New Jersey Fair Redistricting

New Jersey is one of the few states with a bipartisan redistricting commission. This means that even if one party holds the redistricting trifecta (Governorship and both houses of the legislature,) both parties will have a voice when New Jersey's state legislature and congressional lines are redrawn. At a first glance, a bipartisan commission suggests that the commission will draw a fair map that creates competitive districts that give opportunities for Democrats and Republicans to win. Also, a bipartisan commission would suggest a map with districts that combine communities of interest. The 2002 map that the commission drew though failed to create competitive districts that combined enough communities of interest. There were 13 congressional seats during the 2000s in New Jersey. During the 2000s, only one seat changed hands. In 2008, John Adler (D) gained the 3rd congressional seat for the Democrats and in 2010, Jon Runyan (R) returned the seat to the Republicans. This seat does not combine communities of interest though. The 3rd district combines Cherry Hill, a suburb close to Philadelphia with Toms River, a community on the central Jersey Shore. In my map's new 3rd district, it represents urban areas along the Delaware River instead of crossing the state to connect two different suburban areas connected only by a few roads crossing the rural Pine Barrens. Also, this map creates more competitive districts by making the 7th district more competitive by having Obama win it with 54% but the Republicans winning the district's average. Also, Republicans perform well in local races in New Jersey so they will have a strong shot at a 54% Obama district. Overall, the map should be 8-3-1 Democrats compared to the current 7-6 Democratic delegation. Anyway, here is a link to the current maps: http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer-cd.html?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd112_nj.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

Statewide
New Jersey's 1st Congressional District Rob Andrews (D) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 193,498 63.9%, McCain 109,476 36.1%
Average: Dem 61.2%, Rep 38.8%
Demographics 18+: 15.3% African American, 9.8% Hispanic, 69.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 34%
Status: Safe Democratic

Although I made major changes to some district such as the 3rd and 7th, the 1st district undergoes very minor changes. It does gain Republican leaning areas in western Gloucester County and part of Cherry Hill while losing all of its Burlington County precincts. These changes make the 1st district a point more Republican. It is still strongly Democratic at nearly 64% Obama so Andrews should have no trouble winning reelection. Also, the district combines communities of interest by combining the Philadelphia suburbs in Camden and Gloucester Counties.

New Jersey South

New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District Frank LoBiondo (R) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 156,149 52.8%, McCain 139,636 47.2%
Average: Dem 51.3%, Rep 48.7%
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 12.3% Hispanic,
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Status: Safe Republican with LoBiondo, Tossup if he retires

The 2nd district voted 53% for Obama and this number suggests the district is very competitive. The opposite is the case though because LoBiondo is moderate and extremely popular. He wins endorsements from many environmental groups in most of his races. Even in the heavily Democratic years of 2006 and 2008, he won easily despite Obama's narrow win here. The district's changes help LoBiondo a bit too by adding part of heavily Republican Ocean County along the shore. The district also does not undergo major changes so LoBiondo will continue to be elected by running in territory with familiar voters. If LoBiondo retires though, this district should become very competitive. It also combines communities of interest though by representing the combination of small cities, rural farmland and beach areas in southern Jersey.

New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District: Jon Runyan (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 187,899 60.7%, McCain 121,663 39.3%
Average: Dem 56.1%, Rep 43.9%
Demographics 18+: 15.6% African American, 6.3% Asian, 9.5% Hispanic, 66.8% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 3rd district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Ocean County. I removed Ocean County from the district because Ocean County is a Jersey Shore county filled with retirees and it is connected by only two roads to the Burlington County part of the district. The 3rd district now represents communities of interest by combining urban areas along the Delaware River by representing Willingboro, Burlington and Trenton. These changes boost the Obama numbers to around 60%. Runyan won by 3 points in 2010, a very Republican year and his entire margin came from Ocean County and he lost the Burlington and Camden County portions of the district. With the addition of heavily Democratic Trenton, Runyan will probably lose reelection. Rush Holt (D) may decide to run here because this district is safer than his other option, the 7th congressional district.

New Jersey's 4th Congressional District: Chris Smith (R) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 125,322 42.1%, McCain 172,426 57.9%
Average: Rep 41.8%, Dem 58.2%
Demographics 18+: 7.4% Hispanic, 85.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Status: Safe Republican

The 4th district represents more communities of interest and becomes more Republican as it loses all of Mercer and Burlington Counties. It gains more of Monmouth and Ocean Counties. It extends south in Ocean County to gain all of Silverton and Toms River. In Monmouth County, it extends north to gain Republican leaning Lincroft and Tinton Falls. The 4th district also loses a few precincts in Carmerville to the 6th district. These changes bring the McCain percentage up to nearly 58%, making it the most Republican district in the state. Chris Smith already had an easy time winning reelection here but the new district should make winning easier.

North New Jersey
New Jersey's 5th Congressional District: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 172,562 57.4%, McCain 128,175 42.6%
Average: Dem 55.0%, Rep 45.0%
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 15.4% Asian, 13.6% Hispanic, 58.9% White
Old Presidential Data: N/A
Status: Likely Democratic

This map eliminates both the current 5th district (which represents Sussex, Warren and north Bergen Counties,) and the 7th district (which represents parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Union and Middlesex Counties,) so I created the new 5th district. Most of its territory is from the current 11th and 7th districts. It takes parts of eastern Morris County from the 11th district while representing parts of Middlesex and Union Counties formerly in the 7th district. Both the 11th and 7th districts lean Republican but the 5th district becomes more Democratic by gaining Democratic areas too such as Rahway from the 10th district and Plainfield from the 6th district. The 5th district's goal is to combine communities of interest in Middlesex, Union and Morris Counties. The current map pairs Edison in Middlesex County with the Pennsylvania border in Hunterdon County. The new 5th district though represents suburban communities of interest and combines swing areas such as Westfield with nearby Democratic areas such as Plainfield instead of separating them into districts designed to protect incumbents. As for the politics of the 5th district, Frelinghuysen's home of Harding in Morris County is in the district. He will probably not run here because of the district's 57.4% Obama number. Also, he is not familiar to the voters in Union and Middlesex Counties. A moderate Republican such as Tom Kean Jr. (R) who lives in Westfield could pose a strong challenge but the district's Democratic lean should carry the Democrats to victory here.

New Jersey's 6th Congressional District: Frank Pallone (D) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 165,067 56.9%, McCain 124,975 43.1%
Average: Dem 55.7%, Rep 44.3%
Demographics 18+: 9.1% African American, 9.5% Asian, 16.8% Hispanic, 63.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 6th district undergoes a few changes. It loses all of Somerset County, all of Edison and its finger into Plainfield in order to combine more communities of interest. The district becomes more centered in Middlesex County as it gains Perth Amboy, East Brunswick and Milltown. Perth Amboy formerly was in the 13th district which combined Perth Amboy with North Bergen in Hudson County in order to create a Hispanic majority district. It is impossible to create a district with a Hispanic majority that also has Hispanics as the majority of the citizen voting population so I had to dismantle the Hispanic majority district. Also, a minority majority district cannot be created if the minority population in a certain area is not large enough for one and the district will have to have contorted lines to become a minority majority district. As for the 6th district, these changes bring the Obama percentage down from 60% to 57%. Although there is an argument that the more urbanized parts of  Monmouth and Middlesex Counties that this district combines are not communities of interest, I had to combine them for population reasons. As for the district's representation, the 57% Obama number should not hurt Pallone.

New Jersey's 7th Congressional District: Leonard Lance (R) vs. Rush Holt (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 169,679 54.3%, McCain 142,951 45.7%
Average: Obama 49.1%, McCain 50.9%
Demographics 18+: 8.5% African American, 11.7% Asian, 7.4% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 49% (7th district,) Obama 58%, McCain 40% (12th district)
Status: Tossup

The new 7th district is a combination of the current 7th and 12th districts, representing parts of Mercer and Middlesex Counties formerly in the 12th district while also representing Hunterdon and Somerset Counties which were formerly in the 7th district. The 7th district loses its finger into Union and Middlesex Counties and does a strong job of representing communities of interest by combining exurban parts of central New Jersey. I included Trenton because of population reasons. The addition of Trenton though brings Obama's number in the district up to 54%. Although that number suggests the district leans Democratic, it is very even because the Republicans win the average vote. Also, Somerset County in 2008 swung heavily to Obama but Somerset County usually votes Republican (Governor Christie won Somerset County by 22 points in 2009.) Also, Leonard Lance who lives in the district is moderate and popular. He won by 8 points in 2008, despite facing a strong challenger in an even district. If Holt decides to run here though, it will be a close fight because Holt is a strong candidate and half of the voters in the district are familiar with him. Most of the other half of the voters are familiar with Lance though.

