This is my update on my post here http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/12/analysis-of-californias-congressional.html that analyzes California's Congressional races. This post looks at how the races have changed since my January post.
(image is courtesy of Daily Kos) Map of California's new Congressional Districts
On November 2nd, 2010, California voters passed Proposition 20 allowing a commission composed of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 Decline to States to redraw my state's congressional districts. Previously, the state legislature drew the maps. In the House of Representatives, the representatives represent voters in districts the legislature draws. In recent years though, states such as Washington and California have chosen commissions to draw districts without political influence. In California, the commission traveled around the state to hear public comments from citizens like me and talk to groups such as MALDEF. On June 10th, 2011, the California Redistricting Commission released their first set of maps for California after hearing public comments from meetings such as this one on May 20th that I attended. The guidelines set for the commission were to draw districts that follow the VRA, stick to county boundaries as much as possible and preserve communities of interest. They approved the final maps in mid August. Also, this is the first election year where all California Congressional elections will have a top two primary where all candidates run in the June 5th primary and the top two vote getters advance to the general election on November 6th.
Overall, the Commission’s new Congressional map produces 28 Safe Democratic seats, five Likely Democratic seats, three Lean Democratic seats, four Tossup seats, one lean Republican seat, one Likely Republican seat and 11 Safe Republican seats. This totals to 36 seats expected to vote Democratic with 13 seats expected to vote Republican for Congress, suggesting Democrats could win 2-6 seats under California’s new map.
A few notes: CVAP represents the citizen voting age population.
Here are the maps of the districts drawn in 2002: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=CA
Here are the maps of the new districts: http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/california-congressional-delegation/
California's 1st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 53%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 53%
Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 79% White
Safe Republican
Rep. Wally Herger (R) recently announced his retirement here. State Senator Doug LaMalfa (R) will probably run here. He should have no trouble winning reelection in this heavily rural and Republican district representing the Sierras and the Central Valley in Northern California.
California's 2nd Congressional District: Open (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 30%
Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 73% White
Safe Democratic
This district which represents Marin County and the North Coast is heavily Democratic so it should not elect a Republican. The Democratic Primary though has been extremely competitive. Four Marin County Democrats are running including State Assembly member Jared Huffman (D), Progressive activist Norman Solomon (D), Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams (D), and entrepreneur Stacy Lawson (D). The lone Republican is business owner Dan Roberts (R). Most polls have showed Huffman in the lead with Solomon as the close second. Due to California's top two primary systems, two Democrats can run against each other in the general election so Solomon is trying to run to the left of Huffman. The strategy seems to be working because most polls show Solomon in 2nd place. Also, Solomon has gained endorsements from progressives such as Raul Griljava (D) from Arizona. The question is how important will these endorsements be in the 2nd district. Huffman has received endorsements from State Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and three former State Assembly members who represented parts of the 2nd district. As for Adams, her campaign theme of healthy communities and healthy families is appealing but she needs to get more endorsements. Also, for more details on the race for the 2nd district, read my post here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/11/candidates-forum-for-californias-2nd.html
Update:
Eleven candidates have entered this race now and a new poll shows Jared Huffman with 24% and his closest competitor Stacy Lawson has 9%. Susan Adams is at 5% and so are the Republican candidates. Stacy Lawson actually out raised Huffman during the most recent quarter. Due to California's top two primary system, a Democrat vs. Democrat race is very likely. Also, Stacy Lawson has been rising in the polls due to her extensive ads where she talks about bringing jobs to the middle class. She has also raised more money than Huffman during the 1st Quarter of 2012 and is a rich businesswoman. I was in Humboldt County in late April and her ads were everywhere on the radio while I did not hear many of them on the Marin radio. This suggests Stacy Lawson is trying to win over more working class voters in Humboldt County to offset Jared Huffman's margins in Marin County where he is well known and his environmental views are popular. There are many environmentalists in Humboldt County too so Jared Huffman needs to highlight his environmental views. As for Stacy Lawson, she is a strong pro business Democrat similar to former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) from the Walnut Creek area. Stacy Lawson would play well in that area if she ran there but the North Coast district may not match her views enough for her to win. As for Solomon, he is actually starting to raise money and has received endorsements from Rep. Raul Griljava (D), Rep. John Conyers (D) and actor Sean Penn who used to live in the 2nd district (I went to his daughter's high school actually.)
California's 3rd Congressional District: John Garamendi (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 42%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 43%
Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 51% White
Lean Democratic
Garamendi used to represent inland Contra Costa County as well as Fairfield in Solano County but his district is now more Republican with the addition of Sutter, Yuba, Colusa and Glenn Counties. Although Obama and Brown still won the district, the Republican areas in the district's northern part make the district competitive. The Republican field consists of Sutter County District Attorney Tony Carlos (R) and Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann (R). Carlos will be a strong candidate in the general election because of his moderate views on immigration in a district where Hispanics are 16% of the CVAP (Citizen Voting Age population.) He can make inroads among the Hispanic voters in Solano County where Garamendi needs to win large margins in order to win. Carlos may be too moderate for voters in the primary because the Republican electorate in the 3rd district is very conservative. As for Vann, most pundits consider her the frontrunner. I see Garamendi winning though because Vann's primary campaign theme is agricultural issues. Those issues are important to voters in the northern part of the district but if Vann wants to win, she needs to make inroads in Solano County and agriculture is less important there. Also, Obama's presence on the ticket should increase turnout in Yolo County where Garamendi needs a strong turnout to win.
Update:
I drove through the northern part of the 3rd district recently too and I saw many signs for Vann but a few Garamendi signs too. Most polls show Vann going into the top two race. Right now, I am going to say Garamendi wins because although 55% Obama is not enough for a safe Democratic district and Garamendi only has $225,000 on hand to Vann's $217,000, Garamendi is popular with agriculture voters who live in the more Republican parts of the district so he can make introads there. Just recently for example, he passed a flood insurance bill which is popular with farmers. Also,Vann is from Colusa County, a rural area in part of the district. She therefore may not understand suburban Solano County's issues very well and be unable to cut into Garamendi's margins there (Garamendi needs a big win in Solano County in order to win districtwide.) Also, with Obama on the ballot in 2012, Davis should turn out strongly for him. I am keeping the race at Lean Democratic due to the near tie in cash but Garamendi definitely has a lead.
California's 4th Congressional District: Tom McClintock (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 43%, McCain 54%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 78% White
Safe Republican
McClintock gains new territory in the Central Sierras but the new territory is rural and Republican like the rest of his district. He should have no trouble winning reelection here.
California's 5th Congressional District: Mike Thompson (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 26% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 53% White
Safe Democratic
Thompson faces unfamiliar territory by gaining Santa Rosa and the Martinez area. Although Rep. George Miller (D) lives in Martinez, he should run in the nearby district containing Richmond and Concord. Thompson should be safe from a primary challenge though and the 70% Obama number should ensure his reelection against a Republican.
California's 6th Congressional District: Doris Matsui (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 66%, Whitman 28%
Demographics: 13% African American, 27% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 39% White
Safe Democratic
Matsui's district remains similar to its current form. It is still heavily Democratic and safe for her.
California's 7th Congressional District: Dan Lungren (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 44%
Demographics: 8% African American, 14% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 57% White
Lean Democratic
In its 2006 edition, the Almanac of American Politics called Lungren's district safely Republican but in the last few years, the district's demographics have changed as the Sacramento suburbs have trended Democratic quickly. The Democrats gained a State Assembly seat in the Sacramento suburbs in 2010 and Democratic candidate Dr. Ami Bera (D) came within seven points of unseating Lungren in 2010, a heavily Republican year. Across the state, Jerry Brown (D) underperformed Obama statewide but in the Sacramento suburbs, he matched Obama's percentages. Also, Democrats gained a State Assembly seat in the Sacramento suburbs in 2010 (the only State Assembly seat to change hands that year,) further evidence the area is trending Democratic. The commission also decreased McCain's percentage in Lungren's district from 49% to 46%. This race should be very competitive because Bera is running again and he is a strong fundraiser (he outraised Lungren in 2010.) Also, 2012 should be more favorable to the Democrats than 2010 was.
Update:
At first, I thought that this race would be close but Bera would eventually win by 5 points. Lungren though has started fighting back and although Bera still leads with $1,148,000 cash on hand, Lungren is not too far away with $900,000 cash on hand. In 2010, Bera may have slipped by with fundraising because national politicians did not consider Lungren's district to be competitive. After Lungren's surprisingly narrow victory in 2010 though, national politicians are becoming interested in this race and will probably spend money here. Lungren though recently hired Monica Harris for voter registration drives. She has been convicted for voter fraud with registering voters. Jill LaVine who works in the office of Sacramento's Registrar of voters also said that people reported having their registration changed to Republican without their consent. As for the race, I am going to keep it at Lean Democratic, mostly due to the Sacramento suburbs' Democratic trend and Bera's campaigning skills. Lungren though is proving he is fighting to save his seat so he may turn the tables.
California's 8th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 36%, Whitman 52%
Demographics: 8% African American, 35% Hispanic, 50% White
Safe Republican
The 42% Obama percentage makes this district too Republican to elect a Democrat in the foreseeable future so the Republican primary will be the important contest in this race. Candidates for the 8th district include Victorville city councilwoman Angela Valles (R), Victorville mayor Ryan McEachron (R) and Hesperia city councilman Bill Jensen (R). Jensen plans to run on the tea party platform while Eachron seems to have a more moderate platform. He does not mention the tea party once on his website. Although the 8th district's Republicans are mostly conservative, the conservative candidates could split the vote, allowing McEachron to consolidate the less conservative Republicans and win the nomination.
Update:
Assembly Paul Cook (R) and Brad Mitzelfelt (R) have jumped into the race too. Cook has received many local endorsements while Mitzelfelt has been successful at raising money. McEachron now has a rockier path to the nomination but with all these strong Republicans running, it is possible they can split the vote enough to allow a Democrat to enter the top two primary (but the district is too Republican to elect a Democrat.)
