Florida Fair Redistricting Part III: South Florida

This is the final of 3 posts analyzing my fair Florida redistricting proposal. My first post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-i-north.html and my 2nd post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-ii.html

South Florida

Florida's 19th Congressional District:  Frederica Wilson (D) Yellowgreen
Presidential Data: Obama 219,280 84.3%, McCain 40,719 15.7%
Old Percentage: Obama 87%, McCain 12%
Demographics: 52.9% African American, 31.3% Hispanic, 12.2% White
Demographics 18+: 50.5% African American, 32.4% Hispanic, 13.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The former 17th district retains most of its current territory, representing communities of interest by representing heavily African American communities in northern Miami Dade and southern Broward Counties. This district also stays west of Route 1. Although the district becomes a few points more Republican due to gaining a few heavily Cuban precincts, the 19th district is heavily Democratic and with the 84.3% Obama percentage, it is by far the most Democratic district in Florida.

Miami Area

Florida's 20th Congressional District: Illeana Ros Lehtinen (R) Pink
Presidential Data: Obama 131,823 58.0%, McCain 95,439 42.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 51%, McCain 49%
Demographics: 13.4% African American, 62.0% Hispanic, 22.0% White
Demographics 18+: 12.0% African American, 62.5% Hispanic, 23.0% White
Status: Lean Democratic if Lehtinen runs, Likely Democratic if not

This district at first appears Democratic because its 58% Obama percentage is not far from the 61% Obama in the 11th district which I listed as Safe Democratic. Although the 20th district is certainly trending Democratic as Cubans become less staunchly Republican and non Cuban Hispanics whom lean Democratic move into the Miami area, the 20th district may stay in Republican hands because Ros Lehinten is a popular and moderate incumbent. A strong Democratic candidate still should though as I increased the Obama percentage in the district from 51% to 58%. I removed the Republican leaning areas around Coral Gables while adding some heavily Democratic areas around Cutler Bay and Homestead. Ros Lehtinen is unfamiliar to the voters in those areas and although she is entrenched in parts of her current district, the new district with its 58% Obama percentage should be enough to unseat her or encourage her to primary a weak incumbent such as David Riveria (R) in the 27th district. As for communities of interest, the 20th district represents similar communities by representing all of Miami Dade's coastal areas south of Miami Beach.

Broward County


Florida's 21st Congressional District: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) vs. Allen West (R) Maroon
Presidential Data: Obama 198,837 67.3%, McCain 96,556 32.7%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 24.8% African American, 23.8% Hispanic, 45.4% White
Demographics 18+: 22.7% African American, 22.8% Hispanic, 48.9% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The new 21st district is a combination of the current 19th, 20th and 23rd districts. Schultz lives here but most of her current district is in the new 25th so she may move and run there. The 21st district contains most of inland Broward County with Sunrise and Coral Springs but also contains Pompono Beach. Allen West's home of Plantation is in the 21st district but West is a far right teabagger who would not fare well in a 67% Obama district like this one.

Palm Beach County

Florida's 22nd Congressional District: Tom Rooney (R) Sienna
Presidential Data: Obama 170,214 60.6%, McCain 110,618 39.4%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 18.8% African American, 24.1% Hispanic, 52.8% White
Demographics 18+: 16.7% African American, 22.1% Hispanic, 57.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Tom Rooney (R) who represents the current 16th district which spans from Port Charlotte to a few Palm Beach suburbs lives in Tequesta which is in the district. Besides Teqeusta and Wellington, the new 22nd and current 16th districts share no areas so Rooney will probably not run in the 22nd district and run in the new 26th instead which contains large portions of his current district. Also, the 61% Obama percentage in the 22nd district will fend off any strong Republican challengers. As for Democrats, West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel (D) who is currently challenging Allen West (R) in the current 22nd district may decide  to run here.

Florida's 23rd Congressional District (formerly the 21st Congressional District:) Mario Diaz-Balart (R) Aquamarine
Presidential Data: Obama 120,623, 51.7%, McCain 112,877 48.3%
Old Percentage: Obama 49%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 7.6% African American, 73.4% Hispanic, 15.2% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 75.1% Hispanic, 14.3% White
Status: Toss Up

Diaz-Balart's district becomes a point more Democratic as it loses some heavily Cuban areas near Westchester and gains a larger portion of Democratic leaning Pembroke Pines. Although Obama won the district by 3 points, the district is more Republican than the numbers suggest because young Cubans swung heavily toward Obama in 2008. Diaz-Balart may be vulnerable here though because he was elected here in 2010 so voters are not familiar to him. Also, if Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez (D) runs, he will have a strong chance to win because he can keep Republican margins low in Hialeah so a Democratic lead in Broward County will offset the Republican precincts in Miami Dade County.

Florida's 24th Congressional District: (formerly the 19th district) Ted Deutch (D) Indigo
Presidential Data: Obama 207,531 61.9%, McCain 127,567 38.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 65%, McCain 34%
Demographics: 13.2% African American, 13.0% Hispanic, 69.3% White
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 11.7% Hispanic, 73.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 24th district (formerly the 19th district)  becomes more compact as it represents southern Palm Beach County and northern Broward County. These changes make the 24th district a few points more Republican as it loses all of West Palm Beach and gains some affluent and Republican leaning precincts in Delray Beach, Deerfield Beach and Boca Raton. Those Republican areas were formerly in the 22nd District but I eliminated the district because it did not combine communities of interest. It represents communities from Jupiter in northern Palm Beach County to Davie in southern Broward County. Instead, my map has districts that represent a certain area such as having the 24th district represent southern Palm Beach and northern Broward Counties. Anyway, the changes in this district should not endanger Deutch because Obama won 62% here.

Florida's 25th Congressional District: (formerly the 20th district) Vacant (Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) ?)
Presidential Data: Obama 190,438 66.8%, McCain 94,592 33.2%
Old Percentage: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Demographics: 20.9% African American, 27.2% Hispanic, 48.0% White
Demographics 18+: 18.5% African American, 27.1% Hispanic, 50.7% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Although the 20th district's representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) does not live in this district, she may run here because the 25th district contains most of her current district. The only changes are that the 25th district goes less inland by losing Sunrise and Plantation while gaining all of Fort Lauderdale, including some heavily Democratic and African American precincts there. These changes boost the Democratic performance to 67% in this already safely Democratic district.

Florida's 26th Congressional District
Florida's 26th Congressional District Vacant (Tom Rooney (R) ?) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 159,098 50.1%, McCain 158,771 49.9%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 15.1% African American, 14.9% Hispanic, 66.7% White
Demographics 18+: 13.5% African American, 12.6% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Status: Lean Republican

This district represents the Florida coast between Melbourne and Palm Beach,  representing Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin Counties. It also contains portions of Brevard and Palm Beach Counties. Tom Rooney may run here although I moved his home, Tequesta in Palm Beach County out of the district. Also,  added Democratic neighborhoods in St. Lucie County and heavily Democratic Belle Glades in Palm Beach County. Although these changes make the district more Democratic, the district still has a slight Republican lean. In a strong Democratic year though, this district should be Democratic enough to flip Democratic like the current Florida 8th and 24th congressional districts did in 2008. They voted 51% and 48% for Obama respectively, close to the 50% Obama in the new 26th district.

Florida's 27th Congressional District David Riveria (R) Springgreen
Presidential Data: Obama 118,202 43.6%, McCain 152,818 56.4%
Old Percentage: Obama 49%, McCain 50%
Demographics: (formerly the 25th) 77.8% Hispanic, 16.3% White
Demographics 18+: 78.4% Hispanic, 15.6% White
Status: Safe Republican

The former 25th congressional district becomes more Republican despite losing all of heavily Republican Collier County. The reason is that in order to keep communities together, the 27th district stays on the west side of Highway 1 which has more Republican precincts than Highway 1's eastern side. Also, the 27th district loses all of Democratic Homestead while gaining some heavily Republican precincts in western Miami. These changes push the Republican percentage to 56% McCain, making this district the most Republican district in Miami County and the Gold Coast.

Overall, my Florida map undid many of the gerrymandered districts the current Florida map has. I created two districts centered around Orlando instead of having a district share Orlando and Jacksonville while I created a Jacksonville centered district. Also, the map dismantled the 23rd Congressional District which combined Palm Beach neighborhoods with Miramar on the Miami Dade County border. Although the 23rd district was a VRA district, I had to dismantle it and combine it into the 21st, 22nd, 24th and 25th districts because the 23rd district violated communities of interest and I could not create a majority African American district stretching from Fort Lauderdale to West Palm Beach. As for the partisanship of the new districts, there are 7 Safe Democratic seats, 3 Likely Democratic seats, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 2 Toss Up seats, 3 Lean Republican seats, 1 Likely Republican and 10 Safe Republican seats. Although Republicans still have an edge with 14 Republican seats compared to 11 Democratic ones and 2 Toss Ups, Florida's Democratic areas are in a few heavily Democratic areas while Florida's Republican areas are more spread out so it is easier to draw Republican districts. Also, 3 of Florida's Republican districts are lean Republican so in a Democratic year, Democrats could control as many as 16 of Florida's congressional districts while in 2008, the Democrats controlled only ten out of Florida's 25 districts. Anyway, Florida's Republican legislature may try to combine communities of interest while not creating new opportunities for Democrats but this map creates a real fair map for Florida where both parties are at a roughly equal position and will fairly represent Florida's constituents.

