin/North Coast/Del Norte County
Brown 64%, Whitman 30%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 16% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

I live in this district but I am opposed to its lines because I believe that Marin County has more in common with Sonoma County than Del Norte County on the Oregon border. Santa Rosa may be more labor based but it shares transportation corridors with the SMART train and closeness to Marin instead of Del Norte which is a 5 hour drive. The 6th district contains some of Sonoma County fortunately with Petaluma, the coast, Windsor,Healdsburg and Cloverdale. The district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative with Obama winning 71% of the vote under these lines so if Woolsey retires, the battle will be in the primary and three candidates from Marin will likely  run. They are Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams (D), progressive activist Norman Solomon (D) and State Assembly member Jared Huffman (D). I attended a peace rally on June 18th in San Rafael actually that featured Norman Solomon, Susan Adams and Lynn Woolsey as speakers. At the rally, Woolsey stated that she wants people to write to the commission to argue for combining Marin and Sonoma in the same district. I hope you will join them.

As for Woolsey's replacement if she retires, Wesley Chesbro (D) a State Assembly member may run from the newly added North Coast. His Assembly district starts in Windsor and extends to Del Norte County on the Oregon border. Although the Marin County/Southern Sonoma and North Coast parts of the district have similar populations numbers, the three Marin candidates may split the Marin vote allowing Chesbro to win by carrying the North Coast. In 2008, a similar scenario appeared likely when the 3rd State Senate district opened and Joe Nation (D) from Marin faced SF candidates Mark Leno (D) and Carole Migden (D). The 3rd State Senate district represented Marin, southern Sonoma County and part of San Francisco. The majority of the district's population lived in San Francisco though. Nation hoped the two SF candidates would split the SF vote. Leno though campaigned hard in Marin, highlighting his liberal positions and lost Marin County by only 7 points, which allowed Leno to win the primary. One of the most important issues for North Coast voters is the environment so a Marin candidate may campaign heavily in the North Coast on the environment. Huffman and Solomon may fight to win the environmental voters while they each try to claim they are more environmentally friendly. This creates an opening for Supervisor Adams though. She can win by running by highlighting her work on three areas: family, health care and women's issues which are important issues for Marin's suburban voters while Huffman, Solomon and Chesbro try to outdo the others on the environment. She has worked on the environment too by helping the Marin County Open Space District and the St. Vincent’s/Silveira land but she should highlight her strong record on families, health care and women's issues while Solomon and Huffman fight for the environmental voters. This strategy could give her the opening she needs to win.

District 7 George Miller (D) Pinole/Solano County/Davis
Brown 60%, Whitman 34%
Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 11% African American, 16% Asian, 25% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district moves northward and now contains all of Solano County as well as Davis in Yolo County. Garamendi may run in this district because it contains part of Sacramento County where Garamendi lives. Miller would probably win here though because the 7th district contains parts of his current district including Pinole, Vallejo and Vacaville.

District 8 Nancy Pelosi (D) San Francisco
Brown 78%, Whitman 17%
Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Demographics: 6% African American, 32% Asian, 15% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district grows a bit to eliminate population deviation but remains strongly Democratic.

District 9 Barbara Lee (D) Richmond/Berkeley/Oakland
Brown 85%, Whitman 10%
Obama 88%, McCain 9%
Demographics: 21% African American, 19% Asian, 23% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 9th district remains the most Democratic district in California by gaining part of Richmond. Also, the 9th district becomes more African American making it harder for a non African American candidate to defeat Lee in a primary.

District 10 John Garamendi (D) Walnut Creek/Concord/Inner Contra Costa County
Brown 59%, Whitman 37%
Obama 67%, McCain 31%
Demographics: 6% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 10th district contains communities of interest by representing higher income communities such as Walnut Creek, Lafayette and Danville in Contra Costa County. Although Garamendi does not live in the 10th district, he could run here because it contains most of his old district which represented the Walnut Creek area and Fairfield. Miller lives here but most of his current district is not in the 10th so it is unlikely he will run here.

District 11 Vacant Jerry McNerney (D)? Antioch/Oakley/Lodi/Stockton
Brown 52%, Whitman 42%
Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Demographics: 9% African American, 14% Asian, 37% Hispanic
Status: Likely Democratic

This district represents towns in eastern Contra Costa County including Antioch, Brentwood and Oakley. It also represents San Joaquin County north of Manteca which includes Democratic Stockton and Republican leaning Lodi. I believe these areas are communities of interest because they include medium sized cities near and in the Central part of the Central Valley. McNerney's current district was carved up under the new lines and he currently represents Brentwood and Lodi. The new lines place McNerney in a district with Rep. Pete Stark (D) so if Stark decides not to retire, McNerney may run here. A primary challenge from a Stockton Democrat is likely though. As for a Republican challenge, McNerney won in a 54% Obama district in a very Republican year so he should win in a 57% Obama district in a neutral year.

District 12 Jackie Speier (D) San Francisco/San Mateo/Redwood City
Brown 67%, Whitman 28%
Obama 74%, McCain 23%
Demographics: 30% Asian, 22% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

Besides gaining East Palo Alto and Half Moon Bay, the 12th district maintains similar lines. Speier should have no trouble winning in this solidly Democratic district.

District 13 Pete Stark (D) vs. Jerry McNerney (D) Hayward/San Leandro/Pleasanton
Brown 62%, Whitman 33%
Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Demographics: 8% African American, 27% Asian, 25% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 13th district undergoes some changes as it loses Fremont and gains Dublin, Pleasanton and Livermore over the hills. Although the district remains strongly Democratic, Jerry McNerney's home of Pleasanton is in the new 13th district. Stark represents more of the new 13th district than McNerney does but Stark is 80 years old so this new district may convince him to retire. If Stark retires, McNerney should not lose in the Republican primary but a Hayward or San Leandro Democrat may run in a primary. The Hayward/San Leandro area has a higher population than the Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore area does so McNerney will have to work hard for the Hayward/San Leandro area. As for communities of interest, Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore are separated by hills but they are in Alameda County and connected by Route 580 to the rest of the district.

District 14 Anna Eshoo (D) Palo Alto/Sunnyvale/Scotts Valley
Brown 62%, Whitman 33%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 31% Asian, 17% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 14th district stays mostly similar to its current form. It does become more of a Santa Clara County district as it loses all of Santa Cruz County except for Scotts Valley. It gains Santa Clara city and Cupertino. These areas are communities of interest by being high income communities in the Silicon Valley area. Scotts Valley though is closer to Santa Cruz than the rest of the district but Scotts Valley was most likely added for population deviation.

District 15 Mike Honda (D)? Campbell/San Jose/Gilroy
Brown 57%, Whitman 37%
Obama 66%, McCain 30%
Demographics: 18% Asian, 30% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Honda lives in this district that represents southern Santa Clara County and the Campbell area, he may not choose to run here. The reason is that the nearby 16th district is heavily Asian and Honda may prefer a district with a larger Asian population. Zoe Lofgren (D) lives in the 16th district but Lofgren and Honda can move and switch districts. As for communities of interest, the district combines the most urban parts of San Jose with the more suburban and rural parts of Santa Clara County but due to population deviation, this could not be avoided.

District 16 Zoe Lofgren (D)? Fremont/Milpitas/San Jose
Brown 62%, Whitman 31%
Obama 69%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 44% Asian, 33% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district represents communities of interest by representing Fremont, Milpitas, and Alum Rock which have similar demographics of large Asian and Hispanic populations. Although Lofgren lives in the 16^th district, she may decide to switch districts with Honda if Honda wants to represent a district with a large Asian population. They may both like the respective districts that contain their residencies so they may not move.

District 17 Sam Farr (D) Santa Cruz/Hollister/King City
Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 5% Asian, 49% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 17^th district adds Corralitos and a few rural communities in Santa Cruz County but besides these additions, the 17^th district does not change at all. It retains communities of interest by representing the two counties on Monterey Bay: Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties. The 17^th also represents San Benito County which has farming communities similar to the farming communities in Monterey’s Salinas Valley. Obama’s 71% of the vote in this district should prevent a Republican candidate from winning but if the district’s Hispanic population continues to grow, Farr may face a serious primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate.