New Jersey's 8th Congressional District: Bill Pascrell (D) Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 159,555 58.4%, McCain 113,625 41.6%
Average: Dem 57.6%, Rep 42.4%
Demographics 18+: 9.3% African American, 6.3% Asian, 28.4% Hispanic, 54.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 8th district becomes more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic West Orange and gains swing parts of Bergen County near Lyndhurst. Also, the district adds Caldwell in west Essex County which is heavily Republican. Although these changes decrease the Obama percentage to 58%, Pascrell should win easily. He is popular here and won with 63% in the heavily Republican year of 2010.

New Jersey's 9th Congressional District: Steve Rotham (D) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 172,011 56.7%, McCain 131,469 43.3%
Average: Dem 57.0%, Rep 43.0%
Demographics 18+: 6.0% African American, 16.0% Asian, 16.1% Hispanic, 60.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 38%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 9th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of its Hudson County portions including Jersey City and represents Bergen County only. This change makes the district more centered around communities of interest by combining the similar suburban areas in Bergen County that were built in the 1950's-60s instead of combining north Bergen County with Jersey City. The new district also gains the northern Republican leaning part of Bergen County with areas such as Norwood and Bergenfield. Although these changes bring down the Obama percentage to 56.7%, Rotham is a popular incumbent, winning 61% in 2010 so he should be safe.

Newark/Jersey City area
New Jersey's 10th Congressional District: Donald Payne (D) DeepPink
Presidential Data: Obama 204,541 83.0%, McCain 41,966 17.0%
Average: Dem 79.5%, Rep 20.5%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 5.8% Asian, 16.8% Hispanic, 24.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 87%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 10th district lost population so it had to gain more territory in order to maintain population equity with other districts. To represent as many communities of interest as possible though, the 10th district lot Rahway in Union County on the Middlesex County border so the 10th district could be more centered around Essex County and northern Union County. The 10th district also lost most of Elizabeth to the 12th district and Maplewood to the 5th district. To compensate for the loss of these areas though, the 10th district gained West Orange and some swing areas in Union County such as Cranford. These changes bring the Obama percentage down to 83% but the district is still African American majority VAP and is the most Democratic district in New Jersey.

New Jersey's 11th Congressional District: Scott Garrett (R) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 147,263 43.0%, McCain 195,297 57.0%
Average: Dem 39.7%, Rep 60.3%
Demographics 18+: 6.4% Asian, 8.5% Hispanic, 81.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 54%
Status: Safe Republican

The 11th district represents communities of interest by representing conservative and affluent exurban areas in western New Jersey. Those areas are western Morris County, western Bergen County, Warren and Sussex Counties. The 43% Obama number is too low to elect a Democrat in the 2nd most Republican district in New Jersey. The primary though will be interesting. Although Frelinghuysen does not live in this district, most of his current territory is here. The new 11th district is a combination of Garrett's and Frelinghuysen's districts. They each represent close to an equal portion of the district and are both popular representatives. Garrett is more conservative than Frelinghuysen is though so Garrett may have a stronger chance in the primary.

New Jersey's 12th Congressional District: Albio Sires (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 121,570 71.7%, McCain 48,010 28.3%
Average: Dem 72.2%, Rep 27.8%
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 10.0% Asian, 47.6% Hispanic, 32.4% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 75%, McCain 24%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 12th district becomes a few points more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic Perth Amboy and gains less Democratic areas such as Seacaucs and Kearny. The district also gains most of Elizabeth from the 10th district. These changes reduce the Obama percentage by a few points but the district is still heavily Democratic. Although the population of the district is majority Hispanic (50.3%,) the VAP is not. It is not possible to a create a Hispanic majority VAP district without extending the district to Perth Amboy and even there, the Citizens Voting Age population will probably not be over 50% for Hispanics. I used this district instead to combine communities of interest by representing industrial areas near the port such as Elizabeth and Kearny and combining it with the nearby Hudson County communities.

The Candidates Forum for California's 2nd Congressional District

I attended a forum for the Congressional Candidates for California's 2nd Congressional District on October 21st in the Marin Academy High School. The California Redistricting Commission redrew the map of California's districts so Marin County (where Marin Academy is) is in the same district as Mendocino, Humboldt, Del Norte, Trinity and parts of Sonoma County including Petaluma. I testified in front of the California Redistricting Commission twice and my analysis of those meetings is here:  http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/my-visit-to-california-redistricting.html and http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/07/thoughts-on-californias-redistricting.html
The new district that the Commission created spans from Sausalito to Crescent City. It represents all of Marin, Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity and Del Norte Counties. It also represents western Sonoma County, Petaluma and all of Sonoma County including and north of Windsor. The district now has a mix of affulent voters in the Marin County area with a mix of working class and extremely liberal and environmental voters in the northern part of the district. The district is heavily white and heavily Democratic.
This post though focuses on the congressional candidates for the new seat now that Lynn Woolsey (D), the current representative in Marin plans to retire. Although California has a top two primary system where all candidates run in a jungle primary and the top two vote getters face each other in a runoff, all five candidates at the forum were Democrats and many of the candidates stated, "We agree on most of the issues." The candidates were Susan Adams (D), the President of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, Jared Huffman (D), the California State Assembly member from the 6th district representing Marin and southern Sonoma Counties, Norman Solomon (D), a progressive activist from Inverness in West Marin, Stacy Lawson (D), an entrepreneur from San Rafael and Tiffany Renee (D), a Petaluma city councilmember. Already, I noticed that none of these candidates live in the North Coast areas recently added to the district. This could create an opening for a North Coast candidate such as Wesley Chesbro (D) who is the State Assembly member there but all five Marin candidates have campaigned heavily in the North Coast which should increase their visibility there. The candidates discussed their outreach to the North Coast frequently during the forum because the North Coast has issues critical to them as a rural area that do not affect Marin which is a more suburban county. The candidates began the forum with their opening statements.

Jared Huffman's main points are that he is hardworking (he passed 60 bills including those that helped state parks and oil spills,) the country needs less vitriol and he has record of overcoming political gridlock. I liked his opening statement because he stated his environmental work which will play well with the large number of pro environment voters in the 2nd district and he stated his willingness to compromise which is important in the divided house today. Norman Solomon's opening statement including him calling himself "the grassroots candidate." He also strongly praised Occupy Wall St. and stated "We cannot remain silent." He also described health care as a human right. Although the 2nd district has many very liberal voters, Solomon may be running too far to the left to win. A recent poll showed him with 11% while Huffman had 16%. 46% of the voters were undecided though. Still, running to the left worked for Woolsey in 2006 when Joe Nation (D) challenged her in the primary and she won 66%-34% by running to his left. The next candidate, Stacy Lawson talked about how she grew up in a trailer in Washington State and became a successful businesswoman. After Lawson spoke, Susan Adams gave her opening statement. She stated how she wants a healthy planet with healthy communities and how she was a nurse for 33 years who supports health care for all. She ended by saying "Send a nurse to heal the house." She will probably will try to win the woman vote, especially from Mothers by focusing on the strong communities theme. Tiffany Renee talked about how she was the first Latina elected to Petaluma's city council, she had 20 years of experience in the community and that the United States needs to improve the nation's infrastructure. I liked her ideas but she seemed to lack a certain charisma.
Neha Budhraja, one of the Editors in Chief of Marin Academy's School Newspaper, the Voice asked the first question. "How will the district's expansion change the issues you hope to work on?" Susan Adams discussed how coastal issues connected the district. "We rely on your voices," she said. Tiffany Renee responded by talking about building consensus throughout the district and looking at natural resources. Her answer could have been more specific about which issues in particular though. Stacy Lawson explained the issues well by stating, "I went up and down the district. We need jobs. The 2nd big issue is protecting the coastline. The district was created for coastal interests. The 3rd issue is education." Norman Solomon responded by quickly stating how all the counties are unique with common threads with a hunger for honesty like the child in the Emperor's New Clothes who said, "The Emperor is not wearing any clothes." Most of his answer did not fully revolve around the question though. For example, he described his article against the Bank Bailout in the Marin Independent Journal (Marin IJ.) He stated he wanted to challenge Wall Street and power does not go without a fight. Then he mentioned how 70% of his donations were $50 or less and he would not accept corporate or PAC money. It should be noted that federal candidates cannot accept corporate money, including Norman Solomon and his opponents. Norman Solomon should have focused his answer on the question instead of describing his donations or an article he wrote against the bailout because that does not answer how the new district will specifically affect the issues. Jared Huffman fully explained the issues the new districts face when he said the common elements in this district with 500 miles of coastline is protectin oceans and fisheries. Jared Huffman also listed how the League of Conservation Voters and Ocean Champions have endorsed him and he will soon announce additional endorsements. Although he mentioned his supporters like Norman Solomon did, Jared Huffman integrated them better by using them to describe his consistent reliability on environmental issues. Jared Huffman also mentioned how the North Coast has a resource based economy and how the district needs someone who understands those issues.