California's 9th Congressional District: Jerry McNerney (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 51%, Whitman 42%
Demographics: 9% African American, 14% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 37% White
Hispanic CVAP: 23%
Likely Democratic
McNerney has consistently faced close elections in the current 11th district which voted for Obama by nine points. In the 9th district though, Obama won by 15 points so McNerney will be much safer here. The district becomes more Democratic because it gains heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Stockton and Antioch. 24 year old law student Ricky Gill (R) plans to challenge McNerney and has already raised $800,000. McNerney though has defeated tough candidates before, including former House Resources Chairman Richard Pombo (R) in a less Democratic district. Also, 2012 should not be a Republican year so McNerney should probably win although I expect the DCCC to spend money here.
Update:
Gill has consistently been outraising McNerney so this race is worth watching. Still though, McNerney faces a safer district that even Whitman could not win (she won McNerney's district from 2010 though,) and it depends on whether the independent voters will be willing to vote for a 24 year old without any political or business experience besides going to law school (which a large number of our congressional representatives have done.) McNerney is a strong campaigner so I expect him to win but I am moving this race to Lean Democratic.
Lean Democratic
California's 10th Congressional District: Jeff Denham (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 49%
Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 46% White
Hispanic CVAP: 25%
Lean Republican
The 10th district represents southern San Joaquin County which is split between Republican leaning Manteca and Democratic leaning Tracy. The 10th district then represents all of Republican leaning Stanislaus County. Also, Rep. Jeff Denham (R) from the current 19th district which voted 46% for Obama, compared to the 10th district's 50% Obama, plans to run here. Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) who represents part of the 10th district then decided to retire. Denham though is experienced with tough races because he consistently won the 12th State Senate District although Obama won 59% there and even Kerry won the district. The Democrats recruited a strong candidate though, Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D) who the DCCC is strongly supporting.
Update:
I originally wrote this race off, thinking that the 50% Obama number in this district was too low to elect a Democrat but Hernandez is running a strong campaign. He outraised Denham in the last quarter although Denham still has the upper hand in cash. The DCCC will definitely spend money here to help their preferred candidate. The Republicans also tried to prevent Hernandez from mentioning his occupation as astronaut on the June 5th top two primary ballot because he left NASA in 2011. A judge rejected the Republican challenge. In response to the Republicans, Hernandez then released this video http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/03/29/candidate_challenged_over_being_an_astronaut.html which I highly recommend. This shows his campaign skills and suggests he can run a strong race against Denham.
I am therefore going to tentatively move this race to Tossup but it could shift back to lean Republican.
California's 11th Congressional District: George Miller (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 28%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 61%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 9% African American, 13% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 52% White
Safe Democratic
George Miller should have no trouble winning this heavily Democratic district representing Richmond and central Contra Costa County.
California's 12th Congressional District: Nancy Pelosi (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 78%, Whitman 16%
Demographics: 6% African American, 31% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 44% White
Safe Democratic
Besides gaining part of the Sunset District, Pelosi's district does not change. It remains located in heavily Democratic San Francisco.
California's 13th Congressional District: Barbara Lee (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 87%, McCain 10%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 84%, Whitman 11%
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White
Safe Democratic
Lee's district gains Alameda and San Leandro. Besides these changes, her district remains the same. It is still one of California's most Democratic districts.
California's 14th Congressional District: Jackie Speier (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 73%, McCain 24%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 66%, Whitman 28%
Demographics: 31% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 37% White
Safe Democratic
Speier's district does not undergo major changes. It retains most of San Mateo County and remains heavily Democratic.
California's 15th Congressional District: Pete Stark (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 67%, McCain 30%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 59%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 7% African American, 27% Asian, 23% Hispanic, 37% White
Safe Democratic
Stark gains San Ramon and Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore and these changes make his district a bit more Republican. He may face a primary challenge from Rohit Khanna (D) who is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Commerce Department and raised $1.2 million for a possible race. If he runs for Stark's seat, he could make the primary very close.
Update:
Stark is indeed facing a tough challenge. Khanna declined running but Dublin City Councilmember Eric Swalwell (D) decided to challenge Stark. As a representative since 1972, Stark should have had an easy race but Swalwell's campaign skills are making this a tough race. Swalwell has recently received the endorsements of the Contra Costa times, the Hayward Daily review and the San Francisco Chronicle. The first sentence of the Chronicle's endorsement is, "Pete Stark should have retired by now." Stark though has received endorsements from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) and the California Teachers Association. When Stark first ran for Congress in 1972, he criticized the incumbent as being old and out of touch with the district's voters. That is 31 year old Swalwell's theme as he criticizes Stark for accusing Swalwell of bribery without any supporting evidence and accusing conservative leaning SF Chronicle Reporter Debra Saunders for contributing to Swalwell's campaign. Swalwell is highlighting other gaffes of Stark's which include calling a female Republican U.S House member a "wh*re" and calling a male Republican U.S House member "a little wimp." Swalwell has less money but he may be able to win by winning big margins in the Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore areas recently added to the district and peeling away support in Stark's old district's territory by highlighting Stark's disconnect with the district. No Republican is running so expect both Democrats to advance to the top two and have this fight continue to November.
Safe Democratic, Lean Stark
California's 16th Congressional District: Jim Costa (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Demographics: 9% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 25% White
Hispanic CVAP: 41% Hispanic
Likely Democratic
Costa's district moves north as it retains Democratic parts of Fresno and gains Madera and Merced Counties. Merced County is a swing county but Madera County is Republican but trending Democratic. Although Costa faced a tough reelection in 2010, he should win during more neutral years in this district. In 2010, Costa had a close race due to Republican margins in Kings County but Kings County is no longer in his district so Costa has a stronger chance to win.
Update: Costa looks like he will cruise to reelection easily, barring any major scandals or gaffes. Brian Whelan (R), the likely GOP nominee has a warchest of only $106,000 and for a Republican to win in this Democratic leaning district, he or she needs to outraise the Democrat. Costa should have no trouble here.
Likely Democratic
California's 17th Congressional District: Mike Honda (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 28%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 61%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 49% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 27% White
Safe Democratic
Honda's district almost becomes an Asian majority district and if population trends continue, the district should become Asian majority. Honda remains safe from a Republican challenge. Although Honda does not live in this district, I expect him to run here because this district contains most of his current district.
California's 18th Congressional District: Anna Eshoo (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 27%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 60%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 19% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 58% White
Safe Democratic
Eshoo's district does not change much and remains heavily Democratic.
California's 19th Congressional District: Zoe Lofgren (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 60%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 26% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 27% White
Hispanic CVAP: 29%
Safe Democratic
Lofgren's district gains Morgan Hill but besides this change, her district retains most of its current lines and remains Democratic.
California's 20th Congressional District: Sam Farr (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 71%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 39% White
Hispanic CVAP: 28%
Safe Democratic
Farr's district does not make major changes. It gains some precincts in Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties but remains anchored in Central California and is heavily Democratic.
California's 21st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 47%, Whitman 44%
Demographics: 71% Hispanic, 19% White
Hispanic CVAP: 49%
Tossup
The 21st district represents heavily Hispanic areas in the southern Central Valley. It contains large portions of Costa's current district but Costa decided to run in the new 16th district so the 21st district lacks an incumbent. Although the district has a high Hispanic population, the Hispanic turnout is usually low so the district is a swing district. It is trending Democratic though because despite underperforming Obama throughout the state, Brown nearly equaled Obama's performance in the 21st district. The Republicans have a strong candidate for the 21st district though. State Assembly member David Valadao (R) is running and he easily beat Fran Florez (D) for the State Assembly seat. State Assembly member Michael Rubio (D) originally planned to run but he left the race. Democrats hope Florez's son, former State Senate Majority Leader Dean Florez (D) decides to run.
Update:
The Democrats have found a candidate, Blong Xiong (D), a Hmong city councilmember from Fresno. At first, I was worried he would not be a strong candidate because he did not even live in the 21st district but he has proven to be a strong fundraiser by raising money from the Hmong community. Although Valadao still has a slight lead, Xiong can make it very close.
Tossup
California's 22nd Congressional District: Devin Nunes (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 59%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 45% Hispanic, 42% White
Hispanic CVAP: 30%
Safe Republican
Nunes's district becomes smaller but remains heavily Republican and centered around Tulare County and conservative Fresno suburbs.
California's 23rd Congressional District: Kevin McCarthy (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 36%, McCain 61%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 33%, Whitman 58%
Demographics: 36% Hispanic, 51% White
Hispanic CVAP: 23%
Safe Republican
McCarthy's district loses all of its San Luis Obispo County territory and becomes more centered around Kern and Tulare Counties. The district remains heavily Republican and is McCain's best district in California.
California's 24th Congressional District: Lois Capps (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 46%, Whitman 46%
Demographics: 34% Hispanic, 57% White
Lean Democratic
Before 2002, Capps ran in a district with similar lines to the 24th and faced competitive races. In 2002, she received a safer district and won easily in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010. The district's new lines though remove heavily Democratic Oxnard while adding the conservative interiors of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. I lived in Santa Barbara for a few years so I realized how Santa Barbara County seems to be a small version of California. It has beach communities, agricultural based communities, upscale liberals, county club Republicans, college liberals, heavily Hispanic communities, and conservative inland communities. Like California, Santa Barbara County has trended Democratic. Gore won by only a few points but Obama won 60% of the vote there. San Luis Obispo County in the northern part of the district has trended Democratic too. Santa Barbara County swung toward the Republicans though in 2010 because turnout in UCSB was low. If Capps wants to win in 2012, she needs to increase turnout there. Her challenger is former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado (R) who is a moderate. Capps is a strong campaigner and has survived tough challenges in the 90s when the district was less Democratic. Being named the "nicest member of Congress" by the Washingtonian magazine does not hurt her chances either.
Update:
In recent months, Capps' election prospects have greatly increased. Although Maldonado may be popular with voters in the San Luis Obispo part of the district, he does not seem popular in fundraising circles. Right before the end of each fundraising quarter, he loaned his campaign $250,000. Capps leads the fundraising race with $1,322,000 to Maldonado's $492,000. This is helpful for Capps because Maldonado is facing a challenge from tea party candidate Chris Mitchum (R). As someone who lived in Santa Barbara for a few years, I became pretty familiar with the voting patterns of the area and besides having a few moderates in Montecito and other parts of Santa Barbara, the rest of the county is extremely conservative and parts feel like Texas. If the top two system did not exist, Maldonado would probably loose because he could not win enough Republicans in the primary but Maldonado could advance to the top two by winning over independents. If Mitchum wants to win though, he needs to step up his fundraising game, he has only $114,000 on hand. Even if he does not win, he will force Maldonado to spend money against him, further depleting Maldonado's money so Capps can have an easier time outspending him during the general.