Minnesota Redistricting: The Democrats' Proposal

In Minnesota, the Democrats picked up the Governorship in 2010 with Mark Dayton (D) beating Tom Emmer (R). Despite performing well at a statewide level, the Democrats lost both houses of the state legislature. Besides giving Republicans the power to put initiatives before the voters such as marriage equality, the Democrats and Republicans have split control in redistricting. In the past though, the courts have drawn Minnesota's maps when the Democrats and Republicans had split control because the Republicans and Democrats could not agree on a plan. Although a court drawn map appears very likely, the map I drew here is a suggestion for the Democrats' proposal for Minnesota's congressional map. The map's main objectives were to weaken Chip Cravaack's (R) 8th district and weaken Erik Paulsen's (R) 3rd district. There are a few parts of this plan that may appeal to some Republicans though. For example, Michelle Bachmann's (R) 6th district is strengthened by the removal of Democratic leaning St. Cloud. The Republicans will probably not agree to this plan but this is a suggestion for what the Democrats should propose. This map contains 3 Safe Democratic seats, 1 Likely Democratic seat, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 1 Toss Up and 2 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here are the maps:

Minnesota
Minnesota's 1st District Tim Walz (D) Blue
Obama 182,461 51.8%, McCain 161,245 45.8%
Old District's Presidential Election 2008: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 52.1%, Republicans 47.9%
Demographics: 5.0% Hispanic, 89.0% White
Demographics 18+: 3.8% Hispanic, 91.3% White
Status: Lean Democratic

Although Tim Walz (D) won in 2010, a very Republican year in a swing district that voted for both Bush and Obama, I strengthened the 1st district a bit so a very strong Republican challenger in a very Republican year cannot unseat him. I removed five counties in the western part of the district which combined voted 52%-46% for McCain. To compensate for that population loss, I added Democratic leaning Rice County which voted 55%-42% for Obama and Democratic parts of Goodhue County. Although Walz is not completely safe in this district that contains Red Wing, Waseca and Rochester, he is much safer than before.

Twin Cities

Minnesota's 2nd District John Kline (R) Green
Obama 163,538 45.3%, McCain 190,484 52.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Average 2006-10: Democrats 44.6%, Republicans 55.4%
Demographics: 4.0% Hispanic, 87.6% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 90.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

Kline is a popular incumbent who is already safe in his district. He won in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 with 56% and 57% of the vote respectively. Under the new lines, his district becomes more Republican with the removal of Democratic leaning Rice County and Democratic leaning Eagan. The district gains all of heavily Republican McLeod County and Sibley Counties while gaining parts of Republican Meeker and Wright Counties. The addition of the Republican counties and the loss of the Democratic areas help make the 2nd district more Republican.

Minnesota's 3rd District Erik Paulsen (R) DarkMagenta
Obama 217,112 55.4%, McCain 168,438 42.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Average: Democrats 52.7%, Republicans 47.3%
Demographics: 7.9% African American, 6.6% Asian, 5.4% Hispanic, 77.4% White
Demographics 18+: 6.6% African American, 6.2% Asian, 4.2% Hispanic, 81.3% White
Status: Toss Up

Paulsen has won in the 52% Obama district in 2008 and 2010 but with the district now voting 55% for Obama, he may face a tougher race. The 3rd district loses conservative areas near Maple Grove and gains the Democratic leaning towns of St. Louis, Burnsville, Eagan and Cottage Grove. Although Paulsen's district contains most of his old territory, he may not be entrenched yet because he has represented the district for less than four years. The district's shift toward the Democrats could attract a strong candidate who can beat Paulsen. State Senator Ron Latz (DFL) from St. Louis and Ashwin Madia (DFL), Paulsen's 2008 challenger may consider running in this district.

Twin Cities Core
Minnesota's 4th District Betty McCollum (D) Red
Obama 232,896 63.3%, McCain 127,572 34.7%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 64%, McCain 34%
Average: Democrats 62.3%, Republicans 37.7%
Demographics: 9.2% African American, 9.7% Asian, 7.2% Hispanic, 70.6% White
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 8.0% Asian, 5.7% Hispanic, 76.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district mostly retains its current boundaries and expands to keep the population deviation equal. The 4th district gains Stillwater in Washington County which is Michelle Bachmann's (R) home. Bachmann will not win in a 63% Obama district so she should not challenge McCollum who will continue to have a strong Democratic district.

Minnesota's 5th District Keith Ellison (D) Yellow
Obama 262,448 71.0%, McCain 99,476 26.9%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 74%, McCain 24%
Average: Democrats 70.4%, Republicans 29.6%
Demographics: 14.7% African American, 5.6% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 66.7% White
Demographics 18+: 12.4% African American, 5.2% Asian, 6.7% Hispanic, 72.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district becomes less Democratic with the loss of the heavily Democratic suburb of St. Louis. To keep equal population deviation with other districts, the 5th gains marginal Coon Rapids. The 5th remains the most Democratic district in Minnesota though by containing of all Minneapolis.

Minnesota's 6th District Michelle Bachmann (R) Teal
Obama 153,831 42.6%, McCain 199,737 55.3%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Average: Democrats 43.6%, Republicans 56.4%
Demographics: 2.5% Asian, 91.4% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Asian, 93.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the Democrats dislike Bachmann, she gains a safe district under this map. Her district gains more Republican areas in order to strengthen Democratic chances in the 3rd and 8th districts. The 6th district loses swing areas including St. Cloud, Coon Rapids and Stillwater (Bachmann's home.) The 6th district also gains Republican Isanti and Chisago Counties from the 8th district and Republican Maple Grove in Hennepin County from the 3rd district. These changes raise the McCain percentage in the 6th district from 53% to 55% and make the district more Republican.

Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson (D) Gray
Obama 162,485 47.5%, McCain 171,203 50.1%
Old District's Presidential  Election Data: Obama 47%, McCain 50%
Average: Democrats 48.6%, Republicans 51.4%
Demographics: 4.2% Hispanic, 90.2% White
Demographics 18+: 3.1% Hispanic, 92.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 7th district does not undergo major changes. It retains rural western Minnesota while losing a few Republican counties near the Minneapolis exurbs that have the potential to fill with conservative suburbanites from the Twin Cities area. The 7th district gains a couple of Republican counties from the 8th district in order to strengthen opportunities for Democrats there and the 7th gains a couple of counties on the Iowa border. Although the district voted for McCain, Peterson won in 2010 so if he can win in 2010, he should win in any year. Also, this district is Democratic at a local level so when Peterson retires, a Democratic candidate should have an advantage.

Minnesota's 8th District Chip Cravaack (R) SlateBlue
Obama 198,534 54.5%, McCain 157,205 43.1%
Old District's Presidential Election Data: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Average: Democrats 57.4%, Republicans 42.6%

Demographics: 2.7% Native American, 91.6% White
Demographics 18+: 2.3% Native American, 93.2% White
Status: Lean Democratic

Cravaack won the 8th district in an upset by beating James Oberstar (D) in the heavily Republican year of 2010 which hit Minnesota hard. Although Democrats won the Governorship, the margin was closer than expected and the Democrats lost control of the state legislature. Cravaack won in this traditionally Democratic district containing Duluth and the Iron Range by winning large margins in the fast growing Republican leaning counties such as Isanti and Chisago. I removed both of those counties and added Democratic leaning St. Cloud. These changes bring the Obama percentage to almost 55%. If 2012 is even a neutral year, a Democrat should win in this district.

Thoughts from the California Redistricting Commission Meeting

As you may know, redistricting is one of my biggest passions and California's redistricting situation is no exception. I have written three separate posts revising and editing my proposed California redistricting maps and I have sent my most recent version to the commission. On May 20th, I decided to share my thoughts with them because the commission would be holding a public comment meeting in Santa Rosa. Although California is keeping all 53 of its congressional districts, slow population growth increases the likelihood that the Bay Area will lose a district. Some proposals say that Marin County should be combined with San Francisco and as a Marinite, I like San Francisco but we do not belong in the same district. We belong with Sonoma County instead.

As I drove north to Santa Rosa, I looked at the traffic on the highway. This further highlighted my argument that Marin County and Sonoma County were communities of interest in the way they shared commuting issues. San Francisco did not have these same issues. I was not surprised to hear three people mention the traffic in their public comments about how the similar traffic issues connect Marin County and Sonoma together.

We arrived smoothly and I became speaker #23 by being the 23rd person in line. While waiting on line, I talked to three women. They were all from Napa and one of them wanted to connect Napa and Sonoma together. Another though wanted Napa to be in a more agricultural district with Central Valley counties. She drew a map with Napa, Yolo, Glenn, Colusa and Lake Counties. It was handrawn so I said, "You should try Dave's Redistricting App (DRA). It gives you the correct population numbers and demographics." They said they would check it and I hope they like DRA as much as I do. They later introduced me to a few Republican activists from Napa who were very nice. I did not mention that I am a Democrat. A few minutes later, I told a Mendocino presenter about my recent redistricting plan. I told her about my proposal for the 1st district. She liked that I included Lake County, liked that I added Trinity but I am not too sure if she liked that I added Yolo County. I quickly explained that my 1st district was composed of tourist areas and university areas. Yolo County is a university town with UC Davis while Humboldt County has Humboldt State. Also, the liberals in Yolo County probably agree on more issues with North Coast liberals than conservative rural voters in the Central Valley or more moderate Democrats in Solano County.