After the candidates answered the first question, they opened questions to the audience. The first question was, "How do you plan to work around the power of the Pentagon?" Norman Solomon answered first by stating how Wall Street was the root of the problems with the Pentagon and he had a Dr. King reference in his answer but his reference was a real stretch. Although the Wall Street issue seems very important to Norman Solomon, he should have stated his opinion on the Iraq War instead of circling back to Wall Street. I know Solomon supports a full withdrawl of troops from both Iraq and Afghanistan and I know that most of the audience members would have agreed with him. I am not sure if many of the audience members though can see the connection between the funding for the Pentagon and the corporate power referenced by Occupy Wall Street. Still, the Iraq War is not a major issue for people but the Occupy Wall Street movement is at this moment and growing every day. As for Susan Adams, she had a focused answer on the Pentagon question and she highlighted how wars affected her when she mentioned how her brother had PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.) Jared Huffman explained how he opposed the Iraq War from the beginning. Stacy Lawson also mentioned Occupy Wall Street in her answer. Tiffany Renee mentioned how the war was a personal issue for her because she had relatives fighting in it. She did not want Operation Welcome Home to be defunded.

The next question was, "What are your proposals for deficit reduction?" Jared Huffman quickly answered by stating that the Bush tax cuts must expire. He stated his support for the American Jobs Act, proposed by President Obama, because it leads our nation on the right path by creating clean energy infrastructure and less military spending. Norman Solomon responded by saying "We need to protest Wall Street," in order to gain tax equity. Although protesting Wall Street may not have been the best answer for a question relating to the Pentagon, Occupy Wall Street fit well with the question relating to deficit reduction. Norman Solomon made a good decision though to highlight his views on Occupy Wall Street. Jared Huffman, through his work in the State Assembly, already has established himself as the environmental candidate. Also, Huffman's endorsements and environmental bills would make it very hard for Norman Solomon to win on the environmental issue, so discussing the extremely relevant Occupy Wall Street issue seems to work for him and increase his popularity with the district's progressives. Stacy Lawson seems to be trying to paint herself as the jobs candidate although Norman Solomon seems to be winning the battle for the Progressive movement. Stacy's answer to the question was that she supports the Warren Buffett plan which increases taxes on the rich. She did not highlight her opinions on Occupy Wall Street though. In order to beat Norman Solomon though and take one of the spots for the election after the top two primary, she needs to position herself as the candidate who can create jobs instead of as the candidate who dislikes the corporate power structure because voters are looking for solutions. As for Susan Adams's response to the question, she highlighted her support for the Warren Buffett plan. "Let's help Warren Buffett" she said. She also described how Marin County balanced its budget while she was a Supervisor and how she supported stewardship of taxpayer dollars. For example, she discussed how the state may release 40,000 prisoners because of budget problems. "In Marin, we give prisoners rehibilitation instead of jail," she said. She then described how Marin's recidivism rate was reduced by 85%. Tiffany Renee's answer to the question was quick when she said that she supported Occupy Wall Street and that, "Corporations are not people. " This was a reference to Romney's recent statement describing corporations as people.

The next question was from an independent friend of mine who asked, "You are all  liberal. How do you plan to compromise?" Adams responded first, reiterating her theme of healthy communities by stating how our country needs healthy discussions. She also discussed her experience with talking to conservatives in the Central Valley. Jared Huffman said that being bipartisan is a good idea but giving ones values away is a bad idea. He passed many bipartisan bills while in the state legislature. Stacy Lawson said that most people are favorable of tax reform and we need to look beyond ideology. People should stand for and not against something. Tiffany Renee replied by describing her politically diverse family who could always sit down together happily at family dinners. She believed Congress would not sit down together like her family at family dinners. I like how she brought the personal aspect of her life into the compromise debate. Norman Solomon though took a different stance on the compromising issue. He said, "We need to distinguish between compromise and capitulation." He described how Civil Rights movement leaders were considered unrighteous. Then he said how they did not compromise by asking for no colored fountains on Thursdays, they asked for no colored fountains on all days. As Solomon finished his statement, he advertised his non GMO sunflower seeds in seed packets that he brought with him to the event. After this question, the event ended because of the time limit. A few of the candidates including Susan Adams, Stacy Lawson and Norman Solomon though stayed after the events. They did not have a chance to answer my questions in the forum so I wanted to have a chance to talk to them. I first talked to Stacy Lawson and I asked her about what she believes the most important issues for Marin's youth are. She said that getting into college was an extremely important issue. As for Norman Solomon, he talked about drug issues and their importance. Susan Adams also highlighted a quality education was extremely important for youth. Even after Stacy Lawson and Norman Solomon left, Susan Adams stayed to talk to teachers and students.

Overall, this event was a fantastic way for the Marin Academy Community and me to learn about the candidates. A recent poll showed that 46% of the district's voters are undecided so I am glad voters could see where the candidates stand. The two polls released in this race though show that Jared Huffman leads with 16% and 20% respectively. Even the poll Norman Solomon's campaign released showed Solomon down by 5 points to Huffman. Although running to the left of all the candidates may work in the Democratic primary, California's top two primary system may change the dynamics of the race. All candidates of all parties run in a primary and the top two vote getters face each other in the general election, even if the top two are members of the same party. This means that independents can vote for the candidates in the primary and they will probably support the most moderate candidates. The five Democrats are all liberal but Susan Adams and Stacy Lawson could make inroads with the more moderate voters. Stacy Lawson's message of jobs will play well with voters who are unemployed while Susan Adams's message should work with women, especially mothers with her healthy communities' message. Overall, the candidates are successfully defining their roles. Jared Huffman is the environmental candidate, Norman Solomon is the Occupy Wall Street candidate, Stacy Lawson is the jobs candidate, Susan Adams is the health candidate and Tiffany Renee is the Latina candidate. Although the economy is rough and people want jobs, the North Coast is known for its strong commitment to the environment so I see Jared Huffman winning in the end.

Maryland 7-0-1

I am aware this is my 5th Maryland map that I have drawn. I wanted to draw a map though that created a 7-0-1 map with seven heavily Democratic seats and one swing seat. Creating an 8-0 map would require taking some Democratic precincts from Prince Georges County into the 1st district on the Eastern Shore and most legislators from Prince Georges County do not want that to happen. They recently for the map Maryland just passed with seven Democratic districts and one heavily Republican district. Instead of drawing a map that way, I drew a map with two majority African American districts, safe districts for all incumbents, a new Democratic district in western Maryland and a swing district combining the Eastern Shore with Democratic parts of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. Also, this map features a new minority majority district. Anyway, here are the maps:

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris (R) Blue
Obama 48.0%, McCain 50.3%
Average: Dem 49.8%, Rep 50.2%
Demographics 18+: 4.7% Hispanic, 16.9% African American, 74.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Tossup

Harris does not live in this district anymore because his home is in Baltimore County and this district loses all of its territory in Baltimore County. This district retains all of the Eastern Shore which Harris previously represented so he may decide to run here. The 1st district gains Democratic leaning Annapolis, some Democratic leaning areas in western Anne Arundel County and a few Democratic precincts in Howard County. Even though McCain won the district, the district's Democratic average is nearly a tie. Also, Frank Kratovli (D) from the Eastern Shore may run here and he over performs in the Eastern Shore so if he runs, the Democratic areas outside of the Eastern Shore should be able to offset smaller Republican margins on the Eastern Shore.

Maryland's 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Obama 57.7%, McCain 40.3%
Average: Dem 63.1%, Rep 36.9%
Demographics 18+: 4.5% Hispanic, 4.6% Asian, 24.1% African American, 65.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 2nd Congressional district becomes a bit more Republican as it gains a few Republican areas from the 1st district such as Perry and parts of Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses all of its territory in Anne Arundel County as it becomes centered around Baltimore County and Baltimore City. Although the district is a bit less Democratic than before, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning here. The area votes heavily Democratic at a local level. It is possible Andy Harris (R) decides to run here but the nearly 58% Obama numbers may discourage him.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Obama 58.4%, McCain 39.6%
Average: Dem 60.7%, Rep 39.3%
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.8% Asian, 22.0% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd Congressional district changes a bit as it loses all of its area in Baltimore County except for Towson where Sarbanes lives. This district becomes focused around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, gaining parts of Columbia and Ellicot City that were formerly in the 7th district. The district remains strongly Democratic though with the 58% Obama number.

