New York Fair Redistricting Map

The 2010 census results show New York losing two congressional seats. In 2000, New York also lost two congressional seats but they were both lost from Upstate New York while New York City and the suburbs lost no seats. This census, New York City will not be as lucky because growth has slowed there and New York City will lose one seat. Unlike in other solidly Democratic states such as Illinois and Maryland, Democrats do not control the redistricting trifecta. They control the Governorship and the State House but the Republicans control the State Senate 32-30. The Republicans control the State Senate due to a gerrymander that protects popular incumbents and places heavily Democratic areas into a few districts. Many Republican incumbents represent Democratic areas but they win because they are familiar with the voters. For example, Long Island leans Democratic and all of its Senate seats are represented by Republicans. The deciding race was a Democratic Buffalo Senate seat where Mark Gristiani (R) won because the Democratic incumbent had scandals and the Democrats should probably obtain the seat in 2012. Since redistricting control is split though, a compromise map is the most likely scenario with one Democratic district being eliminated and one Republican district being eliminated. Also, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) stated he wants to see a fair map. I decided to draw a fair map for New York with lines designed to protect communities of interest, not incumbents. When I drew the maps, I did not consider the homes or the needs of the districts' incumbents. Also, my map helps keep districts competitive so representatives will have to work to ensure reelection. The first district I chose to eliminate was Bob Turner's (R) 9th district which did not combine communities of interest by combining Forest Hills in Central Queens with Sheepshead Bay in Brooklyn. The second district I eliminated was Maurice Hinchey's 22nd district in Upstate New York which combined Newburgh along the Hudson River with Cornell University in Central Upstate New York. After drawing the map, I checked the partisan numbers and there are 16 Safe Democratic seats, 3 Likely Democratic seats, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 4 Tossup seats, 1 Lean Republican seat, and 2 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here is a link to the current New York maps: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NY

 New York State

Long Island

New York's 1st Congressional District: Timothy Bishop (D) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 54.6%, McCain 44.5%
Average: Dem 56.6%, Rep 43.4%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Demographics 18+: 6.3% African American, 17.9% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 1st district becomes more Democratic as it swaps Republican leaning Smithtown for heavily Democratic Brentwood and Islip. The district also loses a few precincts along the South Coast to the 3rd district which is a South Coast based district. Anyway, the 1st district combines communities of interest by keeping eastern Long Island in one district. As for Bishop, he won an extremely close race in 2010, a very Republican year in his 52% Obama district. With the district becoming a few points more Democratic though, Bishop should win in a Democratic or neutral year.

New York's 2nd Congressional District: Steve Israel (D) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 54.8%, McCain 44.4%
Average: Dem 56.4%, McCain 43.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 6.0% Asian, 14.5% Hispanic, 68.5% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 2nd district loses all of its territory on the South Coast as it becomes a more North Coast and central Long Island based district. It gains Glen Cove and Smithtown. It also gains more of Nassau County by gaining Hicksville. The 2nd district becomes more Republican too though by losing heavily Democratic Islip and Brentwood. Although the district is a point more Republican, Israel should win because he is a strong fundraiser as the DCCC chairman and he is popular.

New York's 3rd Congressional District: Peter King (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 46.5%, McCain 52.6%
Average: Dem 50.1%, Rep 49.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Demographics 18+: 8.9% Hispanic, 84.1% White
Status: Safe Republican, Lean Republican when King retires

The 3rd congressional district combines communities of interest by becoming centered on Long Island's south shore, extending from the Queens border to Patchogue in Suffolk County. The 3rd congressional district combines these Republican leaning middle class areas along the South Shore while losing its finger onto the North Shore. The district leans Republican and Peter King is extremely popular on the South Shore, winning large majorities in even the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008. King should even be stronger in this South Shore centered district. When he retires, the district may be competitive but the 52.6% McCain number will probably keep it in Republican hands.

New York's 4th Congressional District: Carolyn McCarthy (D) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 57.2%, McCain 42.1%
Average: Dem 58.4%, Rep 41.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 41%
Demographics 18+: 11.6% African American, 12.2% Asian, 15.0% Hispanic, 59.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 4th district undergoes major changes although it retains the Hempstead area. It becomes one point more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic Valley Stream and North Valley Stream to the majority African American 6th district. The 4th district also loses East Meadow to the 3rd district. To compensate for the loss of these areas, I added the Great Neck area from the current 5th district. I also added Bellaire and Glen Oaks in Queens into the district. These changes keep the Obama number at 57% which should be high enough to protect McCarthy.

New York's 5th Congressional District: Gary Ackerman (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 62.2%, McCain 36.9%
Average: Dem 66.2%, Rep 33.8%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 32.9% Asian, 16.3% Hispanic, 44.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th district loses all of its Nassau County territory and is completely located in Queens. It retains Flushing but loses heavily Hispanic Corona to the Hispanic majority 9th district. To compensate for the loss of Nassau County and Corona, the 5th district gains some territory from the current 9th district. The 5th district gains Forest Hills, Kew Gardens and Middle Village. The 5th district combines communities of interest by representing working class areas in northern Queens. It also helps break up the 9th district which places Forest Hills in the same district as Sheepshead Bay in Brooklyn. The new map though places Forest Hills with other nearby neighborhoods in Queens that have similar interests. As for the partisan composition of the district, the 62% Obama number should be enough to elect a Democrat. Bob Turner (R) who represents the 9th district should not be able to overcome the district's Democratic lean. Also, the district's 32.9% Asian population gives an Asian candidate a chance to win when Ackerman retires.

Queens/Brooklyn

New York's 6th Congressional District: Gregory Meeks (D) vs. Bob Turner (R) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 86.0%, McCain 13.7%
Average: Dem 87.0%, Rep 13.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 89%, McCain 11%
Demographics 18+: 50.2% African American, 10.8% Asian, 17.5% Hispanic, 14.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 6th district actually lost population during the 2000s and was less than 50% Black by the end of the decade so it had to gain population in order to boost the African American percentage over 50% to respect the Voting Rights Act. The 6th district adds conservative parts of the Rockaway Peninsula, gains African American areas in Valley Stream, North Valley Stream and Brooklyn in order to remain above 50% African American. Rep. Bob Turner's (R) home on the Rockaway Peninsula is added to the 6th district but I doubt he would run in an 86% Obama district. The district combines communities of interest by representing heavily African American areas in and near southern Queens. Meeks should have no trouble winning in this heavily Democratic district.

New York's 7th Congressional District: Joseph Crowley (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 82.1%, McCain 17.2%
Average: Dem 83.1%, Rep 16.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 79%, McCain 20%
Demographics 18+: 20.0% African American, 9.7% Asian, 37.8% Hispanic, 30.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th district undergoes changes as it loses the Elmhurst area and gains Astoria. These changes take Crowley's home out of the district but he will probably run here because the new 7th district contains most of his current district in the Bronx. As for communities of interest, I did not want to combine Astoria and the eastern Bronx but I had to for population reasons.

New York's 8th Congressional District Jerrold Nadler (D) SlateBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 75.4%, McCain 23.7%
Average: Dem 78.8%, Rep 21.2%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 24%
Demographics 18+: 25.4% Asian. 21.0% Hispanic, 47.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 8th district becomes more Brooklyn centered as it loses the Wall Street area and Chelsea areas. It gains Chinatown and follows the Brooklyn shore of the East River to the Queens border. This district represents communities of interest by combining mostly white areas in Brooklyn. Nadler may want more of Manhattan in this district but the district is heavily Democratic so he should win easily.

New York's 9th Congressional District: Nydia Velazquez (D) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 81.3%, McCain 18.0%
Average: Dem 83.7%, Rep 16.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 86%, McCain 13%
Demographics 18+: 20.3% Asian, 53.0% Hispanic, 18.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Nydia Velazquez's home is also moved from the 9th district but I expect her to run here because it contains most of her current district and is Hispanic majority. The 9th district is the renumbered 12th district, which loses the Bush Terminal area and gains Corona and Elmhurst in Queens. These changes increase the Hispanic 18+ population to 53% which should be high enough to protect Nydia Velazquez from a primary challenge from a non Hispanic candidate. The district also combines communities of interest by representing heavily Hispanic areas in Brooklyn and Queens.

New York's 10th Congressional District: Edolphus Towns (D) Deep Pink
Presidential Data: Obama 78.1%, McCain 21.5%
Average: Dem 81.0%, Rep 19.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 91%, McCain 9%
Demographics 18+: 50.6% African American, 11.9% Hispanic, 29.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The current 10th district lost Bedford-Stuyvesant to the 11th district. To compensate for the loss, the 10th district gains Brownsville, Marine Park and Sheepshead Bay. These changes make the district more Republican and white. Although the mostly white areas of Sheepshead Bay may not have many commonalities with heavily African American neighborhoods such as Canarsie, these areas had to be combined in order to allow the 11th district to also maintain its African American majority status. If the African American population in Brooklyn continues to drop though, Brooklyn may lose one of its two African American majority districts.

New York's 11th Congressional District: Yvette Clarke (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 88.9%, McCain 10.7%
Average: Dem 89.3%, Rep 10.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 91%, McCain 9%
Demographics 18+: 52.1% African American, 17.3% Hispanic, 23.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 11th district gains Bedford-Stuyvesant from the 10th district while losing Brownsville and East Flatbush to the 10th district. The 11th district also gains heavily Republican Borough Park but the district still remains heavily Democratic at nearly 89% Obama.