When I arrived, there was a small line of people waiting for ticket numbers but as 6:00 drew closer, more people arrived and all the seats were filled by 6:00. At 6:00, the commission member presiding was Vincent P. Barabba, a registered Republican from Capitola. He has connections to Marin County though by serving on the now closed Hamilton Air Force Base.

As the speakers began, I believed there would be similar perspectives on Marin and Sonoma County staying united. The first speakers though were from Mendocino arguing for placing as much of Sonoma County as possible with Mendocino County. The Mendocino County speaker I spoke to advocated for not placing Redding and Mendocino County in the same district. She and one of her friends said that it takes around 3 hours on a day with no traffic to drive to Eureka from Redding. "We have nothing in common with Redding," they said. I agree because the Redding area and the Central Valley have an agriculture based economy while Mendocino/Humboldt Counties are based less around agriculture. Another Mendocino County speaker was a member of the Pomo tribe and wanted all the Pomo Lands in the same district. Not many people consider Native American tribal lands while redistricting in California (they do though in Arizona with the Navajo and the Hopi) so I was really glad the Pomo tribe member shared her concerns.

Also, a presenter stated that she wanted Sonoma and Napa to be combined into the same districts because she wanted the wine country to stay united. The Napa County Board of Supervisors wanted Napa to stay united too. I agree with keeping Napa united but it is possible the commission will place American Canyon in the same district as Vallejo because they are similar communities. Another speaker suggested that Napa should be combined with Central Valley counties such as Glenn and Colusa. The next speaker though advocated for not combining Central Valley counties north of Yolo with Napa County because the agricultural interests are different. Napa grows mostly wine while Colusa and Glenn grow other crops such as almonds.

When my number 23 was called, I felt a bit worried because many of the previous speakers advocated for uniting Sonoma County with Mendocino or Napa Counties. I was worried my comment would go over the two minute limit but I stood and began to read. I talked about how Marin and Sonoma are two counties with mostly upscale suburban communities and San Francisco is an urban area not even connected by land to Marin County. As I stopped, I turned around to see applause. My suggestion that these two "upscale suburban communities" should be combined was even quoted in the paper:
http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20110520/ARTICLES/110529908?p=2&tc=pg

As the meeting progressed, more and more Marin speakers appeared, advocating for uniting Marin and Sonoma. I realized that many of the Marinites were stuck in the traffic that I faced while driving to Santa Rosa. A few of them mentioned it in their comments. I heard other great arguments from the speakers for uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. A firefighter discussed how the routes he drove to fight fires showed how Marin and Sonoma were connected. A Marin County resident stated how Marinites care about grass fires, not graffiti and that Marinites care about the Mt. Tamalpais Watershed, not Hetch Hetchy. A speaker from San Anselmo in Marin County who helped repair the damage of a flood that decimated local businesses said, "We would be more forceful if we joined forces with Sonoma County, a similar county." Another speaker asked the commission, "How many redwoods are in San Francisco?" Marin County has a reputation for its redwood forests and hiking trails on Mt. Tamalpais while San Francisco does not have much hiking. A speaker who lived in both Marin and San Francisco made a great argument by saying, "San Francisco has universities and public transportation. When I lived in San Francisco, I saw Marin as "the country." It reminded me of my Grandma's Farm outside of Boston." Also, I was not the only young person at the meeting. An eighth grader from Sonoma said she supported uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. Susan Adams, one of Marin's County Supervisors also gave a strong argument for uniting Marin and Sonoma Counties. Judy House, a former city council member of San Anselmo gave a summary of the crowd's feeling by saying, “There is an overriding sense that Marin would like to be with Sonoma."

Overall, I really enjoyed going to the commission meeting. Although a few people supported combining Sonoma with Mendocino or Napa County, the crowd clearly favored combining Marin and Sonoma Counties. I hope that the commission sees the connections between Marin and Sonoma Counties and decides to draw a district similar to the current 6th district which combines Marin and Sonoma Counties.

California Redistricting: The Democrat's Proposal (Updated with Demographics)

Before November 2nd 2010, it appeared that Democrats would control the redistricting process because most polls suggested Jerry Brown (D) would become Governor. Brown did win and the Democrats retained their majorities in the state legislature. They, however, lost control of the redistricting process. The voters passed Proposition 20 which transferred the redistricting power from the state legislature to a 14 member commission compromised of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 independents. The commission must draw districts according to communities of interest which are similar communities based on the residents' ethnicities, location and income. Drawing districts according to the VRA is more important though on the priority list. Also, at least three members of each party must approve the map before it takes effect. Even if Democrats do not control redistricting the way they used to, they will certainly propose some maps to the committee that will protect Democratic incumbents and eliminate a few Republicans who are in gerrymandered districts. Although the Democrats crafted the 2002 map as a bipartisan plan, the lines resemble a Republican gerrymander. For example, San Bernardino and Riverside County both cast narrow majorities for Obama and have about 5 districts between them. A Democrat only holds one of those districts. The Democrat is Joe Baca (D) but his district does not even touch Riverside County. So Riverside County which voted for Obama and has enough people for nearly three districts does not even have a Democratic representative. Also, Orange County voted for McCain by three points and has around 3 million people, enough population for almost five districts. How many Democratic districts cover at least part of Orange County? The answer is only one: the 47th district represented by Loretta Sanchez (D) which covers Santa Ana and Anaheim. Although Democrats worry that the independent commission will carve up districts leaving Democratic incumbents with no familiar territory, Democrats should not be too worried. The commission likely will weaken many Republicans too.

This leads to why I am drawing this map and it is because I am predicting what the Democrats will propose to the commission. Although the commission makes the final decision, both parties will draw up proposals suggesting what the commission should do. For the Democrats, their proposal needs to protect their incumbents, create more opportunities in the Inland Empire and Central Valley while not drawing convoluted lines. Also, my proposal respects the VRA which requires a certain number of minority majority districts in order to ensure minorities are not underrepresented in the House. For example, I made the 15th and 32nd districts with Asian representatives more Asian. I also created three new districts designed to elect Hispanics because California's Hispanic population is growing rapidly and will need representation. Also, California's Hispanic population is 36% and there are only 8 Hispanic representatives in 53 congressional districts. The problem is that Hispanic turnout rates are low so districts with a Hispanic percentage of 51% will not have enough Hispanic voters to elect a Hispanic representative. If the district is Democratic but has Republican white voters though, there can be enough Hispanics in the Democratic primary to elect a Hispanic candidate. Some of my districts have low Hispanic populations but the population numbers are from ten years ago so the Hispanic population should be larger. I also created 29 Safe Democratic seats, three Likely Democratic seats, five lean Democratic seats, three Toss Up seats, one Lean Republican seat, two Likely Republican seats (these could be competitive in a few years if demographic trends continue) and ten Safe Republican seats. I wanted to create more seats for the Democrats but I did not want convoluted lines because the commission will reject those. Anyway, here are some helpful links and the maps:

A side note: this is an updated version of the California map I drew in February. This map includes updated demographic information as well as some different lines. The old version of my map can be found here: http://frogandturtle.blogspot.com/2011/02/california-redistricting.html

Current maps of California's congressional districts: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/congress.html

A few notes: if you want a better picture of the maps, click on them.  Old Demographics means the demographics of the old districts. "Change" represents how the partisan makeup of the district is compared to the old lines.

Northern California

California's 1st Congressional District Mike Thompson (D) Blue
Obama 194,639 64%, McCain 99,977 33%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 23.7% Hispanic, 62.9% White
Demographics VAP: 6.4% Asian, 19.8% Hispanic, 67.3% White
Old Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 71% White
Communities of Interest: Eureka, Clear Lake, Napa
Status: Safe Democratic

Mike Thompson's district becomes a few points more Republican with the loss of some Sonoma County towns and the addition of Republican Colusa and Glenn Counties. Those changes are not significant population wise and the Democratic counties of Yolo, Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino and Humboldt keep this district safe for Thompson.