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Obama 75.5%, McCain 23.5%
Average: Dem 73.3%, Rep 26.7%
Demographics 18+: 7.7% Hispanic, 4.3% Asian, 50.3% African American, 35.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

Edwards's district becomes more Republican as it gains most of heavily Republican Carroll County. The district retains minority heavy parts of Montgomery County as Edwards requested. The district retains heavily Democratic and African American parts of Prince Georges County, maintaining its VRA status and remaining too Democratic for a Republican to win.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Obama 62.2%, McCain 36.6%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 5.4% Hispanic, 33.1% African American, 55.7% Whiite
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th congressional district does not undergo major changes as it retains the southern portion of Maryland. It does gain the swingy Crofton area though while losing some precincts near Crofton and Laurel in Prince Georges County. Obama's 62% of the vote in this district though should ensure that it will remain in Democratic hands.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Obama 60.7%, McCain 37.6%
Average: Dem 62.1%, Rep 37.9%
Demographics 18+: 10.4% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 9.0% African American, 70.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
Status: Likely Democratic

This district contains Van Hollen's home but makes major changes in its territory. While it retains heavily Democratic areas near Bethesda and Rockville, it also gains the Republican areas in the western part of the state in Alleghany, Garrett and Washington Counties. Van Hollen is very popular in his district though and the 60.7% Obama number should prevent Republican challengers such as Roscoe Bartlett (R) from successfully winning the district.

Maryland's 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Obama 67.8%, McCain 30.6%
Average: Dem 66.1%, Rep 33.9%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th Congressional district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Howard County and gains the heavily Republican areas of Harford and north Baltimore Counties. The even more strongly Democratic precincts in Baltimore City though keep this district strongly in the Democratic column.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (R) SlateBlue
Obama 65.1%, McCain 33.3%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 8.7% Asian, 20.1% Hispanic, 19.3% African American, 49.8% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Bartlett's home of Frederick is in the 8th district, he will probably not run here because of the 65% Obama numbers in this district. The 8th congressional district loses the heavily Republican western parts of Maryland with Alleghany and Garrett Counties while losing conservative areas in Carroll and Baltimore Counties. The 8th district then gains Democratic parts of Montgomery County such as Gaithersburg and even gains a small portion of Prince Georges County. Van Hollen may decide to run in the 8th district instead of the 6th district even though he does not live in the new 8th.

Ohio Fair Redistricting Map

As you may know, Ohio recently passed its new redistricting map for the 2010's decade. Ohio has a reputation for being the biggest swing state, deciding the election of 2004 and voting near the national average in 2000, 2004, and 2008. One might expect the legislature to draw a map designed to elect an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, so all political parties are fairly represented. The Republican legislature decided not to do that, instead, they drew a map designed to elect 12 Republicans and four Democrats. To create the large number of Republican districts, they split communities of interest by combining Toledo with Cleveland instead of creating a district representing Toledo and nearby counties. Also, instead of combining Cincinnati with nearby suburbs, they combine Cincinnati with a string to Warren County, an extremely conservative exurban county. They should have created a district representing as much of Hamilton County as possible because Hamilton County is where Cincinnati and its close suburbs are located. They should then create a district that represents the outer suburbs in Clermont, Warren and Butler Counties. Also, they placed Springfield and Lucas County (Toledo) in the same district. Another example of their splitting of communities of interest is when they combine suburbs close to Cleveland with not more Cleveland suburbs or Cleveland, they combine it Canton which is south of Akron and should not share a representative with voters who live in the Cleveland area. Canton and Cleveland are two distinct cities with two distinct metropolitan areas. The Ohio legislature should learn the intended purpose of congressional districts. It was not to help one's political party while stifling the voice of communities; it was to increase the voice of a community, not a political party. For example, in the 9th district which was drawn to absorb Democratic areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, if Marcy Kaptur (D) from Toledo retired and the district elected a Cleveland politician, the Toledo area will have no representative to go to Washington and fight for Toledo's interests because a Cleveland politician will not understand Toledo's interests as well as a Toledo politician would. Toledo has enough people for a district that can be drawn centered around it that would elect a representative who is familiar with Toledo's needs. Anyway, here is my map that combines communities of interest and creates competitive districts so incumbents will have to tailor to the needs of both parties in order to win reelection.

 Instead of creating 12 districts for the Republicans to win and 4 seats for the Democrats to win, this fair map tries to represent Ohio's close divide between both parties. This fair map also creates some competitive seats instead of seats designed to protect Republican incumbents for as long as they want. It creates four safe Democratic seats, two likely Democratic seats, three tossup seats, two lean Republican (they will both become tossups when their Republican incumbents retire,) one likely Republican seat and four safe Republican seats. Also, it is possible that there will be a referendum on the maps. If they are overtuned, a court will draw them. Hopefully the court draws a map similar to this one that respects communities of interest and creates many districts designed to be competitive for both parties.

Here is a link to Ohio's current congressional map: http://www.ocsea.org/politicalaction/districts.asp

Here is a link to the map Ohio's Republicans drew: http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2011/09/ohios_new_congressional_distri.html

Ohio statewide
Ohio's 1st Congressional District Steve Chabot (R) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 203,768 55.0%, McCain 162,949 44.0%
Average: Dem  52.1%, Rep  47.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Demographics 18+: 25.8% African American, 68.6% White
Status: Tossup

The 1st district becomes more centered around Cincinnati instead of extending into the suburbs around Hamilton County (Cincinnati.) The 1st district loses all of Butler County, stays completely within Hamilton County and gains all of Cincinnati as well as some nearby suburbs in eastern Hamilton County. As the district becomes more compact, it becomes more competitive as it gains swing areas in eastern Cincinnati in exchange for conservative areas in Butler County. This represents communities of interest better than the Ohio map the Republicans drew because that map combined exurbs in Warren County with inner city Cincinnati. Although Chabot won the district in 2010, that year had low Democratic turnout in heavily Democratic areas such as Cincinnati's inner city and the district is trending Democratic as Republican leaning voters move into suburban Butler, Warren and Clermont Counties. If Obama increases African American turnout in 2012, the Democrats will have a strong shot at winning. In a low turnout year though, Republicans will have a stronger chance.

Southwest Ohio
Ohio's 2nd Congressional District Jean Schmidt (R) vs. John Boehner (R) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 123,033 34.1%, McCain 233,542 64.7%
Average: Dem  35.4%, Rep  64.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 59%
Demographics 18+: 4.0% African American, 89.8% White
Status: Safe Republican

When I drew this map, I did not consider incumbents so John Boehner's (R) home is in the same district as Jean Schimdt's (R) but most of the territory here is in her current district. Boehner is Speaker of the House though so he should have no problem raising money in the primary but he may decide to run in the 8th district instead which contains most of his current district's territory. The new lines though remove Democratic parts of Hamilton County, making the district the most Republican one in Ohio so Schmidt can be as far right as she wants without worrying about a tough race in a Democratic year. In 2006 and 2008, she faced tight races from moderate Democrats who painted her as far right.

Ohio's 3rd Congressional District Mike Turner (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 187,716 50.2%, McCain 180,038 48.2%
Average: Dem  49.7%,  50.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 52%
Demographics 18+: 16.1% African American, 78.6% White
Status: Lean Republican, Tossup when Turner retires

This district becomes more Democratic and compact, losing rural counties such as Highland County that belong in a district that represents other rural counties in southern Ohio, not urban areas. The 3rd district combines urban areas, representing all of Montgomery County (Dayton) and Clark County (Springfield) as well as suburban Beavercreek in Greene County. Although the 3rd district becomes more Democratic, Turner should win here because he is popular and entrenched here. If he retires though, Democrats will have a strong shot at this district but it is trending Republican. Clark County voted for Gore in 2000 but Obama could not carry it in 2008.