Florida Fair Redistricting Part II: Central Florida

This is the 2nd post out of 3 posts analyzing fair redistricting in Florida. Here is my 1st post: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-i-north.html

Tampa Area

Florida's 10th Congressional District Bill Young (R) Deepink
Presidential Data: Obama 188,941 56.4%, McCain 146,119 43.6%
Old Percentage: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Demographics: 12.3% African American, 8.3% Hispanic, 74.0% White
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 7.1% Hispanic, 77.8% White
Status: Likely Republican if Bill Young runs, Likely Democratic if not

The 10th district becomes more Democratic as it adds Democratic parts of St. Petersburg that were previously in the 11th district. The current 11th district jumped across Tampa Bay to grab Democratic parts of St. Petersburg but the 10th now combines communities of interest by representing all of Pinellas County except for the northern part. As for the district's representative, Bill Young (R) who is 80 years old has represented the area since 1971 and has won reelection easily in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008. The addition of Democratic areas should not be enough to unseat him but they may prompt him to retire. If he retires, this seat should be competitive but the district's 56% Obama percentage should give the Democrats an advantage.

Florida's 11th Congressional District Kathy Castor (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 169,053 61.2%, McCain 107,391 38.8%
Old Percentage: Obama 66%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 20.5% African American, 28.2% Hispanic, 45.8% White
Demographics 18+: 18.6% African American, 26.6% Hispanic, 49.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 11th district becomes more compact as it loses the string connecting it to Democratic neighborhoods in Bradenton and St. Petersburg. The 11th district now contains Tampa Bay and its close in suburbs. These changes make the 11th district more Republican but Hillsborough County's Democratic trend and Obama's 61% in the district should keep Castor safe from a Republican challenge.

I-4 Corridor

Florida's 12th Congressional District Dennis Ross (R) Cornflower Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 129,100 45.5%, McCain 154,360 54.5%
Old Percentage: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Demographics: 13.1% African American, 18.3% Hispanic, 65.0% White
Demographics 18+: 12.0% African American, 15.4% Hispanic, 69.5% White
Status: Likely Republican

Ross receives a safer district under this plan. He gains all of Republican leaning Polk County while losing marginal Tampa suburbs including Brandon and Riverview. Although many of the districts on this plan become more favorable to Democrats, this district becomes safer for Republicans. If the Hispanic growth continues in Polk County though, Democrats may have a shot here soon.

Florida's 13th Congressional District Vern Buchanan (R) Darksalmon
Presidential Data: Obama 167,628 48.2%, McCain 179,797 51.8%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 6.6% African American, 12.3% Hispanic, 78.1% White
Demographics 18+: 5.5% African American, 9.8% Hispanic, 82.2% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the 13th district becomes a tad more Democratic with the loss of Republican leaning De Soto and Hardee Counties with the addition of Democratic areas in Bradenton, Buchanan should win here. He is a popular incumbent with a large warchest, winning in the Democratic wave years of 2006 and 2008. He also performed strongly in 2010, winning with 69% of the vote.

Florida's 14th Congressional District  Vacant Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 155,609 58.5%, McCain 110,466 41.5%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 40.0% Hispanic, 43.5% White
Demographics 18+: 8.4% African American, 37.6% Hispanic, 46.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic

Under the current lines, the Orlando area is unfairly represented because there is no district completely within its metropolitan area. Districts such as the 3rd and 8th represent Orlando but also represent other portions of the state such as Jacksonville and Ocala. The 14th district though completely represents the Orlando metropolitan area, containing suburban Osceola County and part of Orange County. The district will probably elect a white representative but a Hispanic candidate could win soon because of the district's fast growing Hispanic population. The district should also elect a Democrat because of the 58.5% Obama percentage.

Florida's 15th Congressional District  Vacant Dark Orange
Presidential Data: Obama 173,124 61.1%, McCain 110,177 38.9%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 26.6% African American, 21.4% Hispanic, 45.5% White
Demographics 18+: 24.2% African American, 20.0% Hispanic, 49.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The orange colored district is located entirely within Orange County, representing all of Orlando and many of its close in suburbs. By representing the center of the Orlando metropolitan area, the district is strongly Democratic and is trending more Democratic as the Hispanic population continues to grow.

Florida's 16th Congressional District Bill Posey (R) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 163,639 45.0%, McCain 200,245 55.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 48%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 8.2% African American, 10.3% Hispanic, 76.6% White
Demographics 18+: 7.5% African American, 9.1% Hispanic, 79.2% White
Status: Safe Republican

Posey's district becomes safer for him as it loses all of Democratic leaning Osceola and Orange Counties. The district also represents more communities of interest as it combines almost all of Brevard County in one district instead of splitting in half between the 15th and 24th districts. Posey's district also gains part of Republican leaning Seminole County. Posey was safe in a 51% McCain district so he should have no problems winning in a 55% McCain one.

Florida West Coast

Florida's 17th Congressional District Connie Mack IV (R) DarkSlateBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 127,295 40.9%, McCain 183,918 59.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 42%, McCain 57%
Demographics: 6.1% African American, 21.5% Hispanic, 69.7% White
Demographics 18+: 5.0% African American, 17.9% Hispanic, 74.9% White
Status: Safe Republican

Mack's district was already the most Republican district south of the I-4 corridor at 57% McCain but with the district's changes, it becomes even more Republican at 59% McCain. Mack's district loses all of Charlotte County as well as some Democratic neighborhoods in Fort Myers. The 17th district also gains all of heavily Republican and fast growing Collier County. These changes shift Mack's district further south along Florida's west coast because due to population growth, Florida's west coast is gaining a new district.

Florida's 18th Congressional District Vacant (Tom Rooney (R) ?) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 131,583 45.8%, McCain 155,823 54.2%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 8.7% African American, 18.6% Hispanic, 69.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.8% African American, 15.6% Hispanic, 74.3% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district is a combination of the current 13th, 14th and 16th districts. The 18th district combines more inland communities along the Florida west coast such as Fort Myers and Port Charlotte while representing some rural counties near Lake Okeechobee. Although Rooney does not live in the district, he may decide to run here because the 18th district contains parts of his old district such as Port Charlotte and the rural counties near Lake Okeechobee. Although the 18th district is less Republican than the neighboring 17th district, McCain's 54% of the vote in the 18th district should be enough to keep it safely Republican.

Florida Fair Redistricting Part I: North Florida

Florida recently passed a fair redistricting inititative and although the republicans in the Florida state legislature control the mapping process, they cannot gerrymander the districts the way they did in 2001. In 2001, the Florida Republicans drew a map aiming to elect 18 Republicans and seven Democrats to Florida's congressional districts, although the 2000 election demonstrated Florida is an evenly divided state. The Republicans also gerrymandered the state legislature so the Democrats could not win control of it and undo the damage the Republicans created for the Democrats. The Republicans were successful by maintaining control of the legislature. Their congressional gerrymander was successful too because even in 2008 when the Democrats gained the most seats in the House since 1992, the Republicans still controlled five more Florida seats than the Democrats did. Democrats undid Republican gerrymanders in Pennsylvania and Ohio but not Florida. In 2010, Republicans won not only the legislature but the Governorship too but Florida's voters passed an amendment that prevented the legislature from gerrymandering for political purposes. The legislature also had to incorporate communities of interest when they redistricted. For example, a district could not contain Orlando and Jacksonville. Republicans may try to draw districts to their advantage while incorporating communities of interest but this map I drew is a real fair map for Florida. This post examines the first 9 districts in Florida, the next post will examine the next 9 districts and the last post will examine the last 9.
Florida's current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=FL

North Florida

Florida's 1st Congressional District: Jeff Miller (R) Blue
Obama 115,041 32.4%, McCain 240,363 67.6%
Old Percentage: McCain 67%, Obama 32%
Demographics: 13.6% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 75.1% White
Demographics 18+: 12.5% African American, 4.5% Hispanic, 77.6% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the fair redistricting initiative will change the borders of many districts, this one retains similar lines. The 1st loses Washington County to keep population deviation equal but besides this change, the 1st remains the same to its current form. It is still safe for Miller and the 2nd most Republican district in Florida on my map.