Status: Likely Democratic
California's 25th Congressional District: Buck McKeon (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 48%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 39%, Whitman 52%
Demographics: 8% African American, 8% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 46% White
Safe Republican
Although Lancaster and Palmdale are trending Democratic quickly, Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and McKeon's popularity will keep this district safely in the Republican column.
California's 26th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 46%, Whitman 47%
Demographics: 6% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Hispanic CVAP: 26%
Lean Democratic
Gallegly recently announced his retirement which makes this race easier for Democrats. His district became more Democratic with the addition of Oxnard and his home of Simi Valley was placed in Buck McKeon's (R) district. There are already five Democrats running though. They include Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock (D), retired longshoreman Zeke Ruelas, Oxnard Harbor District President Jess Herrera (D), Westlake Village Businessman David Cruz (D) and Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett (D). Bennett represents Democratic leaning Ventura City as a Supervisor, is popular and well known throughout the district. Cruz and Herrera though are getting support from Hispanic groups and should win support from the district's large Hispanic population in the primary. Pollock is from Republican leaning Moorpark so if he wins the nomination, he could make inroads there. Most pundits agree though that Bennett is the frontrunner in the primary. On the Republican side, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (R) from Thousand Oaks has announced. Other potential candidates include State Senator Tony Strickland (R), and Moorpark City Councilman Keith Millhouse (R). Parks should do well with moderate Republicans while Strickland appeals to the district's more conservative voters.
Update:
So much has changed in the race since I last posted about it. Linda Parks (I) has changed her party affiliation to independent and Steve Bennett (D) has dropped out of the race, worrying the three Democrats in the race would split the field and prevent a clear winner. It looked possible Strickland would face a weak Democrat in the general election until Assmblywoman Julia Browley (D) declared her candidacy for the 26th district. She has raised the most money of the Democrats although it is not as much as Strickland's $782,000. Parks though has only raised $119,000 and had a strange ad where she randomly said, "My favorite ice cream is rocky road." It does not make sense to me why she said that. Brownley though received endorsements from Senators Barbara Boxer (D) and Dianne Feinstein (D) and Brownley is getting a boost from EMILY's List who is sending out a mailer telling Democrats to vote for her. Expect this race to be very close to this finish line.
Status: Tossup
California's 27th Congressional District: Judy Chu (D) vs. David Dreier (R)?
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 55%, Whitman 39%
Demographics: 37% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 29% White
Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic if Dreier runs
The 27th district is a combination of Chu's and Dreier's districts while representing foothill communities currently in Dreier's district and heavily Asian areas such as Monterey Park in Chu's current district. Although Dreier is moderate and popular, the 61% Obama number should be high enough to protect Chu. Also, she is a very strong campaigner and a popular incumbent.
Update:
Dreier decided not to challenge Chu for this seat. Therefore, Chu will have no challenge winning reelection.
Status: Safe Democratic
California's 28th Congressional District: Adam Schiff (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 30%
Demographics: 14% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 55% White
Safe Democratic
Schiff's district loses Pasadena and gains West Hollywood. His district remains heavily Democratic.
California's 29th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 23%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 68%, Whitman 24%
Demographics: 8% Asian, 69% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic
The commission created this new district as a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. Although the district contains territory from both Reps. Howard Berman's (D) and Brad Sherman's (D) districts, they both decided not to run here (see California's 30th Congressional district.) The frontrunner for the 29th district is Los Angeles City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D). He has received support from important political figures such as California's Assembly Speaker John Perez (D) and Rep. Howard Berman.
Update:
Cardenas is facing no serious opposition so he should win the seat easily.
California's 30th Congressional District: Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 66%, McCain 31%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 36%
Demographics: 12% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 53% White
Safe Democratic
The commission combined the homes of Reps. Berman and Sherman so there will be a contentious primary in this district. Some pundits have suggested that Sherman should run in the open 26th district in Ventura County in order to avoid a possible primary loss in the 30th district. Although no polls have been released for the primary, Berman has gained many endorsements, with 23 representatives endorsing him compared to two for Sherman (Reps. Judy Chu (D) and Grace Napolitano (D).) It is unclear how many voters will be swayed by all the endorsements. This does not indicate Sherman will lose though. He received the endorsement of Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom (D), State Controller John Chiang (D), former President Bill Clinton (D) and has raised $3.7 million, more than Berman's $2.2 million but Berman is raising money quickly. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) hosted a large fundraiser for Berman recently. This primary will be very close and could attract national attention.
Update:
This race is shaping up to be one of the biggest Dem vs. Dem battles in California. Although Sherman represents 58% of the district, he is still facing Berman who has the high profile endorsements. An April poll showed Sherman ahead 40%-17% with a Republican Tom Reed at 12%. Berman has not released an internal poll showing him ahead and has not released an internal poll at all. Due to California's top two system though, it is possible both Democrats will enter the top two primary so Berman will have more time to raise money and overcome Sherman's 4 million to 2.4 million dollar cash advantage. Sherman has been saving his money though, suggesting he believes Berman and him will enter the top two primary. Expect this race to drag on to November.
Status: Safe Democratic
California's 31st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Demographics: 12% African American, 7% Asian, 49% Hispanic, 30% White
Hispanic CVAP: 35%
Lean Democratic
This district represents Republican leaning Rancho Cucamonga and Democratic leaning San Bernardino and Colton. The district as a whole leans Democratic and is trending Democratic as Hispanics continue to move into the district. Although Lewis lives in the new 31st district, he does not represent much territory in it and he may decide to either retire or run in the more conservative 8th district. Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) lives in this district but recently announced his retirement. Rep. Gary Miller (R) who represented eastern Orange County and Diamond Bar in Los Angeles County plans to run here instead. Anyway, Rep. Joe Baca (D) lives in this district but decided to run in the more Democratic 35th district so the Democratic field is open here. Two Democratic candidates, Renea Wickman (D) and Russ Warner (D) have announced plans to run. Wickman is a community activist working with youth and ran unsuccessfully in 2010 for the 63rd Assembly district. Warner is a businessman from Rancho Cucamonga who is more moderate than Wickman is, especially on issues such as immigration. This could be difficult for him in this district with a large Hispanic population. The frontrunner though is Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) who recently announced his candidacy.
Update:
Miller is winning the fundraising war, already raising $1,170,000. Pete Aguilar (D) has only raised $222,000 but the Democratic lean should probably be enough to push him over the top. The fact that Miller is not well known in the area should help Aguilar as well as Miller's ethics issues. Miller also faces a primary challenge now from Republican State Senator Bob Dutton (R) but Dutton's fundraising is far below Miller's and Dutton has received few endorsements so it is unlikely Dutton should advance to the top two. Overall, the district's Democratic lean and trend should push Aguilar over the top but Miller can make it close.
Lean Democratic
California's 32nd Congressional District: Grace Napolitano (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 15% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic
Napolitano's district loses her home but I expect her to run here because it contains most of her current district. Dreier's home is here so he may run here but I doubt he would win in a 62% Obama district.
Update:
Dreier does not plan to run here so Napolitano should have an easy race.
California's 33rd Congressional District: Henry Waxman (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 64%, McCain 33%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 55%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 13% Asian, 11% Hispanic, 69% White
Safe Democratic
Waxman's district gains large portions of the current 36th district along the coast. It remains heavily Democratic and upscale.
California's 34th Congressional District: Xavier Beccara (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 77%, McCain 19%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 76%, Whitman 16%
Demographics: 20% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 9% White
Safe Democratic
Beccara's district does not undergo major changes. It remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.
California's 35th Congressional District: Joe Baca (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 64%, McCain 32%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 7% African American, 69% Hispanic, 16% White
Hispanic CVAP: 52%
Safe Democratic
This district should be too Democratic to elect a Republican representative but the Democratic primary will be close. Rep. Joe Baca (D) who represented parts of the district plans to run here and so does State Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D). Both representatives are popular and McLeod defeated Baca's son in her 2006 State Senate primary.
Update:
When this district was drawn, McLeod announced, "I'm in I'm in!" She may be in but it does not look like she will win. Baca has outraised her 2-1 and he represents 61% of the district so most of the district's residents are familiar with him already. Also, McLeod does not have many endorsements while Baca does. Although McLeod is well known in the district, it may not be enough for her to beat Baca.
Safe Democratic
California's 36th Congressional District: Mary Bono Mack (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 49%
Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 44% White
Hispanic CVAP: 27%
Lean Republican
The district voted for Obama and is trending Democratic but Bono Mack is a very popular representative and is moderate. Also, openly gay Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougent (D) has not made plans to run for the seat although he would be a strong candidate. He ran in 2010 and performed well against Bono Mack. The Democrats found a candidate to challenge Bono Mack though. Dr. Raul Ruiz (D), a physician has announced his candidacy and he is the first Hispanic candidate to challenge Bono Mack for her seat in a district with a large and fast growing Hispanic population. Bono Mack's moderate positions and popularity make her formidable though.
Update:
Ruiz has been a great fundraiser, outraising Bono-Mack last quarter although Bono-Mack still retains the COH advantage by nearly 2-1. Still though, the COH advantage may matter less now that the DCCC has taken interest in this race. Ruiz is a strong candidate and if the DCCC support can boost him up in this district, Democrats could have a strong shot at winning.
Lean Republican
California's 37th Congressional District: Karen Bass (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 79%, McCain 15%
Demographics: 25% African American, 9% Asian, 39% Hispanic, 24% White
African American CVAP: 34%, Hispanic CVAP, 21%
Safe Democratic
Bass retains most of her current territory and represents heavily Democratic areas with a large African American CVAP. She should be safe here.