New York's 12th Congressional District: Michael Grimm (R) Cornflower Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.4%
Average: Dem 52.9%, Rep 47.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 51%
Demographics 18+: 7.6% African American, 10.2% Asian, 14.4% Hispanic, 66.3% White
Status: Tossup

The 12th district (formerly the 13th district) retains communities of interest by representing Staten Island and Brooklyn neighborhoods with large white populations but undergoes a few changes. It gains Coney Island and Brighton Beach while losing Bensonhurst to the 8th district. These changes make the 12th district two points more Democratic and Obama barely won the new district. These changes may convince Michael McMahon (D), the district's former representative to run for the seat.

Manhattan/Bronx
New York's 13th Congressional District: Carolyn Maloney (D) Dark Salmon
Presidential Data: Obama 82.0%, McCain 17.0%
Average: Dem 78.4%, Rep 21.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Demographics 18+: 13.1% Asian, 9.5% Hispanic, 71.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 13th district loses all of Astoria and represents communities of interest by representing Manhattan instead of being split between Queens and Manhattan. It represents all of lower Manhattan except for the Chinatown area up to 82nd St. and 84th St. on the Upper East Side. On the Upper West Side, the 13th district extends up to 83rd St. I wanted to combine all of the Upper West Side and the Upper East Side into the same district because they are communities of interest by mostly being populated by high income white voters. The district could not combine them all though for population reasons. Anyway, Carolyn Maloney should have no trouble winning this heavily Democratic district. She may face a primary from Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) who represents the current 8th district which represents west Manhattan up to 89th St. but he will probably run in the 8th district which lacks an incumbent and contains some of his current territory.

New York's 14th Congressional District: Charlie Rangel (D) Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 90.2%, McCain 9.1%
Average: Dem 88.2%, Rep 11.8%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 93%, McCain 6%
Demographics 18+: 22.9% African American, 35.1% Hispanic, 34.3% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 14th district (formerly the 15th district,) undergoes a few changes as it loses heavily Hispanic Washington Heights for population reasons. The 14th district gains precincts in the Upper West and East Sides extending to 82nd St. and 84th St. in the Upper East Side and 83rd St. in the Upper West Side. These changes bring the district's white population up to 34%. Rangel has ethics problems and faced a recent tough primary from New York City Councilman Adam Clayton Powell IV (D). Although the district's changes are small, they increase the white population in the district to 34% which gives a strong base for a white candidate to challenge Rangel in the primary.

New York's 15th Congressional District: Jose Serrano (D) Dark Orange
Presidential Data: Obama 94.4%, McCain 5.3%
Average: Dem 95.5%, Rep 4.5%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Demographics 18+: 26.5% African American, 66.5% Hispanic, 3.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The only change this district undergoes is the addition of heavily Hispanic Washington Heights in Manhattan. Besides this change, the district remains heavily Democratic and Hispanic.

Westchester County

New York's 16th Congressional District Eliot Engel (D) vs. Nita Lowey (D) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 70.9%, McCain 28.5%
Average: Dem 69.3%, Rep 30.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 72%, McCain 28%
Demographics 18+: 26.7% African American, 24.9% Hispanic, 41.7% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 16th district represents communities of interest by combining northern parts of the Bronx such as Riverdale with southern Westchester County suburbs such as Yonkers and New Rochelle. The 16th district does combine the homes of incumbent Eliot Engel (D) of the 17th district and Nita Lowey (D) of the 18th district. The new 17th district representing Rockland and north Westchester Counties though leans Democratic and is open so one of the incumbents may decide to run there. More of Lowey's territory is in the new 17th district than Engel's so she may run there.

New York's 17th Congressional District: Vacant Dark Slate Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 58.6%, McCain 40.6%
Average: Dem 60.2%, Rep 39.8%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 38%
Demographics 18+: 9.1% African American, 15.3% Hispanic, 68.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 17th district combines communities of interest by combining Rockland County and northern Westchester County which are connected by the Tappan Zee Bridge. The district represents upscale suburbs on both sides of the Hudson. Nita Lowey (D) may decide to run here to avoid a primary challenge with Eliot Engel (D) in the 16th district. The district voted almost 59% for Obama which should be high enough to protect her against a strong Republican candidate. Rockland County is trending Republican though so the district may become more competitive but Westchester County is also trending Democratic.

Upstate New York
New York's 18th Congressional District: Nan Hayworth (R) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 52.5%, McCain 46.4%
Average: Dem 54.9%, McCain 45.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Demographics 18+: 9.0% African American, 14.4% Hispanic, 72.1% White
Status: Tossup

Although the district loses most of Westchester County and shifts north, it becomes 3 points more Democratic by gaining Newburgh and some precincts in Democratic Ulster County. The district also continues to combine communities of interest by representing small cities and rural areas along the mid Hudson Valley. The current 22nd district combined Newburgh with Cornell University in central New York so the new 18th district gains it and helps unite the Hudson River communities. The district's slight shift to the Democrats makes this district more competitive and it could shift to the Democrats in a Democratic year.

New York's 19th Congressional District: Chris Gibson (R) Yellow Green
Presidential Data: Obama 53.3%, McCain 45.1%
Average: Dem 54.1%, Rep 45.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Demographics 18+: 88.3% White
Status: Tossup

Previously, the Catskills were split between the 22nd and 20th districts but this map unites the Catskills into the 19th district which also represents rural communities along the Hudson Valley. The district becomes a few points more Democratic with the addition of Ulster County along the Hudson River. The district also retains communities on the Upper Hudson such as part of Warren County where former Rep. Scott Warren (D) lives. He lost to Chris Gibson in 2010 so he may seek a rematch under lines a couple of points more Democratic. The 53% Obama number makes this district a swing district that should swing Democratic in a Democratic year and Republican in a Republican year. It is possible Maurice Hinchey (D) will run here because his home of Saugerties of Ulster County is in this district. He may choose the more Democratic 21st district instead though.

New York's 20th Congressional District: Paul Tonko (D) Pink
Presidential Data: Obama 58.2%, McCain 40.0%
Average: Dem 59.3%, Rep 40.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Demographics 18+: 7.6% African American, 83.2% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 20th district gains most of Saratoga County but remains Democratic leaning and centered around the Albany metropolitan area. Paul Tonko should have no trouble winning here.

West Upstate New York

New York's 21st Congressional District: Ann Marie Buerkle (R) Maroon
Presidential Data: Obama 59.7%, McCain 38.5%
Average: Dem 60.2%, Rep 39.8%
Old Presidential Data: (formerly the 25th) Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 84.2% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 21st district represents cities in Central New York by combining Auburn, Syracuse and Ithaca. The 21st also loses more rural areas such as Wayne County. These changes make the 21st district a few points more Democratic. The Democratic shift will endanger Buerkle because she won by only 0.3% in 2010 against Rep. Dan Maffei (D) and the district has added new Democratic territory. Dan Maffei may challenge Buerkle and with the district's new Democratic territory, he should win.

New York's 22nd Congressional District: Bill Owens (D) Sienna
Presidential Data: Obama 50.9%, McCain 47.4%
Average: Dem 53.7%, Rep 46.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Demographics 18+: 92.0% White
Status: Tossup

Due to low population growth, the 22nd district needs to expand. It becomes a bit more Republican as it gains Republican leaning Montgomery County and parts of Republican leaning Oneida and Herkimer Counties. Bill Owens faced a strong challenge last year so he will probably face another difficult race in 2012. The northern New York rural counties Bill Owens represent though are trending Democratic, especially the counties on the Vermont border so Owens should slowly become safer.

New York's 23rd Congressional District: Richard Hanna (R) Aquamarine
Presidential Data: Obama 49.3%, McCain 48.8%
Average: Dem 50.9%, Rep 49.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 48%
Demographics 18+: 90.3% White
Status: Lean Republican

The 23rd district represents more rural areas in Upstate New York and the small cities of Rome, Utica and Binghamton. Although Obama barely won the district, the district should lean Republican because the area usually votes Republican for local offices. In a Democratic year though, this district could become competitive.

New York's 24th Congressional District: Tom Reed (R) Indigo
Presidential Data: Obama 45.3%, McCain 53.2%
Average: Dem 46.3%, Rep 53.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 48%, McCain 51%
Demographics 18+: 93.4% White
Status: Safe Republican

Instead of combining Rochester suburbs with rural counties on the Pennsylvania border, Tom Reed's district now combines rural counties on the Pennsylvania border with other rural counties in west Upstate New York. Also, the district becomes a couple of points more Republican, keeping it safe for Tom Reed.

New York's 25th Congressional District: Louise Slaughter (D) Pale Violet Red
Presidential Data: Obama 58.6%, McCain 40.1%
Average: Dem 59.4%, Rep 40.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 30%
Demographics 18+: 13.2% African American, 76.0% White
Status: Likely Democratic

Instead of dividing Monroe County (Rochester) into four districts, it is divided into two districts with the 25th district being located entirely within Monroe County. The 25th district represents Rochester and its suburbs. Rep. Louise Slaughter's district currently combines inner city Buffalo and Rochester but those cities are unique and need different representatives to effectively represent their interests so I split them into different districts. Louise Slaughter will probably run here because her home is in the 25th district. Her district has become more Republican but the 58.6% Obama number should be strong enough to protect her. Also, it should help a Democrat win this district if she retires but in a Republican year, Republicans could run a competitive campaign.