Florida's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Southerland (R) Green
Obama 162,690 47.6%, McCain 178,961 52.4%
Old Percentage: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics: 24.3% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 66.2% White
Demographics 18+: 23.3% African American, 4.8% Hispanic, 68.2% White
Status: Lean Republican

Although McCain won this district, many of these counties such as Liberty and Franklin County vote Democratic at a local level. Allen Boyd (D) represented this district until 2010 and Bill McBride (D) carried it strongly, despite losing by 13 points statewide to Jeb Bush (R). This map helps strengthen the Democrats' chances here by adding part of traditionally Democratic Madison County and removing more conservative counties such as Dixie, Suwanee and Lafayette. Boyd is currently working with Twenty First Century Group, a lobbying firm so he may want to stay with his new job. State Senator Alfred Lawson Jr. though may run under these more favorable lines.

Florida's 3rd Congressional District: Corrine Brown (D) Purple
Obama 172,246 53.0%, McCain 152,527 47.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 73%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 33.9% African American, 4.2% Asian, 7.7% Hispanic, 51.5% White
Demographics 18+: 31.3% African American, 4.3% Asian, 7.0% Hispanic, 55.5% White
Status: Lean Democratic

Brown's current district combines African American neighborhoods in Jacksonville, Gainesville and Orlando. Although the Voting Rights Act requires that African American majority districts should be drawn, it did not ask for drawing extremely convoluted districts that combine communities with no common interests. Districts drawn that way are considered "racial gerrymanders" and are unconstitutional. If the 3rd district is considered a racial gerrymander, it will be dismantled. The 3rd district is now centered around the Jacksonville area, making it more Republican but Obama won the district by six points. This creates an opportunity for Republicans but Brown should probably win.

Florida's 4th Congressional District: Ander Crenshaw (R) Red
Obama 110,813 31.3%, McCain 243,349 68.7%
Old Percentage: Obama 37%, McCain 62%
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 5.9% Hispanic, 80.6% White
Demographics 18+: 8.3% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 82.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

Crenshaw already had a safe district that voted 62% for McCain but the new lines give a 69% McCain district, the most Republican district in Florida under this map. The 4th district loses eastern Jacksonville to the 3rd district and loses the string out to Tallahassee to the 2nd and 6th district. The 4th district now represents the fast growing and heavily Republican Jacksonville suburbs in Clay, Nassau and St. Johns Counties as well as the conservative rural counties of Bradford, Union and Columbia. By combining the communities of interest in the Jacksonville suburbs, the 4th district becomes more compact and more Republican.

Florida's 5th Congressional District Rich Nugent (R) Yellow
Obama 156,627 46.4%, McCain 180,722 53.6%
Old Percentage: Obama 43%, McCain 56%
Demographics: 4.1% African American, 10.2% Hispanic, 82.2% White
Demographics 18+: 3.6% African American, 8.6% Hispanic, 84.9% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 5th district was one of the fastest growing districts in Florida so it becomes more compact. It loses the conservative areas near the Villages and retains the fast growing coastal counties of Citrus, Hernando and Pasco. These counties are more swingy than the Villages area (Pasco and Hernando Counties voted for Gore.) McCain won all the counties in this district though so Nugent should not have difficulties winning reelection.

Florida's 6th Congressional District Cliff Stearns (R) Teal
Obama 155,210 47.9%, McCain 169,148 52.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 42%, McCain 57%
Demographics: 17.2% African American, 9.1% Hispanic, 69.1% White
Demographics 18+: 15.7% African American, 8.1% Hispanic, 72.0% White
Status: Lean Republican

The current 6th district combines Jacksonville suburbs with Gainesville and the Villages Area. I altered the 6th district so it would contain north central rural Florida and its small cities including Gainesville and Ocala. I removed all the Jacksonville suburbs and the Villages Area while adding more of Marion County (Ocala) and some rural counties such as Hamilton and Suwanee which the 2nd and 4th districts formerly represented. I also moved all of Gainesville into the 6th district because it was unfairly split between the 6th and the 3rd, undermining its power to unite and elect a representative. Stearns does not live in the new 6th district, he lives in the new 4th district but I expect him to run here because the 6th district contains most of his old territory. The district voted only 52% for McCain though and Stearns is not familiar with most of the rural voters. Therefore, a blue dog Democrat can win in 2012 by winning over rural voters and benefiting from Gainesville's high turnout.

Florida's 7th Congressional District: John Mica (R) Gray
Obama 178,903 53.0%, McCain 158,960 47.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics: 11.7% African American, 11.7% Hispanic, 72.6% White
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 10.0% Hispanic, 76.0% White
Status: Toss Up

Volusia County has a stronger voice now that it is united in the 7th district except for one precinct instead of being split between the 7th, 24th and 3rd districts. The 7th district also becomes more compact as it loses St. Johns County (Jacksonville suburbs) and gains all of Volusia County. The 7th district also loses most of Seminole County but retains Sanford which is a similar community with Deltona in Volusia County. With the loss of conservative St. Johns County and the addition of most of Democratic leaning Volusia County, the 7th district becomes more Democratic. Mica is a popular representative though so it will be difficult to unseat him. In a good Democratic year though, the Democrats should have a shot to unseat Mica.

Florida's 8th Congressional District: Daniel Webster (R) SlateBlue
Obama 143,874 41.5%, McCain 202,758 58.5%
Old Percentage: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 11.2% Hispanic, 76.2% White
Demographics 18+: 7.8% African American, 9.4% Hispanic, 79.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

Currently, the 8th district combines Ocala, Orlando and the retirement communities between them. I altered the lines of the 8th district though so it contained all of Lake and Sumter Counties which contain large retirement communities. For population purposes, I added a small part of Seminole County and kept the 8th district to the left of I-4 as much as possible. Anyway, this district becomes extremely safe for Webster because it voted 59% for McCain.

Tampa Area

Florida's 9th Congressional District: Gus Bilkaris (R) Cyan
Obama 157,295 47.7%, McCain 172,265 52.3%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 7.1% African American, 14.8% Hispanic, 72.3% White

Demographics 18+: 6.5% African American, 12.8% Hispanic, 75.7% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 9th district undergoes minor changes as it combines the community of interest of suburban areas north and east of Tampa Bay. Although the district voted for McCain by a small margin, the district is more Republican on a local level so Bilkaris should have no trouble winning reelection. The district may become more Democratic though as Hispanics and African Americans move into parts of the 9th district such as Brandon. In 2012 though, Bilkaris should have no difficulties.

Maryland Redistricting 8-0 Democratic

I previously drew a Maryland redistricting map http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2010/12/maryland-redistricting-7-1-d.html with partisan data but this new map is designed to elect an 8-0 Democratic delegation. The last map was designed for a 7-1 Democratic delegation. I previously thought that an 8-0 Democratic map was too risky because it may endanger Democratic incumbents such as Dutch Ruppersberger (D) because his district would add Republican areas to open other districts to Democratic challengers. Currently, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D) and many other Maryland Democrats are pushing for a 7-1 Delegation by either forcing Rep. Andy Harris (R) or Roscoe Bartlett (R) into a Democratic district. I drew this 8-0 Democratic map to demonstrate that Democrats can draw an 8-0 Democratic map in Maryland while protecting their incumbents. The Democrats need to draw an 8-0 map in Maryland because it is one of the few states where Democrats hold the trifecta. Republicans are drawing extremely grotesque gerrymanders in states such as North Carolina, severely under representing the Democratic voters so the Democrats need to counterbalance that with maps in states such as Maryland. The 8-0 map I drew also follows the guidelines of the VRA so two districts will have African American majorities while making sure that no district voted less than 55% Obama. To calculate the district's Democratic percentage though, I am also using the statewide average of all statewide races from 2006 to 2008. Also, the Demographics 18+ means the demographics for voters 18 and older. Anyway, here are the maps:


Maryland's current congressional maps: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd112_md.pdf

Maryland

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris? (R) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 170,838 55.2%, McCain 134,240 43.4%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,832 56.6%, Rep 111,834 43.4%
Demographics: 5.4% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 62.2% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 26.7% African American, 64.9% White
Old Presidential Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%
Status: Lean Democratic

In 2010, Andy Harris won in the 1st district by 13 points against Frank Kratovli (D) but underperformed McCain's 18 point win in the district. Harris does not even live in the new 1st district, he lives in Cockeysville, a Baltimore suburb in Baltimore County. He will probably run here though because this 1st district contains more than half of his current district. The new 1st district though is different from his current district. Instead of representing conservative Baltimore suburban communities, the district crosses the bridge and represents Annapolis and eastern Prince Georges County. These changes increase the African American population from 11% to 27% and the Obama percentage from 40% to 55%. If Kratovli ran in 2012, he would probably win because of high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County and ticket splitting for Kratovli in the Eastern Shore. Even in a midterm year, Kratovli should win because Prince Georges County is trending Democratic extremely quickly. Governor Martin O’Malley won 56% statewide in his reelection campaign but won 88% in Prince Georges County, just behind Obama’s 89% despite underperforming Obama more in the rest of the state. One possibility is that a Prince Georges County candidate would primary him but because 61% of the district's Obama vote was cast outside of the county, Kratovli should win a primary.