California's 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 14% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 19% White
Hispanic CVAP: 51%
Safe Democratic
Although this district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative, there will be a competitive primary here. State Senator Ron Calderon (D) is challenging Sanchez here. Although Sanchez is a popular representative, she has represented only a small part of the district while she is unfamiliar with the voters in the Montebello area where Calderon lives. She needs to introduce herself to voters in that area. I expect she will receive support from other congressional representatives though so she may win.
Update:
Calderon decided not to run. Sanchez has a clear field.
Safe Democratic
California's 39th Congressional District: Ed Royce (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 49%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 38%, Whitman 54%
Demographics: 29% Asian, 33% Hispanic, 34% White
Safe Republican
Although this district may be trending Democratic because Democratic voters are moving into it, this district remains Republican at a local level. Reps. Miller and Royce were both drawn into the district but Miller decided to run in CA-31 instead so Royce has the field to himself.
Update:
School Board member Jay Chen (D) is running here and is a strong candidate but the district's strong Republican lean at a local level (and statewide too, Whitman won here by 16 points,) should prevent Chen from becoming competitive. Later in the decade though, Democrats may have a real shot at winning this district.
Safe Republican
California's 40th Congressional District: Lucille Roybal Allard (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 77%, McCain 19%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 73%, Whitman 19%
Demographics: 6% African American, 86% Hispanic, 5% White
Hispanic CVAP: 73%
Safe Democratic
Allard's district becomes the most heavily Hispanic district in the country with an 86% Hispanic population. It also remains heavily Democratic.
California's 41st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 38%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 52%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 10% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 26% White
Hispanic CVAP: 37%
Likely Democratic
The commission created this new Hispanic majority district combining communities of interest in northern Riverside County. The district also voted for Obama and Brown by double digit margins so Democrats have an advantage here. The Democrat running is openly gay Riverside Community College School Board Member Mark Takano (D). Takano ran for this seat under similar lines in 1992 and lost by 550 votes when the area was less Democratic. Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) who represents most of the district is challenging Takano. Although Taviglione is popular and well known, the 59% Obama number in this Democratic trending district and Takano's campaign skills may be too high for him to overcome.
Update:
The candidates are nearly tied in fundraising from last quarter. The DCCC has been working hard though to help Takano which increases the Democrats' chances of winning here.
Likely Democratic
California's 42nd Congressional District: Ken Calvert (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 43%, McCain 54%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 56%
Demographics: 9% Asian, 36% Hispanic, 47% White
Safe Republican
In 2008, Calvert faced a tough race not only because of his ethics problems but also because the district was trending Democratic quickly and voted for Obama. In this new map though, Calvert is much safer by losing Democratic Riverside and gaining more Republican parts of Riverside County.
California's 43rd Congressional District: Maxine Waters (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 75%, McCain 22%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 69%, Whitman 24%
Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Asian, 46% Hispanic, 15% White
African American CVAP 33%, Hispanic CVAP 29%
Safe Democratic
Waters's district remains heavily Democratic but the Hispanic CVAP is increasing and is almost as high as the African American CVAP. This creates the possibility of a Hispanic candidate challenging Waters in the primary and winning due to support from Hispanics. Waters's ethics problems though create an even larger opening for a primary challenger too.
Update:
No strong Democrat has emerged to challenge Waters so she will remain for at least another two years in Congress.
Safe Democratic
California's 44th Congressional District: Laura Richardson (D) vs. Janice Hahn (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 81%, McCain 15%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 77%, Whitman 15%
Demographics: 17% African American, 68% Hispanic, 7% White
African American CVAP 28%, Hispanic CVAP 49%
Safe Democratic
This district will see a tight primary race for the Democrats. Only a small portion of Hahn's district is in the new 44th but Hahn has a strong shot at winning not only because she is popular with the district's many working class voters but also because Richardson has ethics problems. Hahn is a former city councilmember from Los Angeles and represented large portions of the district in the city council. A poll showed her leading Richardson 47-26 but the poll was conducted in August so it may be outdated.
Update:
Hahn recently received the endorsement of the California Labor Federation which is important in this district with a strong union presence. Also, she's been endorsed by the California Democratic Party and is even making inroads among the district's African American community, although Richardson is African American. Hahn also outraised Richardson more than 2-1 last quarter. Due to the top two system, this race should continue to November but the June primary will show where the candidates stand in the polls.
Safe Democratic
California's 45th Congressional District: John Campbell (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 51%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 34%, Whitman 59%
Demographics: 21% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 56% White
Safe Republican
Campbell's district loses territory on the Orange County coast and gains more conservative towns inland such as Lake Forest. Although Irvine is Democratic leaning, the rest of the district leans Republican and should keep this district strongly in the Republican column.
Update:
The Democratic mayor of Irvine Suhkee Kang (D) will challenge Campbell. Irvine makes up more than 25% of the district so Kang is well known to many voters in the district. Campbell though will be a hard incumbent to defeat because he has raised over $1 million. Also, the district may have been close on the Presidential level but on the statewide 2010 Gubernatorial race, Whitman won this district by 25 points which shows this district still votes heavily Republican at a local level. At the end of the decade though, a strong candidate like Kang could run a very competitive race. Since Kang is a strong candidate, I am moving the ranking to Likely Republican.
Likely Republican
California's 46th Congressional District: Loretta Sanchez (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 12% Asian, 67% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic
Sanchez's district remains similar to its current form; heavily Hispanic and Democratic.
California's 47th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 42%
Demographics: 8% African American, 21% Asian, 34% Hispanic, 34% White
Likely Democratic
State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) is facing Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R) in this district combining the city of Long Beach with some Orange County communities such as Garden Grove. As of last October though, DeLong had outraised Lowenthal but the district has a large Democratic base and if Obama motivates the Democratic base, Lowenthal should receive a large boost and be able to win.
Update:
Lowenthal's position seems a bit stronger now. He has started to raise money although he still trails DeLong. The June Primary will be a good barometer on how strong Lowenthal is in the district.
Likely Democratic
California's 48th Congressional District: Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 51%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 58%
Demographics: 17% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 59% White
Safe Republican
Rohrabacher's district loses the entire Los Angeles County portion and gains more of the Orange County coast. It remains Republican and safe for him.
California's 49th Congressional District: Darrell Issa (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 62% White
Safe Republican
Issa's district becomes more Democratic by gaining Carlsbad and Del Mar which were formerly in Bilbray's district. Issa's district still remains safe for him but if Democratic trends continue and Issa retires, this district could become competitive. Bilbray faced competitive races in 2006 and 2008 in a district with similar territory.
California's 50th Congressional District: Duncan Hunter (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 39%, McCain 58%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 30%, Whitman 66%
Demographics: 30% Hispanic, 59% White
Safe Republican
Hunter should be safe in this district representing inland San Diego County. It was Whitman's best district in California and McCain's best district south of Bakersfield.
California's 51st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 32%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 58%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 68% Hispanic, 14% White
Safe Democratic
Rep. Bob Filner (D) represented most of this district in Congress but the seat is open because he plans to run for mayor. State Sen. Juan Vargas (D) is running to replace him. Vargas has an advantage because he is well known in the San Diego portion of the district and his State Senate district covers almost the entire new 51st district. Denise Duchney (D), a former State Senator from Vargas's district is running too so there will be a competitive primary for this seat that should vote Democratic in the general election.
Update:
Vargas seems to have the lead in this district, winning endorsements from important groups such as the California Democratic Party. It remains to be seen whether Vargas will advance into the top two with a Republican candidate or Duchney.
Safe Democratic
California's 52nd Congressional District: Brian Bilbray (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 43%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 50%
Demographics: 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 62% White
Tossup
Bilbray's district still represents northern San Diego City but the district suddenly jumps from 50% Obama to 55% Obama. He now faces three strong Democratic challengers: Assemblywoman Lori Saldana (D), businessman Bob Nascenzi (D) and Port of San Diego Commission Chairman Scott Peters (D). Most pundits believe that Saldana and Peters will be the Democratic frontrunners for the seat. Bilbray though has fended off difficult challenges for the seat in 2006 and 2008 but the new district is more Democratic so he should worry.
Update:
Saldana and Peters have become the two main rivals for the spot to challenge Bilbray and they are in a close fight. Peters has the money advantage, outraising Saldana 3-1 in the 1st Quarter of 2012. They both have strong endorsements too, Peters recently received an endorsement from the San Diego CityBeat for example. Saldana may lack cash but she is more well known in the 52nd district because she represented large portions of it. She recently released an internal poll showing Bilbray with 32% but Saldana at 18% and Peters at 10%. 43% of the voters are undecided though so Peters has room to grow and internal polls tend to lean toward the candidate who conducted them but Peters has not released an internal poll to counter Saldana's, suggesting Saldana may have a lead. Also, Bob Filner endorsed Peters and Saldana responded by saying, "That's one failing campaign trying to prop up another failing campaign." Then once she realized her gaffe, she then endorsed Filner for mayor while Peters could not return the favor because of his ties to the two other mayoral candidates. Those other candidates are a Republican and an Independent so this hurts Peters among Democrats but it could help him win over independents.
Tossup
California's 53rd Congressional District: Susan Davis (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 36%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 52%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Asian, 32% Hispanic, 43% White
Safe Democratic
Davis’s district becomes less Democratic as it gains some San Diego suburbs. The 61% Obama number though should keep her safe.
On November 2nd, 2010, California voters passed Proposition 20 allowing a commission composed of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans and 4 Decline to States to redraw my state's congressional districts. Previously, the state legislature drew the maps. In the House of Representatives, the representatives represent voters in districts the legislature draws. In recent years though, states such as Washington and California have chosen commissions to draw districts without political influence. In California, the commission traveled around the state to hear public comments from citizens like me and talk to groups such as MALDEF. On June 10th, 2011, the California Redistricting Commission released their first set of maps for California after hearing public comments from meetings such as this one on May 20th that I attended. The guidelines set for the commission were to draw districts that follow the VRA, stick to county boundaries as much as possible and preserve communities of interest. They approved the final maps in mid August. Also, this is the first election year where all California Congressional elections will have a top two primary where all candidates run in the June 5th primary and the top two vote getters advance to the general election on November 6th.