California's 2nd Congressional District Wally Herger (R) Green
Obama 121,124 42%, McCain 161,724 56%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 4.3% Asian, 17.1% Hispanic, 71.9% White
Demographics VAP: 4.1% Asian, 14.1% Hispanic, 75.8% White
Old Demographics: 14% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Redding, Chico, Yuba City
Status: Safe Republican

The district undergoes some geographical changes but the politics and the demographics of the district do not change much. The district loses Trinity, Colusa and Glenn Counties to the 1st but picks up Modoc, Lassen, Plumas and Sierra Counties to the east. Those counties make the district a bit more Republican but it was already safe for its representative who called a right wing terrorist a "Great American." It also remains compact.

Sacramento Area

California's 3rd Congressional District Dan Lungren (R) Purple
Obama 144,966 52%, McCain 131,111 47%
Change: Obama +5
Demographics: 7.2% African American, 10.2% Asian, 18.2% Hispanic, 59.5% White
Demographics VAP: 6.9% African American, 10.2% Asian, 15.3% Hispanic, 63.7% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 10% Hispanic, 74% White
Communities of Interest: Citrus Heights, Folsom
Status: Toss Up

In 2008 and 2010, Democrats believed they had the candidate to beat Lungren but he held onto his seat. He won by seven points in 2010 against Ami Bera (D), a strong candidate in a strong Republican year. 2012 should be a neutral year at best for Republicans. Bera announced that he will run for Lungren's seat so Democrats already have a strong candidate. The district is more Democratic now because the district is entirely in Sacramento County. It used to contain some Republican leaning rural counties but by losing those, the district becomes more Democratic.

California's 4th Congressional District Tom McClintock (R) Red
Obama 154,066 45%, McCain 184,422 53%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 13.3% Hispanic, 76.8% White
Old Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 83% White
Demographics VAP: 4.6% Asain, 11.0% Hispanic, 80.1% White
Communities of Interest: Roseville, Auburn, Nevada City
Status: Safe Republican

The district appears to undergo major changes by losing some northern rural counties but it actually keeps most of its residents. It becomes more of a Sacramento suburban district than a northern rural district though. It picks up rural parts of Yuba County and retains suburban Placer and El Dorado Counties while losing heavily Republican counties in northeast California. McClintock had a tough race here in 2008 and although the district becomes two points more Democratic, McClintock should be safe.

California's 5th Congressional District Doris Matsui (D) Yellow
Obama 170,015 67%, McCain 80,493 32%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 12.6% African American, 19.8% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 37.2% White
Demographics VAP: 12.2% African American, 20.1% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 41.9% White
Old Demographics: 14% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Sacramento, Elk Grove
Status: Safe Democratic

Matsui's district remains similar to its current configuration. It retains heavily minority and Democratic parts of Sacramento County. The only significant difference is that I extended her district up to the northern Sacramento County border to pick up some Republican areas to weaken the 3rd. Matsui's district is completely safe for her and she is too popular for a successful primary challenge.

Bay Area

California's 6th Congressional District Lynn Woolsey (D) Teal
Obama 266,842 76%, McCain 79,189 23%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 4.7% Asian, 21.4% Hispanic, 68.5% White
Old Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Novato, San Rafael, Santa Rosa
Status: Safe Democratic

Besides losing the Mendocino County border and picking up the Sonoma Valley, the 6th district does not change much. It remains very white and heavily Democratic. The commission's new map may look different though regarding the 6th district. There are proposals to eliminate the 6th district by putting Sonoma in the 1st district and Marin County in the 8th district. This violates communities of interest though because Marin County and Sonoma Counties are upscale suburban communities while San Francisco is a dense urban area. Also, the commission must try not to break county lines and in this situation, the 8th district crosses the SF/Marin County line although San Francisco has more than enough people for one district. Also, a district combining Marin and San Francisco relies on water contiguity which many critics view as unfair. Also, putting Santa Rosa in the 1st district violates communities of interest for that district too because Santa Rosa is an urban community which is different from the current 1st district which is filled with small cities and rural areas. One may argue that the Sonoma County district should extend east to make it more urban but population purposes would cause Vallejo to go into the same district as Santa Rosa. Vallejo is a lower income area and has more similar economic interests and connections with the East Bay than Santa Rosa. Therefore, it appears that the only option to satisfy communities of interest is to keep the 6th district as an upscale suburban district, not a district that combines urban and suburban communities that are not even connected by land. Also, it is important to give the 1st district similar lines to the one on my map because it will retain its characteristic of rural areas and small cities.

California's 7th Congressional district George Miller (D) Gray
Obama 205,912 66%, McCain 100,000 32%
Change: McCain +11
Demographics: 5.9% African American, 16.2% Asian, 19.9% Hispanic, 53.7% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% African American, 16.4% Asian, 17.3% Hispanic, 57.4% White
Old Demographics: 17% African American, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: Pinole, Martinez, Danville
Status: Safe Democratic

Miller's district becomes less Democratic by losing all of its territory except for Pinole, Concord, Pittsburg and Martinez (his home.) I had to move Richmond out of his district to boost the African American population of the 9th district. I do not know if Miller will like running under these new lines that now include Lafayette, Walnut Creek and Danville. Even though this is the Democrats' proposal, they will have to make the lines compact for the commission to even consider the proposal. Anyway, this district is too Democratic for a Republican to win because Obama won 66% here which is higher than his statewide average of 61%. Also, no other representative lives in this district so Miller should not face a primary challenge.

San Francisco/Oakland

California's 8th Congressional District Nancy Pelosi (D) Slate Blue
Obama 282,175 85%, McCain 42,836 13%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 6.4% African American, 16.3% Hispanic, 30.9% Asian, 42.6% White
Demographics 18+: 6.2% African American, 15.0% Hispanic, 30.8% Asian, 45.0% White
Old Demographics: 9% African American, 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 43% White
Communities of Interest: San Francisco
Status: Safe Democratic

Pelosi's district picks up a few precincts in the eastern Sunset District and her district extends to the 19th Ave's eastern border. Besides this change, her district retains its current form.

California's 9th District Barbara Lee (D) Periwinkle
Obama 281,944 90%, McCain 24,082 8%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 21.8% African American, 17.6% Asian, 25.2% Hispanic, 31.0% White
Demographics 18+: 21.7% African American, 18.8% Asian, 21.6% Hispanic, 34.3% White
Old Demographics: 26% African American, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 35% White
Communities of Interest: Richmond, Berkeley, Oakland
Status: Safe Democratic

Lee's district does change a bit as it loses a few Hispanic neighborhoods in South Oakland. Her district's population growth was minimal so it needed to pick up people. It moved north into Contra Costa County to pick up Richmond with a large African American population. Although Lee should be reelected, she will want a high African American population. Her district will get 2 points more African American and it will be even more Democratic.

California's 10th Congressional District John Garamendi (D) Deepink
Obama 163,340 60%, McCain 106,442 39%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 11.2% African American, 11.9% Asian, 26.9% Hispanic, 44.9% White
Demographics 18+: 11.2% African American, 12.6% Asian, 23.0% Hispanic, 49.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 65% White
Communities of Interest: Vallejo, Fairfield, Pittsburg
Status: Safe Democratic

Garamendi's district picks up Vallejo in Solano County. It loses Livermore which voted for Bush in 2004, and the 10th district loses the Walnut Creek area. To compensate for the loss of those areas, the 10th district picks up all of Solano County including heavily Democratic Vallejo. The 10th district also picks up more Central Valley territory because the population growth in the Bay Area is slower than the rest of the state and I needed to push the districts further east to make sure the districts had equal populations. Picking up Lodi to protect McNerney in the 11th district who won by only one point in 2010 does make the 10th district a couple points more Republican. A 60% Obama percentage is high enough to keep Garamendi safe though. Also, Obama did well in the Walnut Creek area formerly in the 10th district but many of the voters there can swing to Republicans. The Democrats in Vallejo which I moved into the 10th district usually stick with the Democratic ticket though.

California's 11th District Jerry McNerney (D) Chartreuse
Obama 117,947 56% McCain 87,870 42%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 7.4% African American, 14.4% Asian, 38.2% Hispanic, 36.0% White
Demographics 18+: 7.3% African American, 14.8% Asian, 33.5% Hispanic, 41.1% White
Old Demographics: 3% African American, 9% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Tracy, Stockton, Modesto
Status: Lean Democratic

At a first glance, it appears that McNerney's district becomes more Republican because it loses all of its territory in Democratic Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara Counties. McNerney's district becomes four points more Democratic though with the addition of Democratic parts of Stockton, the removal of Lodi and the addition of Democratic parts of Modesto. I did not want to county split here but for population purposes, I had to do so. McNerney should still face challenges but if he could survive in a more Republican district in a very Republican year, he should win in this new district. Also, San Joaquin County which makes up a large portion of his district is trending Democratic quickly as Bay Area residents move into the Central Valley.