Baltimore Area
Maryland's 2nd Congressional District Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 163,753 57.0%, McCain 117,575 40.9%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 146,162 62.7%, Rep 86,796 37.3%
Demographics: 5.2% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 25.7% African American, 62.3% White
Demographics 18+: 4.6% Hispanic, 4.2% Asian, 23.5% African American, 65.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 2nd district currently has convoluted lines but they become less convoluted on this map. The 2nd district becomes more centered around Baltimore County as it loses most of its Anne Arundel County portion and gains more of Baltimore County by gaining Pikesville, Perry Hill and Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses Randallstown, a heavily Democratic area so the Obama percentage drops from 60% to 57%. 57% should be enough to protect Ruppersberger who won reelection easily in 2010, a very strong Republican year. Also, the district's average is 62.7% Dem, close to the statewide average of 62.9% Dem. This area also has a reputation for voting strongly Democratic in local races such as House races. Also, the new district has a larger portion of heavily Democratic Baltimore City than the current district does. Ruppersberger should not have much trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 179,121 60.4%, McCain 111,585 37.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 150,898 62.7%, Rep 89,590 37.3%
Demographics: 6.0% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 25.9% African American, 57.6% White
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.4% Asian, 24.2% African American, 61.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd district becomes more centered around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties as it loses Pikesville and Randallstown in Baltimore County. It gains more of Columbia and even a few precincts in Montgomery County. These changes boost the Obama percentage up to 60% which should keep Sarbanes safe from a Republican challenge. One issue though is that Sarbanes lives in Towson in Baltimore County and the majority of the district's population is not in Baltimore County so a primary challenge is possible. Sarbanes should win though because he has won primary challenges easily since 2006 when he won the seat. Also, he retains a large portion of Anne Arundel which was his best county in the competitive 2006 primary. In that primary, Sarbanes did not win Baltimore County so losing part of it may actually help him in the primary.

Washington Suburbs

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 236,034 77.3%, McCain 66,083 21.6%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 178,705 75.1%, Rep 59,312 24.9%
Demographics: 5.7% Asian, 13.0% Hispanic, 50.4% African American, 28.5% White
Demographics 18+: 5.8% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic, 50.3% African American, 30.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district stays strongly Democratic but becomes more Republican as it loses part of central Prince Georges County and most of its Montgomery County portion. The 4th district does gain part of southwest Prince Georges County around Fort Washington, a few precincts in Democratic leaning Charles County, swing parts of Howard County and some conservative precincts in Carroll County. I added the Howard and Carroll County precincts to this district in order to protect the 3rd, 7th and 8th districts from becoming susceptible to a serious Republican challenge. This district also remains majority African American so it follows the VRA and the 28% white percentage should not be enough for a primary challenge against Edwards. The 4th district also gains more precincts around her home, Fort Washington.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 194,351 58.6%, McCain 132,523 40.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 162,906 60.9%, Rep 104,727 39.1%
Demographics: 7.8% Hispanic, 27.9% African American, 57.8% White
Demographics 18+: 6.9% Hispanic, 27.3% African American, 60.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district becomes more Republican as it gains the Severna Park area formerly in the 1st district. The 5th district also loses part of the heavily Democratic College Park and Fort Washington areas but gains heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Forestville. A string of heavily Democratic precincts in Prince Georges County connects the northern and southern part of the districts. The loss of eastern Prince Georges County to make the 1st district more Democratic brings the Obama percentage in the district down to 58.6%. Hoyer should have no worries though because he is entrenched with the Republican voters in St. Mary's and Calvert Counties and the district is trending Democratic with Charles County having African Americans move in from Prince Georges County.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 181,492 60.6%, McCain 113,197 37.8%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 156,046 62.0%, Rep 95,700 38.0%
Demographics: 7.4% Asian, 11.7% Hispanic, 11.5% African American, 66.5% White
Demographics 18+: 7.5 Asian, 10.7% Hispanic, 11.6% African American, 68.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 6th district (formerly numbered the 8th) becomes more Republican as Montgomery County's portion of the district is reduced to 59% and the other 41% is Republican counties in western Maryland such as Washington and Alleghany. The 8th district retains heavily Democratic areas in Montgomery County though including Silver Spring, Bethesda and Wheaton. Although the Obama percentage in this district drops to 60.6%, Van Hollen should have no trouble winning in this district due to its Democratic percentage and his fundraising ability. Also, the district is trending Democratic as Democrats continue to move into Montgomery County. Connie Morella (R) who represented part of Montgomery County in the House until 2002 is now 80 years old so she will probably not run here.

Maryland’s 7th Congressional District Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 214,229 67.2%, McCain 99,716 31.3%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 166,639 65.3%, Rep 88,700 34.7%
Demographics: 50.8% African American, 41.8% White
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.4% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of Howard County and gains conservative Baltimore exurbs in Carroll, Baltimore and Harford Counties. Although these areas are heavily Republican, the 7th district retains heavily Democratic precincts in Baltimore City and west Baltimore County, easily offsetting the Republican votes. The district also retains its VRA protection with a majority African American 18+ population. Cummings should have no trouble winning reelection here.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District (formerly numbered the 6th) Roscoe Bartlett (R)Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 181,059 59.4%, McCain 118,965 39.0%
Average 2006-2008: Dem 145,341 59.0%, Rep 101,087 41.0%
Demographics: 11.4% Asian, 13.2% Hispanic, 12.1% African American, 60.3% White
Demographics18+: 11.5% Asian, 12.0% Hispanic,11.4% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Likely Democratic if Bartlett runs, Safe Democratic if Bartlett does not run

Great grandfather and 85 year old Bartlett may decide to retire now that his district’s McCain percentage dropped from 58% to 39%. Although Bartlett is entrenched in his district, he is unfamiliar with the voters in Montgomery County which has a fast growing minority population. The district’s new lines may convince Bartlett to retire. A Democrat should win this district by winning high margins in Montgomery County. They should offset Republican margins in Carroll County and Democratic trending Frederick County.

Analysis of California's Proposed Congressional Maps: Part II

This is the 2nd post out of three posts analyzing California's new congressional redistricting maps.This post covers districts 18-35. The 1st post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/analysis-of-californias-proposed.html

For district maps, click here: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-redistricting-map,0,6145644.htmlstory
For demographics and partisan data, click here: http://redistrictingpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/CRC-First-Draft-Political-Data.pdf


California's 18th District Vacant (Dennis Cardoza (D) ? vs. Jeff Denham (R)?) Tracy/Manteca/Stanislaus County
Brown 44%, Whitman 49%
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Demographics 4% African American, 6% Asian, 40% Hispanic
Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

The 18th district used to contain Democratic neighborhoods in Stanislaus County but gains all of Stanislaus County now, including the Republican towns of Oakdale. The 18th district also loses Stockton and all territory south of Stanislaus County. In San Joaquin County, the 18th district represents Democratic leaning Tracy and marginal Manteca. Despite Obama's win, Stanislaus County leans Republican but is trending Democratic due to its growing Hispanic population. The combination of these areas creates a slightly Republican leaning district but Cardoza has a strong shot here because he is a strong incumbent and the district is trending Democratic. If a strong Republican candidate such as Denham runs here though, Cardoza will have a very difficult race. Denham is a very strong candidate who formerly held a State Senate district that voted 59% for Obama before becoming the 19th district's representative.

California's 19th District Dennis Cardoza (D) vs. Jeff Denham (R)? vs. Jim Costa (D)? Merced/Madera/Fresno
Brown 50%, Whitman 42%
Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Demographics: 6% African American, 9% Asian, 58% Hispanic
Status: Likely Democratic

This district does not share much territory with the current 19th district which the commission divided between the new 18th, 21st and 4th districts. Although Denham represented the old 19th district, he lived in Atwater which the old 18th district represented. Due to the 58% Obama number in this district, Denham will probably not run here and run in the 18th instead. Cardoza may run here if Denham runs in the 18th so Cardoza does not face an uphill battle. Cardoza's current district and this one share Merced and Madera Counties. Cardoza may face a primary challenge from Rep. Jim Costa (D) who lives in Fresno and lives in the new 19th district. In 2010, Costa barely won reelection in the 20th district which contained Republican areas such as Kings County. He may want a safer district that does not contain Kings County. To avoid a primary challenge from Cardoza though, Costa may run in the 71% Hispanic 20th district. Although the district represents Hispanic areas, splitting Fresno may not be the best idea for communities of interest. Still, respecting the Voting Rights Act which mandates that districts designed to elect minority candidates should be drawn is more important than respecting communities of interest. Drawing a district containing all of Fresno and its suburbs would most likely not have enough Hispanics to elect a Hispanic candidate but this district that contains Merced County and Hispanic parts of Fresno does.