Overall, the Commission’s new Congressional map produces 28 Safe Democratic seats, five Likely Democratic seats, three Lean Democratic seats, four Tossup seats, one lean Republican seat, one Likely Republican seat and 11 Safe Republican seats. This totals to 36 seats expected to vote Democratic with 13 seats expected to vote Republican for Congress, suggesting Democrats could win 2-6 seats under California’s new map.
A few notes: CVAP represents the citizen voting age population.
Here are the maps of the districts drawn in 2002: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=CA
Here are the maps of the new districts: http://www.mpimaps.com/mapanalysis/california-congressional-delegation/
California's 1st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 53%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 53%
Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 79% White
Safe Republican
Rep. Wally Herger (R) recently announced his retirement here. State Senator Doug LaMalfa (R) will probably run here. He should have no trouble winning reelection in this heavily rural and Republican district representing the Sierras and the Central Valley in Northern California.
California's 2nd Congressional District: Open (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 71%, McCain 25%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 30%
Demographics: 17% Hispanic, 73% White
Safe Democratic
This district which represents Marin County and the North Coast is heavily Democratic so it should not elect a Republican. The Democratic Primary though has been extremely competitive. Four Marin County Democrats are running including State Assembly member Jared Huffman (D), Progressive activist Norman Solomon (D), Marin County Supervisor Susan Adams (D), and entrepreneur Stacy Lawson (D). The lone Republican is business owner Dan Roberts (R). Most polls have showed Huffman in the lead with Solomon as the close second. Due to California's top two primary systems, two Democrats can run against each other in the general election so Solomon is trying to run to the left of Huffman. The strategy seems to be working because most polls show Solomon in 2nd place. Also, Solomon has gained endorsements from progressives such as Raul Griljava (D) from Arizona. The question is how important will these endorsements be in the 2nd district. Huffman has received endorsements from State Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and three former State Assembly members who represented parts of the 2nd district. As for Adams, her campaign theme of healthy communities and healthy families is appealing but she needs to get more endorsements. Also, for more details on the race for the 2nd district, read my post here: http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/2011/11/candidates-forum-for-californias-2nd.html
Update:
Eleven candidates have entered this race now and a new poll shows Jared Huffman with 24% and his closest competitor Stacy Lawson has 9%. Susan Adams is at 5% and so are the Republican candidates. Stacy Lawson actually out raised Huffman during the most recent quarter. Due to California's top two primary system, a Democrat vs. Democrat race is very likely. Also, Stacy Lawson has been rising in the polls due to her extensive ads where she talks about bringing jobs to the middle class. She has also raised more money than Huffman during the 1st Quarter of 2012 and is a rich businesswoman. I was in Humboldt County in late April and her ads were everywhere on the radio while I did not hear many of them on the Marin radio. This suggests Stacy Lawson is trying to win over more working class voters in Humboldt County to offset Jared Huffman's margins in Marin County where he is well known and his environmental views are popular. There are many environmentalists in Humboldt County too so Jared Huffman needs to highlight his environmental views. As for Stacy Lawson, she is a strong pro business Democrat similar to former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) from the Walnut Creek area. Stacy Lawson would play well in that area if she ran there but the North Coast district may not match her views enough for her to win. As for Solomon, he is actually starting to raise money and has received endorsements from Rep. Raul Griljava (D), Rep. John Conyers (D) and actor Sean Penn who used to live in the 2nd district (I went to his daughter's high school actually.)
California's 3rd Congressional District: John Garamendi (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 42%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 43%
Demographics: 28% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 51% White
Lean Democratic
Garamendi used to represent inland Contra Costa County as well as Fairfield in Solano County but his district is now more Republican with the addition of Sutter, Yuba, Colusa and Glenn Counties. Although Obama and Brown still won the district, the Republican areas in the district's northern part make the district competitive. The Republican field consists of Sutter County District Attorney Tony Carlos (R) and Colusa County Supervisor Kim Vann (R). Carlos will be a strong candidate in the general election because of his moderate views on immigration in a district where Hispanics are 16% of the CVAP (Citizen Voting Age population.) He can make inroads among the Hispanic voters in Solano County where Garamendi needs to win large margins in order to win. Carlos may be too moderate for voters in the primary because the Republican electorate in the 3rd district is very conservative. As for Vann, most pundits consider her the frontrunner. I see Garamendi winning though because Vann's primary campaign theme is agricultural issues. Those issues are important to voters in the northern part of the district but if Vann wants to win, she needs to make inroads in Solano County and agriculture is less important there. Also, Obama's presence on the ticket should increase turnout in Yolo County where Garamendi needs a strong turnout to win.
Update:
I drove through the northern part of the 3rd district recently too and I saw many signs for Vann but a few Garamendi signs too. Most polls show Vann going into the top two race. Right now, I am going to say Garamendi wins because although 55% Obama is not enough for a safe Democratic district and Garamendi only has $225,000 on hand to Vann's $217,000, Garamendi is popular with agriculture voters who live in the more Republican parts of the district so he can make introads there. Just recently for example, he passed a flood insurance bill which is popular with farmers. Also,Vann is from Colusa County, a rural area in part of the district. She therefore may not understand suburban Solano County's issues very well and be unable to cut into Garamendi's margins there (Garamendi needs a big win in Solano County in order to win districtwide.) Also, with Obama on the ballot in 2012, Davis should turn out strongly for him. I am keeping the race at Lean Democratic due to the near tie in cash but Garamendi definitely has a lead.
California's 4th Congressional District: Tom McClintock (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 43%, McCain 54%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 78% White
Safe Republican
McClintock gains new territory in the Central Sierras but the new territory is rural and Republican like the rest of his district. He should have no trouble winning reelection here.
California's 5th Congressional District: Mike Thompson (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 26% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 53% White
Safe Democratic
Thompson faces unfamiliar territory by gaining Santa Rosa and the Martinez area. Although Rep. George Miller (D) lives in Martinez, he should run in the nearby district containing Richmond and Concord. Thompson should be safe from a primary challenge though and the 70% Obama number should ensure his reelection against a Republican.
California's 6th Congressional District: Doris Matsui (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 66%, Whitman 28%
Demographics: 13% African American, 27% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 39% White
Safe Democratic
Matsui's district remains similar to its current form. It is still heavily Democratic and safe for her.
California's 7th Congressional District: Dan Lungren (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 44%
Demographics: 8% African American, 14% Asian, 16% Hispanic, 57% White
Lean Democratic
In its 2006 edition, the Almanac of American Politics called Lungren's district safely Republican but in the last few years, the district's demographics have changed as the Sacramento suburbs have trended Democratic quickly. The Democrats gained a State Assembly seat in the Sacramento suburbs in 2010 and Democratic candidate Dr. Ami Bera (D) came within seven points of unseating Lungren in 2010, a heavily Republican year. Across the state, Jerry Brown (D) underperformed Obama statewide but in the Sacramento suburbs, he matched Obama's percentages. Also, Democrats gained a State Assembly seat in the Sacramento suburbs in 2010 (the only State Assembly seat to change hands that year,) further evidence the area is trending Democratic. The commission also decreased McCain's percentage in Lungren's district from 49% to 46%. This race should be very competitive because Bera is running again and he is a strong fundraiser (he outraised Lungren in 2010.) Also, 2012 should be more favorable to the Democrats than 2010 was.
Update:
At first, I thought that this race would be close but Bera would eventually win by 5 points. Lungren though has started fighting back and although Bera still leads with $1,148,000 cash on hand, Lungren is not too far away with $900,000 cash on hand. In 2010, Bera may have slipped by with fundraising because national politicians did not consider Lungren's district to be competitive. After Lungren's surprisingly narrow victory in 2010 though, national politicians are becoming interested in this race and will probably spend money here. Lungren though recently hired Monica Harris for voter registration drives. She has been convicted for voter fraud with registering voters. Jill LaVine who works in the office of Sacramento's Registrar of voters also said that people reported having their registration changed to Republican without their consent. As for the race, I am going to keep it at Lean Democratic, mostly due to the Sacramento suburbs' Democratic trend and Bera's campaigning skills. Lungren though is proving he is fighting to save his seat so he may turn the tables.
California's 8th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 36%, Whitman 52%
Demographics: 8% African American, 35% Hispanic, 50% White
Safe Republican
The 42% Obama percentage makes this district too Republican to elect a Democrat in the foreseeable future so the Republican primary will be the important contest in this race. Candidates for the 8th district include Victorville city councilwoman Angela Valles (R), Victorville mayor Ryan McEachron (R) and Hesperia city councilman Bill Jensen (R). Jensen plans to run on the tea party platform while Eachron seems to have a more moderate platform. He does not mention the tea party once on his website. Although the 8th district's Republicans are mostly conservative, the conservative candidates could split the vote, allowing McEachron to consolidate the less conservative Republicans and win the nomination.
Update:
Assembly Paul Cook (R) and Brad Mitzelfelt (R) have jumped into the race too. Cook has received many local endorsements while Mitzelfelt has been successful at raising money. McEachron now has a rockier path to the nomination but with all these strong Republicans running, it is possible they can split the vote enough to allow a Democrat to enter the top two primary (but the district is too Republican to elect a Democrat.)
California's 9th Congressional District: Jerry McNerney (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 51%, Whitman 42%
Demographics: 9% African American, 14% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 37% White
Hispanic CVAP: 23%
Likely Democratic
McNerney has consistently faced close elections in the current 11th district which voted for Obama by nine points. In the 9th district though, Obama won by 15 points so McNerney will be much safer here. The district becomes more Democratic because it gains heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Stockton and Antioch. 24 year old law student Ricky Gill (R) plans to challenge McNerney and has already raised $800,000. McNerney though has defeated tough candidates before, including former House Resources Chairman Richard Pombo (R) in a less Democratic district. Also, 2012 should not be a Republican year so McNerney should probably win although I expect the DCCC to spend money here.
Update:
Gill has consistently been outraising McNerney so this race is worth watching. Still though, McNerney faces a safer district that even Whitman could not win (she won McNerney's district from 2010 though,) and it depends on whether the independent voters will be willing to vote for a 24 year old without any political or business experience besides going to law school (which a large number of our congressional representatives have done.) McNerney is a strong campaigner so I expect him to win but I am moving this race to Lean Democratic.