Ohio's 4th Congressional District Vacant (Jim Jordan (R)?) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 140,593 41.0%, McCain 195,396 56.9%
Average: Dem  44.9%, Rep  55.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
Demographics 18+: 4.6% African American, 91.4% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 4th district moves further north as it loses four rural counties in the southern part of the district to the 8th district. It also loses Urbana which is Jordan's home but because this district contains most of Jordan's current territory and is strongly Republican, Jordan may run here. The district becomes a few points less Republican though as it gains swingy Sandusky County. Also, Bob Latta (R) may run here because his 5th district is eliminated and the 4th district adds part of his current district. Jordan represents more of the new 4th district than Latta does though so Jordan has the advantage.

Ohio's 5th Congressional District Jim Renacci (R) vs. Betty Sutton (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 174,487 48.9%, McCain 176,327 49.3%
Average: Dem 54.6%, McCain  45.4%
Old Presidential Data: (formerly the 16th) Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Demographics 18+: 3.7% African American, 91.7% White
Status: Tossup

This new district combines most of north central Ohio. It represents Democratic areas in Erie and Lorian Counties but also contains Medina and Ashland Counties which help counterbalance the Democratic areas. Overall, the district voted for McCain by less than 1 point so although the district may lean Republican, Democrats should have a shot here. Sutton though may decide to run in the nearby 13th district which is more Democratic and does not contain a Republican incumbent's residency. The 5th district contains more of her current district than the new 13th district on this map does though. Also, the average percentage for the district was 54.6% Democratic so the district definitely seems Democratic at a statewide level. It depends on how strongly turnout in Lorain and Erie Counties counterbalance the rest of the district.

Ohio's 6th Congressional District Bob Gibbs (R) vs. Bill Johnson (R) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 145,046 45.9%, McCain 163,435 51.7%
Average: Dem  55.7%, Rep  44.3%
Old Presidential Data: (for 6th district) Obama 49%, McCain 50% (for 18th district) Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Demographics 18+: 95.7% White
Status: Tossup

This district combines the homes of freshmen Bob Gibbs (R) and Bill Johnson (R). Gibbs represents a larger portion of the district though while the only areas in Johnson's current district and this one are Athens, his home of Marietta and a few small Ohio River counties. This district represents communities of interest though by combining rural counties with some small cities in eastern Ohio. Gibbs should win the primary here but he could face a tough general. Although this part of Ohio is trending away from the Democrats, the Democratic average was nearly 56% and former Reps. Charlie Wilson (D) or Zack Space (D) who lost in the 2010 Republican wave could make a comeback here in a neutral or Democratic year.

Ohio's 7th Congressional District Steve Austria (R) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 130,340 41.0%, McCain 181,484 57.1%
Average: Dem 46.5%, Rep 53.5%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics 18+: 4.8% African American, 92.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of Franklin County (Columbus) and gains some conservative rural counties in the southern portion of the state. The district becomes centered around the rural southern part of the state. He should face no primary challenge unless Jean Schmidt (R) decides to run here because many of the counties in her current district were added to the 7th. She probably will not run though because her home is in the 2nd district.

Ohio's 8th Congressional District Vacant (John Boehner (R)?) Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 122,984 35.4%, McCain 217,843 62.7%
Average: Dem 39.0%, Rep 61.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 36%, McCain 62%
Demographics 18+: 94.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 8th district becomes more rural as it gains counties along Ohio's western border and extends further into the central part of the state. Although Boehner does not live in the district, he may run here because it contains large portions of his current district with Preble, Butler and Miami Counties. The new counties the 8th district are both from the current 4th and 5th districts but it is unlikely Jordan or Latta would want to challenge Boehner in a primary because Boehner is the speaker.

Toledo area
Ohio's 9th Congressional District Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Bob Latta (R) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 210,399 58.6%, McCain 142,849 39.8%
Average: Dem 60.7%, Rep 39.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 4.4% Hispanic, 11.2% African American, 81.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The new 9th district the Republicans in the Ohio Legislature drew combines Toledo with inner city Cleveland. This does not combine communities of interest because Toledo is an industrial area that looks toward Detroit and auto manufacturing while Cleveland focuses more around steel. This 9th district on this map though combines communities of interest instead of combining urban areas in western and eastern Ohio. Those communities of interest are Toledo and the nearby small cities and farming areas in western Ohio such as Bowling Green. Although the majority of the district's population is in Kaptur's current district, she gains Bowling Green which is where Latta lives. If Latta challenges Kaptur, Kaptur should win because she has represented parts of the district since the early 1980s and the district has a strong Democratic lean. Latta will probably want a safer district so he may run in the 4th district which also contains part of his current district.

Cleveland area
Ohio's 10th Congressional District Dennis Kucinich (D) DeepPink
Presidential Data: Obama 199,469 54.8%, McCain 159,398 43.8%
Average: Dem 60.3%, Rep 39.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Demographics 18+: 4.0% African American, 4.9% Hispanic, 87.8% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The map of Ohio that the Republicans drew for the 10th district creates a district that combines Cleveland's western suburbs with Canton and Amish country. The Cleveland suburbs are urban and are focused around Cleveland, not Canton or rural Amish. That is why I drew a 10th district that combines Cleveland's western suburbs, including those in Lorain County. Anyway, the district becomes more Republican as it loses large parts of Cleveland and gains Republican leaning suburbs in southern Cuyahoga County. Although this district leans Democratic, it may not be Democratic enough to elect a far left Democrat such as Kucinich but it could elect a more moderate Democrat such as Betty Sutton. This district is trending Republican though so at the end of the decade, Republicans may be very competitive here.

Ohio's 11th Congressional District Marcia Fudge (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 300,111 81.5%, McCain 65,061 17.7%
Average: Dem 81.1%, Rep 18.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 14%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 42.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

I am aware that combining Akron and Cleveland does not represent communities of interest. I have to respect the Voting Rights Act though and draw one African American VAP majority district in the area surrounding Cleveland. This district combines African Americans in Cleveland's east side and in Akron. Fudge should have no trouble in the general election but it is possible that a candidate from Akron may challenge her in the primary.

Columbus area

Ohio's 12th Congressional District:: Pat Tiberi (R) CornflowerBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 183,965 50.0%, McCain 179,489 48.7%
Average: Dem 48.0%, Rep 52.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Demographics 18+: 15.0% African American, 76.8% White
Status: Likely Republican

This district becomes more Republican as it loses part of Columbus's central city and becomes more suburban. It gains the suburban Blackhawk estates in southeast Franklin County. Although the district voted for Obama and is trending Democratic, voters here still vote Republican locally and Tiberi is personally popular in the district. Democrats failed to unseat him in 2006 and 2008 when his district voted 54% for Obama. In this safer district, Tiberi should win easily but if he retires, a strong Democrat will have a chance.

Ohio's 13th Congressional District Vacant
Presidential Data: Obama 191,833 54.1%, McCain 156,554 44.2%
Average: Dem 57.6%, Rep 42.4%
Old Presidential Data: N/A
Demographics 18+: 8.6% African American, 87.3% White
Status: Likely Democratic

This district combines the urban areas of Canton and Akron. On the new Ohio map, the Republicans drew districts that combined Canton and Akron with Mansfield, the Clevleand suburbs and Youngstown. Instead of diluting their voting power though, this district ensures that these areas will have a voice in the House. The district contains all of Stark County (Canton) and represents the eastern part of Summit County (Akron.) As for the candidates in the district, no incumbent currently lives here but Betty Sutton (D) may decide to run here because she lives in the 5th district which voted 49% for Obama, even though her current district and the new 13th share no territory. Also, the 54% Obama percentage gives Republicans a shot at this district in a Republican year.

Ohio's 14th Congressional District Steve LaTourette (R) Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 191,168 51.8%, McCain 172,047 46.8%
Average: Dem 56.0%, Rep 44.0%
Old Presidential Data: McCain 49%, Obama 49%
Demographics 18+: 3.5% African American, 92.2% White
Status: Lean Republican if Tourette runs, Tossup if not

The 14th congressional district does not undergo major changes. It retains most of its current territory and it becomes more Democratic as it loses conservative parts of Summit County while gaining Democratic leaning Portage County and Democratic parts of Cuyahoga County. These areas are mostly communities of interest by being in the northeastern corner of Ohio. As for the district's representation, LaTourette is very popular and moderate and won in the wave years of 2006 and 2008. If he decides to retire though, Democrats will be very competitive here and the district should trend Democratic as Democrats in Cleveland move further out into suburbs in areas such as Lake County.