California's 20th District Vacant (Jim Costa (D)?) western Fresno County/Kings County/Bakersfield
Brown 48%, Whitman 44%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Demographics: 5% African American, 4% Asian, 71% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic

The new 20th district loses its population base in Fresno and gains some Hispanic parts of Tulare County as well as more territory in Kern County. Although the district's population is 71% Hispanic, Jerry Brown only won the district by four points. The reason is that the Hispanics in this district tend to have lower turnout rates and vote less Democratic than Hispanics in nearby districts such as the new 19th. As for the 20th district's representative, Costa may run here if he wants to avoid a primary challenge from Cardoza but Costa's close win in 2010 may deter him from running in a district that contains heavily Republican Kings County. If Costa chooses to run in the 19th, possible candidates include former State Senator Dean Florez (D) and State Senator Michael Rubio (D) from Bakersfield. On the Republican side, State Assembly member David Valadao (R) may consider running. He is a strong candidate because he is Hispanic in this heavily Hispanic district and currently represents a heavily Hispanic assembly district.

California's 21st District Devin Nunes (R) Clovis/Visalia
Brown 35%, Whitman 59%
Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 45% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican

The 21st district loses Porterville and its territory in the Sierras but besides these changes, the lines remain similar. Nunes still represents a strongly Republican district combining Republican parts of Fresno and Tulare Counties. This district also represents communities of interest by combining small cities and suburbs such as Clovis that have a mix of Hispanics and conservative white voters.

California's 22nd District Kevin McCarthy (R) Bakersfield/Porterville/Lancaster
Brown 33%, Whitman 58%
Obama 35%, McCain 62%
Demographics: 6% African American, 5% Asian, 35% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican

The 22nd district undergoes a few changes. It loses all of heavily Republican inland San Luis Obispo County and gains parts of Tulare County such as the Sierras and Porterville. Besides these changes, the 22nd district remains safe for McCarthy and heavily Republican.

California's 23rd District Lois Capps (D) San Luis Obispo County/Santa Barbara County
Brown 47%, Whitman 46%
Obama 57%, McCain 42%
Demographics: 4% Asian, 35% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic

The 23rd district undergoes some major changes as its lines become similar to its lines during the 1990s. The 23rd district loses all of heavily Democratic Oxnard and gains inland San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, both strongly Republican areas. Before the commission changed the lines, the 23rd district protected Capps from Republican challenges by representing a thin line along the coast that contained Democratic areas such as UCSB, CAL Poly and Oxnard. A 10 mile wide strip along the coast was not compact so the new 23rd district combines communities of interest. As for Capps, her district was extremely competitive during the 1990s but the 23rd district is trending Democratic with its universities and growing Hispanic populations. Also, she is more entrenched now but she may face a challenge from former Lieutenant Governor and State Senator from San Luis Obispo County Abel Maldonado (R). Although Obama won solidly here, Brown barely won because the university areas had much lower turnout than they did in 2008. As long as Capps can keep the turnout in the universities high, she should win but if it is low and Maldonado wins big in San Luis Obispo County, Capps will be in trouble.

California's 24th District Vacant (Elton Gallegly (R)?) Oxnard/Thousand Oaks/Malibu
Brown 47%, Whitman 47%
Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Demographics: 6% Asian, 42% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic if Gallegly does not run, Lean Republican if he does

The 24th district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Inland Santa Barbara County and Simi Valley and gains the Democratic areas of Oxnard and Malibu. The old 24th district voted for Obama by a small margin but Gallegly always performed strongly there. His home Simi Valley is now in the 25th district but Gallegly will probably not run there because voters in the other parts of the new 25th district such as Palmdale are unfamiliar to him. In the last few election cycles though, Gallegly hinted he wants to retire. He has not run a tough race in many years and a 57% Obama district will definitely interest a strong Democratic candidate. That percentage may convince him to retire, paving the way for a strong candidate such as State Senator Fran Pavley (D) from Oxnard. If State Senator Tony Strickland (R) who represents Santa Barbara and the more conservative parts of Ventura County runs, this race will be tough. Still, the Obama turnout in 2012 should help Pavley.

California's 25th District Buck McKeon (R) vs. Elton Gallegly (R) Simi Valley/Santa Clarita/Palmdale
Brown 39%, Whitman 53%
Obama 45%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 8% African American, 7% Asian, 35% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican

The 25th district changes as it loses Mono and Inyo Counties while gaining conservative Simi Valley. The 25th retains conservative Santa Clarita and Democratic trending Palmdale. Although parts of the district are trending Democratic, McKeon is an entrenched incumbent and McCain still won here by 6. McKeon should have no problems against Democrats here and should beat Gallegly in a primary.
California's 26th District David Dreier (R) Covina/San Dimas/Baldwin Park
Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Obama 61%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 15% Asian, 63% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

Dreier's home of San Dimas is in the district but due to Obama's 61% performance here and the 63% Hispanic population, Dreier will probably not run in this district. This district is extremely different from Dreier's current district because this district contains the Hispanic areas of El Monte and Covina although retaining the Republican leaning San Dimas and Glendora areas. As for possible candidates for this district, State Senator Ed Hernandez (D) and the State Assembly's Assistant Majority Whip, Roger Hernandez (D) may consider running here.

California's 27th District Brad Sherman (D) vs. Howard Berman (D) Calabasas/West San Fernando Valley/
Brown 57%, Whitman 38%
Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 4% African American, 12% Asian, 27% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 35% for McCain is too low to let a Republican win in the new 27th district so the real contest should be the primary. In 2002, the San Fernando Valley had a large Hispanic population but it was divided between Sherman's and Berman's districts so Sherman and Berman could be reelected. The commission though decided that the San Fernando Valley needed a Hispanic majority district so they placed the whiter parts of the San Fernando Valley into this district. Although the new 27th district contains more of Sherman's district, Berman has more seniority. Berman has stated he expects to run in the district he lives in and he lives in this district. If Sherman does not want to face a primary challenge, it is possible Sherman will run in the nearby Ventura County district containing Oxnard. As for communities of interest, this district follows that criterion by combining mostly upscale parts of the San Fernando Valley area.

California's 28th District Vacant San Fernando/East San Fernando Valley
Brown 67%, Whitman 28%
Obama 71%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 4% African American, 8% Asian, 68% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

In 2002, many Hispanic groups were unhappy that the San Fernando Valley did not receive a Hispanic majority, despite the area's large Hispanic population. The commission created this Hispanic majority district though by combining areas near I-5 and I-210. Although this district contains large portions of Berman's current district, he expects to run in the 27th district. A possible candidate for the 28th district includes rising star in the State Senate Alex Padilla (D).

California's 29th District Adam Schiff (D) Burbank/Pasadena/Upland
Brown 55%, Whitman 40%
Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics: 6% African American, 12% Asian, 27% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic if Dreier runs

The 29th district mostly represents communities of interest by combining the similar areas of Burbank, Glendale and Pasadena. It also represents Upland in San Bernardino County which is far from BGP but is a community of interest as an upscale foothill community. Dreier may run here because this district and his current district share many of the foothill towns such as Upland and Claremont. Schiff should win though due to his base in the Democratic Pasadena area.

California's 30th District Henry Waxman (D)
Brown 69%, Whitman 25%
Obama 71%, McCain 28%
Demographics: 4% African American, 18% Asian, 37% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The current 30th represents communities of interest by combining upscale communities in the Westside including Malibu, Santa Monica and Beverly Hills. This district though does not completely combine communities of interest. Although it combines some upscale communities such as Pacific Palisades and Beverly Hills, it combines these areas with more working class neighborhoods near Downtown Los Angeles. The 30th district should represent either upscale areas in West LA or working class neighborhoods near Downtown Los Angeles, not both. The two areas have different concerns, one having a large film industry presence while the other is focused more around labor. As for Waxman, he should no problem winning in this heavily Democratic district and the 37% Hispanic is not high enough for a Hispanic primary challenger.

California's 31st District Xavier Beccara (D) vs. Lucille Roybal Allard (D) Eagle Rock/East Los Angeles/Huntington Park
Brown 76%, Whitman 17%
Obama 78%, McCain 16%
Demographics: 10% Asian, 71% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district combines two VRA Hispanic majority districts so if this map passes, it is likely to receive a lawsuit. The Hispanic population in the Los Angeles area is growing and can definitely support Beccara and Allard's districts. The district does combine communities of interest though by representing the heavily Hispanic areas of Huntington Park, East Los Angeles and Commerce.