Lean Democratic
California's 10th Congressional District: Jeff Denham (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 49%
Demographics: 40% Hispanic, 46% White
Hispanic CVAP: 25%
Lean Republican
The 10th district represents southern San Joaquin County which is split between Republican leaning Manteca and Democratic leaning Tracy. The 10th district then represents all of Republican leaning Stanislaus County. Also, Rep. Jeff Denham (R) from the current 19th district which voted 46% for Obama, compared to the 10th district's 50% Obama, plans to run here. Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D) who represents part of the 10th district then decided to retire. Denham though is experienced with tough races because he consistently won the 12th State Senate District although Obama won 59% there and even Kerry won the district. The Democrats recruited a strong candidate though, Astronaut Jose Hernandez (D) who the DCCC is strongly supporting.
Update:
I originally wrote this race off, thinking that the 50% Obama number in this district was too low to elect a Democrat but Hernandez is running a strong campaign. He outraised Denham in the last quarter although Denham still has the upper hand in cash. The DCCC will definitely spend money here to help their preferred candidate. The Republicans also tried to prevent Hernandez from mentioning his occupation as astronaut on the June 5th top two primary ballot because he left NASA in 2011. A judge rejected the Republican challenge. In response to the Republicans, Hernandez then released this video http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/03/29/candidate_challenged_over_being_an_astronaut.html which I highly recommend. This shows his campaign skills and suggests he can run a strong race against Denham.
I am therefore going to tentatively move this race to Tossup but it could shift back to lean Republican.
California's 11th Congressional District: George Miller (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 28%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 61%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 9% African American, 13% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 52% White
Safe Democratic
George Miller should have no trouble winning this heavily Democratic district representing Richmond and central Contra Costa County.
California's 12th Congressional District: Nancy Pelosi (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 78%, Whitman 16%
Demographics: 6% African American, 31% Asian, 15% Hispanic, 44% White
Safe Democratic
Besides gaining part of the Sunset District, Pelosi's district does not change. It remains located in heavily Democratic San Francisco.
California's 13th Congressional District: Barbara Lee (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 87%, McCain 10%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 84%, Whitman 11%
Demographics: 20% African American, 21% Asian, 21% Hispanic, 34% White
Safe Democratic
Lee's district gains Alameda and San Leandro. Besides these changes, her district remains the same. It is still one of California's most Democratic districts.
California's 14th Congressional District: Jackie Speier (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 73%, McCain 24%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 66%, Whitman 28%
Demographics: 31% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 37% White
Safe Democratic
Speier's district does not undergo major changes. It retains most of San Mateo County and remains heavily Democratic.
California's 15th Congressional District: Pete Stark (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 67%, McCain 30%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 59%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 7% African American, 27% Asian, 23% Hispanic, 37% White
Safe Democratic
Stark gains San Ramon and Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore and these changes make his district a bit more Republican. He may face a primary challenge from Rohit Khanna (D) who is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Commerce Department and raised $1.2 million for a possible race. If he runs for Stark's seat, he could make the primary very close.
Update:
Stark is indeed facing a tough challenge. Khanna declined running but Dublin City Councilmember Eric Swalwell (D) decided to challenge Stark. As a representative since 1972, Stark should have had an easy race but Swalwell's campaign skills are making this a tough race. Swalwell has recently received the endorsements of the Contra Costa times, the Hayward Daily review and the San Francisco Chronicle. The first sentence of the Chronicle's endorsement is, "Pete Stark should have retired by now." Stark though has received endorsements from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D) and the California Teachers Association. When Stark first ran for Congress in 1972, he criticized the incumbent as being old and out of touch with the district's voters. That is 31 year old Swalwell's theme as he criticizes Stark for accusing Swalwell of bribery without any supporting evidence and accusing conservative leaning SF Chronicle Reporter Debra Saunders for contributing to Swalwell's campaign. Swalwell is highlighting other gaffes of Stark's which include calling a female Republican U.S House member a "wh*re" and calling a male Republican U.S House member "a little wimp." Swalwell has less money but he may be able to win by winning big margins in the Dublin/Pleasanton/Livermore areas recently added to the district and peeling away support in Stark's old district's territory by highlighting Stark's disconnect with the district. No Republican is running so expect both Democrats to advance to the top two and have this fight continue to November.
Safe Democratic, Lean Stark
California's 16th Congressional District: Jim Costa (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 57%, McCain 40%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Demographics: 9% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 25% White
Hispanic CVAP: 41% Hispanic
Likely Democratic
Costa's district moves north as it retains Democratic parts of Fresno and gains Madera and Merced Counties. Merced County is a swing county but Madera County is Republican but trending Democratic. Although Costa faced a tough reelection in 2010, he should win during more neutral years in this district. In 2010, Costa had a close race due to Republican margins in Kings County but Kings County is no longer in his district so Costa has a stronger chance to win.
Update: Costa looks like he will cruise to reelection easily, barring any major scandals or gaffes. Brian Whelan (R), the likely GOP nominee has a warchest of only $106,000 and for a Republican to win in this Democratic leaning district, he or she needs to outraise the Democrat. Costa should have no trouble here.
Likely Democratic
California's 17th Congressional District: Mike Honda (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 69%, McCain 28%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 61%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 49% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 27% White
Safe Democratic
Honda's district almost becomes an Asian majority district and if population trends continue, the district should become Asian majority. Honda remains safe from a Republican challenge. Although Honda does not live in this district, I expect him to run here because this district contains most of his current district.
California's 18th Congressional District: Anna Eshoo (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 27%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 60%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 19% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 58% White
Safe Democratic
Eshoo's district does not change much and remains heavily Democratic.
California's 19th Congressional District: Zoe Lofgren (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 68%, McCain 29%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 60%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 26% Asian, 41% Hispanic, 27% White
Hispanic CVAP: 29%
Safe Democratic
Lofgren's district gains Morgan Hill but besides this change, her district retains most of its current lines and remains Democratic.
California's 20th Congressional District: Sam Farr (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 71%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 39% White
Hispanic CVAP: 28%
Safe Democratic
Farr's district does not make major changes. It gains some precincts in Santa Cruz and Santa Clara Counties but remains anchored in Central California and is heavily Democratic.
California's 21st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 47%, Whitman 44%
Demographics: 71% Hispanic, 19% White
Hispanic CVAP: 49%
Tossup
The 21st district represents heavily Hispanic areas in the southern Central Valley. It contains large portions of Costa's current district but Costa decided to run in the new 16th district so the 21st district lacks an incumbent. Although the district has a high Hispanic population, the Hispanic turnout is usually low so the district is a swing district. It is trending Democratic though because despite underperforming Obama throughout the state, Brown nearly equaled Obama's performance in the 21st district. The Republicans have a strong candidate for the 21st district though. State Assembly member David Valadao (R) is running and he easily beat Fran Florez (D) for the State Assembly seat. State Assembly member Michael Rubio (D) originally planned to run but he left the race. Democrats hope Florez's son, former State Senate Majority Leader Dean Florez (D) decides to run.
Update:
The Democrats have found a candidate, Blong Xiong (D), a Hmong city councilmember from Fresno. At first, I was worried he would not be a strong candidate because he did not even live in the 21st district but he has proven to be a strong fundraiser by raising money from the Hmong community. Although Valadao still has a slight lead, Xiong can make it very close.
Tossup
California's 22nd Congressional District: Devin Nunes (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 42%, McCain 55%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 59%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 45% Hispanic, 42% White
Hispanic CVAP: 30%
Safe Republican
Nunes's district becomes smaller but remains heavily Republican and centered around Tulare County and conservative Fresno suburbs.
California's 23rd Congressional District: Kevin McCarthy (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 36%, McCain 61%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 33%, Whitman 58%
Demographics: 36% Hispanic, 51% White
Hispanic CVAP: 23%
Safe Republican
McCarthy's district loses all of its San Luis Obispo County territory and becomes more centered around Kern and Tulare Counties. The district remains heavily Republican and is McCain's best district in California.
California's 24th Congressional District: Lois Capps (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 46%, Whitman 46%
Demographics: 34% Hispanic, 57% White
Lean Democratic
Before 2002, Capps ran in a district with similar lines to the 24th and faced competitive races. In 2002, she received a safer district and won easily in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010. The district's new lines though remove heavily Democratic Oxnard while adding the conservative interiors of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. I lived in Santa Barbara for a few years so I realized how Santa Barbara County seems to be a small version of California. It has beach communities, agricultural based communities, upscale liberals, county club Republicans, college liberals, heavily Hispanic communities, and conservative inland communities. Like California, Santa Barbara County has trended Democratic. Gore won by only a few points but Obama won 60% of the vote there. San Luis Obispo County in the northern part of the district has trended Democratic too. Santa Barbara County swung toward the Republicans though in 2010 because turnout in UCSB was low. If Capps wants to win in 2012, she needs to increase turnout there. Her challenger is former Lieutenant Governor Abel Maldonado (R) who is a moderate. Capps is a strong campaigner and has survived tough challenges in the 90s when the district was less Democratic. Being named the "nicest member of Congress" by the Washingtonian magazine does not hurt her chances either.
Update:
In recent months, Capps' election prospects have greatly increased. Although Maldonado may be popular with voters in the San Luis Obispo part of the district, he does not seem popular in fundraising circles. Right before the end of each fundraising quarter, he loaned his campaign $250,000. Capps leads the fundraising race with $1,322,000 to Maldonado's $492,000. This is helpful for Capps because Maldonado is facing a challenge from tea party candidate Chris Mitchum (R). As someone who lived in Santa Barbara for a few years, I became pretty familiar with the voting patterns of the area and besides having a few moderates in Montecito and other parts of Santa Barbara, the rest of the county is extremely conservative and parts feel like Texas. If the top two system did not exist, Maldonado would probably loose because he could not win enough Republicans in the primary but Maldonado could advance to the top two by winning over independents. If Mitchum wants to win though, he needs to step up his fundraising game, he has only $114,000 on hand. Even if he does not win, he will force Maldonado to spend money against him, further depleting Maldonado's money so Capps can have an easier time outspending him during the general.