Ohio's 15th Congressional District Steve Strivers (R) DarkOrange
Presidential Data: Obama 207,581 61.6%, McCain 123,762 36.7%
Average: Dem 60.9%, Rep 39.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Demographics 18+: 4.2% Hispanic, 17.2% African American, 72.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 15th congressional district  loses rural Madison and Union Counties and now is completely inside Franklin County (Columbus.) These changes help representation for communities of interest by eliminating rural parts of the district and making it centered around urban Columbus. As for the district's representation, Obama's percentage increases from 54% to 62%, eliminating any chance for Republicans. Strivers has no real option on this map because the new 15th district is too Democratic for him and Tiberi is too popular for a successful primary challenge. As for the Democrat in this district, the candidates who are planning to run in the Columbus district on the Republicans' map such as Mary Jo Kilroy (D) probably would run here.

Ohio's 16th Congressional District Tim Ryan (D) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 204,470 56.5%, McCain 149,673 41.3%
Average: Dem 70.7%, Rep 29.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 8.1% African American, 88.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The current 17th district becomes the 16th district and gains some industrial counties along the Ohio River valley while retaining the Youngstown area. This district represents communities of interest by combining industrial counties in eastern Ohio. The Youngstown area is Democratic but the Ohio River counties are more swingy so the addition of those counties bring Obama's percentage down to 57%. The Average Democrat's performance is 71% though, suggesting this area still votes heavily Democratic for local races. Although this district certainly looks Democratic enough to support Ryan, by the end of the decade, it could become more competitive if white working class voters continue to trend Republican.

Florida Fair Redistricting Part III: South Florida

This is the final of 3 posts analyzing my fair Florida redistricting proposal. My first post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-i-north.html and my 2nd post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-ii.html

South Florida

Florida's 19th Congressional District:  Frederica Wilson (D) Yellowgreen
Presidential Data: Obama 219,280 84.3%, McCain 40,719 15.7%
Old Percentage: Obama 87%, McCain 12%
Demographics: 52.9% African American, 31.3% Hispanic, 12.2% White
Demographics 18+: 50.5% African American, 32.4% Hispanic, 13.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The former 17th district retains most of its current territory, representing communities of interest by representing heavily African American communities in northern Miami Dade and southern Broward Counties. This district also stays west of Route 1. Although the district becomes a few points more Republican due to gaining a few heavily Cuban precincts, the 19th district is heavily Democratic and with the 84.3% Obama percentage, it is by far the most Democratic district in Florida.

Miami Area

Florida's 20th Congressional District: Illeana Ros Lehtinen (R) Pink
Presidential Data: Obama 131,823 58.0%, McCain 95,439 42.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 51%, McCain 49%
Demographics: 13.4% African American, 62.0% Hispanic, 22.0% White
Demographics 18+: 12.0% African American, 62.5% Hispanic, 23.0% White
Status: Lean Democratic if Lehtinen runs, Likely Democratic if not

This district at first appears Democratic because its 58% Obama percentage is not far from the 61% Obama in the 11th district which I listed as Safe Democratic. Although the 20th district is certainly trending Democratic as Cubans become less staunchly Republican and non Cuban Hispanics whom lean Democratic move into the Miami area, the 20th district may stay in Republican hands because Ros Lehinten is a popular and moderate incumbent. A strong Democratic candidate still should though as I increased the Obama percentage in the district from 51% to 58%. I removed the Republican leaning areas around Coral Gables while adding some heavily Democratic areas around Cutler Bay and Homestead. Ros Lehtinen is unfamiliar to the voters in those areas and although she is entrenched in parts of her current district, the new district with its 58% Obama percentage should be enough to unseat her or encourage her to primary a weak incumbent such as David Riveria (R) in the 27th district. As for communities of interest, the 20th district represents similar communities by representing all of Miami Dade's coastal areas south of Miami Beach.

Broward County


Florida's 21st Congressional District: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) vs. Allen West (R) Maroon
Presidential Data: Obama 198,837 67.3%, McCain 96,556 32.7%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 24.8% African American, 23.8% Hispanic, 45.4% White
Demographics 18+: 22.7% African American, 22.8% Hispanic, 48.9% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The new 21st district is a combination of the current 19th, 20th and 23rd districts. Schultz lives here but most of her current district is in the new 25th so she may move and run there. The 21st district contains most of inland Broward County with Sunrise and Coral Springs but also contains Pompono Beach. Allen West's home of Plantation is in the 21st district but West is a far right teabagger who would not fare well in a 67% Obama district like this one.

Palm Beach County

Florida's 22nd Congressional District: Tom Rooney (R) Sienna
Presidential Data: Obama 170,214 60.6%, McCain 110,618 39.4%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 18.8% African American, 24.1% Hispanic, 52.8% White
Demographics 18+: 16.7% African American, 22.1% Hispanic, 57.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Tom Rooney (R) who represents the current 16th district which spans from Port Charlotte to a few Palm Beach suburbs lives in Tequesta which is in the district. Besides Teqeusta and Wellington, the new 22nd and current 16th districts share no areas so Rooney will probably not run in the 22nd district and run in the new 26th instead which contains large portions of his current district. Also, the 61% Obama percentage in the 22nd district will fend off any strong Republican challengers. As for Democrats, West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel (D) who is currently challenging Allen West (R) in the current 22nd district may decide  to run here.

Florida's 23rd Congressional District (formerly the 21st Congressional District:) Mario Diaz-Balart (R) Aquamarine
Presidential Data: Obama 120,623, 51.7%, McCain 112,877 48.3%
Old Percentage: Obama 49%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 7.6% African American, 73.4% Hispanic, 15.2% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 75.1% Hispanic, 14.3% White
Status: Toss Up

Diaz-Balart's district becomes a point more Democratic as it loses some heavily Cuban areas near Westchester and gains a larger portion of Democratic leaning Pembroke Pines. Although Obama won the district by 3 points, the district is more Republican than the numbers suggest because young Cubans swung heavily toward Obama in 2008. Diaz-Balart may be vulnerable here though because he was elected here in 2010 so voters are not familiar to him. Also, if Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez (D) runs, he will have a strong chance to win because he can keep Republican margins low in Hialeah so a Democratic lead in Broward County will offset the Republican precincts in Miami Dade County.

Florida's 24th Congressional District: (formerly the 19th district) Ted Deutch (D) Indigo
Presidential Data: Obama 207,531 61.9%, McCain 127,567 38.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 65%, McCain 34%
Demographics: 13.2% African American, 13.0% Hispanic, 69.3% White
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 11.7% Hispanic, 73.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 24th district (formerly the 19th district)  becomes more compact as it represents southern Palm Beach County and northern Broward County. These changes make the 24th district a few points more Republican as it loses all of West Palm Beach and gains some affluent and Republican leaning precincts in Delray Beach, Deerfield Beach and Boca Raton. Those Republican areas were formerly in the 22nd District but I eliminated the district because it did not combine communities of interest. It represents communities from Jupiter in northern Palm Beach County to Davie in southern Broward County. Instead, my map has districts that represent a certain area such as having the 24th district represent southern Palm Beach and northern Broward Counties. Anyway, the changes in this district should not endanger Deutch because Obama won 62% here.

Florida's 25th Congressional District: (formerly the 20th district) Vacant (Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) ?)
Presidential Data: Obama 190,438 66.8%, McCain 94,592 33.2%
Old Percentage: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Demographics: 20.9% African American, 27.2% Hispanic, 48.0% White
Demographics 18+: 18.5% African American, 27.1% Hispanic, 50.7% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Although the 20th district's representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) does not live in this district, she may run here because the 25th district contains most of her current district. The only changes are that the 25th district goes less inland by losing Sunrise and Plantation while gaining all of Fort Lauderdale, including some heavily Democratic and African American precincts there. These changes boost the Democratic performance to 67% in this already safely Democratic district.

Florida's 26th Congressional District
Florida's 26th Congressional District Vacant (Tom Rooney (R) ?) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 159,098 50.1%, McCain 158,771 49.9%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 15.1% African American, 14.9% Hispanic, 66.7% White
Demographics 18+: 13.5% African American, 12.6% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Status: Lean Republican

This district represents the Florida coast between Melbourne and Palm Beach,  representing Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin Counties. It also contains portions of Brevard and Palm Beach Counties. Tom Rooney may run here although I moved his home, Tequesta in Palm Beach County out of the district. Also,  added Democratic neighborhoods in St. Lucie County and heavily Democratic Belle Glades in Palm Beach County. Although these changes make the district more Democratic, the district still has a slight Republican lean. In a strong Democratic year though, this district should be Democratic enough to flip Democratic like the current Florida 8th and 24th congressional districts did in 2008. They voted 51% and 48% for Obama respectively, close to the 50% Obama in the new 26th district.