California's 32nd district Judy Chu (D) Arcadia/Pasadena/Diamond Bar
Brown 54%, Whitman 41%
Obama 61%, McCain 38%
Demographics: 49% Asian, 29% Hispanic
Status: Likely Democratic

The 32nd district becomes less Hispanic by losing all of East Los Angeles, El Monte and West Covina. The district becomes more Asian by gaining Arcadia, Temple City and San Marino. The district then goes toward the San Bernardino County border to gain heavily Asian cities there including Walnut and Diamond Bar. This district suits its representative, Judy Chu because her current district is heavily Hispanic and a Hispanic candidate could unseat her in the primary. The Hispanic population in this district is 29% though so Chu should have no problems winning the Democratic primary. Asians do not consider themselves one ethnic group but they will probably support another Asian candidate over a Hispanic candidate. Although Chu is safe from a primary challenge, Rep. Gary Miller's (R) home of Diamond Bar was drawn into this district. He will probably not run here because not only does this district lean Democratic; he is unfamiliar to the voters in the western half of the district. As for communities of interest, the district combines heavily Asian suburban areas but the western part is in the San Gabriel Foothills while the eastern part is closer to San Bernardino County.


California's 33rd District Karen Bass (D) Culver City/Ladera Heights
Brown 77%, Whitman 17%
Obama 81%, McCain 18%
Demographics: 22% African American, 11% Asian, 37% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 33rd district becomes less African American as it gains neighborhoods between Sunset Blvd., Santa Monica and Beverly Hills and loses some neighborhoods just to Beverly Hills's south. These changes reduce the African American population to 22% and increase the Hispanic population to 37%. Hispanic turnout rates are usually low so there should be higher African American turnout in the Democratic primary than Hispanic turnout. Also, Bass is popular with white liberals so she should perform well with white voters in the primary too. As for communities of interest, this district splits the white population in the Westside that should be represented in one district. The 33rd district's new lines should be similar to its current ones instead.

California's 34th District Vacant Pomona/Ontario
Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Demographics: 7% African American, 9% Asian, 57% Hispanic
Status: Lean Democratic

This new district contains mostly Hispanic areas by combining Pomona and Ontario. The district also contains Rancho Cucamonga which has a smaller Hispanic population but is close to Pomona and Ontario so it can be considered a community of interest. As for the district's next representative, Gloria Negrete McLeod (D) said, "I'm in." She is a Hispanic State Senator representing Pomona and Ontario. Possible Republicans include David Dreier (R) because he formerly represented Rancho Cucamonga. For Dreier to win though, he will have to perform well with Hispanic voters in Pomona and Ontario. This will be difficult though because McLeod should perform well with Hispanic voters and win in Pomona and Ontario because the voters there are familiar with her. Also, this district is trending Democratic as more Hispanics move here so if a Democrat does not win in 2012, a Democrat should win in '14.

California's 35th District Maxine Waters (D) Inglewood/Westmont/Bell Gardens
Brown 84%, Whitman 9%
Obama 88%, McCain 11%
Demographics: 21% African American, 75% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district is too Democratic to elect a Republican but the primaries will be interesting. The 35th district is now 75% Hispanic and the 21% African American population is probably not enough for Waters to win the primary. Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) may run here because her current district becomes less Hispanic and the new 35th district gains some of her current territory by gaining South Gate. The district's large Hispanic population plus a strong challenge from Sanchez should unseat Waters. The 35th combines communities of interest by representing working class areas in and around South Central Los Angeles.

Thoughts on California's Redistricting Commission's Meeting June 27th

I attended the May 19th commission meeting in Santa Rosa, Ca. My analysis of that meeting is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/my-visit-to-california-redistricting.html
In that meeting, most of the attendees were residents from the North Coast, Sonoma County and Marin County. Only one San Francisco resident attended. Most of the commenter’s advocated for not placing Marin in the same district with San Francisco. The commission listened to the commenter’s by not placing San Francisco and Marin in the same district. Instead, the commisssion's initial plan placed Marin and Del Norte Counties in the same district instead. I also attended a rally on June 18th in San Rafael, Ca and Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D) said we should write to the commission to declare our opposition to the new lines connecting Del Norte and Marin Counties. I believed that because of the subject's local attention, many people would attend the June 27th meeting to oppose the new lines the commission drew for the congressional district. I arrived early to get a good spot on line. I was speaker #16.

While waiting, I talked to a few people in the lobby. I talked to a couple from Mendocino County who disliked the lines connecting Marin County to their district. Also, I talked with a group that wanted fair representation for Asians under the new lines. They disliked the State Senate lines that combined Daly City and San Francisco because they believed that Daly City would be underrepresented in the new district. I also talked to a member of the American Cancer Society. She was a resident from American Canyon and later, I would learn that she was not the only one.

The first speakers spoke about redistricting in the South Bay. "Put East Palo Alto in the 12th district," one of them said. Another wanted the tri cities of Menlo Park, Palo Alto and East Palo Alto to be in the same district. A few people advocated for uniting Fremont in one congressional district instead of splitting it between two districts. I believe that Fremont should be split the way it is because I want to increase the Asian percentage in the Milpitas area district to increase the likelihood that this district elects an Asian representative once Mike Honda (D) retires. A group who worked with Napa Valley Winegrowers argued that Sonoma, Lake and Napa Counties belonged in the same congressional district. They did not want Marin with Sonoma but as the speakers in the May 19th meeting indicated, Marin residents did not want to be in the same congressional district with San Francisco.

Finally, the commission called #16 so I went to the podium to speak. I advocated for keeping Marin and Sonoma Counties in the same congressional district because we are connected by the SMART train, dairy farms and Route 101. We also are filled with transplants from San Francisco. I explained how Mendocino County was mostly rural with an economy based on wineries and tourism and Humboldt County also had a tourism based economy. Other facts I highlighted include that Del Norte County is a six hour drive from Marin and that Santa Rosa had around 160,000 people so it belonged in a district with a more urban environment. Marin and Sonoma combined would create a more urban/suburban environment that would be a community of interest with Santa Rosa. I highlighted how the commission's initial plan placed Santa Rosa is in the same congressional district as Yuba City and some Sierra Foothills and I asked the commission what Santa Rosa had in common with those areas. The only road connecting the Sonoma/Napa area to Yuba City is a curvy road through the mountains. If people want to go to Yuba City from Napa, they would drive on Route 80 to Route 5 and this drive passes through four other congressional districts. I also mentioned that Yuba City has a larger agricultural economy while Santa Rosa has less agriculture.

Here I am presenting:

After I spoke, I heard speakers express concern for creating that congressional district that extends from Sausalito to Crescent City. Residents in Crescent City probably disliked the new lines but would not drive six hours to San Francisco to testify. Scott Weiner, the representative of District 8 in San Francisco, argued that San Francisco should be in an odd State Senate district. If San Francisco is in an even one, San Francisco will have no State Senate representative until 2014. He wanted Diamond Heights and Castro to be in the same district. After Weiner spoke, a man wearing a "Don't Tread on me" jacket came and suggested that the districts should be divided by zip codes. A Redwood City resident later said he did not know who his representative was because his zip code was split. I disagree with the zip code idea because while drawing districts, the commission needs to examine factors such as the Voting Rights Act and zip codes do not always combine minority communities effectively. A speaker from Dana Point in Orange County spoke at the meeting too, advocating for combining Monarch Beach and Dana Point in the same district.

Speaker #28 was the first of many speakers working with the California Conservative Action Group (CCAC). They drew maps for California's districts that they say will address the concerns of California's residents. Chris Bowman and Alan Payton drew the maps. Speaker #31, Jerry Diaz with the CCAC said that the congressional plan would combine Marin and Sonoma Counties while Redwood City and Scotts Valley would be in the same congressional district too. Another CCAC speaker criticized the State Senate map that placed Gilroy and Lompoc in the same district. I hope the commission alters this district by dropping the Santa Barbara County portion containing Lompoc because this district will be contested and northern Santa Barbara County leans Republican. #32, Sue Carol with the CCAC argued that the commission should not create district with the same voters but should combine voters by the same regions. If commissioners combined voters by regions, not only would they violate the Voting Rights Act, they would help the Republicans. The current 18th and 20th congressional districts are represented by Democrats because the districts combine Hispanic urban and farming communities across the Central Valley. Even if they do not live near each other, Hispanic farm workers in Fresno and Kern County have similar concerns involving fair treatment and wages. White voters in Clovis and Hispanic voters in South Fresno will have different concerns. #37 also advocated for a congressional line change that will help the Republicans. #37 said that Antioch should not be in the same congressional district with northern San Joaquin County. San Joaquin County is a swing area (it was one of the few counties Boxer lost and Brown won in 2010,) but Antioch leans Democratic and brings the Obama percentage in that district to 58%. By removing Antioch from the district, the San Joaquin County district would have to add more Republican areas such as Manteca and perhaps some Republican leaning parts of Stanislaus County.