California's 12th District Jackie Speier (D) Cornflower
Obama 221,611 74%, McCain 71,441 24%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 32.2% Asian, 21.5% Hispanic, 40.3% White
Demographics 18+: 33.0% Asian, 19.3% Hispanic, 42.7% White
Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: South San Francisco, Redwood City, Half Moon Bay
Status: Safe Democratic

Speier's district shifts a bit south. She loses a few neighborhoods in SF but picks up some Hispanic neighborhoods in Redwood City. She also picks up Half Moon Bay and all of rural San Mateo County. These changes do not significantly alter her Democratic district.

California's 13th District Pete Stark (D) Darksalmon
Obama 192,824 70%, McCain 68,594 28%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 7.8% African American, 25.3% Asian, 25.3% Hispanic, 37.1% White
Demographics 18+: 7.7% African American, 22.4% Hispanic, 25.8% Asian, 40.6% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 28% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 38% White
Communities of Interest: San Leandro, Fremont, Pleasanton
Status: Safe Democratic

Stark's district gets a few points more Republican with the addition of Dublin, Pleasanton and Livermore. I did not want to connect Stark's district with those areas because they are not very similar communities but the 13th district follows Route 580 to connect them. Anyway, the district still stays heavily Democratic and safe for Stark.

San Jose

California's 14th District Anna Eshoo (D) Olive
Obama 218,686 71% McCain 82,344 27%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 23.5% Asian, 18.5% Hispanic, 51.6% White
Demographics 18+: 23.7% Asian, 16.2% Hispanic, 54.7% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 59% White
Communities of Interest: Mountain View, Saratoga, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic

Eshoo's district becomes a few points more Republican by losing northern Santa Cruz County and picking up western San Jose. Yes, I understand that Tom Campbell (R) held a district in the 1990's similar to this one. The 14th district has trended Democratic rapidly though in the last ten years and Obama won 71% of the vote here. Eshoo should have absolutely no worries, even if Campbell decided to run.

California's 15th District Mike Honda (D) Darkorange
Obama 171,018 70% McCain 68,779 28%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 50.5% Asian, 16.6% Hispanic, 26.3% White
Demographics 18+: 50.0% Asian, 14.9% Hispanic, 29.5% White
Old Demographics: 29% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 47% White
Communities of Interest: Fremont, Cupertino, San Jose
Status: Safe Democratic

This district becomes more Asian by losing white neighborhoods in San Jose while picking up Asian neighborhoods in Fremont and Sunnyvale. It also picks up a few Asian neighborhoods south of Milpitas. These changes make the district an Asian majority district. The commission has 5 Asians so I expect they will create some districts that will elect Asians such as this one. Honda is Asian but the Asian population in this district increases the chance that his successor will be too. If current population trends continue, his district will have an even larger Asian population as the decade progresses.

California's 16th Congressional District Zoe Lofgren (D) Lime
Obama 164,245 69%, McCain 69,832 29%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 26.1% Asian, 40.9% Hispanic, 27.1% White
Demographics 18+: 27.3% Asian, 36.7% Hispanic, 30.6% White
Old Demographics: 23% Asian, 38% Hispanic, 31% White
Communities of Interest: San Jose, Gilroy, Morgan Hill
Status: Safe Democratic

Lofgren's district does not become less Democratic or Republican but an issue arises. Her district gets a few points more Hispanic and with her district's growing Hispanic population, she may face a primary challenge from a Hispanic. Lofgren should win though because she is familiar with most of the 16th district's voters and the Hispanic population is still not high enough to unseat her. If she retires in a few years, Hispanics will have a big chance to elect a representative here. Anyway, she gets new territory in Hispanic Gilroy and Morgan Hill. Her district keeps communities of interest though by staying within the county boundaries.

Central California

California's 17th District Sam Farr (D) Darkslateblue
Obama 192,791 71%, McCain 71,552 26%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 5.3% Asian, 45.5% Hispanic, 44.3% White
Demographics 18+: 5.9% Asian, 39.5% Hispanic, 49.9% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Cruz, Monterey
Status: Safe Democratic

Farr's district becomes a few points more Republican but remains very safe. It is still a compact district containing all of Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties while taking a small slice of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses all of agricultural San Benito County to the agricultural 18th district. The 17th picks up Republican leaning Paso Robles because it is in the Salinas Valley which is a community of interest in Monterey County. This also keeps Paso Robles out of the 23rd district.

California's 18th District Dennis Cardoza (D) Yellow
Obama 104,557 56%, McCain 78,223 42%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 5.4% Asian, 57.3% Hispanic, 32.0% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 51.8% Hispanic, 37.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 42% Hispanic, 39% White
Communities of Interest: Hollister, Modesto, Merced
Status: Lean Democratic

Cardoza's district becomes more Republican because the commission will want it to have compact lines. Thus, it will lose the finger into heavily Democratic Stockton. To compensate for the loss, the 18th district will go over the Diablo Range through Pacheco Pass to pick up San Benito County which is mostly agricultural like the rest of the district and leans Democratic. The 18th district also gains Gilroy which is in Santa Clara County but has an agricultural based economy too. The district splits Madera County with the 19th which breaks county lines but western Madera is very similar to the rest of the district so it is a community of interest. As for Cardoza himself, his district is more Republican because he loses his stronghold of Stockton. The district is growing Democratic though, he won strongly in 2010, a very Republican year and the majority of the voting age population is Hispanic. If current population trends continue, the Hispanic population will continue to grow.


California's 19th District Jeff Denham (R) Yellow Green
Obama 100,331 42%, McCain 136,040 56%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 33.8% Hispanic, 57.8% White
Demographics 18+: 28.2% Hispanic, 63.4% White
Old Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 59% White
Communities of Interest: Turlock, Mammoth Lakes, Barstow
Status: Safe Republican

The Sierras and the Mojave Desert used to be diced up between the Los Angeles centered 25th district and the formerly Central Valley centered 19th district so they were not united in one district. They are now part of the new 19th which is probably the most rural district in California now. The 19th loses all of Fresno and the parts of the Central Valley it has are mostly rural and white. Rural San Bernadino County may be far from the northern part of the district but these areas have similar residents. As for Denham, his district was already safe so he should be fine.

Fresno Area

California's 20th District Jim Costa (D) Pink
Obama 93,033 58%, McCain 63,673 40%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 5.5% African American, 8.5% Asian, 63.5% Hispanic, 20.3% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 8.5% Asian, 58.8% Hispanic, 24.6% White
Old Demographics: 7% African American, 6% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Fresno, Delano
Status: Likely Democratic

Costa faced a tough reelection bid in 2010 and I would have strengthened his position but I wanted a district that the commission would approve due to compactness. His district gets a couple of points more Republican but he loses part of heavily Republican Kings County which has more in common with Tulare County which is partly in the 21st district. In his close 2010 reelection bid, Costa lost Kings County by more than 20 points. Costa gains more of his base in Fresno County which he won overwhemingly. His district has a minority population of 75% 18+. Nevertheless, if Costa can win in 2010, he can win any year.

California's 21st District Devin Nunes (R) Maroon
Obama 91,225 41%, McCain 129,299 58%
Change: McCain +3
Demographics: 6.8% Asian, 43.3% Hispanic, 43.2% White
Demographics 18+: 6.9% Asian, 38.0% Hispanic, 48.7% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Communities of Interest: Clovis, Visalia, Hanford
Status: Safe Republican

With the addition of half of Kings County, the 21st district becomes more Republican. While it loses some Republican parts of Tulare County such as Porterville, it also loses some Democratic parts of Fresno County. Although the district looks less compact than its original form, it still contains similar communities.

California's 22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Salmon
Obama 80,970 40%, McCain 120,213 59%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 5.4% African American, 47.2% Hispanic, 40.8% White
Demographics 18+: 5.3% African American, 41.9% Hispanic, 46.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 21% Hispanic, 67% White
Communities of Interest: Shafter, Bakersfield, California City
Status: Safe Republican

The district loses portions of Los Angeles and San Luis Obispo Counties. It is now completely in Kern County and it picks up some Democratic neighborhoods in Bakersfield from the 20th district. The 22nd district also loses Ridgecrest for population purposes. These changes make the 22nd more Democratic but it is still strongly Republican and more compact.