Buffalo area

New York's 26th Congressional District: Kathy Hochul (D) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 52.6%, McCain 45.8%
Average: Dem 48.8%, Rep 51.2%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 52%
Demographics 18+: 8.8% African American, 84.6% White
Status: Lean Democratic

The 26th district resembles former Rep. John LaFalce's (D) district in the 1990s as it gains all of Niagara County and Democratic leaning northern Erie County. These changes boost the Obama numbers in the district from 46% to 52.6%, strengthening Hochul although Republicans should be very competitive here in a Republican year. Hochul is a strong campaigner though so the Republicans should not underestimate her.

New York's 27th Congressional District: Brian Higgins (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 55.6%, McCain 42.7%
Average: Dem 51.0%, Rep 49.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 44%
Demographics 18+: 9.7% African American, 83.4% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The 27th district combines the southern part of the Buffalo area. It also becomes a bit more Democratic as it gains more of inner city Buffalo. Higgins already seemed safe in this district due to his strong performance in 2010 and he becomes even safer. Although the Democratic average suggests this district is closely divided, the reason the Republican average percentage is high is that 2010 Gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino (R) overperformed in Erie County (his home area) and increased Republican turnout.

New Jersey Fair Redistricting

New Jersey is one of the few states with a bipartisan redistricting commission. This means that even if one party holds the redistricting trifecta (Governorship and both houses of the legislature,) both parties will have a voice when New Jersey's state legislature and congressional lines are redrawn. At a first glance, a bipartisan commission suggests that the commission will draw a fair map that creates competitive districts that give opportunities for Democrats and Republicans to win. Also, a bipartisan commission would suggest a map with districts that combine communities of interest. The 2002 map that the commission drew though failed to create competitive districts that combined enough communities of interest. There were 13 congressional seats during the 2000s in New Jersey. During the 2000s, only one seat changed hands. In 2008, John Adler (D) gained the 3rd congressional seat for the Democrats and in 2010, Jon Runyan (R) returned the seat to the Republicans. This seat does not combine communities of interest though. The 3rd district combines Cherry Hill, a suburb close to Philadelphia with Toms River, a community on the central Jersey Shore. In my map's new 3rd district, it represents urban areas along the Delaware River instead of crossing the state to connect two different suburban areas connected only by a few roads crossing the rural Pine Barrens. Also, this map creates more competitive districts by making the 7th district more competitive by having Obama win it with 54% but the Republicans winning the district's average. Also, Republicans perform well in local races in New Jersey so they will have a strong shot at a 54% Obama district. Overall, the map should be 8-3-1 Democrats compared to the current 7-6 Democratic delegation. Anyway, here is a link to the current maps: http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/printableViewer-cd.html?imgF=images/preview/congdist/pagecgd112_nj.gif&imgW=750&imgH=452

Statewide
New Jersey's 1st Congressional District Rob Andrews (D) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 193,498 63.9%, McCain 109,476 36.1%
Average: Dem 61.2%, Rep 38.8%
Demographics 18+: 15.3% African American, 9.8% Hispanic, 69.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 34%
Status: Safe Democratic

Although I made major changes to some district such as the 3rd and 7th, the 1st district undergoes very minor changes. It does gain Republican leaning areas in western Gloucester County and part of Cherry Hill while losing all of its Burlington County precincts. These changes make the 1st district a point more Republican. It is still strongly Democratic at nearly 64% Obama so Andrews should have no trouble winning reelection. Also, the district combines communities of interest by combining the Philadelphia suburbs in Camden and Gloucester Counties.

New Jersey South

New Jersey's 2nd Congressional District Frank LoBiondo (R) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 156,149 52.8%, McCain 139,636 47.2%
Average: Dem 51.3%, Rep 48.7%
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 12.3% Hispanic,
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Status: Safe Republican with LoBiondo, Tossup if he retires

The 2nd district voted 53% for Obama and this number suggests the district is very competitive. The opposite is the case though because LoBiondo is moderate and extremely popular. He wins endorsements from many environmental groups in most of his races. Even in the heavily Democratic years of 2006 and 2008, he won easily despite Obama's narrow win here. The district's changes help LoBiondo a bit too by adding part of heavily Republican Ocean County along the shore. The district also does not undergo major changes so LoBiondo will continue to be elected by running in territory with familiar voters. If LoBiondo retires though, this district should become very competitive. It also combines communities of interest though by representing the combination of small cities, rural farmland and beach areas in southern Jersey.

New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District: Jon Runyan (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 187,899 60.7%, McCain 121,663 39.3%
Average: Dem 56.1%, Rep 43.9%
Demographics 18+: 15.6% African American, 6.3% Asian, 9.5% Hispanic, 66.8% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 3rd district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Ocean County. I removed Ocean County from the district because Ocean County is a Jersey Shore county filled with retirees and it is connected by only two roads to the Burlington County part of the district. The 3rd district now represents communities of interest by combining urban areas along the Delaware River by representing Willingboro, Burlington and Trenton. These changes boost the Obama numbers to around 60%. Runyan won by 3 points in 2010, a very Republican year and his entire margin came from Ocean County and he lost the Burlington and Camden County portions of the district. With the addition of heavily Democratic Trenton, Runyan will probably lose reelection. Rush Holt (D) may decide to run here because this district is safer than his other option, the 7th congressional district.

New Jersey's 4th Congressional District: Chris Smith (R) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 125,322 42.1%, McCain 172,426 57.9%
Average: Rep 41.8%, Dem 58.2%
Demographics 18+: 7.4% Hispanic, 85.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
Status: Safe Republican

The 4th district represents more communities of interest and becomes more Republican as it loses all of Mercer and Burlington Counties. It gains more of Monmouth and Ocean Counties. It extends south in Ocean County to gain all of Silverton and Toms River. In Monmouth County, it extends north to gain Republican leaning Lincroft and Tinton Falls. The 4th district also loses a few precincts in Carmerville to the 6th district. These changes bring the McCain percentage up to nearly 58%, making it the most Republican district in the state. Chris Smith already had an easy time winning reelection here but the new district should make winning easier.

North New Jersey
New Jersey's 5th Congressional District: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 172,562 57.4%, McCain 128,175 42.6%
Average: Dem 55.0%, Rep 45.0%
Demographics 18+: 10.6% African American, 15.4% Asian, 13.6% Hispanic, 58.9% White
Old Presidential Data: N/A
Status: Likely Democratic

This map eliminates both the current 5th district (which represents Sussex, Warren and north Bergen Counties,) and the 7th district (which represents parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Union and Middlesex Counties,) so I created the new 5th district. Most of its territory is from the current 11th and 7th districts. It takes parts of eastern Morris County from the 11th district while representing parts of Middlesex and Union Counties formerly in the 7th district. Both the 11th and 7th districts lean Republican but the 5th district becomes more Democratic by gaining Democratic areas too such as Rahway from the 10th district and Plainfield from the 6th district. The 5th district's goal is to combine communities of interest in Middlesex, Union and Morris Counties. The current map pairs Edison in Middlesex County with the Pennsylvania border in Hunterdon County. The new 5th district though represents suburban communities of interest and combines swing areas such as Westfield with nearby Democratic areas such as Plainfield instead of separating them into districts designed to protect incumbents. As for the politics of the 5th district, Frelinghuysen's home of Harding in Morris County is in the district. He will probably not run here because of the district's 57.4% Obama number. Also, he is not familiar to the voters in Union and Middlesex Counties. A moderate Republican such as Tom Kean Jr. (R) who lives in Westfield could pose a strong challenge but the district's Democratic lean should carry the Democrats to victory here.

New Jersey's 6th Congressional District: Frank Pallone (D) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 165,067 56.9%, McCain 124,975 43.1%
Average: Dem 55.7%, Rep 44.3%
Demographics 18+: 9.1% African American, 9.5% Asian, 16.8% Hispanic, 63.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Likely Democratic

The 6th district undergoes a few changes. It loses all of Somerset County, all of Edison and its finger into Plainfield in order to combine more communities of interest. The district becomes more centered in Middlesex County as it gains Perth Amboy, East Brunswick and Milltown. Perth Amboy formerly was in the 13th district which combined Perth Amboy with North Bergen in Hudson County in order to create a Hispanic majority district. It is impossible to create a district with a Hispanic majority that also has Hispanics as the majority of the citizen voting population so I had to dismantle the Hispanic majority district. Also, a minority majority district cannot be created if the minority population in a certain area is not large enough for one and the district will have to have contorted lines to become a minority majority district. As for the 6th district, these changes bring the Obama percentage down from 60% to 57%. Although there is an argument that the more urbanized parts of  Monmouth and Middlesex Counties that this district combines are not communities of interest, I had to combine them for population reasons. As for the district's representation, the 57% Obama number should not hurt Pallone.

New Jersey's 7th Congressional District: Leonard Lance (R) vs. Rush Holt (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 169,679 54.3%, McCain 142,951 45.7%
Average: Obama 49.1%, McCain 50.9%
Demographics 18+: 8.5% African American, 11.7% Asian, 7.4% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 49% (7th district,) Obama 58%, McCain 40% (12th district)
Status: Tossup

The new 7th district is a combination of the current 7th and 12th districts, representing parts of Mercer and Middlesex Counties formerly in the 12th district while also representing Hunterdon and Somerset Counties which were formerly in the 7th district. The 7th district loses its finger into Union and Middlesex Counties and does a strong job of representing communities of interest by combining exurban parts of central New Jersey. I included Trenton because of population reasons. The addition of Trenton though brings Obama's number in the district up to 54%. Although that number suggests the district leans Democratic, it is very even because the Republicans win the average vote. Also, Somerset County in 2008 swung heavily to Obama but Somerset County usually votes Republican (Governor Christie won Somerset County by 22 points in 2009.) Also, Leonard Lance who lives in the district is moderate and popular. He won by 8 points in 2008, despite facing a strong challenger in an even district. If Holt decides to run here though, it will be a close fight because Holt is a strong candidate and half of the voters in the district are familiar with him. Most of the other half of the voters are familiar with Lance though.