After most of the CCAC group members spoke, we heard from many of the LGBT groups in San Francisco. Usually, groups such as the Log Cabin Republicans and Equality California do not join forces but they did for the commission meeting. Dan Brown, a leader with the Log Cabin Republicans said they want an Assembly District with more same sex couples. I also heard from some residents of the DPL area (Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore) who wanted to be in a congressional district with San Ramon and other communities in the San Ramon Valley. Mark Cameron, a city councilmember from Cotati in Sonoma County disagreed with the congressional lines connecting Cotati with Yuba City and said, "We share a common agricultural history with Petaluma and Sebastapol." #43 drove from Siskiyou County on the Oregon border and invited the commission to Siskiyou County because the commission had not been to the Oregon border area in Northern California. I even saw Brian Leubitz, the founder of Calitics, a prominent blog for California politics. He wanted to keep Marin and Sonoma Counties united and wanted more LGBT representation.

Speaker #47 was Mark Joseph, an American Canyon council member and one of the many speakers from American Canyon. Although American Canyon's population is 19,000 people, its residents were well represented at the meeting. A bus from American Canyon brought residents to the meeting and the American Canyon residents had food provided for them. Joseph said that Napa needed to be kept whole and that American Canyon is the industrial base of Napa County with wine bottling and warehousing. 20 years ago, the wine industry in northern Napa County disliked American Canyon but the Assemblywoman they shared worked to unite American Canyon and the rest of Napa County. Speaker #48 was the Napa County Supervisor from American Canyon. He said that, “[the commission] has rallied Napa County like no other.” He also mentioned how American Canyon was treated as “North Vallejo,” and American Canyon did not want to be treated that way. Another speaker referred to American Canyon as “a great little city,” and severing American Canyon from Napa would stifle its voice. One of the most convincing speeches though was delivered by Brenda Knight, Speaker #56 and the chair of Napa Valley College. She described American Canyon as “the most diverse city in Napa. We had to fight for our zip code and post office. We are now accepted in Napa. The new districts erase everything we fought for.” After Knight finished her speech, the American Canyon mayor Leon Garcia announced that he had a petition with 1,103 signatures for keeping American Canyon in the same district with all of Napa County. Speaker #59 was Susan Lee with the American Canyon Chamber of Commerce. She said local business owners oppose the new districts. Speaker #65 said, "Keep Napa Napa." After the American Canyon residents had finished their presentations, Commissioner Peter Yao said he hears American Canyon, “loud and clear.”

Overall, I believe American Canyon did a fantastic job organizing their opposition to the new lines. Not only did they bring in many speakers, they brought a diverse array. They had elected officials, education officials, business representatives and residents. They had representatives of almost every aspect of American Canyon. My advice is that if your town/city wants to advocate for a cause, do not bring one part of the town, and bring people who represent all aspects of the town, suggesting unanimous support for a cause. Not only did American Canyon’s presentation teach me about their town and struggle for acceptance, it taught me how to effectively organize a town for a cause such as fair congressional representation.

Other highlights from this meeting include that only a few Marin residents came to protest the new congressional lines connecting them with Del Norte County. In the May 19th meeting in Santa Rosa, Marin residents were motivated to come and advocate for not being combined with San Francisco. In this meeting, only a few Marin residents appeared to advocate for being combined with almost all of Sonoma County. This could mean that Marin residents are happier with the lines extending to Del Norte County. If one Marin and one North Coast politician face each other in a top two primary, the Marin politician would probably win because of the higher population in the congressional district’s southern part. Also, a few Sonoma County residents attended and many of them wanted to combine Sonoma County in a congressional district with Napa and Mendocino Counties due to the presence of winegrowers there. If the commission combines Napa, Sonoma and Lake into the same congressional district, they may combine Marin County with San Francisco. Although I dislike the congressional district that combines Marin and Del Norte Counties, I would prefer this North Coast district to a San Francisco/Marin district.

Analysis of California's Proposed Congressional Redistricting Maps Part I

On November 2nd, 2010, California voters passed Proposition 20 allowing a commission composed of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 Independents to redraw my state's congressional districts. Previously, the state legislature drew the maps. In the House of Representatives, the representatives represent voters in districts the legislature draws. In recent years though, states such as Washington and California have chosen commissions to draw districts without political influence. In California, the commission traveled around the state to hear public comments from citizens like me and talk to groups such as MALDEF. On June 10th, 2011, the California Redistricting Commission released their first set of maps for California after hearing public comments from meetings such as this one on May 20th that I attended. The guidelines set for the commission were to draw districts that follow the VRA, stick to county boundaries as much as possible and preserve communities of interest. This analysis examines the first 17 congressional districts to examine whether they fit the communities of interest requirements and what happens to the districts' incumbents under the new lines. The commission has dismantled gerrymandered districts such as the 25th which connected Mono County in the High Desert with Santa Clarita in the Los Angeles suburbs. Still, I want to ensure that they have drawn all the districts so the districts respect communities of interest. Here is a link to the new maps of California:
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-redistricting-map,0,6145644.htmlstory

The demographics and the voting percentages can be found here: http://redistrictingpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/CRC-First-Draft-Political-Data.pdf
A few notes: I will give district numbers according to the incumbents who live in the districts and/or which incumbent is most likely to run in the district due to factors such as the partisan makeup and familiarity with the constituents.

District 1 Mike Thompson (D) Santa Rosa/Napa/Yuba
Brown 54%, Whitman 38%
Obama 62%, McCain 34%
Demographics: 5% Asian, 29% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

I attended the meeting where the commission heard comments about Santa Rosa. A few meeting attendees said they wanted to combine the Napa area with the Central Valley but no one mentioned combining Santa Rosa with the Central Valley. Santa Rosa is more working class than the surrounding communities but it is not similar to Yuba County. Sonoma County does have agriculture but Santa Rosa is not very agricultural. Yuba County is very agricultural.  Anyway, this district may be a "leftovers district" because these areas had no district for them so they were placed in the 1st district. I would suggest that the lst district should have similar lines to its current form. This would unite Yolo, Napa, Mendocino, Lake, Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. Although Yolo and a few of the North Coast Counties may be different, they are more similar than Santa Rosa and Yuba City because Yolo County has Davis with university liberals and Humboldt County has Humboldt State also with university liberals. It also keeps the theme of counties with small cities instead of one city with around 160,000 people (Santa Rosa) with more rural territory with a few small cities.  Placing Santa Rosa with Marin County and the rest of Sonoma County keeps the theme of medium sized cities/suburbs with some rural areas mixed into the district. The lines help the Democrats though by placing Yuba County in this district because Yuba County could be used in another district to make it more Republican. Anyway, Santa Rosa and Napa County should keep this district in the Democratic column. Mike Thompson's home of St. Helena is located in this district so he may run here.

District 2 Wally Herger (R) Redding/Susanville/Chico
Brown 39%, Whitman 51%
Obama 44%, McCain 50%
Demographics: 14% Hispanic
Status: Likely Republican

The 2nd district combines the northern section of the current 2nd and 4th districts. It appears to follow communities of interest at first because it combines conservative small cities and towns across Northern California. The district contains both agricultural and mountain communities though with Susanville and Tehama County so the district does not completely follow communities of interest. Still, the communities are similar enough but I would prefer a district that contains the Valley and one that contains the high desert instead of containing both. As for a partisan standpoint, the district appears Republican but due to the inclusion of Nevada and Butte Counties, the Republican margin drops. Herger made a gaffe by calling a self described right wing terrorist a "Great American" so a strong Democrat in a very Democratic year will have a shot.

District 3 Dan Lungren (R) Sacramento suburbs
Brown 49%, Whitman 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Asian, 17% Hispanic
Status: Tossup

This district does follow communities of interest by staying in Sacramento County and representing Sacramento suburbs. I have no quibbles with this district from a COIs point of view. As for its partisan makeup, the district becomes a few points more Democratic with Obama's percentage rising from 49% to 51%. This will help Ami Bera (D) who will challenge Lungren in 2012. Bera is a strong fundraiser and lost by seven points to Lungren in 2010, a very Republican year and Lungren ran in a more Republican district.

District 4 Tom McClintock (R) Placer County/Sierras from Placer to Fresno
Brown 36%, Whitman 57%
Obama 41%, McCain 56%
Demographics: 4% Asian, 11% Hispanic
Status: Safe Republican
This district contains Placer County, formerly part of McClintock's 4th district but it now contains counties in the Central Sierra instead of the southern Sierra. If McClintock ran here, he should have no trouble because the district is heavily Republican but there is a slight chance the representative of the 19th district Jeff Denham (R) will run here.