Status: Likely Democratic
California's 25th Congressional District: Buck McKeon (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 48%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 39%, Whitman 52%
Demographics: 8% African American, 8% Asian, 35% Hispanic, 46% White
Safe Republican
Although Lancaster and Palmdale are trending Democratic quickly, Simi Valley, Santa Clarita and McKeon's popularity will keep this district safely in the Republican column.
California's 26th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 46%, Whitman 47%
Demographics: 6% Asian, 43% Hispanic, 46% White
Hispanic CVAP: 26%
Lean Democratic
Gallegly recently announced his retirement which makes this race easier for Democrats. His district became more Democratic with the addition of Oxnard and his home of Simi Valley was placed in Buck McKeon's (R) district. There are already five Democrats running though. They include Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock (D), retired longshoreman Zeke Ruelas, Oxnard Harbor District President Jess Herrera (D), Westlake Village Businessman David Cruz (D) and Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett (D). Bennett represents Democratic leaning Ventura City as a Supervisor, is popular and well known throughout the district. Cruz and Herrera though are getting support from Hispanic groups and should win support from the district's large Hispanic population in the primary. Pollock is from Republican leaning Moorpark so if he wins the nomination, he could make inroads there. Most pundits agree though that Bennett is the frontrunner in the primary. On the Republican side, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (R) from Thousand Oaks has announced. Other potential candidates include State Senator Tony Strickland (R), and Moorpark City Councilman Keith Millhouse (R). Parks should do well with moderate Republicans while Strickland appeals to the district's more conservative voters.
Update:
So much has changed in the race since I last posted about it. Linda Parks (I) has changed her party affiliation to independent and Steve Bennett (D) has dropped out of the race, worrying the three Democrats in the race would split the field and prevent a clear winner. It looked possible Strickland would face a weak Democrat in the general election until Assmblywoman Julia Browley (D) declared her candidacy for the 26th district. She has raised the most money of the Democrats although it is not as much as Strickland's $782,000. Parks though has only raised $119,000 and had a strange ad where she randomly said, "My favorite ice cream is rocky road." It does not make sense to me why she said that. Brownley though received endorsements from Senators Barbara Boxer (D) and Dianne Feinstein (D) and Brownley is getting a boost from EMILY's List who is sending out a mailer telling Democrats to vote for her. Expect this race to be very close to this finish line.
Status: Tossup
California's 27th Congressional District: Judy Chu (D) vs. David Dreier (R)?
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 55%, Whitman 39%
Demographics: 37% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 29% White
Safe Democratic, Likely Democratic if Dreier runs
The 27th district is a combination of Chu's and Dreier's districts while representing foothill communities currently in Dreier's district and heavily Asian areas such as Monterey Park in Chu's current district. Although Dreier is moderate and popular, the 61% Obama number should be high enough to protect Chu. Also, she is a very strong campaigner and a popular incumbent.
Update:
Dreier decided not to challenge Chu for this seat. Therefore, Chu will have no challenge winning reelection.
Status: Safe Democratic
California's 28th Congressional District: Adam Schiff (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 70%, McCain 26%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 63%, Whitman 30%
Demographics: 14% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 55% White
Safe Democratic
Schiff's district loses Pasadena and gains West Hollywood. His district remains heavily Democratic.
California's 29th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 74%, McCain 23%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 68%, Whitman 24%
Demographics: 8% Asian, 69% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic
The commission created this new district as a Hispanic majority district in the San Fernando Valley. Although the district contains territory from both Reps. Howard Berman's (D) and Brad Sherman's (D) districts, they both decided not to run here (see California's 30th Congressional district.) The frontrunner for the 29th district is Los Angeles City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D). He has received support from important political figures such as California's Assembly Speaker John Perez (D) and Rep. Howard Berman.
Update:
Cardenas is facing no serious opposition so he should win the seat easily.
California's 30th Congressional District: Howard Berman (D) vs. Brad Sherman (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 66%, McCain 31%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 36%
Demographics: 12% Asian, 27% Hispanic, 53% White
Safe Democratic
The commission combined the homes of Reps. Berman and Sherman so there will be a contentious primary in this district. Some pundits have suggested that Sherman should run in the open 26th district in Ventura County in order to avoid a possible primary loss in the 30th district. Although no polls have been released for the primary, Berman has gained many endorsements, with 23 representatives endorsing him compared to two for Sherman (Reps. Judy Chu (D) and Grace Napolitano (D).) It is unclear how many voters will be swayed by all the endorsements. This does not indicate Sherman will lose though. He received the endorsement of Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom (D), State Controller John Chiang (D), former President Bill Clinton (D) and has raised $3.7 million, more than Berman's $2.2 million but Berman is raising money quickly. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) hosted a large fundraiser for Berman recently. This primary will be very close and could attract national attention.
Update:
This race is shaping up to be one of the biggest Dem vs. Dem battles in California. Although Sherman represents 58% of the district, he is still facing Berman who has the high profile endorsements. An April poll showed Sherman ahead 40%-17% with a Republican Tom Reed at 12%. Berman has not released an internal poll showing him ahead and has not released an internal poll at all. Due to California's top two system though, it is possible both Democrats will enter the top two primary so Berman will have more time to raise money and overcome Sherman's 4 million to 2.4 million dollar cash advantage. Sherman has been saving his money though, suggesting he believes Berman and him will enter the top two primary. Expect this race to drag on to November.
Status: Safe Democratic
California's 31st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 56%, McCain 41%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 49%, Whitman 41%
Demographics: 12% African American, 7% Asian, 49% Hispanic, 30% White
Hispanic CVAP: 35%
Lean Democratic
This district represents Republican leaning Rancho Cucamonga and Democratic leaning San Bernardino and Colton. The district as a whole leans Democratic and is trending Democratic as Hispanics continue to move into the district. Although Lewis lives in the new 31st district, he does not represent much territory in it and he may decide to either retire or run in the more conservative 8th district. Rep. Jerry Lewis (R) lives in this district but recently announced his retirement. Rep. Gary Miller (R) who represented eastern Orange County and Diamond Bar in Los Angeles County plans to run here instead. Anyway, Rep. Joe Baca (D) lives in this district but decided to run in the more Democratic 35th district so the Democratic field is open here. Two Democratic candidates, Renea Wickman (D) and Russ Warner (D) have announced plans to run. Wickman is a community activist working with youth and ran unsuccessfully in 2010 for the 63rd Assembly district. Warner is a businessman from Rancho Cucamonga who is more moderate than Wickman is, especially on issues such as immigration. This could be difficult for him in this district with a large Hispanic population. The frontrunner though is Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar (D) who recently announced his candidacy.
Update:
Miller is winning the fundraising war, already raising $1,170,000. Pete Aguilar (D) has only raised $222,000 but the Democratic lean should probably be enough to push him over the top. The fact that Miller is not well known in the area should help Aguilar as well as Miller's ethics issues. Miller also faces a primary challenge now from Republican State Senator Bob Dutton (R) but Dutton's fundraising is far below Miller's and Dutton has received few endorsements so it is unlikely Dutton should advance to the top two. Overall, the district's Democratic lean and trend should push Aguilar over the top but Miller can make it close.
Lean Democratic
California's 32nd Congressional District: Grace Napolitano (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 62%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 15% Asian, 63% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic
Napolitano's district loses her home but I expect her to run here because it contains most of her current district. Dreier's home is here so he may run here but I doubt he would win in a 62% Obama district.
Update:
Dreier does not plan to run here so Napolitano should have an easy race.
California's 33rd Congressional District: Henry Waxman (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 64%, McCain 33%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 55%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 13% Asian, 11% Hispanic, 69% White
Safe Democratic
Waxman's district gains large portions of the current 36th district along the coast. It remains heavily Democratic and upscale.
California's 34th Congressional District: Xavier Beccara (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 77%, McCain 19%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 76%, Whitman 16%
Demographics: 20% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 9% White
Safe Democratic
Beccara's district does not undergo major changes. It remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.
California's 35th Congressional District: Joe Baca (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 64%, McCain 32%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 33%
Demographics: 7% African American, 69% Hispanic, 16% White
Hispanic CVAP: 52%
Safe Democratic
This district should be too Democratic to elect a Republican representative but the Democratic primary will be close. Rep. Joe Baca (D) who represented parts of the district plans to run here and so does State Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod (D). Both representatives are popular and McLeod defeated Baca's son in her 2006 State Senate primary.
Update:
When this district was drawn, McLeod announced, "I'm in I'm in!" She may be in but it does not look like she will win. Baca has outraised her 2-1 and he represents 61% of the district so most of the district's residents are familiar with him already. Also, McLeod does not have many endorsements while Baca does. Although McLeod is well known in the district, it may not be enough for her to beat Baca.
Safe Democratic
California's 36th Congressional District: Mary Bono Mack (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 49%
Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 44% White
Hispanic CVAP: 27%
Lean Republican
The district voted for Obama and is trending Democratic but Bono Mack is a very popular representative and is moderate. Also, openly gay Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougent (D) has not made plans to run for the seat although he would be a strong candidate. He ran in 2010 and performed well against Bono Mack. The Democrats found a candidate to challenge Bono Mack though. Dr. Raul Ruiz (D), a physician has announced his candidacy and he is the first Hispanic candidate to challenge Bono Mack for her seat in a district with a large and fast growing Hispanic population. Bono Mack's moderate positions and popularity make her formidable though.
Update:
Ruiz has been a great fundraiser, outraising Bono-Mack last quarter although Bono-Mack still retains the COH advantage by nearly 2-1. Still though, the COH advantage may matter less now that the DCCC has taken interest in this race. Ruiz is a strong candidate and if the DCCC support can boost him up in this district, Democrats could have a strong shot at winning.
Lean Republican
California's 37th Congressional District: Karen Bass (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 84%, McCain 13%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 79%, McCain 15%
Demographics: 25% African American, 9% Asian, 39% Hispanic, 24% White
African American CVAP: 34%, Hispanic CVAP, 21%
Safe Democratic
Bass retains most of her current territory and represents heavily Democratic areas with a large African American CVAP. She should be safe here.