New Jersey's 8th Congressional District: Bill Pascrell (D) Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 159,555 58.4%, McCain 113,625 41.6%
Average: Dem 57.6%, Rep 42.4%
Demographics 18+: 9.3% African American, 6.3% Asian, 28.4% Hispanic, 54.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 8th district becomes more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic West Orange and gains swing parts of Bergen County near Lyndhurst. Also, the district adds Caldwell in west Essex County which is heavily Republican. Although these changes decrease the Obama percentage to 58%, Pascrell should win easily. He is popular here and won with 63% in the heavily Republican year of 2010.

New Jersey's 9th Congressional District: Steve Rotham (D) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 172,011 56.7%, McCain 131,469 43.3%
Average: Dem 57.0%, Rep 43.0%
Demographics 18+: 6.0% African American, 16.0% Asian, 16.1% Hispanic, 60.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 38%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 9th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of its Hudson County portions including Jersey City and represents Bergen County only. This change makes the district more centered around communities of interest by combining the similar suburban areas in Bergen County that were built in the 1950's-60s instead of combining north Bergen County with Jersey City. The new district also gains the northern Republican leaning part of Bergen County with areas such as Norwood and Bergenfield. Although these changes bring down the Obama percentage to 56.7%, Rotham is a popular incumbent, winning 61% in 2010 so he should be safe.

Newark/Jersey City area
New Jersey's 10th Congressional District: Donald Payne (D) DeepPink
Presidential Data: Obama 204,541 83.0%, McCain 41,966 17.0%
Average: Dem 79.5%, Rep 20.5%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 5.8% Asian, 16.8% Hispanic, 24.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 87%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 10th district lost population so it had to gain more territory in order to maintain population equity with other districts. To represent as many communities of interest as possible though, the 10th district lot Rahway in Union County on the Middlesex County border so the 10th district could be more centered around Essex County and northern Union County. The 10th district also lost most of Elizabeth to the 12th district and Maplewood to the 5th district. To compensate for the loss of these areas though, the 10th district gained West Orange and some swing areas in Union County such as Cranford. These changes bring the Obama percentage down to 83% but the district is still African American majority VAP and is the most Democratic district in New Jersey.

New Jersey's 11th Congressional District: Scott Garrett (R) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 147,263 43.0%, McCain 195,297 57.0%
Average: Dem 39.7%, Rep 60.3%
Demographics 18+: 6.4% Asian, 8.5% Hispanic, 81.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 54%
Status: Safe Republican

The 11th district represents communities of interest by representing conservative and affluent exurban areas in western New Jersey. Those areas are western Morris County, western Bergen County, Warren and Sussex Counties. The 43% Obama number is too low to elect a Democrat in the 2nd most Republican district in New Jersey. The primary though will be interesting. Although Frelinghuysen does not live in this district, most of his current territory is here. The new 11th district is a combination of Garrett's and Frelinghuysen's districts. They each represent close to an equal portion of the district and are both popular representatives. Garrett is more conservative than Frelinghuysen is though so Garrett may have a stronger chance in the primary.

New Jersey's 12th Congressional District: Albio Sires (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 121,570 71.7%, McCain 48,010 28.3%
Average: Dem 72.2%, Rep 27.8%
Demographics 18+: 7.9% African American, 10.0% Asian, 47.6% Hispanic, 32.4% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 75%, McCain 24%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 12th district becomes a few points more Republican as it loses heavily Democratic Perth Amboy and gains less Democratic areas such as Seacaucs and Kearny. The district also gains most of Elizabeth from the 10th district. These changes reduce the Obama percentage by a few points but the district is still heavily Democratic. Although the population of the district is majority Hispanic (50.3%,) the VAP is not. It is not possible to a create a Hispanic majority VAP district without extending the district to Perth Amboy and even there, the Citizens Voting Age population will probably not be over 50% for Hispanics. I used this district instead to combine communities of interest by representing industrial areas near the port such as Elizabeth and Kearny and combining it with the nearby Hudson County communities.

The Candidates Forum for California's 2nd Congressional District

I attended a forum for the Congressional Candidates for California's 2nd Congressional District on October 21st in the Marin Academy High School. The California Redistricting Commission redrew the map of California's districts so Marin County (where Marin Academy is) is in the same district as Mendocino, Humboldt, Del Norte, Trinity and parts of Sonoma County including Petaluma. I testified in front of the California Redistricting Commission twice and my analysis of those meetings is here:  http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/06/my-visit-to-california-redistricting.html and http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/07/thoughts-on-californias-redistricting.html
The new district that the Commission created spans from Sausalito to Crescent City. It represents all of Marin, Mendocino, Humboldt, Trinity and Del Norte Counties. It also represents western Sonoma County, Petaluma and all of Sonoma County including and north of Windsor. The district now has a mix of affulent voters in the Marin County area with a mix of working class and extremely liberal and environmental voters in the northern part of the district. The district is heavily white and heavily Democratic.
This post though focuses on the congressional candidates for the new seat now that Lynn Woolsey (D), the current representative in Marin plans to retire. Although California has a top two primary system where all candidates run in a jungle primary and the top two vote getters face each other in a runoff, all five candidates at the forum were Democrats and many of the candidates stated, "We agree on most of the issues." The candidates were Susan Adams (D), the President of the Marin County Board of Supervisors, Jared Huffman (D), the California State Assembly member from the 6th district representing Marin and southern Sonoma Counties, Norman Solomon (D), a progressive activist from Inverness in West Marin, Stacy Lawson (D), an entrepreneur from San Rafael and Tiffany Renee (D), a Petaluma city councilmember. Already, I noticed that none of these candidates live in the North Coast areas recently added to the district. This could create an opening for a North Coast candidate such as Wesley Chesbro (D) who is the State Assembly member there but all five Marin candidates have campaigned heavily in the North Coast which should increase their visibility there. The candidates discussed their outreach to the North Coast frequently during the forum because the North Coast has issues critical to them as a rural area that do not affect Marin which is a more suburban county. The candidates began the forum with their opening statements.

Jared Huffman's main points are that he is hardworking (he passed 60 bills including those that helped state parks and oil spills,) the country needs less vitriol and he has record of overcoming political gridlock. I liked his opening statement because he stated his environmental work which will play well with the large number of pro environment voters in the 2nd district and he stated his willingness to compromise which is important in the divided house today. Norman Solomon's opening statement including him calling himself "the grassroots candidate." He also strongly praised Occupy Wall St. and stated "We cannot remain silent." He also described health care as a human right. Although the 2nd district has many very liberal voters, Solomon may be running too far to the left to win. A recent poll showed him with 11% while Huffman had 16%. 46% of the voters were undecided though. Still, running to the left worked for Woolsey in 2006 when Joe Nation (D) challenged her in the primary and she won 66%-34% by running to his left. The next candidate, Stacy Lawson talked about how she grew up in a trailer in Washington State and became a successful businesswoman. After Lawson spoke, Susan Adams gave her opening statement. She stated how she wants a healthy planet with healthy communities and how she was a nurse for 33 years who supports health care for all. She ended by saying "Send a nurse to heal the house." She will probably will try to win the woman vote, especially from Mothers by focusing on the strong communities theme. Tiffany Renee talked about how she was the first Latina elected to Petaluma's city council, she had 20 years of experience in the community and that the United States needs to improve the nation's infrastructure. I liked her ideas but she seemed to lack a certain charisma.
Neha Budhraja, one of the Editors in Chief of Marin Academy's School Newspaper, the Voice asked the first question. "How will the district's expansion change the issues you hope to work on?" Susan Adams discussed how coastal issues connected the district. "We rely on your voices," she said. Tiffany Renee responded by talking about building consensus throughout the district and looking at natural resources. Her answer could have been more specific about which issues in particular though. Stacy Lawson explained the issues well by stating, "I went up and down the district. We need jobs. The 2nd big issue is protecting the coastline. The district was created for coastal interests. The 3rd issue is education." Norman Solomon responded by quickly stating how all the counties are unique with common threads with a hunger for honesty like the child in the Emperor's New Clothes who said, "The Emperor is not wearing any clothes." Most of his answer did not fully revolve around the question though. For example, he described his article against the Bank Bailout in the Marin Independent Journal (Marin IJ.) He stated he wanted to challenge Wall Street and power does not go without a fight. Then he mentioned how 70% of his donations were $50 or less and he would not accept corporate or PAC money. It should be noted that federal candidates cannot accept corporate money, including Norman Solomon and his opponents. Norman Solomon should have focused his answer on the question instead of describing his donations or an article he wrote against the bailout because that does not answer how the new district will specifically affect the issues. Jared Huffman fully explained the issues the new districts face when he said the common elements in this district with 500 miles of coastline is protectin oceans and fisheries. Jared Huffman also listed how the League of Conservation Voters and Ocean Champions have endorsed him and he will soon announce additional endorsements. Although he mentioned his supporters like Norman Solomon did, Jared Huffman integrated them better by using them to describe his consistent reliability on environmental issues. Jared Huffman also mentioned how the North Coast has a resource based economy and how the district needs someone who understands those issues.