District 5 Doris Matsui (D) Sacramento/Elk Grove
Brown 66%, Whitman 29%
Obama 68%, McCain 30%
Demographics: 13% African American, 20% Asian, 26% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district adds Elk Grove but besides this change, it remains similar to its current form. McClintock lives in this district but it is strongly Democratic so Matsui should have no trouble winning here. McClintock will probably run in the 4th district because it contains most of his current district.

District 6 Lynn Woolsey (D) Marin/North Coast/Del Norte County
Brown 64%, Whitman 30%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 16% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

I live in this district but I am opposed to its lines because I believe that Marin County has more in common with Sonoma County than Del Norte County on the Oregon border. Santa Rosa may be more labor based but it shares transportation corridors with the SMART train and closeness to Marin instead of Del Norte which is a 5 hour drive. The 6th district contains some of Sonoma County fortunately with Petaluma, the coast, Windsor,Healdsburg and Cloverdale. The district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative with Obama winning 71% of the vote under these lines so if Woolsey retires, the battle will be in the primary and three candidates from Marin will likely  run. They are Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams (D), progressive activist Norman Solomon (D) and State Assembly member Jared Huffman (D). I attended a peace rally on June 18th in San Rafael actually that featured Norman Solomon, Susan Adams and Lynn Woolsey as speakers. At the rally, Woolsey stated that she wants people to write to the commission to argue for combining Marin and Sonoma in the same district. I hope you will join them.

As for Woolsey's replacement if she retires, Wesley Chesbro (D) a State Assembly member may run from the newly added North Coast. His Assembly district starts in Windsor and extends to Del Norte County on the Oregon border. Although the Marin County/Southern Sonoma and North Coast parts of the district have similar populations numbers, the three Marin candidates may split the Marin vote allowing Chesbro to win by carrying the North Coast. In 2008, a similar scenario appeared likely when the 3rd State Senate district opened and Joe Nation (D) from Marin faced SF candidates Mark Leno (D) and Carole Migden (D). The 3rd State Senate district represented Marin, southern Sonoma County and part of San Francisco. The majority of the district's population lived in San Francisco though. Nation hoped the two SF candidates would split the SF vote. Leno though campaigned hard in Marin, highlighting his liberal positions and lost Marin County by only 7 points, which allowed Leno to win the primary. One of the most important issues for North Coast voters is the environment so a Marin candidate may campaign heavily in the North Coast on the environment. Huffman and Solomon may fight to win the environmental voters while they each try to claim they are more environmentally friendly. This creates an opening for Supervisor Adams though. She can win by running by highlighting her work on three areas: family, health care and women's issues which are important issues for Marin's suburban voters while Huffman, Solomon and Chesbro try to outdo the others on the environment. She has worked on the environment too by helping the Marin County Open Space District and the St. Vincent’s/Silveira land but she should highlight her strong record on families, health care and women's issues while Solomon and Huffman fight for the environmental voters. This strategy could give her the opening she needs to win.

District 7 George Miller (D) Pinole/Solano County/Davis
Brown 60%, Whitman 34%
Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 11% African American, 16% Asian, 25% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district moves northward and now contains all of Solano County as well as Davis in Yolo County. Garamendi may run in this district because it contains part of Sacramento County where Garamendi lives. Miller would probably win here though because the 7th district contains parts of his current district including Pinole, Vallejo and Vacaville.

District 8 Nancy Pelosi (D) San Francisco
Brown 78%, Whitman 17%
Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Demographics: 6% African American, 32% Asian, 15% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district grows a bit to eliminate population deviation but remains strongly Democratic.

District 9 Barbara Lee (D) Richmond/Berkeley/Oakland
Brown 85%, Whitman 10%
Obama 88%, McCain 9%
Demographics: 21% African American, 19% Asian, 23% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic
The 9th district remains the most Democratic district in California by gaining part of Richmond. Also, the 9th district becomes more African American making it harder for a non African American candidate to defeat Lee in a primary.

District 10 John Garamendi (D) Walnut Creek/Concord/Inner Contra Costa County
Brown 59%, Whitman 37%
Obama 67%, McCain 31%
Demographics: 6% African American, 15% Asian, 21% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 10th district contains communities of interest by representing higher income communities such as Walnut Creek, Lafayette and Danville in Contra Costa County. Although Garamendi does not live in the 10th district, he could run here because it contains most of his old district which represented the Walnut Creek area and Fairfield. Miller lives here but most of his current district is not in the 10th so it is unlikely he will run here.

District 11 Vacant Jerry McNerney (D)? Antioch/Oakley/Lodi/Stockton
Brown 52%, Whitman 42%
Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Demographics: 9% African American, 14% Asian, 37% Hispanic
Status: Likely Democratic

This district represents towns in eastern Contra Costa County including Antioch, Brentwood and Oakley. It also represents San Joaquin County north of Manteca which includes Democratic Stockton and Republican leaning Lodi. I believe these areas are communities of interest because they include medium sized cities near and in the Central part of the Central Valley. McNerney's current district was carved up under the new lines and he currently represents Brentwood and Lodi. The new lines place McNerney in a district with Rep. Pete Stark (D) so if Stark decides not to retire, McNerney may run here. A primary challenge from a Stockton Democrat is likely though. As for a Republican challenge, McNerney won in a 54% Obama district in a very Republican year so he should win in a 57% Obama district in a neutral year.

District 12 Jackie Speier (D) San Francisco/San Mateo/Redwood City
Brown 67%, Whitman 28%
Obama 74%, McCain 23%
Demographics: 30% Asian, 22% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

Besides gaining East Palo Alto and Half Moon Bay, the 12th district maintains similar lines. Speier should have no trouble winning in this solidly Democratic district.

District 13 Pete Stark (D) vs. Jerry McNerney (D) Hayward/San Leandro/Pleasanton
Brown 62%, Whitman 33%
Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Demographics: 8% African American, 27% Asian, 25% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 13th district undergoes some changes as it loses Fremont and gains Dublin, Pleasanton and Livermore over the hills. Although the district remains strongly Democratic, Jerry McNerney's home of Pleasanton is in the new 13th district. Stark represents more of the new 13th district than McNerney does but Stark is 80 years old so this new district may convince him to retire. If Stark retires, McNerney should not lose in the Republican primary but a Hayward or San Leandro Democrat may run in a primary. The Hayward/San Leandro area has a higher population than the Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore area does so McNerney will have to work hard for the Hayward/San Leandro area. As for communities of interest, Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore are separated by hills but they are in Alameda County and connected by Route 580 to the rest of the district.

District 14 Anna Eshoo (D) Palo Alto/Sunnyvale/Scotts Valley
Brown 62%, Whitman 33%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 31% Asian, 17% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 14th district stays mostly similar to its current form. It does become more of a Santa Clara County district as it loses all of Santa Cruz County except for Scotts Valley. It gains Santa Clara city and Cupertino. These areas are communities of interest by being high income communities in the Silicon Valley area. Scotts Valley though is closer to Santa Cruz than the rest of the district but Scotts Valley was most likely added for population deviation.

District 15 Mike Honda (D)? Campbell/San Jose/Gilroy
Brown 57%, Whitman 37%
Obama 66%, McCain 30%
Demographics: 18% Asian, 30% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Honda lives in this district that represents southern Santa Clara County and the Campbell area, he may not choose to run here. The reason is that the nearby 16th district is heavily Asian and Honda may prefer a district with a larger Asian population. Zoe Lofgren (D) lives in the 16th district but Lofgren and Honda can move and switch districts. As for communities of interest, the district combines the most urban parts of San Jose with the more suburban and rural parts of Santa Clara County but due to population deviation, this could not be avoided.

District 16 Zoe Lofgren (D)? Fremont/Milpitas/San Jose
Brown 62%, Whitman 31%
Obama 69%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 44% Asian, 33% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

This district represents communities of interest by representing Fremont, Milpitas, and Alum Rock which have similar demographics of large Asian and Hispanic populations. Although Lofgren lives in the 16^th district, she may decide to switch districts with Honda if Honda wants to represent a district with a large Asian population. They may both like the respective districts that contain their residencies so they may not move.

District 17 Sam Farr (D) Santa Cruz/Hollister/King City
Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Demographics: 5% Asian, 49% Hispanic
Status: Safe Democratic

The 17^th district adds Corralitos and a few rural communities in Santa Cruz County but besides these additions, the 17^th district does not change at all. It retains communities of interest by representing the two counties on Monterey Bay: Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties. The 17^th also represents San Benito County which has farming communities similar to the farming communities in Monterey’s Salinas Valley. Obama’s 71% of the vote in this district should prevent a Republican candidate from winning but if the district’s Hispanic population continues to grow, Farr may face a serious primary challenge from a Hispanic candidate.