Florida's 27th Congressional District David Riveria (R) Springgreen
Presidential Data: Obama 118,202 43.6%, McCain 152,818 56.4%
Old Percentage: Obama 49%, McCain 50%
Demographics: (formerly the 25th) 77.8% Hispanic, 16.3% White
Demographics 18+: 78.4% Hispanic, 15.6% White
Status: Safe Republican

The former 25th congressional district becomes more Republican despite losing all of heavily Republican Collier County. The reason is that in order to keep communities together, the 27th district stays on the west side of Highway 1 which has more Republican precincts than Highway 1's eastern side. Also, the 27th district loses all of Democratic Homestead while gaining some heavily Republican precincts in western Miami. These changes push the Republican percentage to 56% McCain, making this district the most Republican district in Miami County and the Gold Coast.

Overall, my Florida map undid many of the gerrymandered districts the current Florida map has. I created two districts centered around Orlando instead of having a district share Orlando and Jacksonville while I created a Jacksonville centered district. Also, the map dismantled the 23rd Congressional District which combined Palm Beach neighborhoods with Miramar on the Miami Dade County border. Although the 23rd district was a VRA district, I had to dismantle it and combine it into the 21st, 22nd, 24th and 25th districts because the 23rd district violated communities of interest and I could not create a majority African American district stretching from Fort Lauderdale to West Palm Beach. As for the partisanship of the new districts, there are 7 Safe Democratic seats, 3 Likely Democratic seats, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 2 Toss Up seats, 3 Lean Republican seats, 1 Likely Republican and 10 Safe Republican seats. Although Republicans still have an edge with 14 Republican seats compared to 11 Democratic ones and 2 Toss Ups, Florida's Democratic areas are in a few heavily Democratic areas while Florida's Republican areas are more spread out so it is easier to draw Republican districts. Also, 3 of Florida's Republican districts are lean Republican so in a Democratic year, Democrats could control as many as 16 of Florida's congressional districts while in 2008, the Democrats controlled only ten out of Florida's 25 districts. Anyway, Florida's Republican legislature may try to combine communities of interest while not creating new opportunities for Democrats but this map creates a real fair map for Florida where both parties are at a roughly equal position and will fairly represent Florida's constituents.

Florida Fair Redistricting Part II: Central Florida

This is the 2nd post out of 3 posts analyzing fair redistricting in Florida. Here is my 1st post: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-i-north.html

Tampa Area

Florida's 10th Congressional District Bill Young (R) Deepink
Presidential Data: Obama 188,941 56.4%, McCain 146,119 43.6%
Old Percentage: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Demographics: 12.3% African American, 8.3% Hispanic, 74.0% White
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 7.1% Hispanic, 77.8% White
Status: Likely Republican if Bill Young runs, Likely Democratic if not

The 10th district becomes more Democratic as it adds Democratic parts of St. Petersburg that were previously in the 11th district. The current 11th district jumped across Tampa Bay to grab Democratic parts of St. Petersburg but the 10th now combines communities of interest by representing all of Pinellas County except for the northern part. As for the district's representative, Bill Young (R) who is 80 years old has represented the area since 1971 and has won reelection easily in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008. The addition of Democratic areas should not be enough to unseat him but they may prompt him to retire. If he retires, this seat should be competitive but the district's 56% Obama percentage should give the Democrats an advantage.

Florida's 11th Congressional District Kathy Castor (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 169,053 61.2%, McCain 107,391 38.8%
Old Percentage: Obama 66%, McCain 33%
Demographics: 20.5% African American, 28.2% Hispanic, 45.8% White
Demographics 18+: 18.6% African American, 26.6% Hispanic, 49.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 11th district becomes more compact as it loses the string connecting it to Democratic neighborhoods in Bradenton and St. Petersburg. The 11th district now contains Tampa Bay and its close in suburbs. These changes make the 11th district more Republican but Hillsborough County's Democratic trend and Obama's 61% in the district should keep Castor safe from a Republican challenge.

I-4 Corridor

Florida's 12th Congressional District Dennis Ross (R) Cornflower Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 129,100 45.5%, McCain 154,360 54.5%
Old Percentage: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Demographics: 13.1% African American, 18.3% Hispanic, 65.0% White
Demographics 18+: 12.0% African American, 15.4% Hispanic, 69.5% White
Status: Likely Republican

Ross receives a safer district under this plan. He gains all of Republican leaning Polk County while losing marginal Tampa suburbs including Brandon and Riverview. Although many of the districts on this plan become more favorable to Democrats, this district becomes safer for Republicans. If the Hispanic growth continues in Polk County though, Democrats may have a shot here soon.

Florida's 13th Congressional District Vern Buchanan (R) Darksalmon
Presidential Data: Obama 167,628 48.2%, McCain 179,797 51.8%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 6.6% African American, 12.3% Hispanic, 78.1% White
Demographics 18+: 5.5% African American, 9.8% Hispanic, 82.2% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the 13th district becomes a tad more Democratic with the loss of Republican leaning De Soto and Hardee Counties with the addition of Democratic areas in Bradenton, Buchanan should win here. He is a popular incumbent with a large warchest, winning in the Democratic wave years of 2006 and 2008. He also performed strongly in 2010, winning with 69% of the vote.

Florida's 14th Congressional District  Vacant Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 155,609 58.5%, McCain 110,466 41.5%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 40.0% Hispanic, 43.5% White
Demographics 18+: 8.4% African American, 37.6% Hispanic, 46.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic

Under the current lines, the Orlando area is unfairly represented because there is no district completely within its metropolitan area. Districts such as the 3rd and 8th represent Orlando but also represent other portions of the state such as Jacksonville and Ocala. The 14th district though completely represents the Orlando metropolitan area, containing suburban Osceola County and part of Orange County. The district will probably elect a white representative but a Hispanic candidate could win soon because of the district's fast growing Hispanic population. The district should also elect a Democrat because of the 58.5% Obama percentage.

Florida's 15th Congressional District  Vacant Dark Orange
Presidential Data: Obama 173,124 61.1%, McCain 110,177 38.9%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 26.6% African American, 21.4% Hispanic, 45.5% White
Demographics 18+: 24.2% African American, 20.0% Hispanic, 49.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The orange colored district is located entirely within Orange County, representing all of Orlando and many of its close in suburbs. By representing the center of the Orlando metropolitan area, the district is strongly Democratic and is trending more Democratic as the Hispanic population continues to grow.

Florida's 16th Congressional District Bill Posey (R) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 163,639 45.0%, McCain 200,245 55.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 48%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 8.2% African American, 10.3% Hispanic, 76.6% White
Demographics 18+: 7.5% African American, 9.1% Hispanic, 79.2% White
Status: Safe Republican

Posey's district becomes safer for him as it loses all of Democratic leaning Osceola and Orange Counties. The district also represents more communities of interest as it combines almost all of Brevard County in one district instead of splitting in half between the 15th and 24th districts. Posey's district also gains part of Republican leaning Seminole County. Posey was safe in a 51% McCain district so he should have no problems winning in a 55% McCain one.

Florida West Coast

Florida's 17th Congressional District Connie Mack IV (R) DarkSlateBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 127,295 40.9%, McCain 183,918 59.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 42%, McCain 57%
Demographics: 6.1% African American, 21.5% Hispanic, 69.7% White
Demographics 18+: 5.0% African American, 17.9% Hispanic, 74.9% White
Status: Safe Republican

Mack's district was already the most Republican district south of the I-4 corridor at 57% McCain but with the district's changes, it becomes even more Republican at 59% McCain. Mack's district loses all of Charlotte County as well as some Democratic neighborhoods in Fort Myers. The 17th district also gains all of heavily Republican and fast growing Collier County. These changes shift Mack's district further south along Florida's west coast because due to population growth, Florida's west coast is gaining a new district.

Florida's 18th Congressional District Vacant (Tom Rooney (R) ?) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 131,583 45.8%, McCain 155,823 54.2%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 8.7% African American, 18.6% Hispanic, 69.8% White
Demographics 18+: 7.8% African American, 15.6% Hispanic, 74.3% White
Status: Safe Republican

This district is a combination of the current 13th, 14th and 16th districts. The 18th district combines more inland communities along the Florida west coast such as Fort Myers and Port Charlotte while representing some rural counties near Lake Okeechobee. Although Rooney does not live in the district, he may decide to run here because the 18th district contains parts of his old district such as Port Charlotte and the rural counties near Lake Okeechobee. Although the 18th district is less Republican than the neighboring 17th district, McCain's 54% of the vote in the 18th district should be enough to keep it safely Republican.