After the candidates answered the first question, they opened questions to the audience. The first question was, "How do you plan to work around the power of the Pentagon?" Norman Solomon answered first by stating how Wall Street was the root of the problems with the Pentagon and he had a Dr. King reference in his answer but his reference was a real stretch. Although the Wall Street issue seems very important to Norman Solomon, he should have stated his opinion on the Iraq War instead of circling back to Wall Street. I know Solomon supports a full withdrawl of troops from both Iraq and Afghanistan and I know that most of the audience members would have agreed with him. I am not sure if many of the audience members though can see the connection between the funding for the Pentagon and the corporate power referenced by Occupy Wall Street. Still, the Iraq War is not a major issue for people but the Occupy Wall Street movement is at this moment and growing every day. As for Susan Adams, she had a focused answer on the Pentagon question and she highlighted how wars affected her when she mentioned how her brother had PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.) Jared Huffman explained how he opposed the Iraq War from the beginning. Stacy Lawson also mentioned Occupy Wall Street in her answer. Tiffany Renee mentioned how the war was a personal issue for her because she had relatives fighting in it. She did not want Operation Welcome Home to be defunded.

The next question was, "What are your proposals for deficit reduction?" Jared Huffman quickly answered by stating that the Bush tax cuts must expire. He stated his support for the American Jobs Act, proposed by President Obama, because it leads our nation on the right path by creating clean energy infrastructure and less military spending. Norman Solomon responded by saying "We need to protest Wall Street," in order to gain tax equity. Although protesting Wall Street may not have been the best answer for a question relating to the Pentagon, Occupy Wall Street fit well with the question relating to deficit reduction. Norman Solomon made a good decision though to highlight his views on Occupy Wall Street. Jared Huffman, through his work in the State Assembly, already has established himself as the environmental candidate. Also, Huffman's endorsements and environmental bills would make it very hard for Norman Solomon to win on the environmental issue, so discussing the extremely relevant Occupy Wall Street issue seems to work for him and increase his popularity with the district's progressives. Stacy Lawson seems to be trying to paint herself as the jobs candidate although Norman Solomon seems to be winning the battle for the Progressive movement. Stacy's answer to the question was that she supports the Warren Buffett plan which increases taxes on the rich. She did not highlight her opinions on Occupy Wall Street though. In order to beat Norman Solomon though and take one of the spots for the election after the top two primary, she needs to position herself as the candidate who can create jobs instead of as the candidate who dislikes the corporate power structure because voters are looking for solutions. As for Susan Adams's response to the question, she highlighted her support for the Warren Buffett plan. "Let's help Warren Buffett" she said. She also described how Marin County balanced its budget while she was a Supervisor and how she supported stewardship of taxpayer dollars. For example, she discussed how the state may release 40,000 prisoners because of budget problems. "In Marin, we give prisoners rehibilitation instead of jail," she said. She then described how Marin's recidivism rate was reduced by 85%. Tiffany Renee's answer to the question was quick when she said that she supported Occupy Wall Street and that, "Corporations are not people. " This was a reference to Romney's recent statement describing corporations as people.

The next question was from an independent friend of mine who asked, "You are all  liberal. How do you plan to compromise?" Adams responded first, reiterating her theme of healthy communities by stating how our country needs healthy discussions. She also discussed her experience with talking to conservatives in the Central Valley. Jared Huffman said that being bipartisan is a good idea but giving ones values away is a bad idea. He passed many bipartisan bills while in the state legislature. Stacy Lawson said that most people are favorable of tax reform and we need to look beyond ideology. People should stand for and not against something. Tiffany Renee replied by describing her politically diverse family who could always sit down together happily at family dinners. She believed Congress would not sit down together like her family at family dinners. I like how she brought the personal aspect of her life into the compromise debate. Norman Solomon though took a different stance on the compromising issue. He said, "We need to distinguish between compromise and capitulation." He described how Civil Rights movement leaders were considered unrighteous. Then he said how they did not compromise by asking for no colored fountains on Thursdays, they asked for no colored fountains on all days. As Solomon finished his statement, he advertised his non GMO sunflower seeds in seed packets that he brought with him to the event. After this question, the event ended because of the time limit. A few of the candidates including Susan Adams, Stacy Lawson and Norman Solomon though stayed after the events. They did not have a chance to answer my questions in the forum so I wanted to have a chance to talk to them. I first talked to Stacy Lawson and I asked her about what she believes the most important issues for Marin's youth are. She said that getting into college was an extremely important issue. As for Norman Solomon, he talked about drug issues and their importance. Susan Adams also highlighted a quality education was extremely important for youth. Even after Stacy Lawson and Norman Solomon left, Susan Adams stayed to talk to teachers and students.

Overall, this event was a fantastic way for the Marin Academy Community and me to learn about the candidates. A recent poll showed that 46% of the district's voters are undecided so I am glad voters could see where the candidates stand. The two polls released in this race though show that Jared Huffman leads with 16% and 20% respectively. Even the poll Norman Solomon's campaign released showed Solomon down by 5 points to Huffman. Although running to the left of all the candidates may work in the Democratic primary, California's top two primary system may change the dynamics of the race. All candidates of all parties run in a primary and the top two vote getters face each other in the general election, even if the top two are members of the same party. This means that independents can vote for the candidates in the primary and they will probably support the most moderate candidates. The five Democrats are all liberal but Susan Adams and Stacy Lawson could make inroads with the more moderate voters. Stacy Lawson's message of jobs will play well with voters who are unemployed while Susan Adams's message should work with women, especially mothers with her healthy communities' message. Overall, the candidates are successfully defining their roles. Jared Huffman is the environmental candidate, Norman Solomon is the Occupy Wall Street candidate, Stacy Lawson is the jobs candidate, Susan Adams is the health candidate and Tiffany Renee is the Latina candidate. Although the economy is rough and people want jobs, the North Coast is known for its strong commitment to the environment so I see Jared Huffman winning in the end.

Maryland 7-0-1

I am aware this is my 5th Maryland map that I have drawn. I wanted to draw a map though that created a 7-0-1 map with seven heavily Democratic seats and one swing seat. Creating an 8-0 map would require taking some Democratic precincts from Prince Georges County into the 1st district on the Eastern Shore and most legislators from Prince Georges County do not want that to happen. They recently for the map Maryland just passed with seven Democratic districts and one heavily Republican district. Instead of drawing a map that way, I drew a map with two majority African American districts, safe districts for all incumbents, a new Democratic district in western Maryland and a swing district combining the Eastern Shore with Democratic parts of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties. Also, this map features a new minority majority district. Anyway, here are the maps:

Maryland's 1st Congressional District Andy Harris (R) Blue
Obama 48.0%, McCain 50.3%
Average: Dem 49.8%, Rep 50.2%
Demographics 18+: 4.7% Hispanic, 16.9% African American, 74.1% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 58%
Status: Tossup

Harris does not live in this district anymore because his home is in Baltimore County and this district loses all of its territory in Baltimore County. This district retains all of the Eastern Shore which Harris previously represented so he may decide to run here. The 1st district gains Democratic leaning Annapolis, some Democratic leaning areas in western Anne Arundel County and a few Democratic precincts in Howard County. Even though McCain won the district, the district's Democratic average is nearly a tie. Also, Frank Kratovli (D) from the Eastern Shore may run here and he over performs in the Eastern Shore so if he runs, the Democratic areas outside of the Eastern Shore should be able to offset smaller Republican margins on the Eastern Shore.

Maryland's 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) Green
Obama 57.7%, McCain 40.3%
Average: Dem 63.1%, Rep 36.9%
Demographics 18+: 4.5% Hispanic, 4.6% Asian, 24.1% African American, 65.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 2nd Congressional district becomes a bit more Republican as it gains a few Republican areas from the 1st district such as Perry and parts of Cockeysville. The 2nd district also loses all of its territory in Anne Arundel County as it becomes centered around Baltimore County and Baltimore City. Although the district is a bit less Democratic than before, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning here. The area votes heavily Democratic at a local level. It is possible Andy Harris (R) decides to run here but the nearly 58% Obama numbers may discourage him.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) Purple
Obama 58.4%, McCain 39.6%
Average: Dem 60.7%, Rep 39.3%
Demographics 18+: 5.2% Hispanic, 7.8% Asian, 22.0% African American, 63.0% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 3rd Congressional district changes a bit as it loses all of its area in Baltimore County except for Towson where Sarbanes lives. This district becomes focused around Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, gaining parts of Columbia and Ellicot City that were formerly in the 7th district. The district remains strongly Democratic though with the 58% Obama number.

Maryland's 4th Congressional District Donna Edwards (D) Red
Obama 75.5%, McCain 23.5%
Average: Dem 73.3%, Rep 26.7%
Demographics 18+: 7.7% Hispanic, 4.3% Asian, 50.3% African American, 35.9% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 13%
Status: Safe Democratic

Edwards's district becomes more Republican as it gains most of heavily Republican Carroll County. The district retains minority heavy parts of Montgomery County as Edwards requested. The district retains heavily Democratic and African American parts of Prince Georges County, maintaining its VRA status and remaining too Democratic for a Republican to win.