California's 23rd District Lois Capps (D) Aquamarine
Obama 174,392 58%, McCain 122,791 40%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 4.1% Asian, 34.9% Hispanic, 56.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.5% Asian, 29.7% Hispanic, 61.2% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura
Status: Likely Democratic

Santa Barbara, a liberal university town with an economy based largely on tourism is not too similar to northern Santa Barbara County which is conservative and has an economy based on the Vanderburg Air Force Base and agriculture. Northern Santa Barbara County has tried to split from Santa Barbara County for those reasons. The 23rd district will unite them though because compactness is important. The 23rd also picks up all of San Luis Obispo County. The district loses heavily Democratic Oxnard which brings the McCain percentage up to 40%. In the 1990s, the district was competitive with similar lines but this area has trended Democratic since then so I expect Capps will retain her seat.

California's 24th District Elton Gallegly (R) Indigo
Obama 160,848 55%, McCain 124,572 43%
Change: Obama +8
Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 42.4% Hispanic, 46.7% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% Asian, 37.8% Hispanic, 51.3% White
ld Demographics: 4% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 69% White
Communities of Interest: Oxnard, Moorpark, Simi Valley
Status: Tossup

This district loses the conservative parts of Santa Barbara County and picks up heavily Democratic Oxnard instead. This increases the Obama percentage in the district to 55%. Gallegly is an entrenched incumbent but he is not familiar with the voters in Oxnard. Gallegly could win by winning big margins in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks. Gallegly keeps hinting he wants to retire so these new lines may convince him to do so. If he leaves, the seats will be hotly contested but I expect the Democrat to win by a few points. A possible candidate is State Senator Fran Pavley (D) who's State Senate district includes Oxnard. If Gallegy retires, State Senator Tony Strickland (R) may run here too.

West LA

California's 25th District Buck McKeon (R) Pale Violet Red
Obama 121,333 49% McCain 121,347 49%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 10.1% African American, 6.5% Asian, 37.6% Hispanic, 42.5% White
Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 7.0% Asian, 33.7% Hispanic, 47.1% White
Old Demographics: 8% African American, 4% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 57% White
Communities of Interest: Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Victorville
Status: Likely Republican

This district shrinks as it loses rural areas in the desert and eastern Sierras. It still resembles a tossup because Obama barely won it but this district is strongly Republican. Kerry won only 40% here and McKeon is highly popular. When he retires, a strong Democrat against a weak Republican can win here but although this area is trending Democratic, it is still Republican at a local level.

California's 26th District Darrell Issa (R) Gray
Obama 136,674 50%, McCain 131,713 48%
Change: Obama +8 (the old 49th District.)
Demographics: 7.0% Asian, 31.5% Hispanic, 55.4% White
Demographics 18+: 7.4% Asian, 27.1% Hispanic, 60.3% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 4% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 57% White
Communities of Interest:  Oceanside, Carlsbad
Status: Lean Republican

Although Issa represents the 49th district currently, this district has most of the old 49th district including his home so I expect him to run here. The district has become more Democratic with the removal of conservative inland areas and the addition of some coastal towns such as Carlsbad which lean Democratic. Even though Obama won this district, Issa should win here because he is popular, has money and still retains most of his old district's territory. If Issa retired, a strong Democrat such as Nick Leibham could make this seat competitive.

LA Area Zoom out

California's 27th District Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D) Springgreen
Obama 179,810 63%, McCain 98,652 35%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 29.9% Hispanic, 51.5% White
Demographics 18+: 11.9% Asian, 26.7% Hispanic, 54.8% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 11% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 44% White
Communities of Interest: Agoura Hills, Chatsworth, Northridge
Status: Safe Democratic

This district changes as it picks up the Agoura Hills and Northridge areas. Although this district is too Democratic for a Republican, there might be a big primary fight here. I am not sure if the Democratic party will like combining the two incumbents but the commission may do it in order to create a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. Hispanic groups have been pushing for years to create one here. This district combines most of the white parts of the San Fernando Valley. Although this district contains more of Sherman's territory, Berman is more entrenched and he has the backing of Waxman. His backing may translate into votes in the parts of Waxman's old district such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas if Waxman campaigns strongly for Berman. Anyway, this will be an interesting race or Sherman may decide not to run here but run in the nearby 24th instead if Gallegly retires.

California's 28th District Vacant Plum
Obama 120,378 72%, McCain 43,871 25%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 8.8% Asian, 66.1% Hispanic, 19.9% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 31% White
Communities of Interest: San Fernando, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic

No matter what the Democrats or Republicans propose, the commission will probably create a strong Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley due to its high Hispanic population and the lack of a Hispanic representative. This district formerly belonged to Howard Berman (D) but he will probably run in the new 30th District or retire. Regardless, a 66% Hispanic population should be enough for a Hispanic to win. A possible candidate would be rising star Alex Padilla (D).

California's 29th District Adam Schiff (D) Darkseagreen
Obama 183,315 67%, McCain 85,088 31%
Change: McCain +2
Demographics: 4.6% African American, 15.1% Asian, 27.6% Hispanic, 49.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.7% African American, 15.6% Asian, 24.8% Hispanic, 52.1% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 24% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 39% White
Communities of Interest: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena
Status: Safe Democratic

The district loses a few majority Asian neighborhoods east of Pasadena and gains a higher white population but despite these changes, the district remains Democratic.
California's 30th District Henry Waxman (D) Lightcoral
Obama 272,769 76%, McCain 80,664 22%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 11.3% Hispanic, 70.6% White
Demographics 18+: 11.3% Asian, 10.6% Hispanic, 71.3% White
Old Demographics: 9% Asian, 8% Hispanic, 76% White
Communities of Interest: Malibu, Beverly Hills, Los Angeles
Status: Safe Democratic

The 30th district loses neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley and towns such as Agoura Hills and Calabasas. The district picks up Tarzana to compensate for the population loss. This helps make the district more Democratic even though this district was safe for Waxman already.

California's 31st District Xavier Beccara (D) Khaki
Obama 120,249 81%, McCain 25,037 17%
Change: Obama +1
Demographics: 5.6% African American, 18.3% Asian, 64.0% Hispanic, 10.5% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% African American, 20.9% Asian, 58.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 14% Asian, 70% Hispanic, 10% White
Communities of Interest: Downtown Los Angeles, Clement Junction, Silver Lake
Status: Safe Democratic

Beccara's district becomes more compact as it picks up areas such as Boyle Heights from the 34th District. It loses a few Hispanics but still remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

Los Angeles Zoom in

California's 32nd District Judy Chu (D) Orangered
Obama 129,104 59% McCain 84,414 38%
Change: McCain +17
Demographics: 38.1% Asian, 39.0% Hispanic, 19.6% White
Demographics 18+: 40.2% Asian, 35.1% Hispanic, 21.7% White
Old Demographics: 18% Asian, 62% Hispanic, 15% White
Communities of Interest: Monterey Park, El Monte, Glendora
Status: Safe Democratic

The commission will probably create a district where an Asian candidate can win in this part of LA County. The district could be extended into Asian neighborhoods in Diamond Bar but I doubt they will do that because it will create convoluted lines if they want to connect Asian areas in Monterey Park and Diamond Bar. The 32nd district loses heavily Hispanic Baldwin Park but picks up Asian areas near Arcadia. Although Asians are not the pluarity in this district, they compose the pluarity of elligble voters so Chu should survive a primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate. Chu's current district is 62% Hispanic and 18% Asian so a strong Hispanic primary challenger would have a strong base. The district becomes more Republican because the new Asian areas such as San Marino and Arcadia are not heavily Democratic. Obama's 21 point win here should be high enough to protect Chu and she should perform higher than Obama among Asians too.

California's 33rd District Karen Bass (D) Royal Blue
Obama 213,299 89% McCain 24,021 10%
Change: Obama +4
Demographics: 30.5% African American, 7.0% Asian, 44.5% Hispanic, 15.1% White
Demographics 18+: 31.5% African American, 8.1% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 17.4% White
Old Demographics: 30% African American, 12% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 20% White
Communities of Interest: Los Angeles, Culver City, Inglewood
Status: Safe Democratic

With the inclusion of Inglewood, this becomes the most Democratic district in California. Also, I had to eliminate one African American district in LA because it will be difficult for all three African Americans to hold their districts as the Hispanic population grows. Bass's district's African American population rises to 31%. While Hispanics are still a plurality here in the 18+ population, Bass should win the primaries because African Americans still have higher turnout here. If current population trends continue with many African Americans moving out to the exurbs, a Hispanic candidate may be competitive at the end of the decade. For 2012 though, Bass should be fine.