Florida Fair Redistricting Part I: North Florida

Florida recently passed a fair redistricting inititative and although the republicans in the Florida state legislature control the mapping process, they cannot gerrymander the districts the way they did in 2001. In 2001, the Florida Republicans drew a map aiming to elect 18 Republicans and seven Democrats to Florida's congressional districts, although the 2000 election demonstrated Florida is an evenly divided state. The Republicans also gerrymandered the state legislature so the Democrats could not win control of it and undo the damage the Republicans created for the Democrats. The Republicans were successful by maintaining control of the legislature. Their congressional gerrymander was successful too because even in 2008 when the Democrats gained the most seats in the House since 1992, the Republicans still controlled five more Florida seats than the Democrats did. Democrats undid Republican gerrymanders in Pennsylvania and Ohio but not Florida. In 2010, Republicans won not only the legislature but the Governorship too but Florida's voters passed an amendment that prevented the legislature from gerrymandering for political purposes. The legislature also had to incorporate communities of interest when they redistricted. For example, a district could not contain Orlando and Jacksonville. Republicans may try to draw districts to their advantage while incorporating communities of interest but this map I drew is a real fair map for Florida. This post examines the first 9 districts in Florida, the next post will examine the next 9 districts and the last post will examine the last 9.
Florida's current congressional districts: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=FL

North Florida

Florida's 1st Congressional District: Jeff Miller (R) Blue
Obama 115,041 32.4%, McCain 240,363 67.6%
Old Percentage: McCain 67%, Obama 32%
Demographics: 13.6% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 75.1% White
Demographics 18+: 12.5% African American, 4.5% Hispanic, 77.6% White
Status: Safe Republican

Although the fair redistricting initiative will change the borders of many districts, this one retains similar lines. The 1st loses Washington County to keep population deviation equal but besides this change, the 1st remains the same to its current form. It is still safe for Miller and the 2nd most Republican district in Florida on my map.

Florida's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Southerland (R) Green
Obama 162,690 47.6%, McCain 178,961 52.4%
Old Percentage: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics: 24.3% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 66.2% White
Demographics 18+: 23.3% African American, 4.8% Hispanic, 68.2% White
Status: Lean Republican

Although McCain won this district, many of these counties such as Liberty and Franklin County vote Democratic at a local level. Allen Boyd (D) represented this district until 2010 and Bill McBride (D) carried it strongly, despite losing by 13 points statewide to Jeb Bush (R). This map helps strengthen the Democrats' chances here by adding part of traditionally Democratic Madison County and removing more conservative counties such as Dixie, Suwanee and Lafayette. Boyd is currently working with Twenty First Century Group, a lobbying firm so he may want to stay with his new job. State Senator Alfred Lawson Jr. though may run under these more favorable lines.

Florida's 3rd Congressional District: Corrine Brown (D) Purple
Obama 172,246 53.0%, McCain 152,527 47.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 73%, McCain 27%
Demographics: 33.9% African American, 4.2% Asian, 7.7% Hispanic, 51.5% White
Demographics 18+: 31.3% African American, 4.3% Asian, 7.0% Hispanic, 55.5% White
Status: Lean Democratic

Brown's current district combines African American neighborhoods in Jacksonville, Gainesville and Orlando. Although the Voting Rights Act requires that African American majority districts should be drawn, it did not ask for drawing extremely convoluted districts that combine communities with no common interests. Districts drawn that way are considered "racial gerrymanders" and are unconstitutional. If the 3rd district is considered a racial gerrymander, it will be dismantled. The 3rd district is now centered around the Jacksonville area, making it more Republican but Obama won the district by six points. This creates an opportunity for Republicans but Brown should probably win.

Florida's 4th Congressional District: Ander Crenshaw (R) Red
Obama 110,813 31.3%, McCain 243,349 68.7%
Old Percentage: Obama 37%, McCain 62%
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 5.9% Hispanic, 80.6% White
Demographics 18+: 8.3% African American, 5.2% Hispanic, 82.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

Crenshaw already had a safe district that voted 62% for McCain but the new lines give a 69% McCain district, the most Republican district in Florida under this map. The 4th district loses eastern Jacksonville to the 3rd district and loses the string out to Tallahassee to the 2nd and 6th district. The 4th district now represents the fast growing and heavily Republican Jacksonville suburbs in Clay, Nassau and St. Johns Counties as well as the conservative rural counties of Bradford, Union and Columbia. By combining the communities of interest in the Jacksonville suburbs, the 4th district becomes more compact and more Republican.

Florida's 5th Congressional District Rich Nugent (R) Yellow
Obama 156,627 46.4%, McCain 180,722 53.6%
Old Percentage: Obama 43%, McCain 56%
Demographics: 4.1% African American, 10.2% Hispanic, 82.2% White
Demographics 18+: 3.6% African American, 8.6% Hispanic, 84.9% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 5th district was one of the fastest growing districts in Florida so it becomes more compact. It loses the conservative areas near the Villages and retains the fast growing coastal counties of Citrus, Hernando and Pasco. These counties are more swingy than the Villages area (Pasco and Hernando Counties voted for Gore.) McCain won all the counties in this district though so Nugent should not have difficulties winning reelection.

Florida's 6th Congressional District Cliff Stearns (R) Teal
Obama 155,210 47.9%, McCain 169,148 52.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 42%, McCain 57%
Demographics: 17.2% African American, 9.1% Hispanic, 69.1% White
Demographics 18+: 15.7% African American, 8.1% Hispanic, 72.0% White
Status: Lean Republican

The current 6th district combines Jacksonville suburbs with Gainesville and the Villages Area. I altered the 6th district so it would contain north central rural Florida and its small cities including Gainesville and Ocala. I removed all the Jacksonville suburbs and the Villages Area while adding more of Marion County (Ocala) and some rural counties such as Hamilton and Suwanee which the 2nd and 4th districts formerly represented. I also moved all of Gainesville into the 6th district because it was unfairly split between the 6th and the 3rd, undermining its power to unite and elect a representative. Stearns does not live in the new 6th district, he lives in the new 4th district but I expect him to run here because the 6th district contains most of his old territory. The district voted only 52% for McCain though and Stearns is not familiar with most of the rural voters. Therefore, a blue dog Democrat can win in 2012 by winning over rural voters and benefiting from Gainesville's high turnout.

Florida's 7th Congressional District: John Mica (R) Gray
Obama 178,903 53.0%, McCain 158,960 47.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics: 11.7% African American, 11.7% Hispanic, 72.6% White
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 10.0% Hispanic, 76.0% White
Status: Toss Up

Volusia County has a stronger voice now that it is united in the 7th district except for one precinct instead of being split between the 7th, 24th and 3rd districts. The 7th district also becomes more compact as it loses St. Johns County (Jacksonville suburbs) and gains all of Volusia County. The 7th district also loses most of Seminole County but retains Sanford which is a similar community with Deltona in Volusia County. With the loss of conservative St. Johns County and the addition of most of Democratic leaning Volusia County, the 7th district becomes more Democratic. Mica is a popular representative though so it will be difficult to unseat him. In a good Democratic year though, the Democrats should have a shot to unseat Mica.

Florida's 8th Congressional District: Daniel Webster (R) SlateBlue
Obama 143,874 41.5%, McCain 202,758 58.5%
Old Percentage: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Demographics: 8.6% African American, 11.2% Hispanic, 76.2% White
Demographics 18+: 7.8% African American, 9.4% Hispanic, 79.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

Currently, the 8th district combines Ocala, Orlando and the retirement communities between them. I altered the lines of the 8th district though so it contained all of Lake and Sumter Counties which contain large retirement communities. For population purposes, I added a small part of Seminole County and kept the 8th district to the left of I-4 as much as possible. Anyway, this district becomes extremely safe for Webster because it voted 59% for McCain.

Tampa Area

Florida's 9th Congressional District: Gus Bilkaris (R) Cyan
Obama 157,295 47.7%, McCain 172,265 52.3%
Old Percentage: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics: 7.1% African American, 14.8% Hispanic, 72.3% White

Demographics 18+: 6.5% African American, 12.8% Hispanic, 75.7% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 9th district undergoes minor changes as it combines the community of interest of suburban areas north and east of Tampa Bay. Although the district voted for McCain by a small margin, the district is more Republican on a local level so Bilkaris should have no trouble winning reelection. The district may become more Democratic though as Hispanics and African Americans move into parts of the 9th district such as Brandon. In 2012 though, Bilkaris should have no difficulties.