Maryland's 5th Congressional District Steny Hoyer (D) Yellow
Obama 62.2%, McCain 36.6%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 5.4% Hispanic, 33.1% African American, 55.7% Whiite
Old Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 33%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 5th congressional district does not undergo major changes as it retains the southern portion of Maryland. It does gain the swingy Crofton area though while losing some precincts near Crofton and Laurel in Prince Georges County. Obama's 62% of the vote in this district though should ensure that it will remain in Democratic hands.

Maryland's 6th Congressional District Chris Van Hollen (D) Teal
Obama 60.7%, McCain 37.6%
Average: Dem 62.1%, Rep 37.9%
Demographics 18+: 10.4% Asian, 8.3% Hispanic, 9.0% African American, 70.5% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
Status: Likely Democratic

This district contains Van Hollen's home but makes major changes in its territory. While it retains heavily Democratic areas near Bethesda and Rockville, it also gains the Republican areas in the western part of the state in Alleghany, Garrett and Washington Counties. Van Hollen is very popular in his district though and the 60.7% Obama number should prevent Republican challengers such as Roscoe Bartlett (R) from successfully winning the district.

Maryland's 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray
Obama 67.8%, McCain 30.6%
Average: Dem 66.1%, Rep 33.9%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 43.2% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Status: Safe Democratic

The 7th Congressional district undergoes major changes as it loses all of Howard County and gains the heavily Republican areas of Harford and north Baltimore Counties. The even more strongly Democratic precincts in Baltimore City though keep this district strongly in the Democratic column.

Maryland's 8th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (R) SlateBlue
Obama 65.1%, McCain 33.3%
Average: Dem 64.5%, Rep 35.5%
Demographics 18+: 8.7% Asian, 20.1% Hispanic, 19.3% African American, 49.8% White
Old Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 25%
Status: Safe Democratic

Although Bartlett's home of Frederick is in the 8th district, he will probably not run here because of the 65% Obama numbers in this district. The 8th congressional district loses the heavily Republican western parts of Maryland with Alleghany and Garrett Counties while losing conservative areas in Carroll and Baltimore Counties. The 8th district then gains Democratic parts of Montgomery County such as Gaithersburg and even gains a small portion of Prince Georges County. Van Hollen may decide to run in the 8th district instead of the 6th district even though he does not live in the new 8th.

Ohio Fair Redistricting Map

As you may know, Ohio recently passed its new redistricting map for the 2010's decade. Ohio has a reputation for being the biggest swing state, deciding the election of 2004 and voting near the national average in 2000, 2004, and 2008. One might expect the legislature to draw a map designed to elect an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, so all political parties are fairly represented. The Republican legislature decided not to do that, instead, they drew a map designed to elect 12 Republicans and four Democrats. To create the large number of Republican districts, they split communities of interest by combining Toledo with Cleveland instead of creating a district representing Toledo and nearby counties. Also, instead of combining Cincinnati with nearby suburbs, they combine Cincinnati with a string to Warren County, an extremely conservative exurban county. They should have created a district representing as much of Hamilton County as possible because Hamilton County is where Cincinnati and its close suburbs are located. They should then create a district that represents the outer suburbs in Clermont, Warren and Butler Counties. Also, they placed Springfield and Lucas County (Toledo) in the same district. Another example of their splitting of communities of interest is when they combine suburbs close to Cleveland with not more Cleveland suburbs or Cleveland, they combine it Canton which is south of Akron and should not share a representative with voters who live in the Cleveland area. Canton and Cleveland are two distinct cities with two distinct metropolitan areas. The Ohio legislature should learn the intended purpose of congressional districts. It was not to help one's political party while stifling the voice of communities; it was to increase the voice of a community, not a political party. For example, in the 9th district which was drawn to absorb Democratic areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, if Marcy Kaptur (D) from Toledo retired and the district elected a Cleveland politician, the Toledo area will have no representative to go to Washington and fight for Toledo's interests because a Cleveland politician will not understand Toledo's interests as well as a Toledo politician would. Toledo has enough people for a district that can be drawn centered around it that would elect a representative who is familiar with Toledo's needs. Anyway, here is my map that combines communities of interest and creates competitive districts so incumbents will have to tailor to the needs of both parties in order to win reelection.

 Instead of creating 12 districts for the Republicans to win and 4 seats for the Democrats to win, this fair map tries to represent Ohio's close divide between both parties. This fair map also creates some competitive seats instead of seats designed to protect Republican incumbents for as long as they want. It creates four safe Democratic seats, two likely Democratic seats, three tossup seats, two lean Republican (they will both become tossups when their Republican incumbents retire,) one likely Republican seat and four safe Republican seats. Also, it is possible that there will be a referendum on the maps. If they are overtuned, a court will draw them. Hopefully the court draws a map similar to this one that respects communities of interest and creates many districts designed to be competitive for both parties.

Here is a link to Ohio's current congressional map: http://www.ocsea.org/politicalaction/districts.asp

Here is a link to the map Ohio's Republicans drew: http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2011/09/ohios_new_congressional_distri.html

Ohio statewide
Ohio's 1st Congressional District Steve Chabot (R) Blue
Presidential Data: Obama 203,768 55.0%, McCain 162,949 44.0%
Average: Dem  52.1%, Rep  47.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Demographics 18+: 25.8% African American, 68.6% White
Status: Tossup

The 1st district becomes more centered around Cincinnati instead of extending into the suburbs around Hamilton County (Cincinnati.) The 1st district loses all of Butler County, stays completely within Hamilton County and gains all of Cincinnati as well as some nearby suburbs in eastern Hamilton County. As the district becomes more compact, it becomes more competitive as it gains swing areas in eastern Cincinnati in exchange for conservative areas in Butler County. This represents communities of interest better than the Ohio map the Republicans drew because that map combined exurbs in Warren County with inner city Cincinnati. Although Chabot won the district in 2010, that year had low Democratic turnout in heavily Democratic areas such as Cincinnati's inner city and the district is trending Democratic as Republican leaning voters move into suburban Butler, Warren and Clermont Counties. If Obama increases African American turnout in 2012, the Democrats will have a strong shot at winning. In a low turnout year though, Republicans will have a stronger chance.

Southwest Ohio
Ohio's 2nd Congressional District Jean Schmidt (R) vs. John Boehner (R) Green
Presidential Data: Obama 123,033 34.1%, McCain 233,542 64.7%
Average: Dem  35.4%, Rep  64.6%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 40%, McCain 59%
Demographics 18+: 4.0% African American, 89.8% White
Status: Safe Republican

When I drew this map, I did not consider incumbents so John Boehner's (R) home is in the same district as Jean Schimdt's (R) but most of the territory here is in her current district. Boehner is Speaker of the House though so he should have no problem raising money in the primary but he may decide to run in the 8th district instead which contains most of his current district's territory. The new lines though remove Democratic parts of Hamilton County, making the district the most Republican one in Ohio so Schmidt can be as far right as she wants without worrying about a tough race in a Democratic year. In 2006 and 2008, she faced tight races from moderate Democrats who painted her as far right.

Ohio's 3rd Congressional District Mike Turner (R) Purple
Presidential Data: Obama 187,716 50.2%, McCain 180,038 48.2%
Average: Dem  49.7%,  50.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 52%
Demographics 18+: 16.1% African American, 78.6% White
Status: Lean Republican, Tossup when Turner retires

This district becomes more Democratic and compact, losing rural counties such as Highland County that belong in a district that represents other rural counties in southern Ohio, not urban areas. The 3rd district combines urban areas, representing all of Montgomery County (Dayton) and Clark County (Springfield) as well as suburban Beavercreek in Greene County. Although the 3rd district becomes more Democratic, Turner should win here because he is popular and entrenched here. If he retires though, Democrats will have a strong shot at this district but it is trending Republican. Clark County voted for Gore in 2000 but Obama could not carry it in 2008.

Ohio's 4th Congressional District Vacant (Jim Jordan (R)?) Red
Presidential Data: Obama 140,593 41.0%, McCain 195,396 56.9%
Average: Dem  44.9%, Rep  55.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 38%, McCain 60%
Demographics 18+: 4.6% African American, 91.4% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 4th district moves further north as it loses four rural counties in the southern part of the district to the 8th district. It also loses Urbana which is Jordan's home but because this district contains most of Jordan's current territory and is strongly Republican, Jordan may run here. The district becomes a few points less Republican though as it gains swingy Sandusky County. Also, Bob Latta (R) may run here because his 5th district is eliminated and the 4th district adds part of his current district. Jordan represents more of the new 4th district than Latta does though so Jordan has the advantage.

Ohio's 5th Congressional District Jim Renacci (R) vs. Betty Sutton (D) Yellow
Presidential Data: Obama 174,487 48.9%, McCain 176,327 49.3%
Average: Dem 54.6%, McCain  45.4%
Old Presidential Data: (formerly the 16th) Obama 48%, McCain 50%
Demographics 18+: 3.7% African American, 91.7% White
Status: Tossup

This new district combines most of north central Ohio. It represents Democratic areas in Erie and Lorian Counties but also contains Medina and Ashland Counties which help counterbalance the Democratic areas. Overall, the district voted for McCain by less than 1 point so although the district may lean Republican, Democrats should have a shot here. Sutton though may decide to run in the nearby 13th district which is more Democratic and does not contain a Republican incumbent's residency. The 5th district contains more of her current district than the new 13th district on this map does though. Also, the average percentage for the district was 54.6% Democratic so the district definitely seems Democratic at a statewide level. It depends on how strongly turnout in Lorain and Erie Counties counterbalance the rest of the district.

Ohio's 6th Congressional District Bob Gibbs (R) vs. Bill Johnson (R) Teal
Presidential Data: Obama 145,046 45.9%, McCain 163,435 51.7%
Average: Dem  55.7%, Rep  44.3%
Old Presidential Data: (for 6th district) Obama 49%, McCain 50% (for 18th district) Obama 45%, McCain 53%
Demographics 18+: 95.7% White
Status: Tossup

This district combines the homes of freshmen Bob Gibbs (R) and Bill Johnson (R). Gibbs represents a larger portion of the district though while the only areas in Johnson's current district and this one are Athens, his home of Marietta and a few small Ohio River counties. This district represents communities of interest though by combining rural counties with some small cities in eastern Ohio. Gibbs should win the primary here but he could face a tough general. Although this part of Ohio is trending away from the Democrats, the Democratic average was nearly 56% and former Reps. Charlie Wilson (D) or Zack Space (D) who lost in the 2010 Republican wave could make a comeback here in a neutral or Democratic year.

Ohio's 7th Congressional District Steve Austria (R) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 130,340 41.0%, McCain 181,484 57.1%
Average: Dem 46.5%, Rep 53.5%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 45%, McCain 54%
Demographics 18+: 4.8% African American, 92.0% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 7th district becomes more Republican as it loses all of Franklin County (Columbus) and gains some conservative rural counties in the southern portion of the state. The district becomes centered around the rural southern part of the state. He should face no primary challenge unless Jean Schmidt (R) decides to run here because many of the counties in her current district were added to the 7th. She probably will not run though because her home is in the 2nd district.

Ohio's 8th Congressional District Vacant (John Boehner (R)?) Slateblue
Presidential Data: Obama 122,984 35.4%, McCain 217,843 62.7%
Average: Dem 39.0%, Rep 61.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 36%, McCain 62%
Demographics 18+: 94.5% White
Status: Safe Republican

The 8th district becomes more rural as it gains counties along Ohio's western border and extends further into the central part of the state. Although Boehner does not live in the district, he may run here because it contains large portions of his current district with Preble, Butler and Miami Counties. The new counties the 8th district are both from the current 4th and 5th districts but it is unlikely Jordan or Latta would want to challenge Boehner in a primary because Boehner is the speaker.

Toledo area
Ohio's 9th Congressional District Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Bob Latta (R) Cyan
Presidential Data: Obama 210,399 58.6%, McCain 142,849 39.8%
Average: Dem 60.7%, Rep 39.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 4.4% Hispanic, 11.2% African American, 81.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The new 9th district the Republicans in the Ohio Legislature drew combines Toledo with inner city Cleveland. This does not combine communities of interest because Toledo is an industrial area that looks toward Detroit and auto manufacturing while Cleveland focuses more around steel. This 9th district on this map though combines communities of interest instead of combining urban areas in western and eastern Ohio. Those communities of interest are Toledo and the nearby small cities and farming areas in western Ohio such as Bowling Green. Although the majority of the district's population is in Kaptur's current district, she gains Bowling Green which is where Latta lives. If Latta challenges Kaptur, Kaptur should win because she has represented parts of the district since the early 1980s and the district has a strong Democratic lean. Latta will probably want a safer district so he may run in the 4th district which also contains part of his current district.

Cleveland area
Ohio's 10th Congressional District Dennis Kucinich (D) DeepPink
Presidential Data: Obama 199,469 54.8%, McCain 159,398 43.8%
Average: Dem 60.3%, Rep 39.7%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Demographics 18+: 4.0% African American, 4.9% Hispanic, 87.8% White
Status: Likely Democratic

The map of Ohio that the Republicans drew for the 10th district creates a district that combines Cleveland's western suburbs with Canton and Amish country. The Cleveland suburbs are urban and are focused around Cleveland, not Canton or rural Amish. That is why I drew a 10th district that combines Cleveland's western suburbs, including those in Lorain County. Anyway, the district becomes more Republican as it loses large parts of Cleveland and gains Republican leaning suburbs in southern Cuyahoga County. Although this district leans Democratic, it may not be Democratic enough to elect a far left Democrat such as Kucinich but it could elect a more moderate Democrat such as Betty Sutton. This district is trending Republican though so at the end of the decade, Republicans may be very competitive here.

Ohio's 11th Congressional District Marcia Fudge (D) Chartreuse
Presidential Data: Obama 300,111 81.5%, McCain 65,061 17.7%
Average: Dem 81.1%, Rep 18.9%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 85%, McCain 14%
Demographics 18+: 50.0% African American, 42.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

I am aware that combining Akron and Cleveland does not represent communities of interest. I have to respect the Voting Rights Act though and draw one African American VAP majority district in the area surrounding Cleveland. This district combines African Americans in Cleveland's east side and in Akron. Fudge should have no trouble in the general election but it is possible that a candidate from Akron may challenge her in the primary.

Columbus area

Ohio's 12th Congressional District:: Pat Tiberi (R) CornflowerBlue
Presidential Data: Obama 183,965 50.0%, McCain 179,489 48.7%
Average: Dem 48.0%, Rep 52.0%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Demographics 18+: 15.0% African American, 76.8% White
Status: Likely Republican

This district becomes more Republican as it loses part of Columbus's central city and becomes more suburban. It gains the suburban Blackhawk estates in southeast Franklin County. Although the district voted for Obama and is trending Democratic, voters here still vote Republican locally and Tiberi is personally popular in the district. Democrats failed to unseat him in 2006 and 2008 when his district voted 54% for Obama. In this safer district, Tiberi should win easily but if he retires, a strong Democrat will have a chance.

Ohio's 13th Congressional District Vacant
Presidential Data: Obama 191,833 54.1%, McCain 156,554 44.2%
Average: Dem 57.6%, Rep 42.4%
Old Presidential Data: N/A
Demographics 18+: 8.6% African American, 87.3% White
Status: Likely Democratic

This district combines the urban areas of Canton and Akron. On the new Ohio map, the Republicans drew districts that combined Canton and Akron with Mansfield, the Clevleand suburbs and Youngstown. Instead of diluting their voting power though, this district ensures that these areas will have a voice in the House. The district contains all of Stark County (Canton) and represents the eastern part of Summit County (Akron.) As for the candidates in the district, no incumbent currently lives here but Betty Sutton (D) may decide to run here because she lives in the 5th district which voted 49% for Obama, even though her current district and the new 13th share no territory. Also, the 54% Obama percentage gives Republicans a shot at this district in a Republican year.

Ohio's 14th Congressional District Steve LaTourette (R) Olive
Presidential Data: Obama 191,168 51.8%, McCain 172,047 46.8%
Average: Dem 56.0%, Rep 44.0%
Old Presidential Data: McCain 49%, Obama 49%
Demographics 18+: 3.5% African American, 92.2% White
Status: Lean Republican if Tourette runs, Tossup if not

The 14th congressional district does not undergo major changes. It retains most of its current territory and it becomes more Democratic as it loses conservative parts of Summit County while gaining Democratic leaning Portage County and Democratic parts of Cuyahoga County. These areas are mostly communities of interest by being in the northeastern corner of Ohio. As for the district's representation, LaTourette is very popular and moderate and won in the wave years of 2006 and 2008. If he decides to retire though, Democrats will be very competitive here and the district should trend Democratic as Democrats in Cleveland move further out into suburbs in areas such as Lake County.

Ohio's 15th Congressional District Steve Strivers (R) DarkOrange
Presidential Data: Obama 207,581 61.6%, McCain 123,762 36.7%
Average: Dem 60.9%, Rep 39.1%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Demographics 18+: 4.2% Hispanic, 17.2% African American, 72.8% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 15th congressional district  loses rural Madison and Union Counties and now is completely inside Franklin County (Columbus.) These changes help representation for communities of interest by eliminating rural parts of the district and making it centered around urban Columbus. As for the district's representation, Obama's percentage increases from 54% to 62%, eliminating any chance for Republicans. Strivers has no real option on this map because the new 15th district is too Democratic for him and Tiberi is too popular for a successful primary challenge. As for the Democrat in this district, the candidates who are planning to run in the Columbus district on the Republicans' map such as Mary Jo Kilroy (D) probably would run here.

Ohio's 16th Congressional District Tim Ryan (D) Lime
Presidential Data: Obama 204,470 56.5%, McCain 149,673 41.3%
Average: Dem 70.7%, Rep 29.3%
Old Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 36%
Demographics 18+: 8.1% African American, 88.5% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The current 17th district becomes the 16th district and gains some industrial counties along the Ohio River valley while retaining the Youngstown area. This district represents communities of interest by combining industrial counties in eastern Ohio. The Youngstown area is Democratic but the Ohio River counties are more swingy so the addition of those counties bring Obama's percentage down to 57%. The Average Democrat's performance is 71% though, suggesting this area still votes heavily Democratic for local races. Although this district certainly looks Democratic enough to support Ryan, by the end of the decade, it could become more competitive if white working class voters continue to trend Republican.

Florida Fair Redistricting Part III: South Florida

This is the final of 3 posts analyzing my fair Florida redistricting proposal. My first post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-i-north.html and my 2nd post is here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/08/florida-fair-redistricting-part-ii.html

South Florida

Florida's 19th Congressional District:  Frederica Wilson (D) Yellowgreen
Presidential Data: Obama 219,280 84.3%, McCain 40,719 15.7%
Old Percentage: Obama 87%, McCain 12%
Demographics: 52.9% African American, 31.3% Hispanic, 12.2% White
Demographics 18+: 50.5% African American, 32.4% Hispanic, 13.6% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The former 17th district retains most of its current territory, representing communities of interest by representing heavily African American communities in northern Miami Dade and southern Broward Counties. This district also stays west of Route 1. Although the district becomes a few points more Republican due to gaining a few heavily Cuban precincts, the 19th district is heavily Democratic and with the 84.3% Obama percentage, it is by far the most Democratic district in Florida.

Miami Area

Florida's 20th Congressional District: Illeana Ros Lehtinen (R) Pink
Presidential Data: Obama 131,823 58.0%, McCain 95,439 42.0%
Old Percentage: Obama 51%, McCain 49%
Demographics: 13.4% African American, 62.0% Hispanic, 22.0% White
Demographics 18+: 12.0% African American, 62.5% Hispanic, 23.0% White
Status: Lean Democratic if Lehtinen runs, Likely Democratic if not

This district at first appears Democratic because its 58% Obama percentage is not far from the 61% Obama in the 11th district which I listed as Safe Democratic. Although the 20th district is certainly trending Democratic as Cubans become less staunchly Republican and non Cuban Hispanics whom lean Democratic move into the Miami area, the 20th district may stay in Republican hands because Ros Lehinten is a popular and moderate incumbent. A strong Democratic candidate still should though as I increased the Obama percentage in the district from 51% to 58%. I removed the Republican leaning areas around Coral Gables while adding some heavily Democratic areas around Cutler Bay and Homestead. Ros Lehtinen is unfamiliar to the voters in those areas and although she is entrenched in parts of her current district, the new district with its 58% Obama percentage should be enough to unseat her or encourage her to primary a weak incumbent such as David Riveria (R) in the 27th district. As for communities of interest, the 20th district represents similar communities by representing all of Miami Dade's coastal areas south of Miami Beach.

Broward County


Florida's 21st Congressional District: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) vs. Allen West (R) Maroon
Presidential Data: Obama 198,837 67.3%, McCain 96,556 32.7%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 24.8% African American, 23.8% Hispanic, 45.4% White
Demographics 18+: 22.7% African American, 22.8% Hispanic, 48.9% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The new 21st district is a combination of the current 19th, 20th and 23rd districts. Schultz lives here but most of her current district is in the new 25th so she may move and run there. The 21st district contains most of inland Broward County with Sunrise and Coral Springs but also contains Pompono Beach. Allen West's home of Plantation is in the 21st district but West is a far right teabagger who would not fare well in a 67% Obama district like this one.

Palm Beach County

Florida's 22nd Congressional District: Tom Rooney (R) Sienna
Presidential Data: Obama 170,214 60.6%, McCain 110,618 39.4%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 18.8% African American, 24.1% Hispanic, 52.8% White
Demographics 18+: 16.7% African American, 22.1% Hispanic, 57.4% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Tom Rooney (R) who represents the current 16th district which spans from Port Charlotte to a few Palm Beach suburbs lives in Tequesta which is in the district. Besides Teqeusta and Wellington, the new 22nd and current 16th districts share no areas so Rooney will probably not run in the 22nd district and run in the new 26th instead which contains large portions of his current district. Also, the 61% Obama percentage in the 22nd district will fend off any strong Republican challengers. As for Democrats, West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel (D) who is currently challenging Allen West (R) in the current 22nd district may decide  to run here.

Florida's 23rd Congressional District (formerly the 21st Congressional District:) Mario Diaz-Balart (R) Aquamarine
Presidential Data: Obama 120,623, 51.7%, McCain 112,877 48.3%
Old Percentage: Obama 49%, McCain 51%
Demographics: 7.6% African American, 73.4% Hispanic, 15.2% White
Demographics 18+: 7.1% African American, 75.1% Hispanic, 14.3% White
Status: Toss Up

Diaz-Balart's district becomes a point more Democratic as it loses some heavily Cuban areas near Westchester and gains a larger portion of Democratic leaning Pembroke Pines. Although Obama won the district by 3 points, the district is more Republican than the numbers suggest because young Cubans swung heavily toward Obama in 2008. Diaz-Balart may be vulnerable here though because he was elected here in 2010 so voters are not familiar to him. Also, if Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez (D) runs, he will have a strong chance to win because he can keep Republican margins low in Hialeah so a Democratic lead in Broward County will offset the Republican precincts in Miami Dade County.

Florida's 24th Congressional District: (formerly the 19th district) Ted Deutch (D) Indigo
Presidential Data: Obama 207,531 61.9%, McCain 127,567 38.1%
Old Percentage: Obama 65%, McCain 34%
Demographics: 13.2% African American, 13.0% Hispanic, 69.3% White
Demographics 18+: 11.4% African American, 11.7% Hispanic, 73.0% White
Status: Safe Democratic

The 24th district (formerly the 19th district)  becomes more compact as it represents southern Palm Beach County and northern Broward County. These changes make the 24th district a few points more Republican as it loses all of West Palm Beach and gains some affluent and Republican leaning precincts in Delray Beach, Deerfield Beach and Boca Raton. Those Republican areas were formerly in the 22nd District but I eliminated the district because it did not combine communities of interest. It represents communities from Jupiter in northern Palm Beach County to Davie in southern Broward County. Instead, my map has districts that represent a certain area such as having the 24th district represent southern Palm Beach and northern Broward Counties. Anyway, the changes in this district should not endanger Deutch because Obama won 62% here.

Florida's 25th Congressional District: (formerly the 20th district) Vacant (Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) ?)
Presidential Data: Obama 190,438 66.8%, McCain 94,592 33.2%
Old Percentage: Obama 63%, McCain 36%
Demographics: 20.9% African American, 27.2% Hispanic, 48.0% White
Demographics 18+: 18.5% African American, 27.1% Hispanic, 50.7% White
Status: Safe Democratic

Although the 20th district's representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) does not live in this district, she may run here because the 25th district contains most of her current district. The only changes are that the 25th district goes less inland by losing Sunrise and Plantation while gaining all of Fort Lauderdale, including some heavily Democratic and African American precincts there. These changes boost the Democratic performance to 67% in this already safely Democratic district.

Florida's 26th Congressional District
Florida's 26th Congressional District Vacant (Tom Rooney (R) ?) Gray
Presidential Data: Obama 159,098 50.1%, McCain 158,771 49.9%
Old Percentage: N/A
Demographics: 15.1% African American, 14.9% Hispanic, 66.7% White
Demographics 18+: 13.5% African American, 12.6% Hispanic, 71.2% White
Status: Lean Republican

This district represents the Florida coast between Melbourne and Palm Beach,  representing Indian River, St. Lucie and Martin Counties. It also contains portions of Brevard and Palm Beach Counties. Tom Rooney may run here although I moved his home, Tequesta in Palm Beach County out of the district. Also,  added Democratic neighborhoods in St. Lucie County and heavily Democratic Belle Glades in Palm Beach County. Although these changes make the district more Democratic, the district still has a slight Republican lean. In a strong Democratic year though, this district should be Democratic enough to flip Democratic like the current Florida 8th and 24th congressional districts did in 2008. They voted 51% and 48% for Obama respectively, close to the 50% Obama in the new 26th district.

Florida's 27th Congressional District David Riveria (R) Springgreen
Presidential Data: Obama 118,202 43.6%, McCain 152,818 56.4%
Old Percentage: Obama 49%, McCain 50%
Demographics: (formerly the 25th) 77.8% Hispanic, 16.3% White
Demographics 18+: 78.4% Hispanic, 15.6% White
Status: Safe Republican

The former 25th congressional district becomes more Republican despite losing all of heavily Republican Collier County. The reason is that in order to keep communities together, the 27th district stays on the west side of Highway 1 which has more Republican precincts than Highway 1's eastern side. Also, the 27th district loses all of Democratic Homestead while gaining some heavily Republican precincts in western Miami. These changes push the Republican percentage to 56% McCain, making this district the most Republican district in Miami County and the Gold Coast.

Overall, my Florida map undid many of the gerrymandered districts the current Florida map has. I created two districts centered around Orlando instead of having a district share Orlando and Jacksonville while I created a Jacksonville centered district. Also, the map dismantled the 23rd Congressional District which combined Palm Beach neighborhoods with Miramar on the Miami Dade County border. Although the 23rd district was a VRA district, I had to dismantle it and combine it into the 21st, 22nd, 24th and 25th districts because the 23rd district violated communities of interest and I could not create a majority African American district stretching from Fort Lauderdale to West Palm Beach. As for the partisanship of the new districts, there are 7 Safe Democratic seats, 3 Likely Democratic seats, 1 Lean Democratic seat, 2 Toss Up seats, 3 Lean Republican seats, 1 Likely Republican and 10 Safe Republican seats. Although Republicans still have an edge with 14 Republican seats compared to 11 Democratic ones and 2 Toss Ups, Florida's Democratic areas are in a few heavily Democratic areas while Florida's Republican areas are more spread out so it is easier to draw Republican districts. Also, 3 of Florida's Republican districts are lean Republican so in a Democratic year, Democrats could control as many as 16 of Florida's congressional districts while in 2008, the Democrats controlled only ten out of Florida's 25 districts. Anyway, Florida's Republican legislature may try to combine communities of interest while not creating new opportunities for Democrats but this map creates a real fair map for Florida where both parties are at a roughly equal position and will fairly represent Florida's constituents.