California's 34th District Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Limegreen
Obama 134,331 72%, McCain 47,779 26%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 5.2% Asian, 81.8% Hispanic, 10.0% White
Demographics 18+: 6.1% Asian, 78.4% Hispanic, 12.1% White
Old Demographics: 6% Asian, 77% Hispanic, 11% White
Communities of Interest: East Los Angeles, Downey, Norwalk
Status: Safe Democratic

Yes, I understand this district may be too narrow and too long so the commission may not think it is compact. A district like this is necessary though because if it were more compact around the East Los Angeles area, the Hispanic population would be considered too high and it would be considered packing under the VRA. Many of the Hispanic areas there are around 90% Hispanic. Other Hispanic majority districts would not have enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic representative if they cannot pick up heavily Hispanic neighborhoods such as East Los Angeles, Pico Rivera and Lynwood. Anyway, Allard's district is still 78% Hispanic even while picking up less Hispanic Whittier and Norwalk which makes the district a few points more Republican but still safe for Allard.

California's 35th District Maxine Waters (D) Darkorchid
Obama 174,015 84%, McCain 29,599 14%
Change: McCain +0
Demographics: 28.0% African American, 9.5% Asian, 55.2% Hispanic, 5.4% White
Demographics 18+: 29.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 50.8% Hispanic, 6.7% White
Old Demographics: 34% African American, 6% Asian, 47% Hispanic, 10% White
Communities of Interest: Gardena, Compton, Carson
Status: Safe Democratic

The 35th District is now a combination of the current 35th and 37th districts but much of the 37th District is in the new 46th District so Waters has a bit more territory here. Although her district loses her base of Inglewood and picks up Compton and Carson from the 37th District, Waters should win the next few elections. She can face tough elections in the near future though. The Hispanic population here is growing and if Waters' popularity decreases quickly due to her ethics problem, her unpopularity combined with a growing Hispanic population gives a Hispanic candidate an opening.

California's 36th District Vacant Orange
Obama 197,636 61%, McCain 117,566 37%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 17.3% Asian, 27.8% Hispanic, 47.2% White
Demographics 18+: 17.9% Asian, 24.5% Hispanic, 50.9% White
Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 48% White
Communities of Interest: Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Rancho Palos Verdes
Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Republican as it picks up Republican leaning Rancho Palos Verdes. This district had similar territory in the 1990s and was very competitive. The territory has trended Democratic very quickly with Kerry performing better than Gore here while Gore performed better than Kerry statewide. Obama's 61% of the vote is at his statewide average of 61%. The current congresswoman Jane Harman (D) will resign soon. The Democrats though have strong candidates running to including former LA city councilmember Janice Hahn (D) and popular Secretary of State Debra Bowen (D). They should keep this district in the Democratic column.

California's 37th District David Dreier (R) (formerly the 26th District) Dodger Blue
Obama 134,679 56%, McCain 100,675 42%
Change: Obama +10
Demographics: 5.7% African American, 11.1% Asian, 51.7% Hispanic, 29.2% White
Demographics 18+: 6.0% African American, 12.0% Asian, 46.8% Hispanic, 33.2% White
Old Demographics: 4% African American, 15% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 52% White
Communities of Interest: Covina, Pomona, Chino Hills
Status: Lean Democratic if Dreier runs, Likely Democratic if he does not

The 37th straddles the border between Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties. As for the party strength in this district, Obama may have won with 56% of the vote here but if the Republican candidate is extremely popular and can make inroads with Hispanics, he or she could win. David Dreier (R)'s district was eliminated on this map. He could run here because it contains part of his old district with Upland but he is not familiar with the mostly Democratic Covina or Pomona voters so a Democrat could win here with large margins from those two cities. As for Hispanic representation, the district is nearly 50% 18+ Hispanic now. They would not make up the majority of the votes but there may be enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic in the Democratic primary because many of the white voters in this district are Republican.

California's 38th District Grace Napolitano (D) Medium Aquamarine
Obama 144,232 66%, McCain 69,883 32%
Change: McCain +10
Demographics: 22.4% Asian, 63.8% Hispanic, 10.8% White
Demographics 18+: 24.5% Asian, 59.7% Hispanic, 12.7% White
Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 71% Hispanic, 14% White
Communities of Interest: Pico Rivera, Baldwin Park, Diamond Bar
Status: Safe Democratic

This district becomes more Republican by losing Norwalk and picking up Diamond Bar. Napolitano lives in Norwalk but she should run here since it contains most of her old district. Also, the district loses Hispanics but the 60% Hispanic 18+ population should protect Napolitano.

California's 39th District Linda Sanchez (D) Mocassin
Obama 126,071 72%, McCain 46,502 26%
Change: Obama +12
Demographics: 7.2% African American, 9.4% Asian, 71.4% Hispanic, 10.5% White
Demographics: 7.5% African American, 10.8% Asian, 67.6% Hispanic, 12.8% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 10% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Park., Lynwood, Lakewood
Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Democratic and Hispanic with the loss of swing areas such as La Mirada and the addition of heavily Hispanic Huntington Park and Bell Gardens. Sanchez should have no problems here.

Orange County

California's 40th District Ed Royce (R) Fireback
Obama 116,698 48%, McCain 122,690 50%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 18.2% Asian, 40.3% Hispanic, 36.8% White
Demographics 18+: 19.1% Asian, 35.5% Hispanic, 41.2% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 30% Hispanic, 49% White
Communities of Interest: La Mirada, Fullerton, Orange
Status: Likely Republican

Royce's district keeps most of its old territory but expands a bit. It picks up the swing area La Mirada in Los Angeles County as well as Whittier. It loses marginal Los Alamitos. These changes make the district a bit more Democratic. Royce is popular here though so he should win. If Royce retires at the end of the decade though, a Democrat should have a good shot here.

San Bernardino Area

California's 41st District Jerry Lewis (R) Lightsteelblue
Obama 104,162 42%, McCain 138,074 56%
Change: McCain +4
Demographics: 7.5% African American, 4.4% Asian, 34.1% Hispanic, 50.5% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 4.8% Asian, 29.4% Hispanic, 55.9% White
Old Demographics: 5% African American, 23% Hispanic, 64% White
Communities of Interest: Rancho Cucamonga, Redlands, Banning
Status: Safe Republican

The district grew so it will shed some territory. It lost most of rural San Bernardino County including  Needles. It also loses Republican leaning Hemet and San Jacinto. It does pick up Republican neighborhoods in Rancho Cucamonga though. Rancho Cucamonga is not next to the bulk of the district's population which is east of San Bernardino and Riverside. Rancho Cucamonga can be considered a community of interest though because it has similar demographics and voting habits with the rest of the district. Also, connecting Rancho Cucamonga to the rest of the district does not create convoluted lines.

California's 42nd District Gary Miller (R) Lawngreen
Obama 145,652 46%, McCain 167,287 52%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 21.3% Asian, 15.6% Hispanic, 57.7% White
Demographics 18+: 21.8% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White
Old Demographics: 16% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 54% White
Communities of Interest: Yorba Linda, Irvine, Lake Forest
Status: Safe Republican

Gary Miller's home is now in the heavily Hispanic 38th district but I believe he will run here since this district contains much of his old territory. The district is now completely in Orange County and it picks up Democratic leaning Irvine. These changes do not change the political composition of the district much though. Miller should be safe.


California's 43rd District Joe Baca (D) Magenta
Obama 105,761 65%, McCain 54,576 33%
Change: McCain +6
Demographics: 11.0% African American, 5.3% Asian, 61.2% Hispanic, 20.2% White
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 6.1% Asian, 56.1% Hispanic, 24.5% White
Old Demographics: 12% African American, 3% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 23% White
Communities of Interest: Fontana, Colton, San Bernardino
Status: Safe Democratic

The district becomes more Republican by losing Democratic areas in Ontario and Colton as well as picking up part of Republican leaning Redlands. The adult population of the district is 56% Hispanic and they make up a large portion of the Democratic primary voters so Baca should be safe in this 65% Obama district.

California's 44th District Vacant (R) Medium Violetred
Obama 100,306 61% McCain 59,648 37%
Change: N/A
Demographics: 9.0% African American, 5.6% Asian, 60.1% Hispanic, 22.8% White
Demographics 18+: 9.3% African American, 6.5% Asian, 54.8% Hispanic, 27.3% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Communities of Interest: Ontario, Riverside, Moreno Valley
Status: Likely Democratic

This is the new Hispanic majority district in the Inland Empire which contains Hispanic neighborhoods in Ontario, Colton, Riverside and Moreno Valley. Ken Calvert currently represents the 44th district on the current map and the 44th district is a swing district. I doubt he will run in a district that voted 61% for Obama so any strong Democrat who runs here should win the general election.