California's 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 35%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 57%, Whitman 35%
Demographics: 14% Asian, 61% Hispanic, 19% White
Hispanic CVAP: 51%
Safe Democratic
Although this district is too Democratic to elect a Republican representative, there will be a competitive primary here. State Senator Ron Calderon (D) is challenging Sanchez here. Although Sanchez is a popular representative, she has represented only a small part of the district while she is unfamiliar with the voters in the Montebello area where Calderon lives. She needs to introduce herself to voters in that area. I expect she will receive support from other congressional representatives though so she may win.
Update:
Calderon decided not to run. Sanchez has a clear field.
Safe Democratic
California's 39th Congressional District: Ed Royce (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 47%, McCain 49%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 38%, Whitman 54%
Demographics: 29% Asian, 33% Hispanic, 34% White
Safe Republican
Although this district may be trending Democratic because Democratic voters are moving into it, this district remains Republican at a local level. Reps. Miller and Royce were both drawn into the district but Miller decided to run in CA-31 instead so Royce has the field to himself.
Update:
School Board member Jay Chen (D) is running here and is a strong candidate but the district's strong Republican lean at a local level (and statewide too, Whitman won here by 16 points,) should prevent Chen from becoming competitive. Later in the decade though, Democrats may have a real shot at winning this district.
Safe Republican
California's 40th Congressional District: Lucille Roybal Allard (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 77%, McCain 19%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 73%, Whitman 19%
Demographics: 6% African American, 86% Hispanic, 5% White
Hispanic CVAP: 73%
Safe Democratic
Allard's district becomes the most heavily Hispanic district in the country with an 86% Hispanic population. It also remains heavily Democratic.
California's 41st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 59%, McCain 38%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 52%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 10% African American, 6% Asian, 56% Hispanic, 26% White
Hispanic CVAP: 37%
Likely Democratic
The commission created this new Hispanic majority district combining communities of interest in northern Riverside County. The district also voted for Obama and Brown by double digit margins so Democrats have an advantage here. The Democrat running is openly gay Riverside Community College School Board Member Mark Takano (D). Takano ran for this seat under similar lines in 1992 and lost by 550 votes when the area was less Democratic. Riverside County Supervisor John Taviglione (R) who represents most of the district is challenging Takano. Although Taviglione is popular and well known, the 59% Obama number in this Democratic trending district and Takano's campaign skills may be too high for him to overcome.
Update:
The candidates are nearly tied in fundraising from last quarter. The DCCC has been working hard though to help Takano which increases the Democrats' chances of winning here.
Likely Democratic
California's 42nd Congressional District: Ken Calvert (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 43%, McCain 54%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 56%
Demographics: 9% Asian, 36% Hispanic, 47% White
Safe Republican
In 2008, Calvert faced a tough race not only because of his ethics problems but also because the district was trending Democratic quickly and voted for Obama. In this new map though, Calvert is much safer by losing Democratic Riverside and gaining more Republican parts of Riverside County.
California's 43rd Congressional District: Maxine Waters (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 75%, McCain 22%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 69%, Whitman 24%
Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Asian, 46% Hispanic, 15% White
African American CVAP 33%, Hispanic CVAP 29%
Safe Democratic
Waters's district remains heavily Democratic but the Hispanic CVAP is increasing and is almost as high as the African American CVAP. This creates the possibility of a Hispanic candidate challenging Waters in the primary and winning due to support from Hispanics. Waters's ethics problems though create an even larger opening for a primary challenger too.
Update:
No strong Democrat has emerged to challenge Waters so she will remain for at least another two years in Congress.
Safe Democratic
California's 44th Congressional District: Laura Richardson (D) vs. Janice Hahn (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 81%, McCain 15%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 77%, Whitman 15%
Demographics: 17% African American, 68% Hispanic, 7% White
African American CVAP 28%, Hispanic CVAP 49%
Safe Democratic
This district will see a tight primary race for the Democrats. Only a small portion of Hahn's district is in the new 44th but Hahn has a strong shot at winning not only because she is popular with the district's many working class voters but also because Richardson has ethics problems. Hahn is a former city councilmember from Los Angeles and represented large portions of the district in the city council. A poll showed her leading Richardson 47-26 but the poll was conducted in August so it may be outdated.
Update:
Hahn recently received the endorsement of the California Labor Federation which is important in this district with a strong union presence. Also, she's been endorsed by the California Democratic Party and is even making inroads among the district's African American community, although Richardson is African American. Hahn also outraised Richardson more than 2-1 last quarter. Due to the top two system, this race should continue to November but the June primary will show where the candidates stand in the polls.
Safe Democratic
California's 45th Congressional District: John Campbell (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 51%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 34%, Whitman 59%
Demographics: 21% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 56% White
Safe Republican
Campbell's district loses territory on the Orange County coast and gains more conservative towns inland such as Lake Forest. Although Irvine is Democratic leaning, the rest of the district leans Republican and should keep this district strongly in the Republican column.
Update:
The Democratic mayor of Irvine Suhkee Kang (D) will challenge Campbell. Irvine makes up more than 25% of the district so Kang is well known to many voters in the district. Campbell though will be a hard incumbent to defeat because he has raised over $1 million. Also, the district may have been close on the Presidential level but on the statewide 2010 Gubernatorial race, Whitman won this district by 25 points which shows this district still votes heavily Republican at a local level. At the end of the decade though, a strong candidate like Kang could run a very competitive race. Since Kang is a strong candidate, I am moving the ranking to Likely Republican.
Likely Republican
California's 46th Congressional District: Loretta Sanchez (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 12% Asian, 67% Hispanic, 18% White
Safe Democratic
Sanchez's district remains similar to its current form; heavily Hispanic and Democratic.
California's 47th Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 58%, McCain 39%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 50%, Whitman 42%
Demographics: 8% African American, 21% Asian, 34% Hispanic, 34% White
Likely Democratic
State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D) is facing Long Beach City Councilmember Gary DeLong (R) in this district combining the city of Long Beach with some Orange County communities such as Garden Grove. As of last October though, DeLong had outraised Lowenthal but the district has a large Democratic base and if Obama motivates the Democratic base, Lowenthal should receive a large boost and be able to win.
Update:
Lowenthal's position seems a bit stronger now. He has started to raise money although he still trails DeLong. The June Primary will be a good barometer on how strong Lowenthal is in the district.
Likely Democratic
California's 48th Congressional District: Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 46%, McCain 51%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 35%, Whitman 58%
Demographics: 17% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 59% White
Safe Republican
Rohrabacher's district loses the entire Los Angeles County portion and gains more of the Orange County coast. It remains Republican and safe for him.
California's 49th Congressional District: Darrell Issa (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 49%, McCain 47%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 37%, Whitman 55%
Demographics: 7% Asian, 26% Hispanic, 62% White
Safe Republican
Issa's district becomes more Democratic by gaining Carlsbad and Del Mar which were formerly in Bilbray's district. Issa's district still remains safe for him but if Democratic trends continue and Issa retires, this district could become competitive. Bilbray faced competitive races in 2006 and 2008 in a district with similar territory.
California's 50th Congressional District: Duncan Hunter (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 39%, McCain 58%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 30%, Whitman 66%
Demographics: 30% Hispanic, 59% White
Safe Republican
Hunter should be safe in this district representing inland San Diego County. It was Whitman's best district in California and McCain's best district south of Bakersfield.
California's 51st Congressional District: Open
Presidential Data: Obama 65%, McCain 32%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 58%, Whitman 31%
Demographics: 7% African American, 8% Asian, 68% Hispanic, 14% White
Safe Democratic
Rep. Bob Filner (D) represented most of this district in Congress but the seat is open because he plans to run for mayor. State Sen. Juan Vargas (D) is running to replace him. Vargas has an advantage because he is well known in the San Diego portion of the district and his State Senate district covers almost the entire new 51st district. Denise Duchney (D), a former State Senator from Vargas's district is running too so there will be a competitive primary for this seat that should vote Democratic in the general election.
Update:
Vargas seems to have the lead in this district, winning endorsements from important groups such as the California Democratic Party. It remains to be seen whether Vargas will advance into the top two with a Republican candidate or Duchney.
Safe Democratic
California's 52nd Congressional District: Brian Bilbray (R)
Presidential Data: Obama 55%, McCain 43%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 43%, Whitman 50%
Demographics: 18% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 62% White
Tossup
Bilbray's district still represents northern San Diego City but the district suddenly jumps from 50% Obama to 55% Obama. He now faces three strong Democratic challengers: Assemblywoman Lori Saldana (D), businessman Bob Nascenzi (D) and Port of San Diego Commission Chairman Scott Peters (D). Most pundits believe that Saldana and Peters will be the Democratic frontrunners for the seat. Bilbray though has fended off difficult challenges for the seat in 2006 and 2008 but the new district is more Democratic so he should worry.
Update:
Saldana and Peters have become the two main rivals for the spot to challenge Bilbray and they are in a close fight. Peters has the money advantage, outraising Saldana 3-1 in the 1st Quarter of 2012. They both have strong endorsements too, Peters recently received an endorsement from the San Diego CityBeat for example. Saldana may lack cash but she is more well known in the 52nd district because she represented large portions of it. She recently released an internal poll showing Bilbray with 32% but Saldana at 18% and Peters at 10%. 43% of the voters are undecided though so Peters has room to grow and internal polls tend to lean toward the candidate who conducted them but Peters has not released an internal poll to counter Saldana's, suggesting Saldana may have a lead. Also, Bob Filner endorsed Peters and Saldana responded by saying, "That's one failing campaign trying to prop up another failing campaign." Then once she realized her gaffe, she then endorsed Filner for mayor while Peters could not return the favor because of his ties to the two other mayoral candidates. Those other candidates are a Republican and an Independent so this hurts Peters among Democrats but it could help him win over independents.
Tossup
California's 53rd Congressional District: Susan Davis (D)
Presidential Data: Obama 61%, McCain 36%
Gubernatorial Data: Brown 52%, Whitman 40%
Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Asian, 32% Hispanic, 43% White
Safe Democratic
Davis’s district becomes less Democratic as it gains some San Diego suburbs. The 61% Obama number though should keep her safe.