California's 45th District Ken Calvert (R) (formerly the 44th) Turquoise
Obama 107,459 51% McCain 101,375 48%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 6.7% African American, 8.0% Asian, 43.6% Hispanic, 38.6% White
Demographics 18+: 6.8% African American, 8.8% Asian, 38.4% Hispanic, 43.6% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: Corona, Riverside, San Jacinto
Status: Toss Up

Although this district is numbered the 45th which Mary Bono Mack (R) currently represents, she probably will not run here since this district does not contain most of her current territory. This district at first looks like a Republican lean because Obama overperformed usual Democratic percentages. Democrats have a shot here though because Ken Calvert (R) is a weak incumbent and won in 2008 only because of margins in Orange County. His district loses Orange County while picking up Democratic Perris and marginal San Jacinto. His district is also quickly trending Democratic. Also, Bill Hedrick (D) in 2008 received almost no support from national Democrats but lost by only 2 points against Calvert. If Hedrick runs in a good Democratic year and receives support from national Democrats, he should win.

California's 46th District Dana Rohrabacher (R) Tomato
Obama 155,425 58% McCain 106,910 40%
Change: Obama +20
Demographics: 8.1% African American, 18.3% Asian, 32.7% Hispanic, 37.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 18.9% Asian, 28.2% Hispanic, 42.4% White
Old Demographics: 1% African American, 15% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 62% White
Communities of Interest: Long Beach, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach
Status: Lean Democratic

The district becomes more Democratic with the addition of Democratic areas in Long Beach. The removal of Costa Mesa and most of Huntington Beach helps too. Rohrabacher is popular but even he should not win in a 58% Obama district. Also, the new Democratic voters from Long Beach are not familiar with him so he will not be able to win by taking away Democratic votes. An issue with this district is that western Long Beach may not be considered a community of interest with the rest of the district. It should work because it is in the same city limits as eastern Long Beach which is currently in the 46th District and should be a community of interest with the Orange County part of the district. Also, the addition of most of Long Beach makes the district compact and it formerly had a thin line going to Rancho Palos Verdes.

California's 47th District Loretta Sanchez (D) Thistle
Obama 86,950 59%, McCain 57,839 39%
Change: McCain +1
Demographics: 1.6% Asian, 65.7% Hispanic, 14.0% White
Demographics 18+: 19.7% Asian, 60.2% Hispanic, 17.3% White
Old Demographics: 14% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 17% White
Communities of Interest: Anaheim, Santa Ana, Garden Grove
Status: Safe Democratic

Sanchez's district does not change much because it is already a Hispanic majority district and it contains similar communities. She picks up more of Garden Grove which may not be the best idea because her 2010 challenger Van Tran (R) is popular there. She should be safe because she won by double digits in 2010, an extremely Republican year and if she were strong then, she is strong now.

California's 48th District John Campbell (R) SandyBrown
Obama 159,835 46%, McCain 179,461 52%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 10.8% Asian, 18.6% Hispanic, 66.5% White
Demographics 18+: 11.2% Asian, 15.9% Hispanic, 69.5% White
Old Demographics: 13% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 68% White
Communities of Interest: Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach
Status: Safe Republican

Campbell's district loses Irvine and becomes the coastal district. It picks up Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa. Although the district is narrow, it certainly picks up communities of interest by getting all the beach towns. The district becomes more Republican with the loss of Irvine but Campbell was pretty safe anyway. This district may be open to voting for a libertarian Democrat if they view Campbell as one of the big government Republicans but for now, this district remains Republican.

California's 49th District Mary Bono (R) (formerly the 45th District) IndianRed
Obama 112,830 45%, McCain 135,459 54%
Change: McCain +16
Demographics: 6.1% Asian, 32.0% Hispanic, 54.8% White
Demographics 18+: 6.2% Asian, 27.2% Hispanic, 60.3% White
Old Demographics: 6% African American, 38% Hispanic, 50% White
Communities of Interest: Lake Elsinore, Temecula, Palm Springs
Status: Safe Republican

Bono's old district contained Moreno Valley and voted for Obama by 5 points. Her district is now more Republican with the removal of Moreno Valley and heavily Hispanic Coachella. Her district picks up Republican Murrieta and Temecula though. Although Palm Springs leans Democratic, Murrieta and Temecula more than cancel out the Democratic votes there. Democrats probably would like to put Palm Springs in the 45th district so Steve Pougnet (D), the Palm Springs mayor can run for that seat but dividing the Palm Springs corridor between three districts would be violate communities of interest rules. Anyway, Pougnet does not have to live in the 45th district if he decides to run in it. The 45th district is close to Palm Springs so carpetbagging should not be a big issue.

San Diego Area

California's 50th District Brian Bilbray (R) Powder Blue
Obama 203,346 59%, McCain 136,596 39%
Change: Obama +16
Demographics: 18.4% Asian, 14.0% Hispanic, 59.9% White
Demographics 18+: 18.5% Asian, 12.4% Hispanic, 62.8% White
Old Demographics: 10% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 66% White
Communities of Interest: Del Mar, San Diego
Status: Lean Democratic

Bilbray has represented San Diego for a number of years and he is used to running in districts that lean Democratic. His old 50th District voted for Obama by a couple of points. He should lose in this district though because he picks up more of San Diego City including some white liberal areas from the 53rd. This increases the Obama percentage to 59% and that should be enough to beat him. This district also fits the guidelines for the commission by remaining compact and taking in similar neighborhoods. It is possible Susan Davis (D) from the 53rd will run here because her district's white population may be too small for her and the 50th district contains part of her old district. She ran against Bilbray in 2000 and it will be an interesting rematch. She should win though.

California's 51st District Bob Filner (D) Saddle Brown
Obama 114,954 59%, McCain 78,621 40%
Change: McCain +8
Demographics: 6.6% Asian, 67.2% Hispanic, 20.9% White
Demographics 18+: 7.2% Asian, 62.4% Hispanic, 25.0% White
Old Demographics: 9% African American, 12% Asian, 53% Hispanic, 21% White
Communities of Interest: Coachella, El Centro, Chula Vista
Status: Safe Democratic

Bob Filner is a popular representative but the commission will create a Hispanic majority district with parts of San Diego. He has handily beaten back primary challenges from Hispanics though in a 53% Hispanic district. He won with support from African Americans and Asians and he loses many of those voters to the 53rd district and the 51st district's Hispanic population rose to 67% under the new lines. He retains most of his old territory so he may survive. Nonetheless, his district becomes more Hispanic by picking up Coachella and Indio. I have also heard of proposals to connect Imperial County to an eastern San Diego County district. Those areas do not have much in common though but it is necessary to connect them so there is a district designed to elect a Hispanic representative in the San Diego area. The district becomes more Republican too though by losing National City and some Democratic neighborhoods in San Diego but remains safe for any Democrat. Filner may decide to run in the 53rd district which has a larger white population.

California's 52nd District Duncan Hunter Jr. (R) OliveDrub
Obama 126,471 42%, McCain 171,794 57%
Change: McCain +7
Demographics: 5.5% Asian, 23.5% Hispanic, 63.5% White
Demographics 18+: 5.7% Asian, 20.0% Hispanic, 67.8% White
Old Demographics: 5% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 73% White
Communities of Interest: Poway, San Diego, El Cajon
Status: Safe Republican

The district was already Republican but it becomes even more Republican. It loses most of San Diego City except the northeastern area and picks up Republican leaning Escondido. Hunter should have no problems here.

California's 53rd District Susan Davis (D) Gainsboro
Obama 132,477 69%, McCain 56,420 29%
Change: Obama +2
Demographics: 10.1% African American, 12.2% Asian, 46.6% Hispanic, 28.0% White
Demographics 18+: 10.1% African American, 13.0% Asian, 41.0% Hispanic, 33.2% White
Old Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 29% Hispanic, 51% White
Communities of Interest: National City, San Diego
Status: Safe Democratic

Davis's district becomes less white as it loses more northern parts of San Diego and picks up National City. These changes make the district more Democratic but less safe for Davis. She faces the possibility of a primary challenge from a minority candidate. She should survive because many of the voters in the new 53rd are from her old district and whites probably outnumber Hispanics in the Democratic primary. Also, Davis should get support from African Americans and Asians. Filner may give her a primary challenge here though. This may make her decide to run in the 50th district against Bilbray. It would be a rematch of the 2000 race where they challenged each other in a similar district.

Have any suggestions on the map? Do you have any maps you want to share? Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts.